Key Takeaways
- We continue to monitor downside risks, particularly property-related arising from China and Vietnam. Nonbanks in Korea could also face challenges from real estate project financing.
- Our outlook for the Asia-Pacific banking sector remains steady with 83% of banks on stable outlook as of Jan. 24, 2024.
- Buffers include generally sound profitability and capitalization prospects.
Property is likely the biggest risk to most financial institution ratings across Asia-Pacific in 2024. Weakness in this sector is well-flagged across some banking jurisdictions in the region. For Chinese banks, nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio for property-related lending could rise to 4.7%. This increase is likely to occur as weak property sales delay the recovery of developers' loan quality.
Beyond banks, China's distressed asset management companies (AMCs) face further impairment losses from large property exposures in 2024. Our view, however, is that government support for systemically important AMCs will stay very high (see "China's Distressed AMCs: Government Support Will Be There," published on RatingsDirect on Feb. 2, 2024).
Elsewhere across the region, Korea's property market is unlikely to recover over the next one to two years. Risks in Korea are more acute for nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), rather than banks.
In Hong Kong, commercial real estate is under pressure with high vacancy rates. Any potential credit impact would be limited, in our view, because systemically-important banks have robust stand-alone credit profiles and are likely to be the beneficiaries of extraordinary government support, in the unlikely event it was required.
Vietnam is another property hot spot. In a downside scenario, we estimate sector-wide NPLs in Vietnam could rise to about 4.5% versus our base-case forecast of 3.6% in 2024.
Aside from these areas of property sector stress, most banks in the region are holding up quite well. Property will undoubtedly remain a key risk factor in 2024. The risks are driven to various degrees across banking jurisdictions by elevated interest rates and borrowing costs, and structural changes in the property sector, most notably in the office segment. We anticipate additional credit differentiation between relatively stronger and weaker financial institutions across the industry.
Banks are well-buffered and this offsets some of the property-related risks. These buffers include generally sound profitability and capitalization prospects for most rated banks at current rating levels. This does not discount the potential for idiosyncratic rating actions on individual institutions where property stress is outside our base case or buffers are incongruent with current rating levels.
Furthermore, property exposure outside home regions may be problematic for some Asia-Pacific banks in 2024. A case point is the Feb. 1, 2024 profit warning by a midsized Japanese bank, Aozora Bank. The bank projects a full-year loss for fiscal 2023 (ending March 31, 2024) due to overseas real estate loans, principally in the U.S. We downgraded this bank late last year (see "Japan's Aozora Bank Downgraded To 'BBB' On Deteriorating Profitability And Stability; Outlook Stable," Dec. 21, 2023).
More generally, higher for longer interest rates and lingering risk of a global hard landing weigh on prospects for Asia-Pacific. The region's growth engine is set to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia. We project China's GDP growth will slow to 4.6% in 2024 (2023: 5.4%),and edge up to 4.8% in 2025. By 2026, China will return to 4.6% whereas India will reach 7.0% in 2026 (2023: 6.4%); Vietnam, 6.8% (4.9%); the Philippines, 6.4% (5.4%); and Indonesia steady at about 5%.
The slower economic momentum for 2024 will test banks' business volumes, asset quality, and financing conditions. Our outlook for the global banking sector is for continuing rating stability. This resilience is largely due to solid capitalization, improved profitability, and still sound asset quality.
We see limited potential for upside ratings momentum and have identified several key risks that could negatively affect bank ratings should a downside scenario emerge. A marked deterioration of economic conditions in Europe, the U.S, and China is possible, while inflation remains high. The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars bring spillover risks. Commercial real estate markets are suffering a significant downturn in some jurisdictions, with demand and prices falling, especially in the U.S., China, and some European countries. Related losses, although manageable, will be felt for a few years (see "Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024: Forewarned Is Forearmed," and "Global Banks Outlook 2024: Forewarned Is Forearmed," Nov. 16, 2023).
About 83% of Asia-Pacific bank ratings are on stable outlook as of Jan. 24, 2024.
While downside risks remain elevated, we recently raised some bank ratings due to idiosyncratic drivers. Earlier this year, we raised long-term issuer credit ratings on Indonesia's three largest state-owned banks: Bank Mandiri (Persero) PT, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT, and Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The upgrades reflect a very high likelihood that the government of Indonesia would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support in the event of financial distress (see "Ratings On Three Indonesian State-Owned Banks Raised On Higher Government Support; Outlook Stable," Jan. 18, 2024).
