(Editor's Note: This research roundup features a curated compilation of the key takeaways from our most up-to-date thought leadership. This edition has been updated from the last roundup on June 6, 2025.)
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Key Takeaways
- The outcomes of the start-stop nature of ongoing tariff policies and trade tensions will affect credit quality across the global automotive sector—prompting automakers firstly and suppliers later on to absorb extra costs and putting profit margins and cash flow generation under pressure. OEMs and suppliers are inevitably likely to pass at least some of the cost of tariffs through to consumers via higher prices but are unlikely to completely offset weaker sales volumes.
- Aging trends will hit GDP growth in Southeast Asia and require additional resources to support welfare. There will be a greater requirement for resources to address aging; for example, households will increasingly call on governments to provide adequate pensions and health care to the aged. Economies in the region will benefit from cheaper capital-- savings rates will rise while individuals save for retirement; economies will also be hit by weakening growth in domestic spending.
- Smartphones and PCs are the most exposed to U.S. tariff risk among tech companies that produce in Asia. This is because these segments rely heavily on tariff-vulnerable markets to produce; and the U.S. market makes up a third of global PC shipments for some Asia producers. We think companies can pass on at least some of the cost to end-buyers. Many have also diversified their supply chains in recent years, which also acts as a shield.
In this edition of Instant Insights, our key takeaways from recent articles include the following: net-zero transition hurdles due to rise in geoeconomic risks, AI accessibility, aging trends in Southeast Asia, and the effect of tariffs on global automakers, the Asian tech sector, Ireland’s economy and corporate sectors, banks in China, and Swiss cantons. We dive into sovereign debt liability management operations, North American investor-owned regulated utilities, key takeaways from annual North American Insurance Conference, insurers in EMEA, margin reduction in China’s auto industry, Indian corporates, and Australian banks. We also feature Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights, Canada macroeconomic snapshot, move towards free markets in China, the impact of New World Development Co. Ltd.’s coupon deferral on Hong Kong developers and banks, Spain and Italy’s water networks, Switzerland’s too-big-to-fail framework, pooled ground lease securitizations, BSL CLO primer, China local governments, and transportation infrastructure activity estimates, and public finance rating activity in the U.S.
S&P Global Ratings periodically updates this article, which contains an edited compilation of key takeaways from our most up-to-date thought leadership organized by sector, region/country, and publication date (see table 1).
Table 1
Key Takeaways From Our Most Recent Reports
Credit conditions
1. Global Credit Conditions Special Update: U.S.-China Tariff De-Escalation Brings Some Temporary Relief, May 15, 2025
Alexandre Birry, Paris, +44 20-7176 7108, alexandre.birry@spglobal.com
- In another twist, the U.S. and China sharply reduced bilateral tariffs on May 12, and enacted a 90-day pause to help facilitate a broad-based agreement.
- Market reaction was positive, but policy uncertainty remains high. We caution that more progress is needed to return to a semblance of trade policy normalization.
- The latest U.S.-China tariff moves are growth positive and, assuming they hold, would raise our GDP growth forecasts closer to our previous, March 27, 2025, forecast round.
- The global trade environment will continue to weigh on credit conditions even if some tail risks have eased, for now.
2. Global Credit Conditions Special Update: Ongoing Reshuffling, April 11, 2025
Alexandre Birry, Paris, +44 20-7176 7108, alexandre.birry@spglobal.com
- Trade tensions are threatening what has been a favorable credit conditions environment for most borrowers. The April 2 tariff announcements by the U.S.--and the subsequent escalation in the trade conflict between the U.S. and China--went far beyond what financial markets had imagined and exceeded our previous assumptions. If the paused U.S. tariffs are ultimately implemented in full, the economic fallout would be broad and deep.
- Market volatility and increasing investor risk aversion pose the most imminent risks to credit in this environment. Borrowers are having to pay up for financing and, worse, some lower-rated borrowers could be shut out of the capital markets.
- President Trump's 90-day pause of most tariffs didn't remove the uncertainty around what could ultimately occur. Unresolved trade tensions as the partial pause approaches its end could have a visible impact on credit quality.
3. Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Special Update: U.S.-China Ties In Uncharted Territory, April 15, 2025
Eunice Tan, Singapore, +65-6530-6418, eunice.tan@spglobal.com
- Asia-Pacific credit conditions to deteriorate: The recent escalation in China-U.S. relations and uncertain U.S. trade policy are hitting growth and confidence in Asia-Pacific. With market volatility persisting, tighter financing conditions will compound liquidity strains. Taken together, these developments are negative for Asia-Pacific credit.
- Tariff risks linger: The threat and imposition of tariffs by the U.S. will slow global trade and confidence. The region's dependency on exports with China and the U.S. will have an outsized hit on manufacturers and small economies. Should the tariffs announced on April 2, 2025 resume for economies ex-China, the geopolitical and economic fallout will be deep.
- China's growth falters: Persistent tariffs on Chinese exports reduce competitiveness and new business investments. Real estate challenges and a gloomier backdrop will sap confidence further. Chinese exporters could cut prices to offload excess capacity. Pain among Asia-Pacific domestic manufacturers could intensify, hitting margins.
- Contagion risk spreads: U.S. trade policy uncertainty is causing risk aversion. In a flight to safety, lenders are demanding higher-risk premiums and turning selective. Riskier assets are seeing tighter financing access. Should sharp asset-repricing occur, it could worsen market volatility and constrict capital raising (even for investment grade issuers).
4. Credit Conditions North America Special Update: Tariff Turmoil, April 17, 2025
David C Tesher, New York, + 212-438-2618, david.tesher@spglobal.com
- The intensifying global trade tensions—including the escalation in trade conflict between the U.S. and China—are weighing on credit conditions in North America amid slowing economic activity and heightened investor risk-aversion.
- Sharply higher tariffs are a top concern for corporate borrowers, threatening to hurt profits for those exposed to imports and international markets.
- We estimate the chance of a U.S. recession at 35%, as price pressures and tariff uncertainty erode business and consumer sentiment and outlays. A sharper-than expected economic downturn in the region could cause more severe credit stress.
Artificial Intelligence
5. AI For Accessibility And Accessibility For AI, June 11, 2025
Miriam Fernandez, CFA, Madrid, + 34917887232, miriam.fernandez@spglobal.com
- AI can enhance individuals' access to society and work by improving the usability of digital content and physical environments, enabling individuals, particularly those with disabilities, to participate more fully in their communities.
- Improving the accessibility of AI, and thus its usability, for the widest possible audience will be central to an equitable, AI-centric future and to the technology's potential to improve lives, including by increasing wealth.
