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Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.

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Global Economic Outlook Q2 2025: Spike In U.S. Policy Uncertainty Dampens Growth Prospects

Heightened U.S. policy uncertainty, mainly related to tariffs, is dominating the global macro narrative.

Soft data such as confidence and sentiment have plunged, and U.S. market valuations have retreated. Activity and the hard data have held up so far, but all eyes are on U.S. consumption and employment.

Our GDP growth forecasts have fallen since our previous round. This is driven by U.S. tariff effects and spillovers from a steeper decline in U.S. sequential growth. European growth is lower this year but will improve from 2026 on higher defense and infrastructure spending. China's outlook is stable.

The risks to our baseline are firmly on the downside. We are watching the effects on demand from protracted U.S. policy uncertainty. Should these materialize, the result would be a material slowdown in growth.

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