Asset quality metrics are starting to improve across most of financial institutions across LatAm. But the process is still fragile because economic growth remains subdued, and we believe a pickup in nonperforming loans (NPLs), especially in the small and midsize enterprises (SME) lending segment and retail unsecured credit, to be the biggest risk to most financial institution ratings across LatAm in 2024. Corporations will benefit from decreasing interest rates, which will help normalize asset quality metrics, but still sluggish lending in the SME sector will continue straining asset quality performance.

We expect GDP growth to keep improving slightly in 2024 and 2025, but it will likely remain below its potential because political fragmentation is limiting governments' ability to pass needed reforms while polarized public opinion, in some countries, is hindering agreements on the path to long-term economic growth. In addition, although interest rates have started to fall in the region, they remain relatively high, given challenging conditions among borrowers, while regional banks tightened their underwriting practices due to the deterioration in asset quality. We expect interest rates to continue declining, which should support asset quality, but its recovery pace is anemic and exposed to global geopolitical instability.

Table 1

Chart 1

We expect lending growth to remain at single digits. Although we expect a pickup in credit demand in the corporate sector due to falling interest rates and refinancing needs, banks will likely continue to pursue conservative underwriting practices, given the tepid pace of asset quality stabilization. We expect credit growth will mostly come from the retail and corporate lending sectors. SMEs' credit quality is strained as internal demand remains modest, given the persistenty inadequate flow of credit to these entities and high interest rates, as they typically are charged a higher cost of borrowing than that for large companies. And during periods of asset quality deterioration, the access to credit is further restricted.

Chart 2

Regional banks' solid profitability due to their diversified business mix and sizable levels of government bonds with high yields and margins enable them to withstand credit cycles and wider credit losses. Banks continue to maintain high provisioning coverage ratios, which help mitigate the impact of weakening asset quality metrics. As central banks continue to lower their policy rates, we expect margins to narrow but profitability should remain sound compared with those of international peers, thanks to still healthy margins and recovering asset quality metrics.

Chart 3

The CRE segment remains a concern for banks across the globe. During the pandemic, hotels and retail properties have been hit especially hard. Currently, the stress comes from a longer-term structural shift in the sector, with many corporations implementing more flexible and hybrid working patterns. This has led to a decline in demand for office space, depressing asset valuations and cash flow. Given that banks in LatAm typically don't lend to this sector, because their lack of long-term funding sources, their exposure to this segment is at single digits or negligible.

The only banking system in the region that has a more meaningful exposure to CRE is Chile's, but we believe it's manageable. Chilean banks have been reducing their exposure to the sector since the pandemic began and primarily lend to larger CRE players. So far, Chilean banks' asset quality remains strong despite the sector's downturn. We don't expect a major impact on Chilean banks from the property market because the exposure to construction companies and developers is about 12%. Of this percentage, the exposure to construction companies is only 3%, while the share of office loans is low, as most of the developments recently have been in the housing sector, but not in the multifamily segment. The multifamily property market is currently small in LatAm and is mainly funded by institutional investors and investment vehicles.

LatAm banks' issuance pace in global capital markets has been extremely slow during the past two years. However, we have seen a pickup in global issuances in early 2024, mainly consisting of Tier 2 and additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments, including the following:

• Mexico-based BBVA Bancomer's $900 million of subordinated notes due 2039 in January 2024 at a 8.125% rate;
• Banco Internacional del Peru S.A.A. - Interbank's $300 million of subordinated notes due 2034 in January 2024 at a 7.625% rate; and
• Banco de Credito e Inversiones' (BCI's) $500 million of perpetual AT1 instruments (for which BCI attracted more than $3.725 billion in orders) in February 2024 at a 8.75% rate.

The collapse in global issuance volumes prior to 2024 was caused by a slump in investor sentiment and a rapid increase in hard-currency borrowing costs. Even though the bulk of regional banks' funding consists of retail deposits, they have suffered from tightening access to global capital markets, causing interest rates to rise. However, since the refinancing risk has been limited, they have been able to withstand this prolonged period of restrictive access to global capital markets thanks to the high proportion of retail deposits, the deepening of capital markets in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, and lower funding needs due to sluggish credit growth.

As banks in Chile and Peru implement Basel III standards gradually, they need raise capital buffers. As such, many banks have been looking to issue AT1 capital instruments for their capital management. In addition, investors view favorably a more robust regulatory capital, and banks could access capital markets by issuing senior debt at a lower rate.

