Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
Our "Risky Credits" series focuses on corporate issuers rated 'CCC+' and lower. Because many defaults are of companies in those categories, ratings with negative outlooks or on CreditWatch negative are even more important to monitor.
NORTH AMERICA
Last week, rating activity was still tilted positive with the number of upgrades more than twice that of downgrades. Upgrades included two sovereigns, Albania and Aruba; as well as two Spain-based banks, which were upgraded due to stronger industry dynamics.
Upgrades also included a rising star--the seventh of 2025--Italy-based payment services provider Nexi SpA, which was upgraded on its positive deleveraging trajectory.
There was one default last week, Canada-based Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. was downgraded to ‘SD’ (selective default) on a refinancing transaction that we consider as distressed and tantamount to a default.
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Rating activity continued its positive trend despite market volatility. Upgrades (39) outnumbered downgrades (28) for the second consecutive month.
Weakest links dropped by 10 in February--reaching the lowest level since October 2022. The number of defaults as the reason for removals from the weakest links list remains limited, accounting for less than 30% in February.
Despite February recording the first fallen angels of the year, rising stars continued to outnumber fallen angels. However, potential rising stars declined, for the second month in a row, to 19.
The default count eased in February to seven, driven by a decline in the U.S. Meanwhile, monthly defaults in Europe outnumbered the U.S. for the first time since September 2022.
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