Local Currency Sovereign Defaults Were Up In 2023

Sovereign credit quality displayed a mixed picture in 2023: Foreign currency (FC) defaults decreased to three from five in 2022 while local currency (LC) defaults rose to six (three of them from Argentina) from one (see chart 1). All defaults were in emerging and frontier markets, where macroeconomic vulnerabilities and limited financing alternatives contributed to distressed exchanges (totaling six in the year) and missed payments (totaling three).

2023 was the first year LC defaults outnumbered FC defaults. Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Mozambique, and Argentina were downgraded to 'SD'. Over the last few decades, domestic debt grew exponentially for these sovereigns, representing a heavy burden that led to debt restructuring. We could see the same in the future, especially for emerging markets sovereigns that rely extensively on local currency borrowing.

Downgrades (including defaults) among sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings remained relatively stable, totaling 10 in 2023, from 11 in 2022. Persistent inflation and rising interest rates pressured the debt servicing ability of sovereigns that were facing weak current account positions and external funding needs.

Upgrades were up to 16, from 13 in 2022, as some sovereigns showed national economic growth and improved fiscal positions. In some cases, sovereigns also benefited from structural reforms.

81% of the rating actions occurred in emerging and frontier markets. This is broadly in line with the composition of our sample: Emerging and frontier markets are 73% of the sovereigns covered in this study, and 62% are rated speculative grade, meaning more prone to rating changes by definition.

A sovereign has flexibility in servicing its local currency debt based on the unique powers it enjoys within its own borders, particularly in its control of domestic financial and monetary systems. As a result, S&P Global Ratings assigns both FC and LC ratings (including public and confidential) to sovereigns. This study focuses on FC ratings unless otherwise noted.

2023 Defaults In Profile

S&P Global Ratings lowered its local currency rating on Sri Lanka to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CC' after it restructured some of its local-currency-denominated government bonds. We classified the debt restructuring as a distressed exchange (see "Sri Lanka Local Currency Ratings Lowered To ‘SD’ From ‘CC/C’," Sept. 19, 2023).

Between January and November 2022, Cameroon's government made late payments on long-term, foreign currency commercial debt. Full information on these payments incidents only became available in July 2023, and, as such, S&P Global Ratings lowered its FC ratings to 'SD' in August 2023 (see "Cameroon FC Ratings Temporarily Lowered To ‘SD’ On Payment Delays; LC Ratings Lowered To ‘CCC+’ On Liquidity Shortfalls," Aug. 9, 2023).

Mozambique's government made late payments on long-term, local currency commercial debt between February and May 2023, which led to the sovereign downgrade to 'SD' from 'B-' (see "Mozambique LC Ratings Temporarily Lowered To 'SD' On Delayed Payments; 'CCC+' FC Ratings Affirmed," June 21, 2023).

The Ethiopian government missed a $33 million coupon payment on its $1 billion Eurobond due Dec. 11 and wasn't in a position to repay the coupon within the 14-day grace period. As such, we lowered the FC ratings on Ethiopia to 'SD' from 'CCC' (see "Ethiopia Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered To ‘SD’ On Suspended Eurobond Coupon Payments," Dec. 16, 2023).

El Salvador conducted a pension debt exchange (that we viewed as distressed) on April 28, offering private pension funds a mix of new certificates to replace earlier sovereign financial obligations that had been partly issued after a debt exchange conducted in 2017. This was the only sovereign recording both an FC and LC credit rating default in 2023 (see "El Salvador Downgraded To ‘SD’ On Pension Debt Exchange; Distressed Exchange Subsequently Cured," May 10, 2023).

Argentina defaulted on its LC ratings three times in 2023. In all the cases, the distressed debt exchange arose from peso-debt exchanges offering a mix of nominal, inflation-linked, and dual peso securities to lessen peso-denominated maturities, pushing them to the second and third quarters of 2023 first, and then beyond 2023 political elections into 2024 and 2025. (For more, see "Argentina Local Currency Rating Lowered To ‘SD’ On Distressed Debt Exchange; ‘CCC+’ Foreign Currency Rating Affirmed," Jan. 7, 2023; "Argentina Local Currency Rating Lowered To ‘SD’ On Another Distressed Exchange; ‘CCC+’ Foreign Currency Rating Affirmed," March 9, 2023; and "Argentina Local Currency Rating Lowered To ‘SD’ On Another Distressed Exchange; ‘CCC-‘ Foreign Currency Rating Affirmed," June 8, 2023).

A Marked Increase In Speculative-Grade Sovereign Upgrades

Sovereigns faced tight financing conditions in 2023 as central banks kept on fighting stubborn inflation, especially in developed economies. Moreover, several sovereigns added incremental debt as they continued to cope with the double shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and high commodity prices (including for food and energy) that were amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war. This led to heightened refinancing risks, especially for sovereigns reliant on external funding, and to debt sustainability issues, in terms of debt servicing capacity.

In particular, Egypt, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka (all rated 'B-' or lower) have interest burdens exceeding 60% of total government revenue. Even if government borrowing costs have likely peaked, the effective rate of servicing existing debt will remain higher than the pre-pandemic level. And given larger government debt stocks, interest bills for sovereigns are set to stay elevated in the years to come (see "Sovereign Debt 2024: Borrowing Will Hit New Post-Pandemic Highs," Feb. 27, 2024).

However, sovereign credit quality showed some resilience in 2023--upgrades outnumbered downgrades 16 to 10 (see chart 8). In particular, speculative-grade upgrades totaled 11, the highest figure since 2011. Six were in Latin America, namely Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Costa Rica (upgraded twice).

Three of the upgrades were of sovereigns that were previously downgraded following the COVID-19 shock, namely Congo-Brazzaville, Costa Rica, and Oman. After three years, Congo-Brazzaville returned to its 'B-' rating from 'CCC+' on improved liquidity conditions. The remaining two sovereigns are now rated a notch higher than they were pre-pandemic:

• Oman was upgraded to 'BB+' from 'BB' on improved resilience of its national economy to external shocks; and
• Costa Rica was upgraded twice in the year, first to 'B+' from 'B' on improved fiscal execution (in February) and second to 'BB-' from 'B+' on declining external debt amid growth in the export base and accumulation of liquidity (in October).

The number of investment-grade upgrades was little changed since 2022 (see chart 8).

Meanwhile, the number of downgrades remained relatively stable in 2023 with 10, and this was in line with the past two years.

Around 81% of sovereign ratings were unchanged in 2023.

The upgrade-to-downgrade rate rose in 2023. The upgrade rate was 11.8%, up from 9.3% the prior year and higher than the average of 10.7%. The downgrade rate was 5.2%, up from 4.3% in 2022 but lower than the average of 9.6%.

See "Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions" for more information on 2023 sovereign upgrades and downgrades.

Table 1

Summary of sovereign net annual foreign currency rating changes (%)
Year	Issuers as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades*	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
1975	3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1976	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1977	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1978	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1979	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1980	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1981	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1982	13	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	7.69	92.31	N/A
1983	13	0.00	23.08	0.00	0.00	23.08	76.92	N/A
1984	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1985	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1986	14	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	14.29	85.71	N/A
1987	14	0.00	7.14	0.00	0.00	7.14	92.86	N/A
1988	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1989	25	4.00	8.00	0.00	0.00	12.00	88.00	2.00
1990	30	0.00	6.67	0.00	0.00	6.67	93.33	N/A
1991	31	19.35	6.45	0.00	0.00	25.81	74.19	0.33
1992	31	0.00	6.45	0.00	0.00	6.45	93.55	N/A
1993	37	8.11	8.11	0.00	0.00	16.22	83.78	1.00
1994	41	9.76	4.88	0.00	0.00	14.63	85.37	0.50
1995	49	22.45	2.04	0.00	0.00	24.49	75.51	0.09
1996	53	15.09	3.77	0.00	0.00	18.87	81.13	0.25
1997	62	11.29	6.45	0.00	0.00	17.74	82.26	0.57
1998	74	6.76	16.22	0.00	0.00	22.97	77.03	2.40
1999	79	11.39	8.86	3.80	0.00	24.05	75.95	0.78
2000	83	10.84	6.02	1.20	0.00	18.07	81.93	0.56
2001	88	18.18	10.23	1.14	0.00	29.55	70.45	0.56
2002	90	15.56	10.00	1.11	0.00	26.67	73.33	0.64
2003	93	18.28	5.38	2.15	1.08	26.88	73.12	0.29
2004	97	27.84	6.19	1.03	0.00	35.05	64.95	0.22
2005	106	16.04	2.83	1.89	0.00	20.75	79.25	0.18
2006	112	17.86	3.57	0.89	1.79	24.11	75.89	0.20
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	7.56	12.61	1.68	0.84	22.69	77.31	1.67
2009	123	1.63	16.26	0.00	1.63	19.51	80.49	10.00
2010	125	16.00	10.40	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.65
2011	128	14.84	20.31	0.00	1.56	36.72	63.28	1.37
2012	129	7.75	15.50	2.33	0.00	25.58	74.42	2.00
2013	130	4.62	12.31	2.31	2.31	21.54	78.46	2.67
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.76	1.52	24.24	75.76	1.64
2015	133	11.28	15.79	0.75	0.00	27.82	72.18	1.40
2016	136	6.62	16.91	1.47	1.47	26.47	73.53	2.56
2017	137	9.49	12.41	3.65	2.19	27.74	72.26	1.31
2018	133	10.53	7.52	0.75	0.00	18.80	81.20	0.71
2019	134	13.43	4.48	0.75	0.00	18.66	81.34	0.33
2020	139	2.16	15.83	4.32	0.00	22.30	77.70	7.33
2021	137	3.65	8.03	0.73	0.00	12.41	87.59	2.20
2022	140	9.29	4.29	3.57	0.71	17.86	82.14	0.46
2023	136	11.76	5.15	2.21	0.00	19.12	80.88	0.44
Weighted average		10.65	9.56	1.32	0.56	22.09	77.91	1.53
Median		7.75	6.45	0.00	0.00	18.87	81.13	0.65
Standard deviation		7.53	6.03	1.17	0.66	10.64	10.64	2.05
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	63.28	0.09
Maximum		27.84	23.08	4.32	2.31	36.72	100.00	10.00
Note: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the default column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1975-2023. N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

As part of our analysis of ratings performance, we measure rating transitions. To measure rating transitions over a one-year horizon, we use a static pool approach to compare the issuer credit ratings as of the beginning of the year with those at year-end. This approach measures the net rating migration for an issuer during the course of the year, rather than the number of times a rating changed.

For example, a rating that we lowered twice in 2023 would be counted as one issuer downgrade, rather than two individual downgrades.

Large rating transitions are not common among sovereigns. Most downgrades are typically one notch, or occasionally two. Sovereign upgrades within a calendar year seldom exceed one notch.

In 2023, for downgrades (excluding defaults), the average change was 1.29 notches, up from 2022 and the highest since 2016. Upgrades were, on average, 1.19 notches in 2023, in line with 2022 and the highest since 2014 (see chart 9).

Since 1975, 78% of sovereign rating actions within a single year have been rating movements of one notch (see chart 10), and the majority were upgrades (58%). However, when considering rating actions of two or more notches, downgrades overcome upgrades by a factor of four. These findings show that adverse credit shocks tend to materialize in a quicker and less predictable way than uplifts for sovereign credit ratings.

Many of the more pronounced multi-notch downgrades include sovereigns that defaulted from an already low rating category. In 2023, we recorded a six-notch downgrade for Cameroon from 'B-' to 'SD' and a five-notch downgrade for El Salvador from 'CCC+' to 'SD'.

Ginis And Ratings Performance

All of S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights' default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa.

To measure ratings performance, we use the Gini ratio, which is a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon, from one through seven years. The Gini ratio shows the ratio of actual rank-ordering performance to a theoretically perfect rank ordering. A Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a stronger relationship between lower rating categories and higher default rates (for details on the Gini methodology, see Appendix 1).

The one-year Gini ratio for FC ratings was 91.2% in 2023, above the weighted average value of 90.4%. This marks a substantial change over the past year, when the one-year Gini ratio was 61.6%, mainly as the consequence of the 2022 defaults of Russia (from 'BBB-'), Belarus, and Ukraine (both from 'B').

LC ratings also displayed solid performance in 2023, with a one-year Gini ratio of 90.4%, above the weighted average of 87.7% (see table 2) and significantly up from the 2022 level of 78%.

After the global financial crisis, sovereigns have, for the most part, shown very strong rating performance, with the Gini dipping below 90% during only three of the years for FC and LC ratings. Since sovereigns have a smaller number of rated entities than other sectors, credit events such as the global financial crisis in 2008, the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict that originated in 2022 had outsize effects on rating performance, especially when measured over periods longer than one year.

Table 2

Global average Gini coefficients for sovereign ratings
	--Time horizon--
(%)	One-year	Three-year	Five-year	10-year
Foreign currency
Weighted average	90.39	81.20	76.96	70.44
Average	88.31	79.61	74.21	68.83
Standard deviation	15.40	11.40	12.59	9.45
Local currency
Weighted average	87.74	75.83	69.72	59.80
Average	88.04	76.99	71.18	65.80
Standard deviation	11.40	16.36	18.10	19.06
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Eight Sovereigns Rated 'CCC+' Or Lower Point To Persistent Default Risk

The number of rated sovereigns has risen through the years as governments have become more prone to raising external financing through international bond markets. We've assigned FC ratings to 163 sovereigns since 1975. Much of the expansion in the number of rated sovereigns occurred between 1988 and 2012, when the tally grew by 105. Given the relatively small and static number of nations in the world, another such increase is unlikely. For that reason, the distribution of sovereign ratings will change almost exclusively with the movement of existing ratings.