- Key factors that will drive AI accessibility include: the adoption of edge AI, which will facilitate AI's deployment in physical spaces and objects; investment in AI accessibility; democratization of education with AI; and the embedding of inclusivity and accessibility by design in AI models and solutions.
Autos
6. China Auto Brief: Increasing Scrutiny Can't Stanch Margin Decay, June 11, 2025
Claire Yuan, Hong Kong, 852-2533-3542, Claire.Yuan@spglobal.com
- The brutal price war in China's auto industry is obliterating profitability.
- This undermines R&D spending and puts supply chains at risk.
- Regulatory intervention offers some respite, but only industry consolidation can restore margins to sustainable levels.
7. CreditWeek: Will Tariffs Total Automakers Credit Quality?, June 6, 2025
Vittoria Ferraris, Milan, + 390272111207, vittoria.ferraris@spglobal.com
- The uncertainty surrounding the unfolding trade conflict complicates strategic responses from auto original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers.
- The outcomes of the start-stop nature of ongoing tariff policies and trade tensions will affect credit quality across the global automotive sector—prompting automakers firstly and suppliers later on to absorb extra costs and putting profit margins and cash flow generation under pressure.
Consumer products
8. China Beverages: Investment Sprees Could Water Down Credit Strength, June 3, 2025
Sandy Lim, CFA, Hong Kong, 2533-3544, sandy.lim@spglobal.com
- China's demand for fresh-made drinks in cafe-like settings could grow into a Chinese renminbi (RMB) 1 trillion annual market by 2027.
- Too much money may be chasing this growth story, in our view, and increased franchising will further ratchet up expansion in the sector.
- Competitive jostling will dim growth prospects for neighboring categories, such as dairy and packaged ready-to-drink products.
Corporates
9. India Inc.'s Spending Spree Will Likely Pay Off, June 10, 2025
Neel Gopalakrishnan, Melbourne, 61-3-9631-2143, neel.gopalakrishnan@spglobal.com
- We estimate Indian corporates will double their capital spending over the next five years.
- This will be largely financed by operating cash flows and facilitated by ample domestic funding options.
- Barring execution mistakes or negative macro changes, these investments should boost business scale without driving up leverage.
Credit trends and market liquidity
10. Global Tariff Tracker: Rating Actions As Of May 30, June 3, 2025
Credit Markets Research, New York, 1-212-438-1396, cmr@spglobal.com
- There have been 26 tariff-driven rating actions as of May 30, 2025.
- Rating actions include eight downgrades (two accompanied by a negative outlook), five CreditWatch negative placements, and 13 outlook revisions to negative.
- Actions are primarily concentrated in the consumer products (10) and retail/restaurants (four), automotive (three), and chemicals, packaging and environmental services (two) sectors, with the remainder spread evenly across other sectors. Of the 26 issuers affected, 20 are based in North America, four are from Europe, and two are from Asia Pacific.
11. This Month In Credit May 2025: Wavering Momentum, May 29, 2025
Erik Wisentaner, London, +44-207-176-0570, erik.wisentaner@spglobal.com
- Upgrades exceeded downgrades in April for the fourth month in a row but declined by 24%. Net bias (positive minus negative bias) edged downward (to negative 5.0%) for the second month in a row, driven by a gradual decline in positive bias.
- Sovereigns had the largest increase in negative bias, driven by four negative revisions including a new potential fallen angel.
- New risky credits (issuers downgraded into the 'CCC+' and below rating category) increased by eight in April--the greatest number of new risky credits this year and bringing the total to 24% above year-to-date 2024.
- Corporate defaults decreased to eight in April from nine in March, as the year-to-date count (34) reached a two-year low and is trending below the five-year average of 42.
12. Credit Trends: North American Risky Credits: Overall Tally Steadies Despite Rising Pressure In Key Sectors, May 30, 2025
Nicole Serino, New York, + 1 (212) 438 1396, nicole.serino@spglobal.com
- The number of North American issuers rated 'CCC+' or below held steady at 149 in April 2025, unchanged from January.
- However, the share of issuers downgraded to 'CCC+' or lower rose to 1.2% in April--up from the previous three-month average--driven largely by the high tech sector. The overall tally remained unchanged over the last three months due to several defaults and withdrawn ratings.
- Refinancing risk among 'B-' and below rated issuers is most pronounced in the media and entertainment, telecommunications, and high tech sectors, which together face over $60 billion in debt maturing through 2026.
Cross sector
13. Asia-Pacific Sector Roundup Q2 2025: Trade Complications Could Disturb Still Waters, March 27, 2025
Eunice Tan, Singapore, +65-6530-6418, eunice.tan@spglobal.com
- A complicated trade and macro landscape: Asia-Pacific sectors could face a complicated credit landscape amid higher trade tensions. Higher trade barriers may disrupt supply chains and slow growth. Auto, metals, pharma and technology face a direct hit from U.S. tariffs. Fears of a sharper global downturn could hit demand and confidence, squeezing the region’s downstream and consumer discretionary sectors (e.g., consumer goods, gaming, and retail).
- Pressure on revenues and financing conditions: A hit to demand could erode corporate revenues, which narrows credit headroom. Banks could face lower asset quality and thereby tighten lending appetite. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, lenders may demand higher risk premia. This may upend the region's accommodative financing conditions as markets turn more volatile. Defaults may rise.
- Skewed outlook bias distribution: The net rating outlook bias improved to negative 2% as of March 2025 (Nov. 2024: negative 4%), following downgrades on New Zealand public finance issuers. The negative bias is largest for chemicals, building materials, retail, transportation cyclical, and real estate.
14. Policy Brief: China Aims To Put Market Back At Center Of Economy, June 9, 2025
Chang Li, Beijing, + 86 10 6569 2705, chang.li@spglobal.com
- In an era of heightened tariffs and economic nationalism, China is talking about free markets.
- Beijing wants to increase market pressures to spur companies toward greater efficiency and innovation.
- Private firms will be given a freer hand, and highly indebted SOEs that don't make the cut may be allowed to fail.
15. Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights: Global Tensions, Local Resilience, June 11, 2025
Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York, +1-212-438-2228, elijah.oliveros@spglobal.com
- A weaker U.S. dollar will support disinflation across Emerging Markets (EMs), with the median EM currency up 7% year-to-date. Lower prices for imported goods in local currency, alongside subdued oil prices, will be main drivers of slower inflation in several EMs. This gives EM central banks more space to lower interest rates after years of significant monetary tightening.
- EM-U.S. benchmark spreads narrowed across most emerging markets, as the recent rise in U.S. 10-year government yields did not prompt similar moves in EM counterparts—potentially signaling robust investor appetite toward developing economies. However, a historical analysis shows this is not without precedent.
