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Economic Research

Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.

Global

Q3 2024 Global Economic Update: The Policy Rate Descent Begins

The long-awaited policy rate easing cycle has begun in some advanced economies as inflation continues to decline toward target; the U.S. Federal Reserve remains on hold for now, and some emerging markets are dialing back their monetary easing as a result.

Our soft-landing narrative remains valid as labor markets remain tight and consumer spending on services remains robust; indeed, Europe has already landed and a recovery is taking hold.

Our GDP forecasts are broadly unchanged from the previous round with growth in some of the more open emerging markets revised upward; the risks around our baseline include a sharp reduction in labor demand and spillovers from a strong U.S. dollar, as well as geopolitics.

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