As the number of rated sovereigns has climbed, so too has the share of speculative-grade ratings. Specifically, this has occurred since the late 1980s as countries with smaller and less diversified economies have sought credit ratings. By the end of 2023, 44% of sovereign FC ratings were speculative grade, down by 2% from 2022 (see chart 13).

Rated sovereigns have recorded at least one default annually for 12 consecutive years. The increase in defaults, in part, reflects the growing share of speculative-grade ratings as a percentage of sovereign ratings, above 40% since 2003.

Alongside the growth in speculative-grade ratings, the number of sovereigns rated at the lowest rating levels, 'CCC' or lower, remained at eight for the fourth consecutive year. These sovereigns are mainly in the Middle East and Africa (four) and Latin America (three).

This pool of sovereigns rated in the lowest rating category suggests defaults could remain elevated in the coming years. Indeed, as of December 2023, of the eight 'CCC' or lower rated sovereigns, only two have been included within the 'CCC'/'CC' pool for more than two years, as the constituents of the 'CCC' or lower pool has been shifting. And most of the defaults have come from issuers rated at in this 'CCC'/'CC' category.

As of year-end 2023, 15 sovereigns had different LC and FC sovereign credit ratings. For example, Colombia has a long-term LC rating of 'BBB-' and a long-term FC rating of 'BB+' (see table 3).

The number of these nonaligned sovereign ratings was down from 18 in 2022. S&P Global Ratings raised its LC rating on Guatemala to the same level as the FC rating ('BB'). The ratings on Mozambique and Argentina were realigned after their LC defaults, and S&P Global Ratings suspended both the long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Belarus on lack of information.

The only addition to the nonaligned sovereign ratings was Ukraine, whose FC rating was lowered to 'CCC', one notch lower than its LC counterpart.

For nonaligned sovereign ratings, the LC ratings tend to be higher than the FC ones. As specified in our "Sovereign Rating Methodology," we determine a sovereign LC rating by applying up to usually no more than one notch of uplift over the FC rating. Sovereign LC ratings can be higher than sovereign FC ratings because local-currency creditworthiness may be supported by the unique powers that sovereigns possess within their own borders, including issuance of the local currency and regulatory control of the domestic financial system.

Table 3

Sovereigns with different foreign currency and local currency ratings as of Dec. 31, 2023
Sovereign	Foreign currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)	Local currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)
Chile	A/Negative/A-1	A+/Negative/A-1
Colombia	BB+/Stable/B	BBB-/Stable/A-3
Czech Republic	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Ghana	SD/--/SD	CCC+/Stable/C
Lebanon	SD/--/SD	CC/Negative/C
Malaysia	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
Mexico	BBB/Stable/A-2	BBB+/Stable/A-2
New Zealand	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Peru	BBB/Negative/A-2	BBB+/Negative/A-2
Poland	A-/Stable/A-2	A/Stable/A-1
South Africa	BB-/Stable/B	BB/Stable/B
Sri Lanka	SD/--/SD	CCC+/Stable/C
Thailand	BBB+/Stable/A-2	A-/Stable/A-2
Ukraine	CCC/Negative/C	CCC+/Stable/C
Zambia	SD/--/SD	CCC+/Stable/C
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

The distribution of LC ratings is broadly in line with that of FC ratings (see chart 14). However, the number of 'CCC+' and lower rated LC sovereigns rose to 13 in 2023 from 11 in 2022. The five issuers rated with a 'CCC+' or lower LC, that is different from the FC, are Ghana, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, and Zambia (see table 3).

Sovereign Foreign Currency Rating Transition Rates

An analysis of transition rates for sovereigns shows that higher ratings are inversely related to the observed frequency of default. Furthermore, investment-grade-rated sovereigns tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative grade.

From 1975-2023, on average, 96.93% of sovereigns that were rated 'AAA' maintained that rating over a one-year horizon. Over a longer period, ratings tend to show higher rates of transition. For example, the stability rate for 'AAA' decreases over longer horizons yet remains elevated--at 90.95% over three years, 85.04% over five years, 72.29% over 10 years, and 66.28% over 15 years (see tables 4-8).

Despite higher rates of transition over longer horizons, very few of the 'AAA' rated sovereigns that transitioned over a 15-year period had ratings fell below the 'AA' category. On average, 28.8% of sovereigns rated 'AAA' transitioned to the 'AA' category over a 15-year horizon. Over the same period, less than 1.5% of 'AAA' sovereigns migrated to speculative grade, and none transitioned to 'SD'.

On the other hand, from 1975-2023 on average 87.01% of sovereigns rated 'BB' maintained their rating over a one-year horizon, but only 23.62% did not transition to another rating category over 15 years. Over that period, 'BB' rated sovereign credit rating quality improved in 41.7% of cases, worsened in 18.9%, and 15% defaulted.

Table 4

Sovereign foreign currency average one-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.93	3.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.92	94.04	2.88	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.58
A	0.00	3.62	91.15	4.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.08	90.96	4.26	0.35	0.18	0.18	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.87	87.01	5.52	0.71	0.36	0.53
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.77	87.47	3.68	2.72	1.36
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.06	45.83	33.33	2.78
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 5

Sovereign foreign currency average three-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.95	8.21	0.17	0.17	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17
AA	6.07	83.47	7.32	1.46	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.26
A	0.00	10.58	74.51	12.53	1.08	0.22	0.43	0.22	0.43
BBB	0.00	0.00	12.87	73.29	10.72	1.17	0.19	1.36	0.39
BB	0.00	0.00	0.19	16.57	65.90	14.10	0.38	1.90	0.95
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.30	10.76	69.85	5.15	10.45	3.48
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.21	19.64	50.00	7.14
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 6

Sovereign foreign currency average five-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	85.04	12.87	0.17	0.87	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35
AA	10.80	73.33	12.18	1.61	0.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.38
A	0.00	17.87	58.24	19.26	2.32	0.23	0.46	1.16	0.46
BBB	0.00	0.00	19.91	59.96	14.22	2.63	0.22	2.19	0.88
BB	0.00	0.00	1.43	21.43	54.08	16.53	1.02	4.08	1.43
B	0.00	0.00	0.17	2.22	12.65	58.80	4.62	16.75	4.79
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.65	16.28	9.30	58.14	11.63
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 7

Sovereign foreign currency average 10-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.29	22.87	1.16	1.36	0.58	0.39	0.00	0.00	1.36
AA	21.24	54.57	17.11	4.42	1.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88
A	1.47	23.53	40.00	22.35	5.29	1.76	0.59	4.41	0.59
BBB	0.00	3.90	26.73	40.84	16.52	3.60	0.30	5.41	2.70
BB	0.00	0.00	4.11	30.59	31.62	19.02	1.03	11.31	2.31
B	0.00	0.00	0.25	4.56	19.24	41.27	2.78	26.08	5.82
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.23	12.90	0.00	67.74	16.13
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 8

Sovereign foreign currency average 15-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.28	28.44	2.06	0.00	0.46	0.69	0.00	0.00	2.06
AA	28.79	40.86	14.79	12.84	1.95	0.39	0.39	0.00	0.00
A	3.13	26.56	37.89	14.84	3.13	5.47	0.39	8.59	0.00
BBB	0.00	8.72	29.82	30.73	13.76	2.75	0.46	8.72	5.05
BB	0.00	0.00	3.69	38.01	23.62	18.45	0.37	14.76	1.11
B	0.00	0.00	0.42	8.02	16.88	34.18	2.95	34.60	2.95
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	0.00	8.33	4.17	62.50	20.83
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Another gauge of ratings stability is the average time a sovereign spends at a particular rating. 'AAA' ratings are much more stable than any other rating category (see table 9). The 11 'AAA' sovereigns have averaged nearly 27.5 years at that rating level. The average number of years that each issuer has been at its current rating level tends to be higher for issuers in the higher rating categories.

One exception to this relative measure of stability is in the 'BB' category: Sovereigns in the 'BB' category have spent less time at this rating than 'B' category sovereigns have spent at 'B'. In part, this reflects recent additions to the 'BB' category, such as:

• Armenia (assigned first rating of 'B+' in October 2021 and upgraded to 'BB-' in August 2023),
• Jamaica (upgraded to 'BB-' in September 2023 after almost 10 years in the 'B' category),
• Cote d'Ivoire (assigned first rating of 'BB-' in July 2021), and
• Morocco and Colombia (downgraded to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' in April and May 2021, respectively).

Table 9

Average time spent at current rating as of Dec. 31, 2023
Rating category	Average years	Issuer count
AAA	27.49	11
AA	7.29	20
A	5.08	18
BBB	4.95	28
BB	3.66	21
B	4.12	31
CCC/C	1.11	8
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereign Local Currency Rating Actions And Transitions

In 2023, the number of positive rating actions was broadly in line with 2022, with speculative-grade upgrades doubling investment-grade upgrades (see chart 15). The number of downgrades remained around 10 while the number of defaults climbed to six, driving the LC default rate to 2.86%, the highest since 1993 (see table 10).

Table 10

Summary of sovereign net annual local currency rating changes (%)
Year	Issuers as of Jan. 1	Upgrades	Downgrades*	Defaults	Withdrawn ratings	Changed ratings	Unchanged ratings	Downgrade/upgrade ratio
1993	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1994	23	0.00	4.35	0.00	0.00	4.35	95.65	N/A
1995	26	3.85	3.85	0.00	0.00	7.69	92.31	1.00
1996	33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	N/A
1997	50	8.00	6.00	0.00	0.00	14.00	86.00	0.75
1998	64	3.13	28.13	0.00	0.00	31.25	68.75	9.00
1999	71	7.04	8.45	1.41	0.00	16.90	83.10	1.20
2000	80	11.25	6.25	1.25	0.00	18.75	81.25	0.56
2001	84	15.48	14.29	1.19	0.00	30.95	69.05	0.92
2002	88	9.09	15.91	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	1.75
2003	91	14.29	13.19	0.00	1.10	28.57	71.43	0.92
2004	97	17.53	10.31	1.03	0.00	28.87	71.13	0.59
2005	107	13.08	4.67	0.93	0.00	18.69	81.31	0.36
2006	112	13.39	3.57	0.89	1.79	19.64	80.36	0.27
2007	113	20.35	2.65	0.00	0.88	23.89	76.11	0.13
2008	119	6.72	13.45	0.84	0.84	21.85	78.15	2.00
2009	124	1.61	18.55	0.00	2.42	22.58	77.42	11.50
2010	125	14.40	12.00	0.80	0.00	27.20	72.80	0.83
2011	128	10.16	30.47	0.00	1.56	42.19	57.81	3.00
2012	129	6.98	18.60	0.78	0.00	26.36	73.64	2.67
2013	131	4.58	13.74	2.29	2.29	22.90	77.10	3.00
2014	132	8.33	13.64	0.00	1.52	23.48	76.52	1.64
2015	134	11.19	17.16	0.00	0.00	28.36	71.64	1.53
2016	137	7.30	18.25	0.00	1.46	27.01	72.99	2.50
2017	137	10.22	13.87	0.73	2.19	27.01	72.99	1.36
2018	135	9.63	7.41	0.74	0.00	17.78	82.22	0.77
2019	137	13.14	4.38	0.73	0.00	18.25	81.75	0.33
2020	140	2.14	18.57	1.43	0.00	22.14	77.86	8.67
2021	141	4.26	7.80	0.71	0.71	13.48	86.52	1.83
2022	142	9.86	7.04	0.70	1.41	19.01	80.99	0.71
2023	140	10.71	4.29	2.86	0.71	18.57	81.43	0.40
Weighted average		9.38	12.01	0.72	0.75	22.87	77.13	2.15
Median		9.09	10.31	0.71	0.00	22.14	77.86	1.10
Standard deviation		5.26	7.50	0.72	0.82	9.13	9.13	2.82
Minimum		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	57.81	0.13
Maximum		20.35	30.47	2.86	2.42	42.19	100.00	11.50
Note: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. All intermediate ratings are disregarded. *Excludes downgrades to 'SD', shown separately in the default column. Descriptive statistics at the bottom of the table based on data from 1993-2023. N/A--Not applicable. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.

The average number of notches of LC downgrades (excluding defaults) decreased to 1.17 in 2023 from 1.70 in 2022. The average notch change of LC upgrades in 2023 was stable around 1.20 (see chart 16).

Table 11

Sovereign local currency average one-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.32	3.68	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.33	92.46	5.10	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67
A	0.00	2.68	90.61	6.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.38
BBB	0.00	0.00	3.81	89.78	5.21	0.80	0.20	0.00	0.20
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.02	85.81	7.21	0.87	0.44	0.66
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.83	87.63	4.37	1.51	1.66
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.08	57.69	14.10	5.13
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 12

Sovereign local currency average five-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	82.17	16.14	0.21	1.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42
AA	6.01	66.67	22.13	3.01	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.64
A	0.00	14.00	59.33	20.00	3.78	0.22	0.44	1.11	1.11
BBB	0.00	0.00	15.83	57.29	18.84	5.53	0.25	1.51	0.75
BB	0.00	0.00	1.30	19.74	48.31	24.42	2.08	2.34	1.82
B	0.00	0.00	0.19	1.95	14.42	60.62	9.36	7.21	6.24
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.38	2.38	38.10	9.52	28.57	19.05
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 13

Sovereign local currency average 15-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Ratings 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	64.55	26.67	4.24	1.52	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.73
AA	1.69	38.20	31.46	20.79	2.25	1.69	1.12	2.81	0.00
A	2.01	20.48	33.73	13.25	9.64	6.43	0.00	9.64	4.82
BBB	0.00	2.23	18.44	44.69	20.67	10.06	0.00	3.35	0.56
BB	0.00	0.00	5.17	23.56	27.59	26.44	4.02	9.20	4.02
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.88	16.57	43.79	8.28	16.57	5.92
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	14.29	14.29	9.52	33.33	23.81
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Historical Sovereign Default Rates

Over our rating history, 29 sovereigns with a public FC or LC rating have defaulted from 1999 through 2023, and half of these have defaulted multiple times. In 2023, El Salvador recorded its third FC default, after defaulting twice in 2017.