Chile-based BCI January issuance of $500 million perpetual bonds at a rate of 8.75% was classified as AT1 by the Chilean regulator. Our issue rating on this debt is four notches lower than BCI's 'a-' stand-alone credit profile, reflecting the following:

• One notch for contractual subordination;
• Two notches for the risk of nonpayment of coupons; and
• One notch for the risk of principal write-down if the bank faces distress or nonviability.

We also view the AT1 notes as having intermediate equity content. We based this view on the following features of the notes:

• They are perpetual, subordinated to all senior debt and regulatory Tier 1 capital instruments;
• The debt contains no step-up features;
• The instruments are not callable within five years of the issue date; and
• They can absorb losses on a going-concern basis through the nonpayment of coupons.

BCI's initial offering was nearly 8x oversubscribed, showing the market's renewed appetite for these types of instruments, following several months from the write-down to zero of Credit Suisse's CHF16 billion AT1 portfolio. It is important to note that this has increased banks' cost of capital and made new AT1 issuances more difficult and expensive to carry out. On the other hand, amid high global interest rates, banks around the globe decided not to exercise the call option on these instruments, raising questions from investors about the implications of such actions. We consider the optional nature of the call (and the ability not to call) as a key feature of hybrid debt, which enhances an issuer's flexibility in how it uses this debt instrument to manage its capital. We believe the market viewed these events as issuers' economically rational behavior, given rising interest rates. And we don't believe such actions will hamper banks' ability to tap debt markets in the future.

Country-Specific Trends

Brazil

We expect Brazilian banks to continue focusing on improving their asset quality metrics through stringent underwriting policies and single-digit credit growth, primarily through guaranteed loans. Asset quality deterioration mainly stemmed from:

• High competition in the retail lending segment bolstered lending, which then slumped as delinquency rates picked up;
• High interest rates and inflation, which are now falling;
• Pressures on the corporate and SME sectors stemming from their variable-rate loans in a high interest-rate environment;
• Challenges in the retail sector following Americanas S.A.'s entry into bankruptcy and its ripple effect on its creditors and lending conditions in the country;
• Tightening access to credit due to more stringent underwriting practices.

We expect asset quality metrics to recover as interest rates continue to fall, easing credit costs on borrowers, and as new loans with stronger asset quality metrics increase their share of total loans. As banks' appetite for lending rises, once asset quality stabilizes, this will help to continue improving these metrics given that higher access to credit will reduce the pressure on borrowers. On the other hand, we expect NIMs to narrow because:

• Lower interest rates cause sovereign bonds yields to contract, lowering interest income in this portfolio that represents about 25% of banks' assets;
• The asset mix has been shifting towards guaranteed loans with lower margins;
• Caps on interest rates for credit cards and overdrafts as part of the central bank's initiative to reduce borrowers' cost of credit; and
• Fierce competition from fintechs that limits the pricing on certain products.

However, major banks' business diversification has helped mitigate the negative effect of weak asset quality on their bottom-line results, which have remained robust despite high provisions. We expect profits to weaken but remain solid thanks to banks' diversified business structures. Banks' funding needs are manageable, due to relatively low credit growth, stable retail deposits, and debt instruments that bring tax advantages. We don't expect major banks to need to raise additional capital as they maintain sound regulatory metrics and because retained profits will be sufficient amid the expected low lending growth.

Mexico

In our view, Mexican banks will continue posting solid performance as in 2023, despite slower economic growth. Therefore, we expect loan growth to moderate this year to 8%-9% in nominal terms from our estimate of 10% in 2023, while asset quality will slip but will remain at healthy levels thanks to conservative lending practices. Consumer loans and mortgages will continue driving credit growth based on solid consumption, thanks to remittance flows and the government's cash payments to households ahead of the presidential election in June.

Conversely, persistently negative private-sector sentiment toward some of the current administration's policies, along with the uncertainty over the next administration's priorities, will limit demand for commercial loans. During this stage of the election phase, presidential candidates are still defining their policies. Therefore, depending on the new administration's agenda, investment and nearshoring opportunities could lift demand for credit among companies. Finally, banks' profitability will remain strong, given still high interest rates, healthy asset quality, and lower inflationary pressure on operating expenses.