- Number of risky credits drops amid market slowdown. Following the upward revision of Argentina’s transfer and convertibility assessment, the number of ‘CCC+’ and lower rated issuers in EMs fell to nine from 15. This pool of entities did not issue debt in February-April 2025, indicating the sharp rise in borrowing costs triggered by the tariff-related market turmoil, as well as a manageable maturity schedule.
- EM benchmarks and corporate yields narrowed in May, while the number of defaults accelerated, with three Brazilian issuers defaulting in the month, bringing the EM year-to-date count to four. Market activity rose notably in Saudi Arabia (Aramco) and Colombia (Grupo Nutresa). However, issuance was sluggish in Brazil, Mexico, and Malaysia, and it decreased in Greater China, which posted a 25% decrease from April.
16. Credit FAQ: What New World's Wobbles Mean For Hong Kong Developers, Banks, June 11, 2025
Wilson Ling, Hong Kong, +852 25333549, wilson.ling@spglobal.com
- New World (unrated) recently chose not to call a perpetual bond, deferred hybrid coupon payments and launched a project at competitive prices. The actions stoked market concerns about the liquidity of the developer, one of Hong Kong's largest.
- New World Development Co. Ltd.'s coupon deferral is a complication for a handful of hybrid investors today. Tomorrow, it may become a headache for the oversupplied Hong Kong property market. It could trigger cascading effects where homebuyers lose confidence and delay purchases.
- The end result may be our downside scenario for the Hong Kong property market: home prices drop 5%-7% this year.
17. Credit FAQ: Ireland Trade Tremors: Four Questions, Four Answers, June 5, 2025
Samuel F Tilleray, Madrid, 34677886811, samuel.tilleray@spglobal.com
- S&P Global Ratings believes Ireland’s economy will be resilient to the short-term impact of announced tariffs, but the extent of damage to longer-term competitiveness is less clear.
- Ireland will remain a major hub for the pharmaceuticals sector because it is not easy to relocate such complex processes, but future growth of the industry may be much slower in the longer term.
- Rated aircraft lessors are generally well positioned to navigate tariff uncertainty, but not immune to market volatility and macroeconomic weakness.
- We believe Irish whiskey and dairy exports will be hit hard by U.S. trade tariffs.
18. U.S. Public Finance Issuers' Inconsistent Cyber Security Faces State-Backed Threats, May 29, 2025
Geoffrey E Buswick, Boston, 1-617-530-8311, geoffrey.buswick@spglobal.com
- Sovereign-sponsored and politically motivated cyber attacks are targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, according to warnings by the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) and the FBI.
- Utilities' exposure to cyber risks are exacerbated by widespread failure to implement all federal cyber security standards. Smaller water systems appear particularly vulnerable, due to investment constraints, limited industry-level cooperation, and inconsistent application and quality of cyber risk oversight frameworks.
- Rated issuers in the transportation sector have a generally higher degree of cyber risk awareness, according to anecdotal evidence from meetings with management teams, though risk to fiscal health and operational services remains.
Economics
19. Canada Macroeconomic Snapshot: Growth Prospects Held Back By Uncertainty Over U.S. Tariffs, June 11, 2025
Satyam Panday, San Francisco, + 1 (212) 438 6009, satyam.panday@spglobal.com
- Since the U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on most other countries, Canada no longer appears to be at a competitive disadvantage (a position it appeared to be in before April).
- Real GDP grew at a respectable 2.2% annualized rate in the first quarter (driven by inventory accumulation and healthy growth in exports), up from 2.1% in the fourth quarter.
- Nonetheless, with the higher tariff on Canada's auto exports, and with consumers' and businesses' ongoing concerns about future U.S. trade policy, Canada's economy is still set to see below-potential GDP growth in the near term (even though we think it'll likely avoid a recession). Companies will likely keep major investment projects on hold ahead of the USMCA renegotiation.
- The growth in Canadian exports to the U.S. will likely slow, but for a more conventional reason: Prospects for real GDP growth in the U.S. have deteriorated.
- The pace of job gains has slowed significantly this year, with businesses pausing their hiring plans. We think the unemployment rate will stay at roughly 7% through the end of 2025, up from the 6.4% average for 2024.
- The scrapping of the carbon tax will keep a lid on headline inflation, but the underlying core inflation (CPI-mean and CPI-median) has been rising recently, toward 3%.
- We think there will likely be three 25-basis-point rate cuts over the rest of 2025. This would take the policy rate to 2.0% at the end of the year, from 2.75% currently.
20. Economic Research: Net-Zero Transition Stutters As Geoeconomic Risks Increase, June 11, 2025
Marion Amiot, London, 44-0-2071760128, marion.amiot@spglobal.com
- Geoeconomic security concerns are reshaping the transition to net-zero emissions. Immediate risks take precedence over long-term sustainability goals, even though global emissions keep rising.
- Weaker climate policy commitments and trade tariffs will slow progress toward net zero, with less public funding available to derisk net-zero technologies and emerging markets. This reduces private sector incentives to invest in clean technologies.
- Asia-Pacific (APAC)--particularly China--and the EU will continue to lead the development and adoption of clean technologies. Yet diverging industrial and trade policies will likely continue to create tensions.
21. Global Macro Update: Seismic Shift In U.S. Trade Policy Will Slow World Growth, May 1, 2025
Paul F Gruenwald, New York, + 1 (212) 437 1710, paul.gruenwald@spglobal.com
- A seismic and uncertain shift in U.S. trade policy has roiled markets and raised the specter of a global economic slowdown. As a result, we have updated our macro view.
- The jump in U.S. import tariffs, trading partner retaliation, ongoing concessions, and subsequent market turbulence constitute a shock to the system centered on confidence and market prices. The real economy is sure to follow, but by how much?
- We have again lowered our GDP growth forecasts for most countries and raised our inflation forecast for the U.S. We see a material slowdown in growth, but do not foresee a U.S. recession at this juncture.
- The risks to our baseline remain firmly on the downside in the form of a stronger-than-anticipated spillover from the tariff shock to the real economy. The longer-term configuration of the global economy, including the role of the U.S., is also less certain.
22. Economic Research: Global Aging Trends Are Catching Up To Southeast Asia, June 12, 2025
Vishrut Rana, Singapore, + 65 6216 1008, vishrut.rana@spglobal.com
- Aging trends will hit GDP growth in Southeast Asia and require additional resources to support welfare.
- There will be a greater requirement for resources to address aging; for example, households will increasingly call on governments to provide adequate pensions and health care to the aged.
- Economies in the region will benefit from cheaper capital-- savings rates will rise while individuals save for retirement; economies will also be hit by weakening growth in domestic spending.