Included among the FC defaults of past years are some sovereign members of monetary unions such as Greece and Cyprus within the eurozone (see table 14). In S&P Global Ratings' sovereign rating criteria, defaults of sovereign members of a monetary union are counted as FC defaults because the individual country has no sovereign control over the common currency. In line with this reasoning, the LC ratings on eurozone sovereigns converged with the (often lower) FC ratings when they joined the union.

Table 14

Sovereign foreign currency selective defaults
Sovereign	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default†	Rating three years before selective default†
Russia, first default	Jan. 27, 1999	Dec. 8, 2000	22 months	BB-	-
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Dec. 21, 1999	11 months	B+	B+
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Mar. 30, 1999	One day	B-	BBB
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Oct. 2, 2000	Six months	CCC+	BBB
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 01, 2005	54 months	BB	BB
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2002	Sep. 5, 2002	Four months	B-	CCC+
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Jul. 26, 2004	18 months	B	B
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Jun. 02, 2003	One month	BB-	BBB-
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Mar. 03, 2005	One month	B-	B
Dominican Republic	Feb. 1, 2005	Jun. 29, 2005	Five months	CCC	BB-
Belize, first default	Dec. 7, 2006	Feb. 20, 2007	Three months	CCC-	B+
Seychelles*	Aug. 7, 2008	-	-	B	-
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Mar. 20, 2013	Seven months	B-	B
Grenada, second default	Oct. 8, 2012	Oct. 16, 2012	One week	B-	B-
Greece, second default	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	-
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 03, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	May. 06, 2016	22 months	B-	B
Ukraine, first default	Sep. 25, 2015	Oct. 19, 2015	One month	CCC	B+
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 01, 2016	Apr. 15, 2016	15 days	B	B+
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Aug. 09, 2016	One week	B	-
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Nov. 22, 2019	34 months	B-	B+
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 23, 2017	Six days	B-	B-
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	May. 05, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Sept. 5, 2015	One month	B-	B+
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Venezuela, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	-	-	CCC	CCC+
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 11, 2019	Eighteen months	CCC+	B
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Dec. 30, 2019	Ten days	B	B-
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	-	-	B-	B-
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Five months	B	B
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	Three days	B	B
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Aug. 21, 2020	Nine days	B-	B-
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	-	-	CCC+	B
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	Dec. 06, 2023	38 months	B	B
Belize, fifth default	May. 24, 2021	Nov. 09, 2021	Five months	CCC	B-
Russia, second default	Apr. 08, 2022	-	-	BBB-	BBB-
Sri Lanka	Apr. 25, 2022	-	-	CCC+	B
Belarus	Aug. 03, 2022	-	-	B	B
Ukraine, second default	Aug. 12, 2022	Aug. 19, 2022	One week	B	B-
Ghana	Dec. 20, 2022	-	-	B-	B
El Salvador, third default	May. 09, 2023	May. 10, 2023	One day	B-	B-
Cameroon	Aug. 08, 2023	Aug. 10, 2023	Two days	B-	B-
Ethiopia	Dec. 15, 2023	-	-	CCC	B
Note: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. †Public rating captured. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 15

Sovereign local currency selective defaults
Sovereign	Selective default date	Emergence date	Time in selective default	Rating one year before selective default	Rating three years before selective default
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Jun. 12, 2001	26 months	BB	-
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Feb. 2, 2001	13 months	-	-
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Jun. 1, 2005	43 months	BBB-	BBB-
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Dec. 3, 2004	Three months	-	-
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Nov. 18, 2005	11 months	BB-	-
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Apr. 2, 2007	Four months	B-	BB-
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Jun. 15, 2009	Six months	B-	CCC+
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Feb. 24, 2010	One month	B	B
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	May. 2, 2012	Two months	BB+	A-
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	Dec. 18, 2012	Two weeks	CC	A-
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	-	-	-	-
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Mar. 06, 2013	22 days	B-	B-
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	-	-	B-	B-
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 03, 2013	Five days	BB+	A+
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	May. 05, 2017	15 days	B+	BB-
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 02, 2017	Oct. 03, 2017	One day	B+	BB-
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Nov. 16, 2018	Three months	CCC+	B
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	One day	B+	B-
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Sep. 07, 2020	Eight months	B	B-
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Sep. 01, 2020	Four months	B-	B
Suriname, second default	6/3/2021	Dec. 06, 2023	30 months	CCC+	B
Ghana	12/6/2022	Feb. 24, 2023	Three months	B-	B
Argentina, fourth default	Jan. 06, 2023	Jan. 09, 2023	Three days	CCC+	CC
Argentina, fifth default§	Mar. 09, 2023	Mar. 14, 2023	Five days	CCC+	-
El Salvador, third default	May. 09, 2023	May. 10, 2023	One day	B-	B-
Argentina, sixth default§	Jun. 08, 2023	Jun. 13, 2023	Five days	CCC+	-
Mozambique	Jun. 20, 2023	Jun. 21, 2023	One day	B-	B-
Sri Lanka	Sep. 19, 2023	Sep. 25, 2023	Six days	CCC-	B-
Note: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

During 1975-2023, no sovereign that was rated 'AAA' at the beginning of a year defaulted within the ensuing 15 years. Moreover, the cumulative default rates were generally higher at lower rating levels, as one would expect.

For example, from 1975-2023, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'A' category was only about 1.13%. By comparison, the five-year average cumulative default rate for sovereigns rated in the 'BBB' category was 2.57%; the 'BB' category, 3.87%; the 'B' category, 18.15%; and the 'CCC'/'CC' categories, 52.03%.

The 15-year cumulative default rate averaged 3.63% for sovereigns with investment-grade ratings and 31.66% for sovereigns with speculative-grade ratings. The same trends are generally true when calculating default rates disaggregated by rating category and confirm the non-linearity of the rating scale: The difference between the 15-year cumulative default rate of the 'A' category and the 'BBB' category is significantly smaller than the difference between the 'BB' and 'B' categories.

Lower ratings by rating category generally exhibit higher default rates over each time span (for example, as in the one- to 10-year time horizons shown in table 16). While this largely holds true, some exceptions occur, such as when the number of defaults is low or when the underlying population of issuers is very small--such as at the rating modifier level.

One exception is the cumulative default rates for sovereign LC ratings in the 'A' and 'BBB' categories over the eight- to 15-year horizon (see table 17). The 'A' category includes defaults of Greece, Cyprus, and Barbados, since these issuers had previously been rated in the 'A' category.

While the cumulative default rates for the 'A' and 'BBB' categories have declined in recent years, these defaults continue to have an outsize impact on the relatively small sample of 'A' issuers. (For more detail on the cumulative default rates at the rating modifier level, please see table 62).

Table 16

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.66	1.13	1.61	2.12	2.66	3.23	3.82	4.43	5.08	5.76	6.13	6.92
BBB	0.18	0.73	1.51	2.13	2.57	3.03	3.52	4.04	4.59	5.20	5.85	6.57	7.34	8.61	9.52
BB	0.36	1.28	1.85	2.44	3.87	5.36	6.91	8.55	9.77	10.55	11.10	11.70	12.34	13.02	13.40
B	2.72	6.73	10.81	14.62	18.15	21.18	24.39	27.40	30.00	32.31	34.81	37.24	39.29	41.56	44.09
CCC/CC	33.33	41.27	46.95	49.36	52.03	60.49	63.79	63.79	63.79	63.79	67.41	67.41	67.41	67.41	67.41
Investment grade	0.05	0.19	0.43	0.68	0.89	1.11	1.34	1.58	1.83	2.09	2.37	2.66	2.96	3.28	3.63
Speculative grade	3.36	6.27	8.92	11.28	13.84	16.35	18.79	21.06	22.93	24.45	26.07	27.55	28.86	30.28	31.66
All rated	1.32	2.51	3.66	4.71	5.79	6.86	7.90	8.89	9.72	10.43	11.18	11.88	12.53	13.22	13.90
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Generally, the cumulative default rates by rating category have been higher for FC sovereign credit ratings than for LC sovereign credit ratings (see tables 16 and 17). As our "Sovereign Rating Methodology" explains, we consider that--other things being equal--the probability of default on a sovereign's local currency obligation could be lower than on a foreign currency obligation. Furthermore, the LC sovereign default rates could also be understated because it is hard to detect forced rollovers of domestic bank debt or coerced exchanges of local law, local currency debt when domestic financial institutions hold the debt.

Table 17

Sovereign local currency cumulative average default rate* without rating modifiers (1993-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.85	1.34	1.87	2.43
A	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.63	1.08	1.54	2.04	2.56	3.11	3.99	4.61	5.25	5.94	6.69	7.52
BBB	0.00	0.42	0.87	1.10	1.36	1.62	2.19	2.49	2.82	2.82	2.82	2.82	2.82	2.82	2.82
BB	0.44	1.12	1.36	1.60	2.12	2.94	3.52	4.45	5.43	6.13	6.88	8.12	9.48	10.49	11.05
B	1.51	3.26	5.13	6.75	8.48	9.93	11.50	13.20	14.55	16.32	17.97	19.07	20.31	22.19	24.33
CCC/CC	14.10	18.47	23.46	27.49	32.02	39.31	41.94	41.94	41.94	41.94	45.57	45.57	45.57	45.57	45.57
Investment grade	0.00	0.10	0.27	0.44	0.62	0.80	1.06	1.27	1.49	1.72	1.96	2.22	2.50	2.80	3.12
Speculative grade	1.92	3.41	4.81	6.00	7.36	8.82	10.02	11.31	12.43	13.65	14.98	16.08	17.30	18.67	19.95
All rated	0.72	1.34	1.96	2.50	3.11	3.75	4.34	4.92	5.44	6.00	6.60	7.13	7.70	8.32	8.92
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Sovereigns that approach default usually experience multiple successive downgrades as the likelihood of default increases (see table 18). However, in 2023 Cameroon, Mozambique, and Ethiopia experienced a quick degradation in their sovereign credit quality, without downgrades within the 12 months before.