The 2024 outlook for the Australian banking industry is a bright spot. It's the only banking jurisdiction among the 19 we cover in the region where we see industry trends as positive. Potential positive ratings momentum will likely be contained to certain regional and smaller financial institutions. The senior issuer credit ratings on the four major banks are on stable outlook and are unlikely to be raised. Hybrid capital instruments issued by these banks could be raised, however.
Most Major Banks' Earnings Would Be Able To Absorb Credit Losses Over 5.0x Higher Than We Forecast
We estimate that the top-200 rated global banks represent about two-thirds of global bank lending. Further, our base-case forecasts show median credit losses of about 17% of pre-provision earnings for 2023 and in 2024. This indicates that credit losses would need to be more than 5.0x higher than we forecast before such losses would deplete bank capital rather than earnings.
Regionally, over the two years to end-2024, we estimate that median credit losses will range between 13% and 18% of earnings in Asia-Pacific, North America, and Western Europe; about 36% of earnings in Latin America; and about 23% in the rest of the world.
Across the 83 banking systems that S&P Global Ratings covers globally, we expect credit losses of more than US$2.5 trillion over 2023-2025. Asia-Pacific contributes to about US$1.5 trillion of this. We estimate credit losses will rise by 8% in 2023 to US$490 billion and increase 7% in 2024 and 4% in 2025 (see "Global Banks: Our Credit Loss Forecasts--Asset Quality Faces Rising Risks," Nov. 17, 2023).
Rising Interest Rates Will Widen Disparities Between The Strong And Weak Banks In Japan
We anticipate Japan's short-term policy interest rate will increase gradually in 2024. By our estimates, it will rise about 0.1 of a percentage point (ppt) this year and about another 0.25 ppt in 2025 from -0.1% now. We do not expect this change in monetary policy will have a major impact on Japan's economic trajectory.
In our base-case scenario, a gradual rise in yen interest rates will lift earnings in Japan's banking sector. However, the banking industry is likely to become more polarized when interest rates rise, reflecting disparity in the strength and weakness of each bank's core business (see "Japan Banking Outlook 2024: BOJ Hikes Will Widen Disparities," Jan. 24, 2024).
Korean Nonbanks Are More Exposed To Rising Credit Risks From Real Estate Project Financing
Korea's property market is unlikely to recover meaningfully over the next one to two years. The government will not likely seek to boost the market at this stage because housing prices are high after a rapid rise in the past few years. High household leverage suggests the government will seek to manage the pace of household debt growth to gradually lower the ratio of household debt-to-GDP.
That said, if housing prices unexpectedly plunge, we believe the government would likely step in to prevent a hard landing based on its track record. Currently, Korean won (KRW) 85 trillion (about US$63.2 billion) of measures are available to stabilize financial and real estate markets.
In our view, the credit risk is more acute for nonbanks, , finance companies, or securities firms. The appetite for growth and risk is higher among these institutions than it is for banks, in our view (see "For Korea's Nonbanks Real Estate Risk Is Becoming Reality," Jan. 17, 2024).
Limited Impact Caused By The Ransomware Attack On ICBC Financial Services
A recent ransomware attack on New York-based ICBC Financial Services (ICBCFS) signifies the increasing cyber-risk challenges facing Chinese banks. This is particularly the case for those operating overseas or that span multiple jurisdictions. Cyber-risk management in such situations is more complex, given disperse infrastructure, differing threats, and varied regulatory landscapes.
The rating is unchanged on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC: A/Stable/A-1), the parent of ICBCFS, because we believe the cyber-attack on Nov. 8, 2023, and related risks have only a limited impact, based on available information. The ransomware attack on ICBCFS is isolated from other parts of the group. The affected trading and settlement systems were disconnected.
According to ICBC, the bank's other domestic and overseas branches (including New York) were unaffected (see " Cyber Attack On ICBC Financial Services Highlights Risk Management Challenges Overseas," Nov. 14, 2023).