23. U.S. Real-Time Data: No material deterioration in activity (yet), May 23, 2025
Satyam Panday, San Francisco, + 1 (212) 438 6009, satyam.panday@spglobal.com
- Uncertainty is high, sentiments sour, and the business activity outlook remains very pessimistic. But this has not translated into meaningful deterioration of real-time current activity data.
- Weekly economic index and retail sales remain solid.
- Domestic travel and hotel bookings have held up despite headline fear.
- U.S. industrial output and utilization lag pre-pandemic levels, and economywide shortages since the pandemic have not normalized yet and look to continue with trade/tariff constraints.
- Following the U.S.-China trade truce, container ship movements appear to have found a floor (for now) after a sharp climbdown from tariff frontrunning.
24. U.S. Labor Market Snapshot: Holding The Line, But Headwinds To Test Resilience, May 14, 2025
Satyam Panday, San Francisco, + 1 (212) 438 6009, satyam.panday@spglobal.com
- The U.S. labor market remained resilient through April, but headwinds are likely to intensify.
- The uncertainty and tariffs' toll, roll-back of immigrant supply, and public- sector spending cuts are key impediments to employment growth.
- The aging population (especially in the absence of favorable immigration policy) and accelerated cyclical slowdown would plague the labor market in the coming quarters.
- The Fed’s dilemma is that a conflict is brewing starting in the second quarter between its stable inflation and full employment mandates.
25. U.S. Economic Outlook Update: Higher Tariffs And Policy Uncertainty To Weaken Growth, May 1, 2025
Satyam Panday, San Francisco, + 1 (212) 438 6009, satyam.panday@spglobal.com
- A working assumption of sharply higher U.S. average effective tariff on imported goods as well as the persistent unpredictability of policy have led us to update our U.S. macroeconomic forecasts.
- According to our new baseline forecast, the U.S. economy will expand 1.5% and 1.7% on an annual average basis in 2025 and 2026, respectively, (down from 1.9% in our March forecast), with domestic demand (GDP excluding net exports) growing at a less than 1% annualized pace for the rest of this year.
- The tariff-induced price shock would raise core consumer price inflation to 4.0% by the end of this year, while lower oil price assumption should put a lid on headline inflation at 3.5%.
- The unemployment rate will drift higher as weaker growth takes hold, potentially peaking at 4.7% in the first half of next year, despite curbs on immigration and a rise in deportations slowing labor force growth.
- We anticipate the Federal Reserve to ease by 50 basis points in the final quarter of 2025, when greater downside risk to employment begins to outweigh the upside risks to its inflation outlook.
Environmental, social, and governance
26. Climate Transition Assessment Description For B3 Ações Verdes, June 4, 2025
Kristina Alnes, Oslo, kristina.alnes@spglobal.com
- A Climate Transition Assessment (CTA) is our qualitative opinion of how consistent with a low carbon, climate resilient future we expect an entity’s economic activities will be once the planned transition changes are realized and potential material implementation risks are considered.
- Analytical outputs from CTAs are used to assess alignment of listed Brazilian companies or those in the process of an IPO to the requirements set by the B3 Ações Verdes (BAV) green equity designation.
- The BAV follows the World Federation of Exchanges Green Equity Principles guidelines. Only activities eligible under the EU Taxonomy are counted toward the thresholds for BAV.
27. Sustainability Insights: Spain's And Italy's Water Networks Are Thirsty For Investment, June 11, 2025
Alejandro Rodriguez Anglada, Madrid, + 34 91 788 7233, alejandro.rodriguez.anglada@spglobal.com
- Low water availability and intense consumption are causing water stress in Spain and Italy, particularly in the south of the countries.
- The water infrastructure is aging in both Spain and Italy, with leaks leading to substantial water losses, especially in areas with the highest water stress.
- Solutions will require investment in infrastructure that could put pressure on local and regional governments' (LRGs') budgets, increase their debt, and eventually weaken their creditworthiness.
- On the other hand, a failure to address water scarcity might weigh on LRGs' economic growth prospects and erode their tax bases.
28. Climate Transition Assessment Description For The SIX 1.5°C Climate Equity Flag, June 4, 2025
Kristina Alnes, Oslo, kristina.alnes@spglobal.com
- A Climate Transition Assessment (CTA) is our qualitative opinion of how consistent with a low carbon, climate resilient future we expect an entity’s economic activities will be once the planned transition changes are realized and potential material implementation risks are considered.
- CTAs are used to assess alignment of companies with the SIX 1.5°C Climate Equity Flag Framework and to determine if companies meet the requirements for the SIX 1.5°C Climate Equity Flag.
29. Climate Transition Assessment Description For The Nasdaq Green Designations, June 4, 2025
Kristina Alnes, Oslo, kristina.alnes@spglobal.com
- A Climate Transition Assessment (CTA) is our qualitative opinion of how consistent with a low carbon, climate resilient future we expect an entity’s economic activities will be once the planned transition changes are realized and potential material implementation risks are considered.
- Analytical outputs from CTAs are used to assess alignment of companies with the NASDAQ Green Equity Principles and to determine if companies meet the requirements for either the NASDAQ Green Equity Designation or the Green Transition Designation.
- The NASDAQ Green Equity Principles are aligned with the World Federation of Exchanges Green Equity Principles guidelines.
Financial institutions
30. Australian Banks Want Borrowers Back--And Mortgage Brokers Out Of The Way, June 10, 2025
Simon Geldenhuys, CFA, Melbourne, 61-3-9631-2173, simon.geldenhuys@spglobal.com
- Curbing their reliance on mortgage brokers could allow Australian banks to boost their net interest margins and profitability.
- Banks are heavily investing in their proprietary channels to regain ground from brokers, who originate about 60%-70% of their new mortgage lending.
- Any marginalization of brokers will be gradual, in S&P Global Ratings' view, and is unlikely to affect our ratings on banks over the next two years.
31. Scenario Analysis: Most China Banks Can Weather Tariff Strains, June 11, 2025
Ming Tan, CFA, Singapore, 65-6216-1095, ming.tan@spglobal.com
- The creditworthiness of our rated China banks remains resilient to the formation of higher nonperforming assets (NPA) in our stress scenario.
- The government's injection plan will help the megabanks increase their loss buffer and maintain our current assessment of their capitalization.
- We see greater pressure on regional banks based in coastal provinces; most of our rated banks have a diverse portfolio across the country, which is a stabilizing factor.
32. European Banks Continue To Embrace Significant Risk Transfers, May 29, 2025
Richard Barnes, London + 44 20 7176 7227, richard.barnes@spglobal.com
- European banks' outstanding significant risk transfers (SRTs) look poised for further growth in 2025. This follows a 15% increase in 2024, as indicated by regulatory filings.