Table 18

Length of time to default
Government	Date of default	Date of initial rating	Highest rating before default	Last date of highest rating	Number of intermediate rating actions
Foreign currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Russia	Jan. 27, 1999	Oct. 07, 1996	BB-	Jun. 8, 1998	4
Pakistan	Jan. 29, 1999	Nov. 21, 1994	B+	May. 31, 1998	4
Indonesia, first default	Mar. 29, 1999	Jul. 20, 1992	BBB	Oct. 9, 1997	7
Indonesia, second default§	Apr. 17, 2000	Mar. 30, 1999	CCC+	Apr. 16, 2000	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 06, 2001	Aug. 25, 1993	BB	Nov. 13, 2000	7
Indonesia, third default	Apr. 22, 2001	Oct. 02, 2000	B-	May. 20, 2001	2
Paraguay	Feb. 13, 2003	Oct. 23, 1995	BB-	Feb. 3, 1999	3
Uruguay	May. 16, 2003	Feb. 14, 1994	BBB-	Feb. 13, 2002	7
Grenada, first default	Dec. 30, 2004	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-	Sep. 16, 2004	2
Venezuela, first default	Jan. 18, 2005	Oct. 05, 1977	AAA	Aug. 12, 1982	14
Dominican Republic	Feb. 01, 2005	Feb. 13, 1997	BB-	Jun. 9, 2003	5
Belize, first default	Dec. 07, 2006	Aug. 22, 2000	BB	Oct. 22, 2001	7
Seychelles*	Aug. 07, 2008	Sep. 14, 2006	B	July. 31, 2008	1
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-	Nov. 13, 2008	7
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	B+	Jul. 27, 2003	5
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Sep. 09, 1988	A+	Nov. 16, 2004	13
Mali	Mar. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Belize, second default	Aug. 21, 2012	Feb. 20, 2007	B	Aug. 3, 2011	4
Grenada, second default	Oct. 08, 2012	Nov. 18, 2005	B-	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Greece, second default	Dec. 05, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	Oct. 16, 2012	CCC+	Mar. 11, 2013	0
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Feb. 14, 1994	AA-	Nov. 8, 1998	12
Argentina, second default	Jul. 30, 2014	Jun. 01, 2005	B+	Aug. 10, 2008	8
Ukraine, first default	Sep. 25, 2015	Dec. 21, 2001	BB-	Jun. 11, 2008	14
Mozambique, first default	Apr. 01, 2016	Jul. 07, 2004	B+	Feb. 13, 2014	4
Congo-Brazzaville, first default	Aug. 02, 2016	Oct. 22, 2013	B+	Feb. 8, 2015	2
Mozambique, second default	Jan. 18, 2017	Apr. 15, 2016	B-	May. 26, 2016	2
Belize, third default	Mar. 17, 2017	Mar. 20, 2013	B-	Nov. 13, 2016	2
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BB+	May. 11, 2009	7
Congo-Brazzaville, second default	Aug. 01, 2017	Aug. 09, 2016	B-	Jul. 6, 2017	1
El Salvador, second default	Oct. 02, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Venezuela*, second default	Nov. 13, 2017	Mar. 03, 2005	BB-	Aug. 18, 2011	9
Barbados	Jun. 06, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	A-	Aug. 4, 2004	9
Argentina, third default	Aug. 29, 2019	May. 06, 2016	B+	Oct. 30, 2017	4
Argentina, fourth default§	Dec. 20, 2019	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-	Dec. 19, 2019	0
Lebanon	Mar. 11, 2020	Feb. 26, 1997	BB-	Feb. 04, 1998	9
Argentina, fifth default	Apr. 07, 2020	Dec. 30, 2019	CCC-	Apr. 06, 2020	1
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+	Aug. 11, 2015	6
Suriname, first default	Jul. 13, 2020	Nov. 23, 1999	BB-	Apr. 27, 2014	6
Belize, fourth default	Aug. 12, 2020	Mar. 23, 2017	B-	Apr. 15, 2020	2
Zambia	Oct. 21, 2020	Mar. 22, 2011	B+	Oct. 24, 2013	5
Suriname, second default	Nov. 06, 2020	Jul. 16, 2020	CCC	Nov. 05, 2020	0
Belize, fifth default	May. 24, 2021	Aug. 21, 2020	CCC+	Feb. 24, 2021	1
Russia, second default	Apr. 08, 2022	Dec. 08, 2000	BBB+	Dec. 07, 2008	15
Sri Lanka	Apr. 25, 2022	Dec. 08, 2005	B+	Feb. 28, 2018	7
Belarus	Aug. 03, 2022	Aug. 21, 2007	B+	Mar. 14, 2011	5
Ukraine, second default	Aug. 12, 2022	Oct. 19, 2015	B	Feb. 24, 2022	4
Ghana	Dec. 20, 2022	Sep. 04, 2003	B+	Aug. 26, 2010	6
El Salvador, third default	May. 09, 2023	Oct. 03, 2017	B-	May. 31, 2022	2
Cameroon	Aug. 08, 2023	Nov. 26, 2003	B	Apr. 09, 2020	4
Ethiopia	Dec. 15, 2023	May. 09, 2014	B	Feb. 11, 2021	3
Local-currency sovereign credit rating defaults
Dominican Republic	Apr. 9, 1999	Nov. 12, 1997	BB	Apr. 8, 1999	0
Suriname, first default	Jan. 1, 2000	Nov. 23, 1999	B	Dec. 31, 1999	0
Argentina, first default	Nov. 6, 2001	Sep. 01, 1994	BBB-	Nov. 13, 2000	6
Cameroon	Sep. 1, 2004	Nov. 26, 2003	B	Aug. 31, 2004	0
Grenada, first default	Jan. 1, 2005	Mar. 22, 2002	BB-	Sep. 16, 2004	3
Grenada, second default§	Dec. 1, 2006	Nov. 18, 2005	B-	Nov. 30, 2006	0
Ecuador, first default	Dec. 15, 2008	Aug. 25, 2000	B-	Nov. 13, 2008	6
Jamaica, first default	Jan. 14, 2010	Nov. 09, 1999	BB-	Jul. 27, 2003	6
Greece, first default	Feb. 27, 2012	Mar. 26, 1997	A+	Nov. 16, 2004	10
Greece, second default§	Dec. 5, 2012	May. 02, 2012	CCC	Dec. 4, 2012	0
Mali	Dec. 31, 2012	May. 05, 2004	B	Jul. 02, 2008	0
Jamaica, second default	Feb. 12, 2013	Feb. 24, 2010	B-	Feb. 11, 2013	0
Grenada*, third default	Mar. 12, 2013	Apr. 02, 2007	B-	Oct. 7, 2012	2
Cyprus	Jun. 28, 2013	Jul. 16, 1996	AA+	Nov. 8, 1998	14
El Salvador, first default	Apr. 20, 2017	Aug. 26, 1996	BBB+	Jan. 22, 2001	7
El Salvador, second default§	Oct. 2, 2017	May. 05, 2017	CC	Oct. 1, 2017	0
Barbados	Aug. 7, 2018	Dec. 17, 1999	AA-	Aug. 19, 2003	11
Argentina, second default	Aug. 29, 2019	Jun. 01, 2005	B+	Oct. 30, 2017	12
Argentina, third default	Jan. 21, 2020	Aug. 30, 2019	CCC-	Jan. 20, 2020	2
Ecuador, second default	Apr. 13, 2020	Jun. 15, 2009	B+	Aug. 11, 2015	6
Suriname, second default	Jun. 03, 2021	Feb. 02, 2001	BB	Apr. 27, 2014	8
Ghana	Dec. 06, 2022	Sep. 04, 2003	B+	Mar. 15, 2009	5
Argentina, fourth default	Jan. 06, 2023	Sep. 07, 2020	CCC+	Nov. 15, 2022	1
Argentina, fifth default	Mar. 09, 2023	Jan. 09, 2023	CCC-	Mar. 08, 2023	0
El Salvador, third default	May. 09, 2023	Oct. 03, 2017	B-	May. 31, 2022	2
Argentina, sixth default	Jun. 08, 2023	Mar. 14, 2023	CCC-	Jun. 07, 2023	0
Mozambique	Jun. 20, 2023	Jul. 07, 2004	B+	Feb. 13, 2014	3
Sri Lanka	Sep. 19, 2023	Dec. 08, 2005	BB-	Feb. 28, 2012	9
Note: Includes sovereigns that were not rated at the time of default. Mali defaulted in 2012; we withdrew its rating in 2008. *The rating on Seychelles was withdrawn while it was still in default. The rating on Grenada was withdrawn while it was still in default in 2014. Cameroon and Grenada (excluding the third default) cured their local currency defaults before the ratings were changed. §These defaults followed a prior default that occurred within the stated horizon. When an issuer reemerges from default, we treat it as a new issuer. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

On average, for sovereigns that eventually default, there is a correlation between the initial rating and the time to default--the higher the rating, the longer the time to default. For example, for the entire pool of sovereign defaults (1975-2023), the average times to default for issuers that were originally rated in the 'AA' and 'BBB' categories were 19.37 years and 15.08 years, respectively, from the initial ratings, whereas issuers in the 'B' rating category had an average time to default of only 8.90 years.

Tables 19 and 20 display the medians, averages, and standard deviations for the time to default from the original rating for FC and LC ratings. Note that when an issuer emerges from a default (including selective default), we treat it as a new entity with a newly assigned initial rating.

Tables 21 and 22 present the average and median times to default from the date that each entity received each unique rating in its path to default, excluding the original rating.

Generally speaking, the average time to default for each rating category is longer when based on the initial rating on a sovereign than it is based on post-original ratings.

Table 19

Time to default from original rating--foreign currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	27.29	27.29	-	1
AA	19.37	19.37	-	1
A	18.47	18.47	-	1
BBB	15.08	15.08	11.86	2
BB	9.98	7.75	7.74	8
B	8.90	7.97	6.25	29
CCC/CC	1.90	0.41	3.34	11
Total	8.57	6.89	7.50	53
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 20

Time to default from original rating--local currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	-
AA	17.79	17.79	1.19	2
A	14.92	14.92	-	1
BBB	13.92	13.92	9.52	2
BB	7.32	2.78	9.08	3
B	9.53	8.66	7.78	11
CCC/CC	2.68	0.50	3.62	10
Total	8.00	5.94	7.56	29
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 21

Time to default from post-original ratings--foreign currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	22.43	22.43		1
A	9.32	8.72	6.10	1
BBB	9.23	7.95	6.38	4
BB	7.44	5.50	6.80	4
B	5.37	3.88	5.19	23
CCC/CC	1.25	0.38	2.72	11
NR	3.74	3.74		1
Total	4.79	2.21	5.68	45
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 22

Time to default from post-original ratings--local currency ratings (years)
	Average	Median	Standard deviation	Number of defaults
AAA	-	-	-	0
AA	14.10	14.10	0.75	1
A	7.96	8.57	4.38	2
BBB	4.55	2.20	3.62	0
BB	6.35	6.06	5.30	3
B	5.33	4.23	4.55	9
CCC/CC	1.09	0.52	1.70	3
NR	4.50	4.50		1
Total	4.59	2.61	4.67	19
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 1: Gini Ratios

In addition to examining the absolute performance of ratings, we examine their relative performance. We utilize the Lorenz curve, a graphical representation of the proportionality of a distribution, as one measure of relative ratings performance, and we summarize this via the Gini coefficient.

The Lorenz curve is plotted with the x-axis showing the cumulative share of issuers, arranged by rating, while the y-axis represents the cumulative share of defaulters, also arranged by rating. For both axes of the Lorenz curve, the observations are ordered from the low end of the ratings scale ('CCC'/'CC') to the high end ('AAA').

As an example, if 'CCC'/'CC' rated entities made up 10% of the total population of issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. If S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings only randomly approximated default risk, the Lorenz curve would fall along the diagonal. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. If the ratings were perfectly rank ordered so that all defaults occurred only among the lowest-rated entities, the curve would capture all of the area above the diagonal on the graph (the ideal curve), and the Gini coefficient would be 1.

Lorenz curves for FC and LC sovereign credit ratings resemble the ideal Lorenz curves, though the small sample size results in less accurate readings than in larger sectors. A larger number of data points would register a smooth line that curves as in chart 18. Many of the other charts show lines that take sharp turns, resulting in angles rather than curves.

Chart 17 shows that sovereigns rated 'CCC+' and lower accounted for 2.02% of ratings and above 50% of defaults over a one-year horizon. Sovereigns rated 'B+' and lower accounted for 22.59% of sovereign ratings and yet around 93.62% of defaults. Because there are no defaults at any rating level higher than 'BBB-' over a one-year horizon, the chart shows a strong relationship between speculative-grade ratings and defaults. Fewer defaults come from the higher-rated cohorts of sovereigns.

Table 23

Sovereign one-year Lorenz curve values
(%)	Y-axis: cumulative proportion of defaults	X-axis: cumulative proportion of ratings
AAA	100.00	100.00
AA+	100.00	82.65
AA	100.00	77.86
AA-	100.00	72.93
A+	100.00	68.08
A	100.00	64.13
A-	100.00	58.94
BBB+	100.00	54.15
BBB	100.00	49.92
BBB-	100.00	44.93
BB+	97.87	38.34
BB	97.87	34.05
BB-	97.87	28.90
B+	93.62	22.59
B	93.62	14.69
B-	78.72	7.20
CCC/CC	51.06	2.02
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Over the one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, weighted average Gini coefficients for FC sovereign credit ratings are higher than those of LC ratings. FC and LC Gini coefficients are based on two separate datasets. FC ratings present a larger sample, with ratings over a longer time horizon and more defaults. The rating history for LC ratings begins in 1993, so credit events such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2012 have a higher weighting within the shorter sample period of LC ratings (see charts 21-24).

Appendix 2: Regional Ratings Distribution And Rating Actions

Regional ratings distribution

For this report, we segment most of the sovereigns S&P Global Ratings has ratings on into five regions:

• Middle East and Africa (including North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa),
• Latin America (including the Caribbean),
• Asia-Pacific,
• Eurozone, and
• Central and Eastern Europe and CIS--the former Soviet republics.

In this study, we also include a broad designation for emerging and frontier markets, consisting of 103 sovereigns (currently and formerly rated), which come from all of the above categories except the eurozone (see table 24).

Table 24

Governments by region
Middle East and Africa	Latin America	Central and Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of Independent States*	Asia-Pacific	Eurozone	Emerging and frontier markets
Abu Dhabi	Argentina	Albania	Australia	Austria	Abu Dhabi	El Salvador	Papua New Guinea
Angola	Aruba	Armenia	Bangladesh	Belgium	Albania	Ethiopia	Paraguay
Bahrain	Bahamas	Azerbaijan	Cambodia	Cyprus	Angola	Fiji	Peru
Benin	Barbados	Belarus	China	Estonia§	Argentina	Gabon	Philippines
Botswana	Belize	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Cook Islands	Finland	Armenia	Georgia	Poland
Burkina Faso	Bermuda	Bulgaria	Fiji	France	Aruba	Ghana	Qatar
Cameroon	Bolivia	Croatia	Hong Kong	Germany	Azerbaijan	Grenada	Ras Al Khaimah
Cape Verde	Brazil	Czech Republic	India	Greece	Bahamas	Guatemala	Romania
Congo	Chile	Estonia§	Indonesia	Ireland	Bahrain	Honduras	Russia
Congo, D.R.	Colombia	Georgia	Japan	Italy	Bangladesh	Hong Kong	Rwanda
Cote d'Ivoire	Costa Rica	Hungary	Korea	Latvia§	Barbados	Hungary	Saudi Arabia
Egypt	Curacao	Kazakhstan	Malaysia	Lithuania§	Belarus	India	Senegal
Ethiopia	Dominican Republic	Latvia§	Mauritius	Luxembourg	Belize	Indonesia	Serbia
Ghana	Ecuador	Lithuania§	Mongolia	Malta	Bermuda	Iraq	Sharjah
Iraq	El Salvador	Montenegro	New Zealand	Netherlands	Bolivia	Israel	Singapore
Israel	Guatemala	North Macedonia	Pakistan	Portugal	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Jamaica	South Africa
Jordan	Honduras	Poland	Papua New Guinea	Slovakia§	Botswana	Jordan	Sri Lanka
Kenya	Jamaica	Romania	Philippines	Slovenia§	Brazil	Kazakhstan	Suriname
Kuwait	Mexico	Russia	Singapore	Spain	Bulgaria	Kenya	Taiwan
Lebanon	Montserrat	Serbia	Sri Lanka		Burkina Faso	Korea	Tajikistan
Morocco	Nicaragua	Slovakia§	Taiwan		Cambodia	Kuwait	Thailand
Mozambique	Panama	Slovenia§	Thailand		Cameroon	Lebanon	Togo
Nigeria	Paraguay	Tajikistan	Vietnam		Cape Verde	Malaysia	Trinidad and Tobago
Oman	Peru	Turkiye			Chile	Mexico	Tunisia
Qatar	Suriname	Ukraine			China	Mongolia	Turkiye
Ras Al Khaimah	Trinidad and Tobago	Uzbekistan			Colombia	Montenegro	Turks and Caicos
Rwanda	Turks and Caicos				Congo, D.R.	Montserrat	Uganda
Saudi Arabia	Uruguay				Congo	Morocco	Ukraine
Senegal	Venezuela				Costa Rica	Mozambique	Uruguay
Sharjah					Cote d'Ivoire	Nicaragua	Uzbekistan
South Africa					Croatia	Nigeria	Venezuela
St. Helena					Curacao	North Macedonia	Vietnam
Togo					Dominican Republic	Oman	Zambia
Uganda					Ecuador	Pakistan
Zambia					Egypt	Panama
*Commonwealth of Independent States, the alliance of 12 of the former republics of the Soviet Union. §Included in two European regions. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Most new sovereign ratings since 1998 have come from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and these regions have added the most speculative-grade ratings over the past decade.