Stablecoin Stability Assessments By S&P Global Ratings
In December 2023, S&P Global Ratings launched its stablecoin stability assessment, which aims to evaluate a stablecoin's ability to maintain a stable value relative to a fiat currency. This launch includes public assessments of eight leading stablecoins: DAI, FDUSD, FRAX, GUSD, USDP, USDT, TUSD, and USDC.
S&P Global Ratings applies its analytical approach to assess a stablecoin's stability on a scale of 1 (very strong) to 5 (weak):
- First, we assess asset quality risks, including credit, market value, and custody risks.
- Second, we analyze to what degree any overcollateralization requirements and liquidation mechanisms may mitigate these risks.
- We then consider five additional areas: governance, legal and regulatory framework; redeemability and liquidity; technology and third-party dependencies; and track record.
For further details, see "Analytical Approach: Stablecoin Stability Assessments," Nov. 28, 2023.
Finalization Of Basel III Capital Rules Gaining Ground
Following turmoil in the U.S. banking industry in March 2023 after several banks failed, U.S. regulators proposed regulations to increase the strength and resilience of the U.S. banking system. The proposals, known as the Basel III endgame proposal and the global systemically important bank (GSIB) surcharge proposal, modify capital requirements for large banks and detail how U.S. regulators plan to implement the capital standards that the Basel Committee On Banking Supervision finalized in 2017 and 2019. Other regulatory proposals pertaining to liquidity and interest rate risk management may follow.
While the proposed U.S. rules would likely result in more stringent capital requirements for many U.S. banks, we don't expect the proposed EU rules to meaningfully increase bank capital levels in Europe. Many European banks are already at capitalization levels that anticipate the proposals (see "Credit FAQ: How The U.S. Proposes To Implement Basel III Capital Rules And The Impact On U.S. Bank Capital Ratios," Jan. 11, 2024 and "EU Banking Package: Inconsistencies Temper Framework Improvements," Jan. 9, 2024).
In Asia-Pacific, the adoption status varies widely across banking jurisdictions. Systems such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong have made significant progress toward implementation.
Proposal To Update Our Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology
S&P Global Ratings is requesting comments on a proposed revision to the treatment of market risk in its "Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology" (RACF; published on July 20, 2017) based on emerging Basel III framework changes. The proposed criteria constitute S&P Global Ratings' global framework for evaluating the capital adequacy of banks and certain nonbank financial institutions and financial services companies (including nonoperating holding companies of such groups).
Any rating impact is highly unlikely if we adopt these proposals. That is because they are targeted to a limited aspect of RACF market risk on the trading book and credit valuation adjustment charge and are not a fundamental change to the framework. Interested market participants may submit their written comments on the proposed criteria by Feb. 26, 2024. For further details, please see "Request For Comment: Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology," Jan. 25, 2024.
BICRA Changes
Over the past quarter (through Jan. 30, 2024), the following changes have been made to our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments (BICRAs) in the Asia-Pacific region.
Macao
We have assigned Macao Special Administrative Region (Macao) to BICRA Group '5'. The economic risk score for Macao is '5' and the industry risk score is '5'. The economic risk and industry risk trends are both stable.
We have published the following comprehensive BICRA reports in the past quarter in Asia-Pacific.
