Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to MediaTalk, a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the evolving media landscape. Today I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan research analyst John Paul O'Sullivan. He is based in our London office and specializes in covering global TV networks in Europe and also keeps a tab on sports media. How you doing today, J.P.?

JP O'Sullivan: Good, thank you. And hello from across the pond.

Reynolds: J.P. is going to share his thoughts about media, viewership and advertising around a couple of major international soccer tournaments. Euro 2024 that starts on June 14 from Germany and Copa América 2024, which begins in the US on June 20. He's also going to ask me to weigh in on the events and their coverage back here in the States. A lot of ground to cover. Let's kick it off. Where does the European Championships rank on the European sportscape? How excited is Europe? How excited are you, J.P., for Euro 2024?

O'Sullivan: Yes, this is the largest sporting event for TV audiences after the FIFA World Cup. However, I actually expect the Euros to start stronger than the last World Cup, which was initially hampered by an unfamiliar winter scheduling and, you could argue, a less appealing opening fixture. It was a tournament that certainly came to life in the knockout phase. With regards to the Euros, it's a highly competitive event. Eight of the top 10 nations based on the FIFA rankings. Plenty of historic rivalries among both teams and players from both international and domestic games. And I think it's important to remember it's a very intense event. So it's 51 matches in just over 4.5 weeks. And it's all played out in primetime in a European summer.

Reynolds: Last time the tournament was delayed by the pandemic. In 2021, J.P., I'm sorry to remind you, Italy topped England on penalties to wear the crown. Cristiano Ronaldo is playing for the sixth time and presumably the final time for Portugal, which won the tournament 2016. What are you looking forward to the most this time around?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, it's a tournament that has generated surprises over its history and often big sides will fall in the group stages, but ultimately it's all about those big games in the later stages, where interest really starts to intensify, particularly in the home markets of any size that are doing well.

Reynolds: Who are the favorites?

O'Sullivan: England have universally been prized as favorites, which you can follow the logic. It's a very talented young squad, but sitting alongside many seasoned players arguably at the peak of their careers. And they're guided by their captain Harry Kane, who's familiar with German domestic football after a successful season by Munich, which could only help.

Reynolds: That makes sense. What about Spain and France, which was the runner-up to the '22 World Cup?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, you can certainly add those two to the host Germany and England as the four front-runners if you like, but certainly Belgium offers something as well.

Reynolds: Back here in the States, Fox Sports has the English rights for the tournament for the first time, and TelevisaUnivision Inc. has the Spanish language rights. Big FOX (US), the broadcast network, is going to air 29 matches, and FOX Sports 1 (US) has 17. Interestingly, five of the matches have been sub-licensed to fuboTV Inc.. And ironically, that makes the virtual provider/programmer the only outlet to televise all 51 of the Euro 2024 matches here in the States. Things are a little bit different in Europe from a broadcast perspective. Can you give us a sense for the lineups on the continent?

O'Sullivan: Firstly, if you look at the numbers for the last Euros, the revenue mix is approximately 60% rights fees, 30% commercial, which includes sponsorships, and the other 10% is ticketing and hospitality. Over €1 billion in broadcast fees last time. So as an event, it's not as globally lucrative as some of the domestic leagues, but this is primarily a free-to-air event in Europe for two reasons. Firstly, many of the markets give their national side's games protected status. The broadcast must be available to everyone across the country. And secondly, UEFA recognized the ability of these national broadcasters in each of the markets that are very distinct to each of the markets to draw in more casual viewers, which helped create these mass audiences, if you like. So pay TV or streamers, they can bid, they can get involved, but they would have to sub-license games to be compliant. But broadly speaking, when you look down that very long list of broadcast partners for the event, it's national commercial or government-funded networks that will show the games on the continent. But there's more room for the streamers and the big US media corporations elsewhere.

Reynolds: It's also a bit of a home-field or home-side advantage if it's on the national broadcast, I would think. Your sense overall for ad sales against the tournament?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, the European broadcasters will certainly welcome this sporting summer with the Euros followed by the Olympics in France, even those who don't have rights. The major European TV groups have had a rough time in the last few years, and this is due to economic uncertainty, inflation issues, and it's actually been more pronounced in Germany, who benefit from hosting the event. So the hope is bigger campaigns and improved pricing. Some recent guidance from ITV PLC, who share the rights here in the UK, they have suggested Q2 ad results could be up 12% year over year, assisted by the Euros. Now, let's bear in mind Q2 only captures the first two weeks of the tournament. They will really benefit once again in Q3 if England or even Scotland do well and go all the way. And they will be hoping for big audiences in the latter stages, which are in early July, all the way through into mid-July.

Reynolds: Sure. And overall ratings, what kind of viewership did we see for the 2021 tournament?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, looking at the figures that UEFA put out, globally, live matches, we're averaging around 100 million viewers. So it's rolling Super Bowl audiences, that sort of magnitude. And then the final was north of 300 million as well.

Reynolds: That's really big, maybe not World Cup level…

O'Sullivan: Yeah, it's certainly up there. And I would say larger than, say, the Champions League final for an alternative comparison. But on a national level, it depends on who is competing as finalists, and whoever the finalists are, you can guarantee that a majority of TV viewers back home will be watching. So the clear example, when England was in the 2020/21 final, the peak was over 40 million — that's across TV and online. So that's clearly a majority of the population. Yeah, I'm not sure what the numbers were like in the US.