The number of sovereign ratings in Central and Eastern Europe and CIS has also risen substantially over the past 20 years, totaling 24 at the end of 2023.

The eurozone and Asia-Pacific displayed a higher concentration of investment-grade-rated issuers than other regions, namely 100% and 67%, respectively. These two regions have been relatively stable in terms of the number of rated sovereigns. For the eurozone (see table 24), S&P Global Ratings has rated all 19 of those sovereigns since at least 1997, while Asia-Pacific has had 20-23 since 2006.

Much of the growth in sovereign ratings has come from regions with higher concentrations of lower-rated issuers. This has weakened overall sovereign credit quality, even as the number of rated countries globally has increased.

Middle East and Africa

At the end of 2023, 31 sovereigns in the Middle East and Africa were rated between 'AA' and 'CCC/CC', while three were in default. This compares to nine rated sovereigns in 1998. Most of the issuers in the region were rated speculative grade (22), with 15 of those in the 'B' category or lower (see chart 25).

Latin America

The number of Latin American sovereign credit ratings has increased steadily since 1992, and at least 50% of the rated issuers have been speculative grade in all but one year (2014). At the end of 2023, 28 Latin American sovereigns had FC sovereign credit ratings, and 17 of these were rated speculative grade. Among the 11 investment-grade sovereigns, the 'BBB' category was the largest, with nine (see chart 26).

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific had 21 rated sovereigns between 'AAA' and 'CCC/CC', with an additional issuer (Sri Lanka) in default. The region displayed a broad mix of sovereigns with different credit quality. 67% of rated sovereigns were investment grade, with two 'AAA' rated sovereigns: Australia and Singapore. Among speculative-grade sovereigns in the region, the 'B' rating category was the largest share of issuers at the end of 2023, with four out of seven (see chart 27).

Central and Eastern Europe and CIS

At the end of 2023, there were 24 rated sovereigns from Central and Eastern Europe and CIS, equally distributed between investment grade and speculative grade. 46% of rated sovereigns were in the 'BBB' and 'BB' rating categories (see chart 28).

Eurozone

Among our regional categories, the eurozone contains the fewest sovereign credit ratings, with 19, and this number has not changed since 1997. With the 2023 upgrade on Greece, all eurozone sovereign ratings were investment grade as of December 2023. Moreover, more than half of eurozone sovereign credit ratings were either within the 'AA' or 'A' categories (see chart 29).

Emerging and frontier markets

At the end of 2023, there were 91 rated emerging and frontier markets, of which 62% were speculative grade. The number of rated emerging market sovereigns has more than doubled since 1998, and the majority of this region's ratings have been speculative grade in each of those years. The 'B' rating category is the largest within emerging and frontier markets, accounting for about 50% of speculative-grade issuers. The number of emerging and frontier markets rated 'CCC+' and lower rose to eight in 2023, from one in 2018 (see chart 30).

Regional rating movement

Middle East and Africa.  Middle East and African sovereigns recorded four downgrades and three upgrades in 2023, a net negative count in rating actions, as in eight of the last 10 years. The four downgrades, besides Cameroon's and Ethiopia's defaults, were of Uganda and Egypt.

S&P Global Ratings downgraded Uganda to 'B-' from 'B' on mounting debt servicing costs given the rising proportion of funding from more expensive commercial sources. Egypt was downgraded to 'B-' from 'B' owing to delays in implementing structural reforms, which exacerbated external pressure.

On the other side, in addition to Oman and Congo-Brazzaville, Saudi Arabia was upgraded to 'A' from 'A-' on non-oil economic growth and widening of the non-oil tax base, alongside significant social liberalization.

Downgrades have been more dominant in the region since the global financial crisis, with 58 downgrades and only 14 upgrades over the past 10 years (see chart 31).

Latin America.  In Latin America, upgrades outnumbered downgrades 5 to 3 (see chart 32).

Upgrades last year were:

• Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-' on a significant overhaul of the tax system, which will likely translate into productivity gains over the long term;
• Costa Rica upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+' on stronger financial performance amid dynamic economic growth;
• Guatemala upgraded to 'BB' from 'BB-' owing to cautious fiscal and monetary policies that have stabilized the economy and should support continued GDP growth;
• Jamaica upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+' on its expanding economy, supporting government finances and propelling a lower debt burden; and
• Uruguay upgraded to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' on enhancements to its fiscal policy framework, including the likely passage of social security reform.

The downgrades were:

• El Salvador defaulted and Argentina (FC) downgraded to 'CCC-' from 'CCC' on heightened risks and vulnerabilities surrounding the repayment of foreign currency commercial debt; and
• Bolivia downgraded twice to end at 'CCC+' from 'B' owing to weakening external liquidity, impairing the government's capacity to make timely debt service payments.

Asia-Pacific.  S&P Global Ratings did not upgrade or downgrade any sovereigns in the Asia-Pacific region in 2023 (see chart 33).

Central and Eastern Europe and CIS.  Two upgrades and two downgrades occurred in the region in 2023 (see chart 34):

• Armenia upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+' on improvements in GDP per capita and fiscal performance;
• Bosnia and Herzegovina upgraded to 'B+' from 'B' on resilient economic performance and an overall favorable consolidated general government fiscal position;
• Hungary downgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BBB' due to persistent high inflation, exchange rate volatility, and external pressures; and
• Ukraine downgraded to 'CCC' from 'CCC+' following the external debt restructuring plan in mid-2024 announced by the government, as the country is strained by the ongoing war with Russia.

Eurozone.  Over the past 10 years, eurozone sovereign rating actions have been largely positive, as the region has recovered from the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, the region has not recorded a single downgrade in the past eight years (see chart 35).

Two upgrades occurred in 2023: Greece to 'BBB-' from 'BB+' following the continuous improvements on its budgetary position, and Ireland to 'AA' from 'AA-' on strong fiscal performance boosted by solid tax revenue growth.

Emerging and frontier markets.  Emerging and frontier markets accounted for nine of the 10 2023 downgrades, including the three defaults.

The relative equilibrium between upgrades and downgrades mimics 2022 rating activity and is clearly rosier than 2020-2021, when the region experienced 38 downgrades and only one upgrade (see chart 36).

The 10th downgrade was Guernsey, which is one of a small number of countries that are not assigned a specific region (see table 25). S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating to 'A+' from 'AA-' owing to fiscal deficits and drawdowns from its financial assets expected to last throughout 2026, as the government pushed ahead with its significant capital spending program.

Table 25

Ratings on other sovereigns, including the U.S., the U.K., and Canada, as of Dec. 31, 2023
Sovereign	Foreign currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)	Local currency ratings (long-term/outlook/short-term)
U.S.	AA+/Stable/A-1+	AA+/Stable/A-1+
U.K.	AA/Stable/A-1+	AA/Stable/A-1+
Canada	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Denmark	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Norway	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Sweden	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Switzerland	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Iceland	A+/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Liechtenstein	AAA/Stable/A-1+	AAA/Stable/A-1+
Andorra	BBB+/Positive/A-2	BBB+/Positive/A-2
Guernsey	A+/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Jersey	AA-/Stable/A-1+	AA-/Stable/A-1+
Falkland Islands (The)	A+/Stable/A-1	A+/Stable/A-1
Madagascar	B-/Stable/B	B-/Stable/B
Note: The sovereign ratings on Isle of Man, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Mali and Seychelles were withdrawn. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Appendix 3: Methodology And Definitions

This study is based on long-term sovereign credit ratings. The methodology tracks rating changes over time and includes revisions to 'SD' (selective default). An 'SD' rating is more common for sovereign issuers than a 'D' (default) rating because defaulting sovereigns often continue to service some of their debt. This study is based on issuer credit ratings as opposed to issue ratings. In other words, we look at the ratings on the central governments themselves, not the ratings on the individual securities these governments might have issued.

Our metrics treat all issuers equally and are not adjusted for size or influence. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, a default by Argentina counts the same as a default by Mali, even though the latter has a much smaller economy. Our study tracks defaults on a sovereign's commercial debt, including both bonds and bank loans.

Withdrawn ratings (as indicated with the abbreviation NR, which stands for "not rated") are included until the date of withdrawal. We record defaults after the date of withdrawal if we obtain knowledge of those defaults.

There are 208 total rating records for sovereigns, including defaulted ratings.

S&P Global Ratings generally defines "default" as the failure to meet a principal or interest payment on the due date contained in the original terms of a debt issue (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions," June 9, 2023). However, questions can arise when applying this definition to sovereign obligations. We consider a sovereign to be in default under any of the following circumstances:

• For local currency and foreign currency bonds, notes, and bills issued by the central government and held outside the public sector of the country, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or tenders an exchange offer of new debt with less favorable terms than the original issue.
• For private-sector bank loans incurred by the central government, a sovereign default occurs when the central government either fails to pay scheduled debt service on the due date or negotiates with the bank creditors a rescheduling of principal or interest at less favorable terms than in the original loan.

Emergence from default also can be a complicated analytical issue for sovereigns. Sovereigns often undertake debt restructurings through exchange offers that, we find, rarely close the books on the restructured debt. For a number of reasons, including difficulty in contacting all debtholders and holdouts seeking payment in accordance with original terms, we have observed that participation in sovereign distressed debt exchanges usually does not reach 100%.

In contrast, for debt restructurings in the U.S. and many other jurisdictions, all obligations are typically addressed in bankruptcy reorganization. An entity reorganizing outside of bankruptcy generally must continue payments on the holdouts' debt or face the prospect of an involuntary bankruptcy filing.

Less common among sovereign defaults is the repudiation of debt, which most often follows a revolutionary change of regime (as occurred in Russia in 1917, China in 1949, and Cuba in 1960). S&P Global Ratings takes no position on the propriety of government debt defaults, repudiations, and the like. S&P Global Ratings also does not take a position on the course of negotiations (or the absence thereof) between creditors and the government to work out debt that is repudiated or the parameters of any settlements between creditors and governments that could occur.

Instead, our issuer credit ratings are forward-looking opinions about an obligor's overall creditworthiness. We analyze historical defaults to form our own view on the extent that they could affect the likelihood of the sovereign defaulting in the future.

In general, S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit ratings apply only to debt that the present government acknowledges as its own. If there is no resolution of a default through the courts or by the parties involved, S&P Global Ratings eventually withdraws the defaulted ratings based on the diminished prospects for resolution and the defaulted ratings' lack of relevance in the context of the market.

For example, S&P Global Ratings has no ratings on direct and guaranteed debt of the government of China issued prior to the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 because S&P Global Ratings first rated China in 1992, long after the new government repudiated pre-1949 debt. The default is included in our sovereign default survey, which covers defaults by rated and unrated issuers.

Our dataset includes sovereign credit ratings that were withdrawn following a default. In those cases, if the sovereign has been rated again, a new record would have been established, and the new rating would not be connected to the defaulted rating. This creates more than one record for defaulted sovereigns.

Static pool methodology

S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. All issuers included in the study are assigned to one or more static pools. When an issuer defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issuer belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates, such as by ensuring that default rates account for rating migration and can be calculated across multiperiod time horizons. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information.

Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data. These methods may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of sovereigns in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1975, to avoid continuity problems.

For instance, the 1976 static pool consists of all sovereigns rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1976. Adding those sovereigns first rated in 1976 to the surviving members of the 1976 static pool forms the 1977 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1977 static pool through the ratings on these entities as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1977. We used the same method to form static pools for 1978-2023.

Consider the following example for annual static pools: A sovereign is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1986 and downgraded to 'B' in 1988. This is followed by a default in 1993. We would include this hypothetical issuer in the 1987 and 1988 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1989-1993 pools with the 'B' rating. Yet each of the seven pools in which this sovereign was included (1987-1993) would record its 1993 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Default rate calculations

Cumulative default rates average the experience of all static pools in a select period of time by calculating marginal weighted average default rates conditional on survival (survivors being non-defaulters) for each possible time horizon and accumulating marginal default rates. We calculate conditional-on-survival default rates by dividing the number of issuers in a static pool that default within a specific time horizon by the number of issuers that survived (did not default) up to that point in time. In the context of sovereign ratings, we treat the defaults of governments that selectively default as complete defaults.