Chile

We expect banks in Chile to maintain slow credit growth in 2024, given soft economy and weak political consensus that's preventing the passage of legislation to strengthen economic prospects and investment. We expect credit demand from the corporate sector will rise gradually as lower interest rates will prompt companies to increase investments. Consumer lending will also rise modestly following the contraction in 2023. Asset quality has deteriorated as a result of weak economic performance but remains manageable at pre-pandemic levels. Lower interest rates and inflation will help improve asset quality metrics, in our view. We expect profitability to slip due to lower interest rates and inflation, denting NIMs. However, profitability will remain sound thanks to banks' efforts to maintain healthy efficiency levels and to contain credit losses. Banks' funding needs will remain manageable due to relatively low credit growth, stable retail deposits, and issuances in the domestic capital market. Chilean banks have solid capitalization metrics but while the new banking law will be fully implemented by 2025, as market opportunity arises, banks will likely continue issuing AT1 instruments in international capital markets in order to strengthen their regulatory capital metrics.

Colombia

The country's tough economy in 2023 weakened domestic banks' business and operating performance. Loan volumes contracted in real terms, financing costs and nonperforming assets spiked (mainly because of the deterioration in consumer loans' credit quality), all of which hit the sector's profitability. We expect Colombia's real GDP growth to be slightly above 1% in 2024. In this sense, we expect total loans to grow 4%-5% in nominal terms this year, but marginally in real terms. In our view, higher household debt and weakening purchasing power, still weak labor market dynamics, and companies' narrower margins will continue straining banks' asset quality this year. However, given that banks tightened their lending standards during the past 12 months, we expect that as the share of new loans rises on banks' loan books, NPLs should decrease. Besides the asset quality deterioration, additional factors that could keep pressuring banks' profitability are high funding costs, banks' digitalization strategies that require large investments, and inflation-fueled non-interest expenses.

Peru

During 2023, social unrest and adverse weather (Yaku Cyclone and El Niño) depressed investment, consumption, and economic activity in Peru. Due to these factors, along with the amortization of loans granted under government programs during the pandemic, loan volumes contracted in real terms. Higher margins due to high interest rates, a lower share of low-interest loans granted under government programs, fee revenue growth, and investment results allowed banks to post healthy profitability, despite heightened credit losses related to the mentioned events. In this sense, return on equity of the banking system was about 15% in 2023, compared with about 17% in 2022, and return on assets was 1.9%-2.0%. At the end of 2023, NPLs (90-day past-due loans) rose to 3.7% of total loans from 3.3% at the end of 2022 (and 2.6% at the end of 2019, prior to the pandemic), which mostly occurred in the small-size enterprise and consumer lending segments.

For 2024, we expect lending to resume growing in real terms, reflecting single-digit GDP growth with some recovery in investment and consumption. We expect asset quality to recover gradually but remain at weaker levels. Banks have sufficient provisioning and capital levels to absorb the impact of higher cost of risk.

Argentina

Adverse developments at the sovereign level continue to take a toll on ratings on Argentine financial entities. Macroeconomic and policy factors in Argentina have exacerbated distortions in the domestic financial system. Very high inflation and reference rates, subdued credit demand and investments, and cautious lending have crimped loan growth in real terms, with an increasing exposure to the government debt. During 2023, despite inflation of 211%, the financial system's profitability was very high with return on assets (in real terms) of 5.4% and return on equity of 27.6%. The net income increase was mainly because of results on securities (central bank securities and government bonds), exchange-rate differences, and valuation results of financial instruments (including securities adjusted to inflation).

Although loan growth has been sharply below the inflation rate, we expect the system to keep credit losses manageable, given banks' substantial provisions. As of December 2023, NPLs accounted for 3.5% of total loans, with much higher delinquency among public banks (6.9%) than among private ones (1.5%).

In December 2023, the central bank announced it won't continue to auction its securities (Leliqs). Passive repurchase (repo) operations became its main instrument to absorb monetary surpluses. Interest rates for such repos are below those of Leliqs and inflation. As a result, we expect the banking system's NIMs to narrow in 2024, despite trading income and government bond interest. Banks maintain high regulatory capital metrics amid low credit growth and greater weight of liquid assets (though mainly in government securities), and moderate dividend distributions.