Reynolds: Maybe not that big, but over the course of Euro 2021, ESPN Inc.'s network averaged about 1.36 million viewers. That was up 31% from 1.04 million from viewers in 2016. The Italy-England final in 2021 averaged 6.49 million viewers, up 43%. Looking at things as it goes ahead, Fox may be in a position to build on those numbers this time around because TelevisaUnivision has elected to stream the entire tournament save for the final, which will be on Univision and cable sports network TUDN (US). Now all but the final will be streaming. It's going to be a different environment here in the States.

O'Sullivan: It's interesting that Televisa have gone in that direction. We'll see. Globally, anyone operating a streaming platform knows the power of exclusive content. Have you got any opinions on the strategy here?

Reynolds: Yeah. I was told by Olek Loewenstein, who's TelevisaUnivision's global president of sports, that the streaming service VIX has been a home for much of the company's Champions League coverage. And they want to maintain that European football programming continuity if you will. That's only going to serve to build up the service's subscriber base. So yeah, I guess it makes sense — but as an old timer, TV still rules in this household. Anyway, let's switch kits a little bit to Copa América 2024, which kicks off on June 20. It's the 10 CONMEBOL nations from South America topped by defending World Cup champions, Argentina; perennial power Brazil; and Colombia, which is FIFA's 12th ranked men's side. There's also six teams from CONCACAF, including the US, Mexico and Canada, which together will host the 2026 World Cup. J.P., what's the interest level for Copa América in UK and Europe? We mentioned Ronaldo before. This could be the last international tournament from this generation's other transcendent player, Lionel Messi. There have to be a lot of people interested in watching him play.

O'Sullivan: Indeed. Yeah, there is interest in Copa América. So many players belonging to European club sides. But also, from an industry perspective, the CONMEBOL strategic partnership is really interesting. It seems a sensible way to make the size in the region more competitive and obviously in the longer term, there are more commercial opportunities — even the possibility of a pan regional club tournament akin to the Champions League could emerge. Just speculating here. But ultimately they're clearly assessing ways to be as commercially successful as are the dominant federation in commercial terms.

On Messi, yes, certainly he remains a huge, huge draw in Europe. I expect sizable consumption of short-form content but restricted live audience numbers for the Copa América, primarily due to the time zones. I think this will be a tournament that will be passively followed rather than directly consumed. But certainly I think the average football fan will know what's going on and consume content in some form.

Reynolds: Yeah, you answered my question there, J.P. A lot of the matches are going to start here at nine o'clock. We're talking about in Europe overnight or even early morning start. Here in the States, TelevisaUnivision's got 21 matches that will air on their lead broadcast network Univision, including the opening between Argentina and Canada on June 20. The quarterfinals, the semifinals, the third place match, and the championship game are scheduled for the broadcast network. Eleven other matches will air on the company's second US broadcast network, Unimas; and cable sports network TUDN will simulcast all the matches while VIX is going to stream the entire slate. As for Fox, they're going to have all the matches on TV and they're accessible digitally via the Fox Sports app. Fox Sports 1 has the first match with Argentina-Canada.

O'Sullivan: Obviously, Copa América in 2021 didn't have the same lineup in terms of participants. So I just wondered whether you see an upside this time around over what happened last time?

Reynolds: Yeah. In '21, Argentina, they couldn't have asked for a better matchup, right? Argentina beat the host country Brazil and Univision averaged 3.5 million watches, which was up 30% from Telemundo's coverage of Brazil-Peru in 2019. Over Copa América's 28 games last time around, Univision networks averaged 1.1 million viewers. That nearly matched Telemundo's delivery of 1.2 million, which also included digital watching from the 2019 event. For its part, Fox Sports 1 aired the championship and netted almost 2 million viewers for the final. And its overall tournament coverage averaged 310,000 across the various Fox outlooks. I think what Fox is looking for this time, J.P., is more of a comparison to what happened with 2016. That was the Copa América Centenario, marking the 100th anniversary of CONMEBOL. And again, in 2016, it was all 10 of the South American nations and six from CONCACAF, including the US and Mexico, with all the matches taking place here in US stadiums. That event averaged just under 1 million viewers across Fox. Chile won the final over Argentina on penalties and that drew 2.5 million watchers on Fox Sports 1. The US lost the third place game to Colombia 1-0.

We're getting to the end here. All right. So J.P., it's July 14th. It's the finals of Euro 2024 and Copa América 2024. I'm saying France and Brazil raise the trophies. Last word to you, who are you taking?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, we've all run the scenarios. England-France, it looks certain to be one of the semifinals. I think that the winner of that match will provide the ultimate winner, in my opinion, and Argentina to take the Copa América.

Reynolds: All right. We'll see if Messi can do it. There you have it. That concludes this episode of MediaTalk. I just wanted to thank Kagan's J.P. O'Sullivan for joining us from London and sharing his views and analysis of the summer's two big soccer tournaments, Euro 2024 and Copa América 2024. Appreciate it, J.P.

O'Sullivan: Great. Thanks, Mike.

Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. We'll catch up soon on the next edition of MediaTalk.