Transition analysis

Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. An issuer that remained rated for more than one year was counted as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issuer continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If the rating on the issuer was withdrawn in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1975 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had 48 one-year transitions, while sovereigns first rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had only one. Table 26 displays the summary of one-year transitions in the investment-grade and speculative-grade rating categories. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to 'SD', plus an entry for NR.

The only ratings considered in these calculations are those on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if an entity was rated 'A' on Jan. 1, 2015, and was downgraded to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this entity would be included only in the percentage of issuers that began the year at 'A' that ended the year at 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons.

If an issuer defaults, we consider the rating as of Dec. 31 of that particular year to be 'D'. Similarly, if we withdraw our rating on an issuer, the methodology considers the issuer as of Dec. 31 of that year to be not rated.

Multiyear transitions

Multiyear transitions were also calculated for periods of two to 15 years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1975-2020 with the ratings at the end of the years 1978-2023. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions.

We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period.

Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages.

For inclusion in the matrix, the issuer must be in at least one year. In the case of the three-year matrix, we must have rated the sovereign by Jan. 1, 2020; in the case of the 15-year matrix, we must have rated it by Jan. 1, 2009. Thus, there are progressively fewer observations the longer the transition period is, given the growth of sovereign ratings and, of course, given that there will be fewer static pools for each added set of 12 monthly cohorts in the matrix.

Annualized 12-month cohorts

In past studies, we have also included calculations of sovereigns' rating performance based on annualized 12-month cohorts. The static pools were created with monthly start dates, and rating transitions were measured over 12-month increments for each monthly static pool. Unless otherwise noted in this study, we've utilized an annual static pool methodology to calculate average transition rates, default rates, and Gini ratios. An annual static pool groups all rated entities as of Jan. 1 of a given year and compares those ratings with those on the entities as of Dec. 31 of the same year (for a one-year horizon).

In contrast, an annualized 12-month static pool approach would compare the ratings on entities as of the beginning of each month with the ratings on those entities 12 months later (for a one-year horizon). Transition and default rates calculated with this type of annualized monthly static pool approach can be found in tables in Appendix 4 (see table 26-43 for transition rates and tables 52-53, 59, and 61-67).

Gini ratios based on this annualized monthly static pool approach diverge somewhat from the Ginis shown in table 3 (which utilizes the annual static pool approach). Annualized monthly static pools yield average Gini ratios for FC ratings of 88.30%, 78.24%, 72.49%, and 68.39% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively. For LC ratings, annualized monthly static pools result in average Gini ratios of 85.66%, 72.37%, 67.95%, and 64.29% over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year horizons, respectively.

Rating modifiers

Our calculations of upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, consider the specific rating as opposed to the rating category (for example, 'A-', 'A', and 'A+' rather than the 'A' rating category). However, for practical reasons, some transition tables may use rating categories. This means that actions such as a downgrade to 'AA-' from 'AA' or an upgrade to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-' are not considered transitions because the ratings remained within the same rating category.

Appendix 4: Additional Exhibits

Transition rates

Table 26

Sovereign foreign currency average one-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.89	3.02	0.01	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.96	94.01	2.91	0.26	0.23	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.59
A	0.00	3.69	91.07	4.60	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31
BBB	0.00	0.00	4.13	91.13	4.09	0.36	0.13	0.15	0.01
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.74	86.93	5.95	0.50	0.42	0.47
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	4.34	87.64	3.60	2.94	1.46
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.64	44.84	31.57	2.95
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 27

Sovereign foreign currency average three-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.74	8.18	0.08	0.16	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42
AA	6.22	83.07	7.63	1.75	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.09
A	0.00	11.06	73.67	12.51	1.56	0.09	0.26	0.42	0.42
BBB	0.00	0.00	13.23	73.29	10.79	0.96	0.23	1.20	0.30
BB	0.00	0.00	0.19	16.63	65.29	14.03	0.68	2.10	1.08
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	10.42	70.56	4.80	10.43	3.55
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.64	25.36	18.46	47.99	7.54
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 28

Sovereign foreign currency average five-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.94	12.73	0.13	0.82	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60
AA	10.85	73.05	12.51	1.90	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10
A	0.00	17.92	57.23	19.90	2.70	0.12	0.28	1.41	0.46
BBB	0.00	0.04	20.89	59.43	14.28	2.22	0.31	2.06	0.78
BB	0.00	0.00	1.37	21.62	53.35	16.78	1.09	4.22	1.57
B	0.00	0.00	0.03	2.21	12.69	59.08	4.53	16.46	5.00
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.39	3.71	18.55	10.35	55.27	11.72
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 29

Sovereign foreign currency average 10-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.64	22.62	1.10	1.17	0.46	0.49	0.00	0.00	1.53
AA	21.12	54.37	16.95	5.03	1.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66
A	1.38	23.45	40.07	22.25	5.64	1.50	0.35	4.79	0.58
BBB	0.00	3.91	27.36	41.00	16.55	3.04	0.41	5.13	2.61
BB	0.00	0.00	4.32	30.64	31.46	18.81	1.20	11.17	2.39
B	0.00	0.00	0.04	4.43	19.45	40.94	2.69	26.71	5.73
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10	2.21	15.19	0.28	63.81	17.40
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 30

Sovereign foreign currency average 15-year transition rates (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.31	28.67	1.78	0.00	0.41	0.72	0.00	0.00	2.10
AA	28.76	40.03	15.29	12.75	2.54	0.26	0.20	0.17	0.00
A	3.18	26.70	38.38	14.89	3.32	4.59	0.51	8.42	0.00
BBB	0.00	8.71	30.44	30.33	13.56	2.87	0.58	8.83	4.69
BB	0.00	0.00	4.07	38.42	23.42	17.77	0.23	15.02	1.07
B	0.00	0.00	0.08	8.75	16.23	35.10	2.42	34.75	2.69
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00	0.00	6.37	1.12	65.92	23.60
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 31

Sovereign local currency average one-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.23	3.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	1.36	92.30	4.97	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.68
A	0.00	2.72	90.75	5.81	0.29	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.29
BBB	0.00	0.00	3.94	89.88	5.41	0.47	0.10	0.00	0.21
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.87	85.60	7.59	0.79	0.57	0.57
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.53	88.10	3.98	1.63	1.77
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.59	57.11	11.56	4.74
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 32

Sovereign local currency average five-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.62	16.47	0.15	1.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75
AA	5.91	66.53	22.63	3.07	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.30
A	0.00	13.68	58.61	20.66	4.03	0.51	0.26	1.34	0.90
BBB	0.00	0.00	16.41	57.13	19.27	4.49	0.61	1.26	0.83
BB	0.00	0.00	1.30	19.35	47.59	25.23	1.87	2.66	2.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.17	1.76	14.56	61.58	8.60	6.81	6.52
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.29	2.26	39.01	11.29	26.08	18.07
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 33

Sovereign local currency average 15-year transition rates (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA	A	BBB	BB	B	CCC/CC	SD	NR
AAA	63.97	27.12	3.94	1.70	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.84
AA	2.42	36.02	32.51	20.74	2.90	1.38	1.09	2.94	0.00
A	1.64	20.60	33.79	13.57	9.95	5.85	0.24	9.46	4.91
BBB	0.00	1.95	18.85	45.46	20.50	9.47	0.00	3.71	0.05
BB	0.00	0.00	5.07	23.14	29.07	26.43	4.11	8.88	3.30
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.20	15.41	46.02	6.97	16.02	5.38
CCC/CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.35	14.29	8.16	11.43	33.06	25.71
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 34

Sovereign foreign currency average one-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.89	2.62	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	5.97	85.08	6.12	1.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.19
AA	0.00	6.44	85.51	6.30	0.49	0.39	0.10	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	8.40	82.52	7.13	0.15	0.44	0.15	0.00	0.15	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59
A+	0.00	0.00	0.06	11.62	76.22	8.21	1.76	0.97	0.12	0.55	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.43
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.11	12.06	77.92	5.52	1.62	0.74	0.93	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88	11.23	78.22	6.49	0.39	1.46	0.63	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.01	11.50	72.14	11.22	2.23	0.56	0.22	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.65	16.26	69.66	10.44	0.87	0.10	0.00	0.44	0.19	0.10	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.27	14.06	75.49	6.22	1.94	0.25	0.07	0.14	0.11	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.35	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	19.58	68.11	9.21	1.05	0.17	0.06	0.00	0.17	0.33	0.00	0.44	0.22	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	14.92	70.81	10.76	1.73	0.65	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.09	0.09
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	10.63	73.44	11.00	1.07	0.41	0.15	0.11	0.15	0.15	0.81	1.07
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	1.02	9.67	70.01	14.38	2.46	0.34	0.18	0.12	0.15	0.58	1.02
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.64	12.71	69.07	9.14	2.07	0.89	0.19	0.16	2.55	2.58
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.05	13.23	68.70	5.76	1.57	0.62	0.43	7.18	0.48
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.64	2.18	22.36	45.64	6.55	2.18	0.00	17.27	2.18
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.84	12.27	0.00	27.61	4.91	4.29	41.72	7.36
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	84.78	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 35

Sovereign foreign currency average three-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	90.74	6.10	1.34	0.73	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42
AA+	17.74	62.03	13.44	4.41	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.48	0.00	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.43
AA	0.73	15.20	63.48	13.95	2.56	1.04	1.04	0.73	0.26	0.68	0.00	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	3.28	17.71	55.25	13.94	2.05	2.61	0.17	0.83	1.83	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.89
A+	0.00	0.00	4.24	27.21	41.61	15.03	1.67	3.06	2.16	2.09	0.70	1.18	0.00	0.14	0.14	0.00	0.21	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.76	25.90	45.23	8.92	5.32	3.26	2.97	0.82	0.14	0.10	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.29	0.19	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52	5.08	22.20	50.93	12.40	2.75	2.28	0.31	1.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.73	1.19
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.29	6.73	16.90	41.07	19.36	11.12	1.44	0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.06
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.44	3.52	10.95	19.97	38.12	13.53	7.32	1.76	0.99	1.16	0.28	0.06	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.21	0.17
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	2.94	9.65	23.94	42.00	10.62	5.35	0.97	0.46	0.58	0.15	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	1.70	0.54
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.72	2.03	7.78	32.48	30.98	16.03	4.37	1.91	1.44	0.60	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.32	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	1.80	9.28	19.57	37.88	19.82	8.01	0.78	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	1.26	0.44
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.45	4.30	19.89	40.52	14.86	6.41	3.45	0.89	0.08	0.24	0.20	3.33	2.35
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.55	1.54	3.24	11.67	42.51	23.81	7.78	0.99	1.09	0.48	0.61	3.75	1.91
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66	0.45	6.84	16.47	37.12	15.92	2.42	1.55	0.31	0.10	11.02	7.15
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.79	3.38	5.46	26.03	34.93	6.93	0.68	0.11	0.45	20.51	0.39
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	0.49	5.90	7.86	20.39	24.08	2.46	1.72	0.00	25.31	11.30
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.82	0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.55	0.81
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.83	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 36

Sovereign foreign currency average five-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating five years later --
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	84.94	8.31	2.94	1.48	0.00	0.09	0.04	0.60	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60
AA+	24.57	47.51	18.75	6.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.62	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.51
AA	6.09	15.09	47.72	17.03	6.89	2.62	3.19	0.68	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.45	7.97	20.57	37.02	17.42	4.31	4.95	0.71	1.16	2.06	0.00	1.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.86
A+	0.00	1.90	9.00	32.54	23.06	12.24	1.74	5.29	4.42	5.13	0.87	1.18	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.00	2.29	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	1.77	12.61	23.96	29.84	9.42	5.72	4.86	6.89	1.22	1.47	0.10	0.00	0.15	0.00	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.35	1.37	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.88	9.19	21.65	34.00	14.45	5.92	5.70	1.33	1.33	0.39	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.83	1.27
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	5.17	7.89	17.54	31.07	18.29	12.98	4.89	0.82	0.48	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.48	0.07
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.40	8.65	13.22	19.70	20.14	10.69	9.39	5.06	2.35	1.61	2.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.04	1.67
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	4.20	7.23	13.50	20.55	29.77	10.47	4.76	2.42	1.17	0.82	0.48	0.61	0.09	0.00	0.04	3.07	0.61
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.62	3.29	2.48	20.86	22.66	15.77	15.33	8.81	4.16	0.62	1.99	1.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	2.30	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	1.90	4.66	12.91	15.57	29.56	18.34	10.66	1.64	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.10	2.31	0.46
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.72	0.95	4.15	8.84	21.73	23.62	12.58	8.21	6.81	0.45	0.81	0.00	0.14	7.30	3.70
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.30	0.46	2.84	1.18	2.05	11.53	31.78	23.21	10.81	1.71	0.80	0.19	0.57	9.48	3.03
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.12	1.06	0.55	1.73	9.89	15.57	24.99	14.03	3.00	1.73	0.28	0.08	17.03	9.81
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.93	1.39	2.32	6.23	10.53	24.24	20.13	4.64	0.66	0.13	0.40	27.68	0.33
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.61	0.00	4.91	3.68	6.44	13.50	8.90	6.13	1.23	0.00	35.58	18.40
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.04	0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	83.02	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.30	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 37