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Mongolia , Jan. 11, 2024
- Macao Assigned To Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Group '5', Jan. 9, 2024
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Hong Kong, Dec. 18, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Bangladesh, Dec. 13, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Indonesia, Dec. 4, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Korea, Nov. 3, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Cambodia, Oct. 12, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Thailand, Oct. 10, 2023
- Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Malaysia, Oct. 5, 2023
Table 1
| Real GDP Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change from prior forecast | ||||||||||||||||||
| (% year over year) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||||||||
| Australia | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| China | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -0.2 | ||||||||||
| Hong Kong | -3.5 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | ||||||||||
| India | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Indonesia | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Japan | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Malaysia | 8.7 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| New Zealand | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Philippines | 7.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Singapore | 3.6 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| South Korea | 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Taiwan | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Thailand | 2.6 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -0.2 | ||||||||||
| Vietnam | 8.0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Asia Pacific | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | ||||||||||
| Note: For India, 2022 = FY 2022 / 23, 2023 = FY 2023 / 24, 2024 = FY 2024 / 25, 2025 = FY 2025 / 26, 2026 = FY 2026 / 27. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Economics. | ||||||||||||||||||
Table 2
| Issuer Credit Ratings And Component Scores For The Top 60 Asia-Pacific Banks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institution | Opco L-T ICR/outlook | Anchor | Business position | Capital and earnings | Risk position | Funding and liquidity | Comparable Rating Analysis | SACP or Group SACP | Type of support | No. of notches of support | Additional factor adjustment | |||||||||||||
| Australia | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Macquarie Bank Ltd. |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
National Australia Bank Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Westpac Banking Corp. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| China | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. |
A/Stable | bb+ | Very Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb+ | GRE | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Bank of China Ltd. |
A/Stable | bbb- | Very Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a- | GRE | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. |
A-/Stable | bb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Adequate | 0 | bbb- | GRE | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
China Citic Bank Corp. Ltd. |
BBB+/Positive | bb+ | Adequate | Constrained | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bb | Group | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
China Construction Bank Corp. |
A/Stable | bb+ | Very Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb+ | GRE | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. |
BBB+/Positive | bb+ | Strong | Adequate | Strong | Strong/Adequate | 0 | bbb | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
China Minsheng Banking Corp. Ltd. |
BBB-/Stable | bb+ | Adequate | Constrained | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bb | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Hua Xia Bank Co. Ltd. |
BBB-/Stable | bb+ | Adequate | Moderate | Moderate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bb | GRE | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. |
A/Stable | bb+ | Very Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb+ | GRE | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Postal Savings Bank Of China Co. Ltd. |
A/Stable | bb+ | Strong | Moderate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb | GRE | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. Ltd. |
BBB/Stable | bb+ | Adequate | Constrained | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bb | GRE | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Hong Kong | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd. |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a+ | Sys. Imp. | 1 | (1) | |||||||||||||
|
Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Strong | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Bank of East Asia Ltd. (The) |
A-/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bbb+ | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. (The) |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a+ | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| India | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Axis Bank Ltd. |
BBB-/Stable | bbb- | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | (1) | bbb- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Kotak Mahindra Bank |
BBB-/Stable | bbb- | Adequate | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | (1) | bbb- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
HDFC Bank Ltd. |
BBB-/Stable | bbb- | Strong | Strong | Strong | Adequate/ Strong | 0 | a- | None | 0 | (3) | |||||||||||||
| ICICI Bank Ltd. § | BBB-/Stable | bbb- | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bbb | None | 0 | (1) | |||||||||||||
|
State Bank of India |
BBB-/Stable | bbb- | Strong | Moderate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb | None | 0 | (1) | |||||||||||||
| Indonesia | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bank Mandiri (Persero) PT |
BBB/Stable | bb+ | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | bbb- | GRE | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT |
BBB/Stable | bb+ | Strong | Strong | Moderate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | bbb- | GRE | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Japan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Chiba Bank Ltd. |
A-/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Adequate | Strong | Adequate/Strong | 0 | a- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.* | A/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Mizuho Financial Group Inc.* | A/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Moderate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Nomura Holdings Inc.* | A-/Stable | bbb+ | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bbb | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Norinchukin Bank |
A/Stable | bbb+ | Moderate | Strong | Moderate | Strong/Strong | 0 | bbb+ | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Resona Holdings* | A/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Shinkin Central Bank |
A/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Strong | Moderate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | bbb+ | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Shizuoka Bank Ltd. |
