A tight New Hampshire governor's race has the potential to shape the energy policy of a state that has traditionally taken a more cautious approach to the energy transition than its New England neighbors.

The two leading candidates running to replace Republican Gov. Chris Sununu — Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig — offer contrasting visions of renewable energy development that could either bring New Hampshire more in line with states such as Massachusetts and Maine or continue their predecessor's independent streak.

Since taking office in 2017, Sununu has pursued an energy policy he frames as more market-driven and technology-neutral than neighboring states and has called Massachusetts' renewable energy mandates an example of "bad energy policy," leading to higher rates.

Ayotte led Craig by 1 percentage point, 42% to 41%, with 14% undecided, in a poll of 600 likely New Hampshire voters by UMass Lowell/YouGov taken Oct. 2 through Oct. 10.

Governing approaches

The Craig campaign said New Hampshire is "falling further behind" on the energy transition and has blamed reliance on fossil fuels for the state's jump in power costs.

New Hampshire's power prices rose 51.3% between 2018 and 2023, more than in Massachusetts and Connecticut but less than in Maine, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. New Hampshire ranked 48th for overall renewable capacity in the second quarter of 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Currently, New Hampshire law calls for a renewable portfolio standard of 25.2% by 2025.

Craig, the Democratic candidate, previously served as mayor of New Hampshire's largest city, Manchester, where she supported development of a 3.3-MW solar array by Kearsarge Energy LP, a Massachusetts-based developer of small solar projects, which the candidate points to as evidence of a commitment to renewables and ability to lead the state's energy transition.

Republican candidate Ayotte, who previously served as New Hampshire attorney general and as a US senator, has largely run on continuing Sununu's legacy, including an "all of the above" approach to energy.

In the US Senate, where she served from 2011 to 2017, Ayotte helped organize a GOP working group to promote a party agenda dealing with climate change, breaking with many fellow Republicans. Ayotte was also the first Senate Republican to back the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.

Ayotte has voiced support for bringing small modular nuclear reactors to the state. New Hampshire is home to the 1,251-MW Seabrook nuclear plant, majority-owned by NextEra Energy Inc., which produces more than half the electricity in the state. Natural gas produces another quarter, according to the New Hampshire Department of Energy.

New Hampshire is "set up well for nuclear," said Alexis Abramson, current dean of engineering at Dartmouth College and incoming dean at Columbia University's Columbia Climate School, adding that the state could "remove some of the regulatory burdens that might actually hinder the market innovation in the nuclear space."

The Ayotte campaign has pledged to "cut the red tape and minimize government barriers to private-sector innovation for cost-effective energy solutions."

Sam Evans-Brown, executive director of renewable energy advocacy group Clean Energy NH, said in an interview that "some sort of deregulatory agenda could actually be a really interesting way to try to tackle New England's unique energy challenges."

Support by both candidates for renewables has some experts encouraged about the state's clean energy market, regardless of who wins.

Under a Craig governorship, Evans-Brown said he would expect a "more traditional New England Democratic-style approach" that could include carbon reduction targets and incentives for electric vehicle charging and net-metering.

The Craig campaign has not identified a specific emissions reductions target or goal for the state, but were she to win, Evans-Brown said Republicans are likely to maintain control of the state Senate and would prevent passage of any sort of "sweeping climate law." Republicans currently have a 14-10 advantage in the state Senate; all 24 seats are up for election in November.

New Hampshire last released a climate plan in 2009 with a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990s levels by 2050. By comparison, the 2021 Massachusetts climate law requires cutting emissions 50% below 1990s levels by 2030, 75% by 2040 and reaching net-zero emissions by midcentury.

New Hampshire needs "more analysis" to create an emissions goal that works for it, Abramson said, adding, "A lot of the back-end work hasn't matured yet in our analysis of what we can do in the state versus Maine and Massachusetts, who have been doing this for a while."

Net metering

Sununu has repeatedly vetoed bipartisan legislation that would have increased from 1 MW to up to 5 MW the maximum nameplate capacity of customer-owned renewable generators eligible to participate in net metering, arguing the bills would have hurt ratepayers. That has drawn criticism from environmental groups.

"There is a strong correlation between net metering and the availability of net metering for consumers and the adoption of renewables, mostly solar," Abramson said.

Both Craig and Ayotte have expressed support for expanding net metering. If elected, Craig pledged to expand net metering to the 5-MW nameplate capacity vetoed by Sununu.

Ayotte has not identified a specific capacity goal. In a rare energy policy break from Sununu, she said she would be "open to looking at" net metering expansion but wants to "make sure that we don't pass additional costs on to ratepayers," the New Hampshire Bulletin reported in August.

Offshore wind

Sununu has described himself as a "champion of offshore wind," signing an executive order in 2019 to prepare the state for development of the resource. Since then, however, New Hampshire has not taken the steps to develop offshore wind that other coastal New England states have.

The US Interior Department in September announced a sale for the Gulf of Maine offshore wind lease area, which includes potential sites off New Hampshire's coastline. If fully developed, the Gulf of Maine lease area could generate 13 GW, after being scaled down in response to concerns from the region's prized fishing industry.

During a Republican primary debate, Ayotte said as governor she would actively fight against federal offshore wind projects off the state's coastline, adding that the Maine offshore wind projects have "lots of taxpayer dollars in it" and a "questionable" return on investment.

The GOP candidate also pointed to the turbine failure in July at Avangrid Inc.'s Vineyard Offshore Wind Project off of Massachusetts, which forced beaches to be closed when debris washed up, and concerns from the fishing industry as informing her opposition to offshore wind development in the Gulf of Maine.

Craig wants to take a "proactive" role in developing offshore wind in the Gulf of Maine to ensure New Hampshire does not "miss the boat on a multibillion-dollar industry off our coast," offering opportunities to "lower energy costs, and bring high tech manufacturing jobs to New England," according to the campaign website.

If New Hampshire does pursue offshore wind as a resource, a joint procurement with other New England states is likely, similar to how Massachusetts and Rhode Island recently executed a nearly 3-GW joint offshore wind selection.

"If there's going to be some sort of procurement in the style of what southern New England has done, it would have to be something that was done jointly, I would imagine, in which multiple states get together, say, Maine and New Hampshire get together and really bargain hard to get the lowest possible price," Evans-Brown said.