Sovereign foreign currency average 10-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.64	13.08	6.81	2.72	0.74	0.10	0.26	1.00	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.46	0.00	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.53
AA+	31.84	26.43	25.85	10.03	0.20	0.85	0.65	0.78	0.46	1.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.69
AA	18.07	21.26	16.51	11.52	19.18	2.53	1.04	1.71	1.86	2.83	0.00	3.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	9.44	8.69	7.65	32.96	11.71	9.73	10.29	1.04	1.89	4.06	2.27	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	5.90	1.45	17.35	4.89	16.02	10.01	11.35	4.67	11.68	11.01	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.34	0.00
A	0.12	1.62	11.03	19.18	13.40	7.86	16.93	6.41	3.35	3.12	0.98	2.77	1.62	3.24	0.17	0.00	0.17	0.23	0.00	0.40	7.39	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	1.03	11.61	12.71	9.92	21.60	10.07	9.63	11.09	6.54	2.28	0.66	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10	1.69
BBB+	0.00	0.00	2.34	4.79	2.02	11.81	18.83	17.77	5.64	13.19	8.40	3.83	4.79	0.00	2.23	0.64	1.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.02	0.11
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.63	6.10	6.57	9.62	8.91	7.04	16.58	11.26	5.16	5.55	3.67	4.93	0.55	1.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	5.47	6.80
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.65	17.81	6.66	13.92	13.92	20.22	11.44	3.89	2.59	0.29	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.60	0.83
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.95	2.74	6.62	9.35	8.82	20.53	7.91	8.06	10.57	4.41	3.95	4.79	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.83	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.63	0.38	0.00	7.66	14.19	14.44	6.21	12.12	17.07	14.94	5.71	0.69	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.96	0.56
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	2.37	9.47	6.60	6.73	15.95	8.91	5.79	8.41	6.73	1.00	1.06	0.25	0.25	20.06	6.17
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00	3.53	3.00	2.05	4.16	7.48	19.92	18.70	10.64	1.58	0.74	0.21	0.05	22.18	5.64
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.28	0.64	1.58	3.22	13.35	18.79	13.00	7.85	1.70	1.23	0.00	0.12	27.81	8.43
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	1.86	5.92	15.56	13.24	3.95	4.53	16.72	1.51	0.35	0.00	0.35	34.49	0.58
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.61	0.00	3.21	0.00	0.00	2.41	3.21	9.24	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.00	54.62	25.30
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	70.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 38

Sovereign foreign currency average 15-year transition rates with rating modifier (1975-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	66.31	15.67	8.30	4.70	0.82	0.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.08	0.41	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.10
AA+	37.63	20.46	20.38	11.15	3.21	0.69	1.83	3.21	1.30	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	27.11	11.42	5.52	11.91	16.75	0.97	0.19	6.00	8.52	6.68	2.32	2.03	0.00	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	14.31	12.12	5.40	16.50	16.93	9.34	3.36	3.50	10.51	1.46	1.02	3.65	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.00	0.44	0.44	0.00	0.00	0.73	0.00
A+	7.09	5.24	5.39	12.17	7.86	20.03	13.25	4.01	5.55	9.24	4.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.01	0.00
A	3.71	2.29	11.45	12.56	12.56	6.64	20.93	8.69	0.08	2.61	0.32	0.79	0.55	2.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.98	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	3.68	26.04	19.98	2.88	11.53	6.46	3.78	6.56	2.49	0.70	1.69	7.06	2.09	0.60	1.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.98	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	3.53	11.72	10.43	10.27	12.68	13.96	10.59	3.05	1.61	0.80	7.70	1.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	11.72	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	7.94	8.19	12.16	6.20	11.54	7.20	6.58	9.18	1.99	7.57	2.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.33	13.15
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.21	11.36	14.66	10.67	4.86	21.42	7.72	6.85	1.56	0.09	1.30	4.08	0.52	0.09	0.00	0.61	9.71	1.30
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.90	6.56	0.00	9.74	16.72	22.67	7.59	0.51	6.15	2.26	9.13	1.95	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.82	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.90	10.10	13.80	23.26	3.07	7.84	11.90	12.71	6.94	0.81	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.03	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.38	0.00	0.00	11.77	5.74	0.99	8.41	8.21	16.32	8.51	4.95	5.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	24.83	3.26
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.00	0.00	1.91	4.77	4.19	4.86	10.68	3.43	18.11	5.53	9.25	2.10	0.29	0.00	0.00	32.70	2.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.89	3.02	3.70	4.19	3.21	11.88	13.83	10.81	2.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.88	4.77
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.45	5.65	3.01	10.73	6.97	13.56	10.17	12.99	0.94	0.56	0.00	0.19	32.77	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	60.33	34.24
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.30	30.23	2.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	58.14	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180-month cohort between 1975 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 39

Sovereign local currency average one-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	96.23	2.61	1.04	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	5.31	82.29	7.60	2.66	0.15	0.00	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.77
AA	0.00	2.99	86.45	7.83	0.57	0.57	0.72	0.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	5.96	81.39	10.27	0.20	0.60	0.84	0.00	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60
A+	0.00	0.00	0.59	7.02	78.94	9.65	2.00	0.93	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	10.89	74.71	10.16	2.73	0.68	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	13.59	72.06	10.47	1.06	1.20	0.58	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.87	9.31	73.02	11.29	3.28	1.11	0.53	0.14	0.00	0.19	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.96	11.34	71.39	13.56	1.14	0.60	0.18	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.60
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	1.80	10.82	74.35	9.07	2.29	0.54	0.54	0.15	0.15	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.05
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.14	13.38	69.61	11.04	3.36	0.00	0.51	0.00	0.11	0.23	0.00	0.40	0.17	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	15.26	64.65	12.57	2.15	1.41	0.87	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.21	0.94
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.10	8.44	72.66	12.29	2.52	0.64	0.32	0.55	0.00	0.23	0.46	0.78
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	1.31	9.60	70.33	14.20	2.43	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.15	0.45	1.23
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	1.13	10.66	70.46	10.18	2.25	0.82	0.00	0.17	1.02	3.18
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.58	2.06	12.24	70.76	7.25	1.58	0.14	0.91	3.98	0.48
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	3.14	27.84	48.63	6.67	3.14	1.37	6.67	2.35
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.69	22.47	1.12	32.02	12.36	3.93	17.42	8.99
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.18	14.12	0.00	54.12	2.35	14.12	14.12
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.04	16.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	44.57	25.00	1.09
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 12-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 40

Sovereign local currency average three-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	88.39	7.11	3.09	0.61	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52
AA+	15.13	56.29	9.53	11.93	0.24	1.28	1.12	1.84	0.00	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.16
AA	0.79	3.81	71.28	15.26	2.75	1.40	2.02	0.95	1.01	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	1.84	13.02	51.79	21.56	3.41	3.97	1.51	0.22	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.90
A+	0.00	0.00	1.97	21.16	45.72	17.76	5.92	2.85	1.59	0.05	0.38	0.93	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.93	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.31	20.09	45.11	15.12	9.79	4.56	1.28	0.87	0.15	0.10	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.31	0.21	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.51	8.82	23.21	38.98	15.46	3.55	4.00	0.30	2.58	0.30	0.00	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.71	1.22
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.21	5.24	16.07	39.53	14.84	12.53	5.90	1.03	0.51	0.00	0.62	0.82	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.36	0.15
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	4.44	18.93	41.75	18.52	10.47	1.80	0.83	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.21	2.43
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.11	4.90	19.48	45.08	13.13	5.29	4.06	1.00	2.62	0.61	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.06	1.34	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.97	3.16	8.56	16.70	39.47	18.28	8.50	1.21	1.46	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.09	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.18	2.65	8.01	19.76	24.03	19.47	10.29	1.69	7.94	1.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.69	2.06
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	2.63	3.04	13.26	42.36	18.27	9.67	3.54	1.01	1.01	0.00	0.46	2.02	1.97
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.34	1.56	2.61	12.30	45.87	23.21	6.91	1.22	0.67	0.00	0.13	1.60	3.33
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.93	1.94	6.67	14.00	39.29	16.95	3.80	2.68	0.93	0.34	3.95	8.31
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.40	2.54	2.54	3.47	23.60	43.20	9.25	0.69	0.58	2.89	10.12	0.40
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.30	0.52	0.52	4.95	15.63	30.73	20.31	2.60	1.56	0.00	9.90	11.98
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.54	0.00	3.85	1.54	16.92	13.85	5.38	0.00	22.31	2.31	31.54	0.77
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.89	0.00	0.00	7.55	0.00	26.42	0.00	11.32	52.83
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.98	16.98	11.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.75	33.96	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 36-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 41

Sovereign local currency average five-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating five years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	81.62	10.64	4.69	1.15	0.00	0.11	0.04	0.75	0.00	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75
AA+	18.33	42.87	8.68	17.09	1.51	2.92	1.24	1.77	2.21	0.97	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.39
AA	2.46	2.58	58.89	16.86	9.85	2.83	4.43	0.74	0.37	0.98	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.45	3.24	16.12	33.20	25.37	7.77	7.70	1.75	0.00	0.97	0.00	1.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.88
A+	0.00	0.00	5.90	27.61	28.38	15.74	7.99	6.14	2.98	1.49	0.00	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.01	0.00	0.12	0.00	0.00	1.73	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.78	5.92	13.73	33.82	16.35	9.60	7.31	5.80	1.34	2.12	0.45	0.00	0.39	0.00	0.17	0.11	0.00	0.39	1.51	0.22
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.40	15.62	20.36	23.41	14.81	6.31	6.70	3.48	2.01	1.52	0.05	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.82	2.40
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.91	9.79	14.99	22.18	12.50	15.93	9.57	2.38	1.38	0.44	2.21	0.94	0.00	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.39	0.17
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.66	6.97	21.74	29.13	11.95	13.20	5.23	4.65	2.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	2.07
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	2.54	1.40	4.44	18.79	37.02	12.76	4.70	5.71	2.86	1.84	2.60	0.63	0.76	0.00	0.13	3.05	0.63
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.42	5.16	14.58	13.30	30.49	14.13	11.71	2.16	0.70	2.04	1.02	0.83	0.00	0.13	1.34	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.29	4.29	7.85	9.95	15.13	11.97	12.62	17.15	2.91	12.38	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.86	2.27
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.75	1.84	2.47	3.22	12.99	29.08	18.68	11.61	8.16	1.26	1.32	0.00	0.29	4.43	3.62
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.00	0.48	1.38	1.47	4.23	10.31	33.46	26.52	10.41	1.52	0.90	1.28	0.19	2.61	4.90
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.13	0.86	1.07	0.73	3.22	11.13	13.80	24.42	18.06	4.73	2.36	0.99	0.00	6.58	11.78
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.35	0.35	2.17	4.41	4.97	6.51	24.49	26.24	10.29	1.19	0.63	4.27	13.37	0.35
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.58	0.63	0.63	0.00	2.52	4.42	17.67	18.93	5.99	3.15	1.89	0.32	23.34	18.93
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88	7.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.77	31.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.81	0.00	32.74	8.85
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	90.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.41	43.24	10.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.54	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 60-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 42

Sovereign local currency average 10-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	72.53	13.87	5.42	2.95	1.34	0.13	0.33	1.28	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.95
AA+	8.64	18.65	23.78	9.14	9.76	8.51	1.25	5.01	3.38	8.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.25
AA	3.19	3.69	32.91	14.69	24.35	5.79	4.62	2.02	2.10	3.19	0.00	3.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	5.85	1.98	9.08	36.06	16.91	5.13	11.06	1.80	1.53	5.31	3.96	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.00	0.27	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.00
A+	0.15	2.08	19.81	13.65	10.91	11.35	11.35	8.23	8.23	3.71	4.30	0.82	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.75	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	3.60	6.64	7.99	19.22	17.67	6.22	5.80	4.95	0.85	7.49	2.40	3.96	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.49	7.77	4.52
A-	0.00	0.00	1.07	5.67	3.29	17.15	20.60	14.32	6.97	9.80	7.73	2.45	2.22	0.08	1.61	0.46	0.46	0.69	0.00	0.15	1.91	3.37
BBB+	0.00	0.00	1.15	4.31	14.01	10.99	6.32	3.45	12.57	14.08	16.24	6.25	5.82	1.15	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	1.65	1.72
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.21	5.64	0.00	12.31	16.23	30.15	4.95	0.92	6.33	11.28	3.11	0.58	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	1.61
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.02	4.89	2.04	7.23	18.53	30.04	3.87	1.83	5.40	1.63	6.01	7.54	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.67	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.34	0.47	3.69	13.75	13.35	9.74	13.43	13.20	13.51	6.68	4.01	2.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.63	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.06	0.64	2.13	5.32	12.45	4.15	12.02	1.17	14.04	13.09	14.68	9.36	2.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.57	2.98
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.58	6.23	0.18	5.61	7.72	8.51	16.58	15.79	10.35	2.46	1.93	4.30	0.61	11.14	7.02
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.51	1.97	0.80	2.26	3.21	7.30	25.40	17.66	20.95	3.36	0.73	1.97	0.15	2.70	11.02
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	2.40	2.74	0.94	3.41	18.10	15.56	12.02	12.76	3.74	1.14	0.00	3.61	12.36	10.82
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.53	0.84	5.16	9.48	15.48	4.74	0.56	8.37	19.11	3.21	2.65	0.00	0.70	26.78	1.39
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.16	1.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.59	3.45	23.71	0.00	0.00	0.43	1.29	37.50	27.16
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.00	0.00	2.67	0.00	1.33	21.33	2.67	22.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.33	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	3.85	57.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.77	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 120-month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 43