A-/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | a- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.* | A/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings* | A/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Moderate | Strong | Adequate/Strong | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Korea | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Industrial Bank of Korea |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bbb+ | GRE | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
KEB Hana Bank |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Kookmin Bank |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Nonghyup Bank |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/ Adequate | 0 | a- | GRE | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Shinhan Bank |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Woori Bank |
A+/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Malaysia |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Public Bank Bhd. |
A-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Strong | Strong/Strong | (1) | a | None | 0 | (1) | |||||||||||||
|
Malayan Banking Bhd. |
A-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
CIMB Bank Bhd. |
A-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/Strong | 0 | a- | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Group | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
ASB Bank Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Group | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Bank of New Zealand |
AA-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Group | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Westpac New Zealand Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Group | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Philippines | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bank of the Philippine Islands |
BBB+/ Stable | bbb- | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/ Strong | 0 | bbb+ | None | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Singapore | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
DBS Bank Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/ Strong | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/ Strong | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
United Overseas Bank Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | bbb+ | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/ Strong | 0 | a | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Taiwan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
CTBC Bank Co. Ltd. |
A/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Mega International Commercial Bank Co. Ltd. |
A+/Stable | bbb | Strong | Strong | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | a- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Thailand | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Bangkok Bank Public Co. Ltd. |
BBB+/Stable | bb | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Strong/ Strong | 0 | bbb- | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
KASIKORNBANK PCL |
BBB/Stable | bb | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | bb+ | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Krung Thai Bank Public Co. Ltd. |
BBB-/Positive | bb | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Adequate | 0 | bb | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
|
Siam Commercial Bank Public Co. Ltd. |
BBB/Stable | bb | Strong | Adequate | Adequate | Adequate/Strong | 0 | bb+ | Sys. Imp. | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| Data as of Jan. 26, 2024. "Type of Support" column -"None" includes some banks where ratings uplift because of support factors may be possible but none is currently included. (For example, this column includes some systemically important banks where systemic importance results in no rating uplift). *Holding company; the rating reflects that on the main operating company. §This ICR applies to the foreign currency rating only. ICR--Issuer credit rating. GRE--Government-related entity. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile. Sys. Imp.--Systemically important. ALAC--Additional loss-absorbing capacity. N/A--Not applicable. Sov --Capped by Sovereign Rating. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table 3
| Recent Rating Actions: Asia-Pacific Banks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Release Date | Org Legal Name | Org Country | From | To | ||||||
| January 25, 2024 |
Krung Thai Bank Public Co. Ltd. |
Thailand | BBB-/Stable/A-3 | BBB-/Positive/A-3 | ||||||
| January 18, 2024 |
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT |
Indonesia | BBB-/Stable/A-3 | BBB/Stable/A-2 | ||||||
| January 18, 2024 |
Bank Mandiri (Persero) PT |
Indonesia | BBB-/Stable/A-3 | BBB/Stable/A-2 | ||||||
| January 18, 2024 |
Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. PT |
Indonesia | BBB-/Stable/A-3 | BBB/Stable/A-2 | ||||||
| December 21, 2023 |
Aozora Bank Ltd. |
Japan | BBB+/Negative/A-2 | BBB/Stable/A-2 | ||||||
| November 29, 2023 |
Fubon Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. |
Hong Kong | BBB+/Stable/A-2 | BBB+/Positive/A-2 | ||||||
| *Recent rating actions are for the period October 1, 2023 to January 26, 2024. The list refers to banks and bank holding companies (banks) where the rating has been upgraded or downgraded, or the outlook has been changed. Banks where the ratings have been affirmed or the outlooks have not been changed are not included in the list. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||
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Other Research
Please see "Instant Insights: Key Takeaways From Our Research," published Jan. 31, 2024. This is a curated compilation of the key takeaways from our most up-to-date thought leadership.
Webcasts: Asia-Pacific Banking Insights
In the last quarter, we have held the following webcasts to share our views on Asia-Pacific and other banking topics. The replays are available on
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/events/webcast-replays/index#
- Asia-Pacific Sector Trends 2024, Jan. 30, 2024
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- Global Banks Outlook 2024: Forewarned Is Forearmed, Nov. 21-22, 2023
- Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2024 Virtual Conference, Nov. 8, 2023
- China Credit Spotlight Virtual Conference 2023, Oct. 19, 2023
- New Zealand Credit: What's In Store For 2024?, Oct. 18, 2023
- Alternative Investment Funds: Choppy Conditions Are Pushing Some AIFs Towards Debt, Oct. 11, 2023
This report does not constitute a rating action.
S&P Global Ratings Australia Pty Ltd holds Australian financial services license number 337565 under the Corporations Act 2001. S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings and related research are not intended for and must not be distributed to any person in Australia other than a wholesale client (as defined in Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act).
| Primary Credit Analyst: | Gavin J Gunning, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2092; gavin.gunning@spglobal.com |
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| Sharad Jain, Melbourne + 61 3 9631 2077; sharad.jain@spglobal.com | |
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| Chizuru Tateno, Tokyo + 81 3 4550 8578; chizuru.tateno@spglobal.com | |
| Ivan Tan, Singapore + 65 6239 6335; ivan.tan@spglobal.com | |
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| Research Assistant: | Priyal Shah, CFA, Mumbai |
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