- Despite geopolitical uncertainty, investor demand remains strong and provides opportunities for banks to manage their credit portfolios, optimize capital requirements, and enhance returns on equity.
- The region's largest lenders dominate transaction activity, but issuance is becoming broader based as the growing investor base and favorable pricing attract more banks to the market.
33. G-SIB Monitor 2025: Powering Through, May 27, 2025
Nicolas Charnay, Paris, +33623748591, nicolas.charnay@spglobal.com
- We expect rated global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) will remain resilient and continue to record solid profits in 2025, despite a weaker economic outlook. Business diversification and scale will help G-SIBs navigate tougher credit conditions.
- Our outlooks on all G-SIB ratings are stable. In 2024, we upgraded two G-SIBs and downgraded one. Our ratings on G-SIBs’ operating companies range from ‘A-’ to ‘AA-’.
- Ongoing tariff uncertainty may trigger several macro-financial shocks, which could affect global financial institutions’ risk profiles. We expect the most direct effects on G-SIBs include lower M&A volumes--which, in the case of banks with capital markets operations, can be offset by an increase in trading volumes--higher proactive credit provisioning, and lower lending growth.
- In our base case, we expect G-SIBs’ profitability will decline but remain solid. We do not expect a meaningful deterioration in credit quality and believe most G-SIBs could absorb significantly higher losses. G-SIBs will continue to focus on their strategic priorities, namely building scale within their home region, diversifying revenues toward non-banking products, and boosting their efficiency via technological upgrades.
- Potential regulatory changes to improve competitiveness and simplify rules would not weigh on ratings, as long as key guardrails remain in place. Over the long term, however, regulatory fragmentation could increase costs and business model complexity for those G-SIBs that are most internationally active.
- The fast growth of private credit has spurred many banks to take strategic action to service or partner with key players in that space. Beyond the business opportunity, increasing interdependencies also raise contagion risks. G-SIBs’ risk management will be central in this regard.
34. Why Our View on GCC Banks' Capital Adequacy Differs from Regulators, May 29, 2025
Roman Rybalkin, CFA, Dubai, 971-0-50-106-1739, roman.rybalkin@spglobal.com
- The risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio is the primary metric used by S&P Global Ratings to assess the capital adequacy of issuers and it influences our analysis of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-based banks that we rate.
- The role that the RAC ratio plays in our analysis of credit quality, and the differences between the RAC ratio and the region's regulatory capital requirements, is thus a subject of interest.
35. Banking Brief: Unpacking Proposed Revisions To Switzerland’s Too-Big-To-Fail Framework, June 9, 2025
Anna Lozmann, Frankfurt, +49 69 33999 166, anna.lozmann@spglobal.com
- We see potential changes to the Swiss "too-big-to-fail" framework as broadly supportive of banks' creditworthiness.
- The proposal offers greater supervisory effectiveness and standards to ensure that systemic banks are more resilient from a liquidity perspective.
- Nevertheless, it creates a headache for UBS Group, which faces a potential steep rise in its capital requirements, and investors in Swiss additional Tier 1 (AT1) securities would have more clarity around when to expect coupon deferral and non-call decisions.
- Stronger capitalization is usually supportive of credit ratings, but only if banks can concurrently operate a sustainable business model.
36. U.S. Large Banks Q1 2025 Update: Stable Performance Persists Despite Economic Headwinds, May 30, 2025
Devi Aurora, New York, + 1 (212) 438 3055, devi.aurora@spglobal.com
- GSIBs' earnings rose in first-quarter 2025 from both fourth-quarter 2024 and first-quarter 2024, aided by strong noninterest income and modestly higher net interest income (NII), even as higher noninterest expense and a higher provision for credit losses weighed on results.
- We think the trajectory of GSIBs' NIMs could diverge depending on how well they manage their asset sensitivity, as well as the extent of earning asset growth.
- Delinquent loans and nonperforming loans fell in the first quarter from both fourth-quarter 2024 and first-quarter 2024. But net charge-offs rose modestly from both of those periods. Nonperforming and delinquent loans remain below pre-pandemic levels, though charge-offs have inched higher.
- GSIBs together are the largest CRE lenders by dollar volume, but CRE loans account for a relatively small percentage of their overall portfolios. Large banks' broadly diversified loan portfolios and balance sheet improvements in the last year have reduced risk. CRE risks have eased somewhat amid stabilizing valuations, modest economic growth, and lower interest rates following the Fed’s 2024 rate cuts.
Infrastructure
37. Pacific Ports Have The Caution And Capacity For Risks Ahead, June 1, 2025
Parvathy Iyer, Melbourne, 61-3-9631-2034, parvathy.iyer@spglobal.com
- Rated ports in Australia and New Zealand have adequate financial levers to withstand a modest downturn in trade revenues for the next 12-24 months.
- They face some volatility and secondary impacts due to evolving U.S. trade policy and tariffs and the risk these present to key trading partners in Asia.
- Several factors offset downside risk. These include revenue from other sources such as property, growing demand for commodities such as coal, and availability of financial levers in case of any slowdown.
38. Brazilian Infrastructure Credit Quality Can Withstand Rising Debt Service Amid High Interest Rates, June 4, 2025
Marcelo Schwarz, CFA, Sao Paulo, 55-11-3039-9782, marcelo.schwarz@spglobal.com
- Brazilian infrastructure groups' growing cash generation and steady operating performance should help manage rising debt service costs as interest rates should remain at 14.75% until year-end.
- Amid high ongoing investments, rated companies will allocate a significant portion of their cash flows to debt payments, keeping credit metrics pressured, but we don't expect an impact to ratings.
- Electric utilities will take the greatest hit because of their high exposure to floating interbank deposit rates and limited capital expenditure flexibility, while toll roads and water utilities will be better positioned to postpone committed investments.
39. India Renewables: Doubling Down On Growth, June 4, 2025
Cheng Jia Ong, Singapore, 65-6239-6302, chengjia.ong@spglobal.com
- India's renewable sector will need to double its annual capacity addition to 50 gigawatts (GW) over 2025-2030 to meet the country's lofty 500GW target.
- Capacity addition will require US$175 billion and up to US$150 billion for the expansion and strengthening of the transmission and distribution network.
- S&P Global Ratings anticipates that for most renewable energy companies, high capex--at twice the level of EBITDA--will keep leverage above 8x net debt-to-EBITDA. Onshore financing will help support this.
40. North America Investor-Owned Regulated Utilities How Credit Stories Have Evolved, June 12, 2025
Gabe Grosberg, New York, + 1 (212) 438 6043, gabe.grosberg@spglobal.com
- The 20 largest North America investor-owned utility holding companies account for about 70% of the industry’s funds from operation, debt, and capital spending.