Table 2

Selected Research

Commentaries

• Large Brazilian Banks' Performance Varied In Stormy 2023, March 5, 2024
• Colombian Insurance Industry To Maintain Profitability In The Coming Years, March 4, 2024
• Downside Risks Abound For Financing Companies In 2024, Feb. 19, 2024
• Comments Requested On Proposed Changes To Financial Institutions Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, Jan. 24, 2024
• Starting Points For Rating Banks' Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt: Update On Chile, Jan. 18, 2024
• Argentina's Incoming Administration Faces Difficult Economic Policy Implementation, Nov. 21, 2023
• Despite Brazil's Consumer Debt Renegotiation Program, Lending Growth Won't Accelerate This Year, Aug. 9, 2024
• Global Bank Exposures To Commercial Property Are Top Of Worry List For Investors, Webcast Polls Show, Aug. 2, 2023
• Bulletin: Banco Inbursa's Proposed Acquisition Of Cetelem Won't Weaken Consolidated Capitalization Levels, Aug. 2, 2023
• Credit FAQ: A Closer Look At Insulated Entities In Financial Services, July 18, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Quarterly Monitor: 2Q 2023, July 12, 2023

Economic, sovereign, and other research

• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Monitor For Fourth-Quarter 2023 Published, Jan. 8, 2024
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Guatemala, Jan. 4, 2024
• Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Uruguay Life, Dec. 19, 2023
• Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Argentina Property/Casualty, Dec. 15, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Bolivia, Dec. 12, 2023
• Bulletin: Industry Risk Assessment Score On Bolivia BICRA Revised To '9' From '8' On Greater Margin Pressure, Dec. 6, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Paraguay, Nov. 30, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Peru, Nov. 30, 2023
• Criteria | Insurance | General: Insurer Risk-Based Capital Adequacy--Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 15, 2023
• Bulletin: Uruguay's Banking Industry Country Risk: Industry Risk Trend Revised To Positive On Lower Funding Risks, Nov. 6, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Chile, Oct. 31, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Brazil, Oct. 11, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Monitor For Third-Quarter 2023 Published, Oct. 5, 2023
• Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Quarterly Monitor: 3Q 2023, Oct. 5, 2023
• Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Colombia Property/Casualty, Aug. 2, 2023
• Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Colombia Life And Health, Aug. 2, 2023
• Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment: Jamaica Life, Aug. 2, 2023

