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Primary insurers started 2023 from a position of relative strength, mainly thanks to the post-pandemic recovery, and despite some capital depletion in 2022. Macroeconomic factors, particularly capital market volatility, inflation, and interest rates/credit spreads are key risks over the next 12 months. Projected capital levels and relative operating performance will be two key determinants of insurance credit risk over the coming year. The life and the property/casualty (P/C) sectors will see their pricing power and competitive positions tested. Despite high inflation, we expect that the pricing power of most rated P/C insurers will allow for underwriting profitability in 2023.

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