- Over the past five years the ratings for the 20 largest utility holding companies were considerably less volatile than the industry average.
- However, the ratings distribution for the 20 largest utilities remains generally consistent with the broader industry.
- Currently about 75% of the 20 largest utility holding companies are operating with minimal financial cushion or funds from operations to debt that is less than 100 basis points from their downgrade threshold. This compares negatively to the industry average, which is closer to 50%.
- Looking forward, ratings pressure could increase for the top 20 utility holding companies, reflecting the considerably higher percentage of negative outlooks compared to the industry average.
41. For U.S. Power Sector, Big Beauty Meets Big Reality, June 5, 2025
Aneesh Prabhu, CFA, FRM, New York, 1-212-438-1285, aneesh.prabhu@spglobal.com
- We view the House-approved tax and spending bill as broadly unfavorable, yet potentially manageable, for the renewable segment.
- Earlier sunsets of tax credits could slow growth, affecting companies’ abilities to secure all forms of financing. Renewables lean heavily on debt and tax financing for growth.
- Any cost structure increases for renewable generation will be favorable, not only for legacy conventional generation, but also new gas-fired generation that has also witnessed capital cost increases.
- We see the House bill, as currently proposed, still favorable for nuclear generators.
- We note that the bill has to go through the Senate before it goes to the President for confirmation and becomes law.
Insurance
42. Industry Report Card: Top-Rated EMEA-Based Insurers: Common Traits, June 5, 2025
Johannes Bender, Frankfurt, 49-693-399-9196, johannes.bender@spglobal.com
- Insurers in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) benefit from sound capitalization and robust capital buffers to help withstand external shocks. Their aggregate capital adequacy sits above the highest confidence level of 99.99% according to S&P Global Ratings' criteria.
- EMEA-based insurers' strengths are evident from an average rating in the 'A' category, predominantly stable outlooks, and more positive than negative outlooks.
- EMEA-based insurers that we rate in the 'AA' category all have competitive position assessments of at least very strong. This reflects their consistently robust operating performance, supported by market-leading positions and pricing power. Insurers also generally benefit from diverse sources of earnings that make them less dependent on a single market or line of business.
- Primary insurers rated 'AA' and 'AA-' report strong aggregate earnings, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.4% and a combined ratio of 92% in 2024.
43. Solid Earnings Momentum For Global Multiline Insurers Continues, May 23, 2025
Marc-Philippe Juilliard, Paris, + 33 14 075 2510, m-philippe.juilliard@spglobal.com
- The 15 global multiline insurers (GMIs) that we rate reported aggregate net earnings of $68.1 billion in 2024. This constitutes an increase of 8% from 2023, or 15% excluding exceptional items.
- Property and casualty (P/C) activities benefited from strong underwriting results and volume growth. Even though combined ratios in personal lines improved, pricing adjustments take longer to materialize than in commercial lines.
- Life operation earnings increased materially. However, the anticipated market volatility in 2025 could significantly impair GMIs' short-term profitability.
- Dividend payout ratios over the past few years were high, at 50%-60%, and many players bought back shares for significant amounts.
- In our base-case scenario, we expect GMIs will report stable underwriting profits or a low single-digit increase in underwriting profits in 2025, compared with 2023-2024.
44. Japan Life Insurance Brief: Rising Latent Losses On Bonds Are Tolerable, June 3, 2025
Koshiro Emura, Tokyo, 81-3-4572-6185, koshiro.emura@spglobal.com
- Japanese life insurers’ creditworthiness can tolerate a rise in latent losses on bonds driven by higher interest rates.
- The losses will be offset by a decrease in insurance liabilities, on an economic value basis, also driven by the rise in Japanese interest rates.
45. 41st Annual North American Insurance Conference: "Certainly A Lot Of Uncertainty", June 6, 2025
Andrew Watt, CFA, New York, + 1 (212) 438 7868, andrew.watt@spglobal.com
- The key word across both days of our 41st Annual North American Insurance Conference was "uncertainty."
- The main areas of uncertainty (and volatility) on the minds of our external panelists were economics and geopolitics, technology and AI, private credit, extreme weather, and regulation.
- We believe the industry is well-positioned to withstand this uncertainty: Our sector views on global reinsurance and North American life and property/casualty insurance are stable.
46. Credit FAQ: Key Trends In The South African Insurance Industry, June 3, 2025
Sylvia Mhlanga, Johannesburg, 27-11-214-4825, sylvia.mhlanga@spglobal.com
- By catering to the demands of tech-savvy consumers, South African insurers are embracing innovative approaches to business generation. For example, insurers are using online platforms and mobile applications to make it easier for customers to access insurance products and services.
- Insurers and banks are moving toward integrating financial services under one umbrella, which is reshaping the financial landscape in South Africa.
- We expect the South African insurance industry's solvency will remain stable if insurers continue to adopt sound risk management practices and maintain adequate capital reserves.
Oil and gas
47. S&P Global Ratings Lowers Its WTI And Brent Price Assumptions For 2025 And Beyond On Oversupplied Oil Markets, June 3, 2025
Victoria Godunova, New York, 1-212-438-0280, victoria.godunova@spglobal.com
- We lowered our Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price assumptions by US$5 per barrel (bbl) for the rest of 2025 through 2028 and beyond to reflect our view that the global oil markets could be oversupplied.
- Our assumptions for Henry Hub, Canadian Alberta Energy Co. (AECO), and Dutch Title Transfer (TTF) are unchanged for 2025-2028.
- At this time, we don't believe our price deck revisions will directly lead to many rating actions this year.
Private markets
48. Credit FAQ: The ABC Of BDCs, June 2, 2025
Ramki Muthukrishnan, New York, 1-212-438-1384, ramki.muthukrishnan@spglobal.com
- Business development companies (BDCs), a unique feature of the U.S. market, have become a key funding source for private markets.
- The three main BDC structures provide access to different types of investors and are associated with distinct liquidity risks.
- Management styles of BDCs have transitioned from largely internal to external.
- We expect the use of payment-in-kind (PIK) toggles and PIK incomes will rise as market conditions deteriorate.
49. Private Markets Monthly, May 2025: Assessing And Financing The Data Centers Of Tomorrow Amid Today’s Market Disruption, May 30, 2025
Pablo F Lutereau, Madrid, + 34 (914) 233204, pablo.lutereau@spglobal.com
- Private credit is a key funding source for data center transactions—providing flexible capital solutions that support the asset class' acceleration and advancement and filling a widening infrastructure funding gap that has traditionally been supported by banks. Investors are drawn to private funding's potential for alpha, asset liability matching, credit resilience, and diversification in a constantly evolving realm of emerging and established digital infrastructure projects.