Research updates

• Research Update: Banco Nacional de Mexico S.A. 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Affirmed After Group Status Revision; Outlook Remains Negative, Feb. 14, 2024
• Research Update: Seguros de Vida Suramericana And Seguros Generales Suramericana Ratings Affirmed Following Criteria Revision, Feb. 9, 2024
• Research Update: Haitong Banco de Investimento do Brasil S.A. Outlook Revised To Negative On Similar Action On Parent; Ratings Affirmed, Feb. 9, 2024
• Ratings On Two Paraguayan Financial Institutions Affirmed After Upgrade Of Sovereign; Outlooks Unchanged, Feb. 7, 2024
• Research Update: Davivienda's 'BB+/B' Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Still Negative; Stand-Alone Credit Profile Revised To 'bb+' From 'bbb-', Feb. 1, 2024
• Research Update: IDC Overseas Ltd. 'B/B' Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Remains Stable, Jan. 23, 2024
• New Management And Governance Scores Assigned To Three Latin American Asset Managers And Financial Services Finance Cos., Jan. 22, 2024
• Research Update: Cardif Colombia Seguros Generales Outlook Revised To Negative On Similar Action On Colombia; 'BBB-' Ratings Affirmed, Jan. 19, 2024
• Research Update: Seguros de Vida Suramericana, Seguros Generales Suramericana Outlooks Revised To Negative On Same Action On Colombia, Jan. 19, 2024
• Outlooks On Seven Banks Revised To Negative Following Similar Rating Action On Colombia; Ratings Affirmed, Jan. 19, 2024
• Outlooks On Seven Banks Revised To Negative Following Similar Rating Action On Colombia; Ratings Affirmed, Jan. 19, 2024
• Research Update: AXA Seguros 'A-' And 'mxAAA' Ratings Affirmed Following Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Remains Stable, Jan. 16, 2024
• Research Update: Chubb Seguros Mexico 'BBB+' And 'mxAAA' Ratings Affirmed Following Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Stable, Jan. 16, 2024
• Research Update: AIG Seguros Mexico 'A-' And 'mxAAA' Ratings Affirmed Following Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Remains Stable, Jan. 16, 2024
• Research Update: MetLife Seguros S.A. 'BBB+' And 'uyAAA' Ratings Affirmed On Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Stable, Jan. 11, 2024
• Research Update: Cardif Colombia Seguros Generales S.A. 'BBB-' Ratings Affirmed Following Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Stable, Jan. 10, 2024
• Banco Internacional del Peru S.A.A. - Interbank's Proposed Subordinated Notes Of Up To $300 Million Rated 'BB+', Jan. 4, 2024
• Banco de Credito del Peru's Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes Rated 'BBB', Jan. 3, 2024
• Research Update: Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. 'BBB' Rating Affirmed Following Revised Capital Model Criteria; Outlook Remains Stable, Dec. 29, 2023
• 16 Brazilian Financial Institutions Upgraded To 'BB' On Global Scale On Similar Action On Sovereign, Outlook Stable, Dec. 20, 2023
• Research Update: Banco Mercantil Santa Cruz S.A. Downgraded To 'CCC+' From 'B-' On Similar Action On Bolivia; Outlook Negative , Nov. 23, 2023
• Research Update: Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais S.A. - BDMG 'B' Global Scale Rating Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable , Nov. 16, 2023
• Research Update: Operadora de Servicios Mega Downgraded To 'CCC+' On Terminated Debt Exchange Offer; Outlook Remains Negative, Nov. 15, 2023
• Banco General And Banco Nacional de Panama Outlooks Revised To Negative On Same Action On Sovereign; Ratings Affirmed, Nov. 8, 2023
• Research Update: Banco del Estado de Chile 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Correction Of Criteria Misapplication; Outlook Still Negative , Nov. 3, 2023
• Research Update: Banco del Estado de Chile 'A/A-1' Ratings Affirmed On Correction Of Criteria Misapplication; Outlook Still Negative, Nov. 3, 2023
• Outlooks On Two Chilean Financial Institutions Revised To Negative Following Same Action On Sovereign, Oct. 20, 2023
• Research Update: Operadora de Servicios 'B' Ratings Affirmed On Proposed Exchange Offer, New Notes Rated 'B', Outlook Still Negative, Oct. 17, 2023
• Research Update: Banco Inbursa 'BBB/A-2' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable, Oct. 12, 2023
• Research Update: Sagicor Financial Co. Ltd. Upgraded To 'BBB' From 'BB+' Following Acquisition Of ivari, Outlook Stable, Oct. 4, 2023
• Research Update: Inversiones Atlantida, Banco Atlantida Outlooks Revised To Stable From Negative On Same Action On Sovereign, Oct. 3, 2023
• Research Update: ChubbSeguros Mexico S.A. 'BBB+' Global Scale And 'mxAAA' National Scale Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable , Oct. 2, 2023
• Credivalores - Crediservicios SAS 'CCC-' Ratings Withdrawn At The Issuer's Request, Sept. 28, 2023
• Research Update: BRB - Banco de Brasilia S.A. Outlook Revised To Negative On Capital, Profitability Strain; 'B+' Ratings Affirmed , Sept. 26, 2023
• Research Update: Nu Holdings Ltd. And Nu Financeira S.A. Rated 'BB-', Outlook Stable , Sept. 22, 2023
• Research Update: National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. Long-Term Ratings Raised To 'BB-' Following Same Action On Jamaica; Outlook Stable, Sept. 14, 2023
• Research Update: Vision Banco Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable On Pressured Asset Quality, 'B' Rating Affirmed, Sept. 5, 2023
• Research Update: Vision Banco Outlook Revised To Negative From Stable On Pressured Asset Quality, 'B' Rating Affirmed, Sept. 5, 2023
• Banco General And Banconal Outlooks Revised To Stable From Negative On Same Action On Sovereign; Ratings Affirmed, Aug. 14, 2023
• Bulletin: Banco Inbursa's Proposed Acquisition Of Cetelem Won't Weaken Consolidated Capitalization Levels, Aug. 2, 2023
• Promerica Financial Corp.'s Proposed Senior Secured Notes For Up To $300 Million Rated 'B+', July 25, 2023
• Multibank Inc. y Subsidiarias 'BB+/B' Ratings Withdrawn At Issuer's Request, July 18, 2023
• Research Update: Banco de Credito e Inversiones - Miami Branch Assigned 'A-' Long-Term Rating; Outlook Stable, July 17, 2023
• Banco Internacional's Proposed Senior Unsecured Notes For Up To $500 Million Rated 'BBB+', July 11, 2023
• Research Update: Engencap Holding Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Stable Funding; 'B+' Rating Affirmed, July 6, 2023
• Research Update: Credivalores - Crediservicios Ratings Lowered To 'CCC-' And Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Rising Liquidity Pressure, July 4, 2023