- We expect the customization of these capital-intensive data center transactions to become both more common and complex as demand for new infrastructure grows. Issuers are likely to utilize multiple layers of financing across both public and private markets due to the expansive amount of capital available and significant competition at play in funding these essential assets.
- But developing and deploying today's data centers that will power tomorrow's technological revolution is not without substantive risks, which may be compounded by current market uncertainties and longer-term sustainability concerns.
Public finance
50. Canadian Municipalities Are Well Positioned To Weather Temporary Trade Disruption, June 2, 2025
Dina Shillis, CFA, Toronto, + 1 (416) 507 3214, dina.shillis@spglobal.com
- Canadian municipalities have the fiscal tools and a record of prudent management and government support to maintain budgetary stability through temporary weakening in the local economy.
- Along with the fluid tariff landscape, rising capital needs will necessitate continued healthy own-source revenues, with higher borrowings possible.
- We will continue to assess each municipality on a case-by-case basis, with consideration for management response to economic vulnerabilities and evolving needs.
51. China Local Governments: Opportunities May Offset The Risks, June 12, 2025
Lorraine Liu, Hong Kong, 852-2532-8001, lorraine.liu2@spglobal.com
- Slower growth stemming from tariff hikes and weak consumer confidence is hampering the fiscal consolidation of China's local and regional governments (LRGs).
- However, S&P Global Ratings expects the land market to bottom out in 2025, which will aid a mild recovery in LRG deficit levels from 2026.
- SOE debt growth, including local government financing vehicles, has slowed following a government "hidden debt" swap program as well as government debt-control initiatives, which ease risks for LRGs.
52. Subnational Government Brief: What U.S. Tariffs Would Mean For Swiss Cantons, June 10, 2025
Didre Schneider, Frankfurt, 49-69-33-999-244, didre.schneider@spglobal.com
- On May 8, 2025, the U.S. administration announced a 31% tariff on some Swiss goods, including machinery, watches, and agricultural products.
- However, the application of these additional tariffs depends on ongoing legal proceedings and trade negotiations.
- On average, exports to the U.S. account for 16% of total exports of the eight cantons we rate, with the U.S. ranking among the top five trading partners in each of these cantons.
- We do not expect tariffs to have a material effect on the fiscal health of rated Swiss cantons. While we do not expect tariffs to directly affect our ratings, escalating protectionism will likely increase uncertainty, heighten economic risks, and dampen growth prospects.
53. Updated 2025 U.S. Transportation Infrastructure Activity Estimates: Eroding Port Volumes And More Tempered Growth Across Asset Classes, June 10, 2025
Scott Shad, Englewood, (1) 303-721-4941, scott.shad@spglobal.com
- An evolving macroeconomic and trade environment is driving modifications to our Jan. 9, 2025 activity measures across the U.S. transportation infrastructure asset classes, with the largest impact on ports, reflecting the rippling effects of significantly higher tariffs. There is no change to our stable sector outlooks at this time.
- We believe trade disputes between the U.S. and its partners, resulting in a significant increase in the overall effective U.S. tariff rate, will erode port container volumes in the near term. We forecast U.S. port volumes, as measured by twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), will decrease about 4% in calendar 2025, revised from a 0.7% decline estimated in January, with the overall calendar-year impact somewhat mitigated by the surge in volume before the tariff announcements on April 2.
- Most U.S. large container ports have financial headroom to withstand trade volatility but a prolonged disruption or more gradual volume declines would pressure credit quality if not addressed by management.
- We expect weaker, but still positive, U.S. economic conditions will result in slower and more tempered growth for the airport sector, with limited effects on ridership recovery for transit operators and benign impacts on the toll road sector, aided by falling fuel prices.
54. U.S. Public Finance Rating Activity Brief: May 2025, June 9, 2025
Nora G Wittstruck, New York, + (212) 438-8589, nora.wittstruck@spglobal.com
- There were more than 1,130 rating actions across USPF through May 31, 2025.
- Upgrades outpaced downgrades in the local governments, housing, and transportation sectors.
- Downgrades outpaced upgrades in the public power, education, health care, charter schools, and utilities sectors.
- Upgrades exceeded downgrades and unfavorable outlook revisions exceeded favorable outlook revisions year-to-date.
55. Federal Disaster Relief Funding Proposals Could Elevate Credit Risks For U.S. Governments, June 4, 2025
Alex Louie, Englewood, + 1 (303) 721 4559, alex.louie@spglobal.com
- The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) plays a critical role in disaster response, historically providing a reliable funding source in supporting recovery and rebuilding efforts after an event.
- States and local U.S. governments could bear a higher share of the funding responsibility for recovery should federally proposed changes to the parameters for disaster declarations come to fruition.
- S&P Global Ratings believes that, beyond the human toll on communities following an event, a higher threshold to qualify for FEMA assistance could lead to lasting financial and credit pressure for states and local governments, particularly if they are unable to adapt to policy or financial shifts in a timely manner.
56. Report Card: U.S. Transportation GARVEEs Remain Stable Amid An Evolving Federal Policy Environment, May 30, 2025
Quinn Rees, New York, +1 (212) 438 2526, quinn.rees@spglobal.com
- We believe U.S. federal agencies will continue to support highway and transit grant programs funded from the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) as required by current law and this will continue in subsequent surface transportation authorizations.
- Many grant anticipation revenue vehicle (GARVEE) issuers in our rated sector have contingency plans if, for any reason, federal funding is unavailable in the near term, and most have robust liquidity and coverage in the event of delays or rescissions.
- Highway and transit project cost inflation will likely be exacerbated by any tariffs on construction materials and wage growth, eroding the financial benefits of federal grants and overall infrastructure spending.
- Our analysis of key GARVEE sector financial metrics for fiscal 2024 shows continued stability across rated issuers, with a median maximum annual debt service (MADS) coverage of 10.0x that, combined with limited near-term debt plans, supports our stable outlook for the subsector.
Sovereigns
57. Sovereign Debt Liability Management And Distressed Exchanges, June 11, 2025
Giulia Filocca, Dubai, 971-5-673-5067, giulia.filocca@spglobal.com
- As global debt levels rise, sovereign debt liability management operations will become more frequent.
- Operations include buybacks, foreign and local currency debt exchanges, and debt-for-nature swaps, all of which generally aim to reduce debt and debt-servicing costs, mitigate refinancing risks, and smooth maturity profiles.
- S&P Global Ratings assesses different sovereign commercial debt operations on a case-by-case basis. We consider various factors such as the rating level, time to maturity, pricing dynamics, and alternative financing options when determining whether a liability management exercise may be distressed or not.
58. CreditWeek: How Will The Second-Order Effects Of Tariffs Affect Sovereigns?, May 23, 2025
Riccardo Bellesia, Milan, +39 272111229, riccardo.bellesia@spglobal.com
- S&P Global Ratings expects most sovereigns to endure the initial effects of tariffs, but the U.S.'s announced import duties will not affect all sovereigns equally.
- Those with solid external buffers, diversified economies, and limited merchandise exposure to the U.S. will likely be able to withstand immediate adverse credit implications. The secondary effects on most open, manufacturing-oriented economies—combined with lowered growth prospects and heightened uncertainty—could pose risks to countries entering this period of stress with weak fiscal and external positions.
59. Credit FAQ: What Poland's Close Presidential Election Could Mean For Fiscal And Economic Policy, June 4, 2025
Ludwig Heinz, Frankfurt, 49-693-399-9246, ludwig.heinz@spglobal.com
- S&P Global Ratings believes the recently ended presidential election campaign in Poland highlights the challenges that the economically resilient country might face in policy implementation.
- Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated Rafal Trzaskowski 51%-49% in the presidential election runoff held June 1. Nawrocki will succeed current President Andrzej Duda, whose term expires in August.
- Nawrocki's victory means Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government will govern alongside a president who could oppose most pro-EU policies. Nawrocki is aligned with the Law and Justice party, the main rival of Tusk’s Civic Platform party.
Structured finance
60. European CMBS Break Through The Refinance Wall, June 4, 2025
Carla N Powell, London, + 44 20 7176 3982, carla.powell@spglobal.com
- Despite European commercial real estate (CRE) sector asset values declining significantly, loans due for refinancing have performed better than in 2024, given their lower leverage and longer tail periods.
- We believe that of the nine commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) transactions in our surveillance portfolio, seven loans maturing in 2025 carry a low risk of default.
- Lower interest rates are enabling more borrowers to refinance even amidst declining property values. While we maintain a more negative outlook on the office and retail sectors, we believe that most borrowers remain well-positioned to refinance.
61. ABS Frontiers: On The Ground With Pooled Ground Lease ABS, June 10, 2025
Jie Liang, CFA, New York, + 1 (212) 438 8654, jie.liang@spglobal.com
- Pooled ground lease securitizations are a novel approach involving a familiar asset (ground-leased properties), where the cash flow collateral would be the ground leases themselves, and not loans secured by liens on ground-leased properties.
- The credit profile of a pooled ground lease securitization would center on legal risks, asset quality, and servicing considerations.
- While the characteristics of the assets themselves in a pooled ground lease transaction--and our approach to analyzing the risks–-will naturally share many similarities with those in a CMBS transaction, there are important distinctions.
62. BSL CLO Primer, June 9, 2025
Stephen A Anderberg, New York, + (212) 438-8991, stephen.anderberg@spglobal.com
- Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are structured finance transactions backed by a pool of loans to speculative-grade companies across different industry sectors.
- There are two primary types of CLOs: broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLOs collateralized mostly by loans to rated issuers in the BSL loan market, and middle market (MM) CLOs collateralized mostly by loans to smaller, often unrated, obligors in the direct lending market.
63. Inside Global ABCP 2025: A New Purpose Emerges, June 5, 2025
Joshua C Saunders, Chicago, 1-312-233-7059, joshua.saunders@spglobal.com
- ABCP outstanding increased to $333 billion in the U.S. and $152 billion in Europe in March 2025, compared with $276 billion and $132 billion in April 2024, respectively, as non-bank alternative sponsors continued to expand on global bank demand.
- Total ABCP ratings rose to 75 in the U.S.—a 17% increase since April 2024. Meanwhile, the total ratings in EMEA increased to 32 from 30.
- U.S. multiseller outstandings decreased to $171 billion in March 2025 from $179 billion in April 2024, partly due to economic uncertainty and evolving tariff policy. EMEA multiseller outstanding were $96 billion in March 2025.
- Auto is the largest asset type in U.S. multiseller conduits at 39%, while trade receivables comprise the largest asset type in European traditional multiseller conduits at 54%.
- JPMorgan is the largest ABCP sponsor globally with about $55 billion in ABCP outstanding as of March 2025, including its multiseller and alternative programs.
- We expect our ABCP rating outlooks to remain stable in 2025 as all supporting banks have either stable or positive outlooks. More broadly, 90% of banks in North America and 79% of those in Europe have stable outlooks.
64. SF Credit Brief: U.S. CMBS Delinquency Rate Remained Unchanged At 6.1% In May 2025; Multifamily Rate Dropped To 4.2%, June 3, 2025
Senay Dawit, New York, 1-212-438-0132, senay.dawit@spglobal.com
- The overall U.S. CMBS delinquency remains unchanged month over month at 6.1% in May.
- By balance, delinquency rates increased for retail (62 bps to 6.7%) and office (20 bps to 9.1%); and decreased for multifamily (140 bps to 4.2%), lodging (92 bps to 5.8%), and industrial (1.7 bps to 0.5%).
- Special servicing rates rose for retail, office, and industrial, and decreased for lodging and multifamily. Meanwhile, the share of loans that were either modified or extended increased 17 bps to 8.8%.
- Our delinquency rate does not include performing matured balloon loans, which represent 147 loans ($11.7 billion; 1.8% by outstanding balance).
Technology
65. Tariff Disruption In Asia Tech: Vietnam And India Are Key Markets To Watch Outside Of China, June 10, 2025
Clifford Waits Kurz, CFA, Hong Kong, 852-2533-3534, clifford.kurz@spglobal.com
- Smartphones and PCs are the most exposed to U.S. tariff risk among tech companies that produce in Asia.
- This is because these segments rely heavily on tariff-vulnerable markets to produce; and the U.S. market makes up a third of global PC shipments for some Asia producers.
- We think companies can pass on at least some of the cost to end-buyers. Many have also diversified their supply chains in recent years, which also acts as a shield.
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The Ratings View:
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We published the latest "This Week In Credit", our data-driven research snapshot that provides forward-looking, actionable insights on weekly market-moving credit trends, on June 9.
| Primary Contact: | Yucheng Zheng, New York 1-212-438-4436; yucheng.zheng@spglobal.com |
| Secondary Contacts: | David C Tesher, New York 212-438-2618; david.tesher@spglobal.com |
| Joe M Maguire, New York 1-212-438-7507; joe.maguire@spglobal.com | |
| Eunice Tan, Singapore 65-6530-6418; eunice.tan@spglobal.com | |
| Jose M Perez-Gorozpe, Madrid 34-914233212; jose.perez-gorozpe@spglobal.com | |
| Paul Watters, CFA, London 44-20-7176-3542; paul.watters@spglobal.com | |
| Research Contributor: | Sourabh G Kulkarni, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Pune ; |
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