Sovereign local currency average 15-year transition rates with rating modifier (1993-2023*)
(%)	--Rating 15 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	63.97	15.95	8.19	2.98	2.02	1.57	0.35	1.25	0.00	0.45	0.00	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.84
AA+	0.18	6.03	22.70	6.56	10.99	16.13	6.74	12.59	4.96	9.22	1.24	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.00	0.53	0.53	0.00	0.00	0.89	0.00
AA	1.93	6.74	13.36	16.25	23.59	4.57	6.74	1.81	10.59	7.46	2.89	2.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.56	0.00
AA-	4.78	9.41	10.39	16.43	21.77	2.53	4.35	7.30	9.69	0.00	0.00	0.98	0.00	0.00	2.95	0.84	0.84	1.26	0.00	0.28	6.18	0.00
A+	4.71	2.91	21.97	11.23	3.01	9.03	13.44	9.43	3.01	6.42	5.32	4.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.42	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.91	9.86	9.33	14.74	4.77	2.55	2.01	3.82	4.03	1.91	8.06	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.41	12.83
A-	0.00	0.00	1.50	9.96	11.56	15.20	15.74	5.35	3.96	2.89	6.10	2.57	2.03	4.50	1.07	3.85	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.11	10.81	2.14
BBB+	0.00	0.00	2.79	1.18	6.55	16.52	11.48	5.58	16.42	18.24	5.36	8.05	5.15	1.39	0.00	1.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	2.13	1.74	7.17	16.67	43.41	9.30	1.55	2.13	12.79	0.58	2.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.37	0.00	5.67	5.48	2.74	25.59	4.94	3.29	22.67	3.47	11.33	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.53	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.74	8.84	13.13	12.50	4.42	15.40	9.97	4.42	7.07	2.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.23	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	4.68	12.39	2.11	2.42	14.95	14.05	9.97	10.57	16.62	2.27	1.96	0.00	0.60	3.17	3.47
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.39	6.58	1.35	2.90	11.99	7.93	5.03	11.99	9.86	10.25	4.26	0.58	4.26	0.39	14.12	8.12
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	4.41	5.39	2.45	7.68	2.94	27.29	12.25	14.38	1.14	0.00	0.98	0.00	13.40	7.19
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.58	5.45	1.61	3.97	4.46	11.15	15.74	22.43	3.97	0.50	1.49	0.87	17.10	6.69
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.96	6.44	15.59	9.16	4.95	14.85	0.99	11.63	0.74	0.74	3.22	9.90	17.82	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.80	4.79	1.20	0.00	10.78	40.72	37.72
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.24	1.72	0.00	29.31	3.45	0.00	6.90	22.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.97	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Average transitions over each 180 month cohort between 1993 and 2023 annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 44

Sovereign foreign currency ratings one-year most recent transition matrix (2023)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	22.22	66.67	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	80.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	71.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	54.55	18.18	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	91.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	42.86	14.29	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 45

Sovereign foreign currency ratings three-year most recent transition matrix (2021-2023)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	8.33	25.00	50.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	85.71	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	55.56	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	61.54	15.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	27.27	45.45	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	0.00	7.69	53.85	23.08	0.00	7.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	8.33	8.33	16.67	25.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	54.55	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.27	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	14.29	0.00	14.29	0.00	28.57	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 46

Sovereign foreign currency ratings 10-year most recent transition matrix (2014-2023)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	76.92	15.38	7.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	20.00	40.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
AA	0.00	16.67	66.67	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	30.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	11.11	0.00	11.11	0.00	11.11	11.11	44.44	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	6.25	12.50	12.50	6.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.75	6.25
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	20.00	10.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	33.33	0.00	8.33	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	16.67
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	18.18	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	45.45	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 47  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign foreign currency ratings original-to-last transition matrix
(%)
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	D
AAA	20	50.00	20.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00
AA+	3	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	5	20.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00
A+	6	0.00	16.67	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11	22.22	11.11	22.22	22.22	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB+	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	8	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB-	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	27.27	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
BB+	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	33.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
BB	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00
BB-	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	10.53	5.26	0.00	15.79	5.26	0.00	5.26	5.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.32
B+	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	20.00	8.00	16.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.00
B	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	0.00	0.00	13.64	0.00	4.55	9.09	4.55	4.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.91
B-	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	0.00	4.17	0.00	4.17	0.00	4.17	0.00	25.00	4.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	54.17
CCC+	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	0.00	0.00	12.50	18.75	6.25	6.25	0.00	31.25
CCC	3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CCC-	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
Note: Original to last transition rates compare the issuer's rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 48  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign local currency ratings one-year most recent transition matrix (2023)
(%)	--Rating one year later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	25.00	62.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	75.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	83.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	75.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	54.55	18.18	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	84.62	7.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 49

Sovereign local currency ratings three-year most recent transition matrix (2021-2023)
(%)	--Rating three years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	8.33	25.00	41.67	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	40.00	60.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	60.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	80.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	30.00	40.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	72.73	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	80.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	20.00	40.00	20.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	8.33	58.33	16.67	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	8.33	8.33	16.67	25.00	16.67	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	50.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	66.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 50

Sovereign local currency ratings 10-year most recent transition matrix (2014-2023)
(%)	--Rating 10 years later--
From/to	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	SD	NR
AAA	76.92	15.38	7.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	28.57	28.57	0.00	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29
AA	0.00	0.00	83.33	0.00	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	11.11	22.22	22.22	33.33	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	28.57	14.29	14.29	0.00	14.29	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	12.50	37.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	6.25	12.50	12.50	6.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	18.75	6.25
B+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	0.00	20.00	10.00	30.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00
B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	33.33	0.00	8.33	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67
B-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	27.27	18.18	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	18.18
CCC+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00	0.00
CCC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CCC-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CC	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 51  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign local currency ratings original-to-last transition matrix
(%)
From/to	Total	AAA	AA+	AA	AA-	A+	A	A-	BBB+	BBB	BBB-	BB+	BB	BB-	B+	B	B-	CCC+	CCC	CCC-	CC	D
AAA	25	48.00	12.00	16.00	0.00	8.00	4.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	6	0.00	16.67	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
AA	7	0.00	0.00	42.86	14.29	28.57	0.00	14.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	6	0.00	0.00	16.67	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67
A+	9	0.00	11.11	0.00	0.00	33.33	11.11	0.00	11.11	22.22	11.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	9.09	9.09	0.00	9.09	9.09	18.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	0.00	9.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
BBB+	8	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	25.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BBB	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	50.00	0.00	12.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50
BB+	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	25.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	20.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00
BB-	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	37.50	0.00	12.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00
B+	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	9.09	9.09	18.18	9.09	18.18	4.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09
B	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	0.00	5.26	0.00	5.26	10.53	5.26	15.79	5.26	0.00	0.00	26.32
B-	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	41.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
CCC+	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	0.00	0.00	8.33	33.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	33.33
CCC	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00
CCC-	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	0.00	75.00
CC	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
Note: Original-to-last transition rates compare the issuer's rating from the time of first rating to the last rating, regardless of the time elapsed in the interim. Implied senior debt ratings through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Cumulative default rates

Table 52

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16
A	0.00	0.02	0.42	0.86	1.33	1.82	2.33	2.87	3.43	4.03	4.65	5.30	5.73	6.16	6.79
BBB	0.15	0.73	1.34	1.96	2.42	2.88	3.28	3.73	4.28	4.87	5.52	6.22	7.28	8.45	9.35
BB	0.42	1.32	2.02	2.60	3.95	5.44	7.02	8.50	9.78	10.63	11.41	12.23	12.87	13.38	13.76
B	2.97	6.84	10.95	15.04	18.42	21.62	24.76	27.70	30.43	33.01	35.14	37.23	39.49	41.91	44.51
CCC/CC	31.29	40.33	44.65	46.30	50.34	56.90	61.65	63.67	63.67	64.74	67.62	69.17	69.78	69.78	69.78
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 53

Sovereign local currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers (1993-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (years)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.47	0.91	1.39	1.90	2.45
A	0.00	0.02	0.39	0.82	1.26	1.73	2.22	2.74	3.29	4.06	4.67	5.32	6.01	6.75	7.52
BBB	0.00	0.36	0.62	0.86	1.11	1.38	1.94	2.29	2.62	2.68	2.68	2.68	2.68	2.68	2.68
BB	0.57	1.17	1.52	1.85	2.37	3.14	3.89	4.81	5.68	6.38	7.13	8.13	9.48	10.27	10.98
B	1.65	3.36	5.17	6.91	8.47	9.90	11.36	12.93	14.63	16.33	17.73	19.06	20.33	22.45	24.60
CCC/CC	12.30	17.43	20.91	23.12	29.06	36.01	38.65	40.50	40.50	41.62	44.51	44.51	44.51	44.51	44.51
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 54

Foreign currency 'A' static pools and default rates (1992-2023*) (%)
		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1994	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1995	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1996	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1998	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1999	9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.11
1/1/2000	11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9.09	18.18	18.18
1/1/2001	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.33	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/2002	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2003	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76
1/1/2004	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	15.00
1/1/2005	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2006	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09
1/1/2007	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2008	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2009	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52
1/1/2010	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2011	21	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76	4.76
1/1/2012	15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2013	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2014	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2015	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2016	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	15	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2022	17	0.00	0.00
1/1/2023	17	0.00
Cumulative default rate§		0.00	0.00	0.22	0.66	1.13	1.61	2.12	2.66	3.23	3.82	4.43	5.08	5.76	6.13	6.92
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. §From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 55

Foreign currency 'BBB' static pools and default rates (1992-2023*) (%)
		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/1993	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67
1/1/1994	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/1995	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/1996	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1997	9	0.00	0.00	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/1998	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50
1/1/1999	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	12.50	12.50
1/1/2000	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2001	16	0.00	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2002	16	0.00	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25
1/1/2003	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2004	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2005	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69
1/1/2006	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2007	13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	7.69	7.69
1/1/2008	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29
1/1/2009	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76	11.76
1/1/2010	19	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	15.79
1/1/2011	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	10.00	10.00
1/1/2012	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	12.00	12.00
1/1/2013	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	4.17
1/1/2014	27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.70	3.70
1/1/2015	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85	3.85
1/1/2016	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2018	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2019	25	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.00	4.00
1/1/2020	28	0.00	0.00	3.57	3.57
1/1/2021	28	0.00	3.57	3.57
1/1/2022	26	3.85	3.85
1/1/2023	25	0.00
Cumulative default rate§		0.18	0.73	1.51	2.13	2.57	3.03	3.52	4.04	4.59	5.20	5.85	6.57	7.34	8.61	9.52
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. §From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 56

Foreign currency 'BB' static pools and default rates (1992-2023*) (%)
		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1992	2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1993	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1994	6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	16.67	16.67	16.67	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33
1/1/1995	8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.50	12.50	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00
1/1/1996	10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.00	10.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	30.00
1/1/1997	13	0.00	0.00	7.69	7.69	15.38	15.38	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77	30.77
1/1/1998	18	0.00	11.11	11.11	16.67	16.67	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22	22.22
1/1/1999	18	0.00	0.00	5.56	5.56	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11	11.11
1/1/2000	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67	6.67
1/1/2001	14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	7.14	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29
1/1/2002	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.25	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2003	17	0.00	5.88	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	11.76	17.65
1/1/2004	17	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	5.88	11.76	11.76
1/1/2005	19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.26	5.26
1/1/2006	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00
1/1/2007	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64	13.64
1/1/2008	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2009	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2010	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70	8.70
1/1/2011	23	0.00	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04	13.04
1/1/2012	22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.55	4.55	4.55	9.09	9.09	9.09	9.09
1/1/2013	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.85	7.69	7.69	11.54	11.54	11.54	11.54
1/1/2014	24	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.17	8.33	8.33	12.50	12.50	12.50	12.50
1/1/2015	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
1/1/2016	21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.76	4.76	9.52	9.52
1/1/2017	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35
1/1/2018	20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00
1/1/2019	17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	18	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2021	17	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2022	18	0.00	0.00
1/1/2023	19	0.00
Cumulative default rate§		0.36	1.28	1.85	2.44	3.87	5.36	6.91	8.55	9.77	10.55	11.10	11.70	12.34	13.02	13.40
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. §From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 57

Foreign currency 'B' static pools and default rates (1995-2023*) (%)
		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1995	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1996	5	0.00	0.00	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00
1/1/1997	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/1998	5	0.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/1999	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2000	14	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	21.43	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2001	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	21.05	21.05	21.05	26.32	26.32	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58	31.58
1/1/2002	15	0.00	6.67	6.67	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	13.33	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	26.67	26.67
1/1/2003	16	12.50	12.50	12.50	18.75	18.75	18.75	18.75	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	31.25	31.25	31.25
1/1/2004	19	0.00	5.26	10.53	10.53	10.53	10.53	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	15.79	21.05	21.05	21.05	21.05
1/1/2005	21	4.76	9.52	9.52	9.52	9.52	14.29	14.29	19.05	19.05	19.05	23.81	28.57	28.57	28.57	28.57
1/1/2006	23	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.35	4.35	13.04	13.04	17.39	17.39	21.74	26.09	26.09	26.09	34.78
1/1/2007	25	0.00	4.00	4.00	8.00	8.00	16.00	16.00	20.00	20.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	32.00	32.00
1/1/2008	29	6.90	6.90	10.34	10.34	20.69	20.69	24.14	24.14	27.59	27.59	27.59	27.59	34.48	34.48	44.83
1/1/2009	29	0.00	3.45	3.45	10.34	10.34	13.79	17.24	20.69	20.69	20.69	20.69	27.59	27.59	37.93	41.38
1/1/2010	28	0.00	0.00	7.14	7.14	10.71	10.71	14.29	14.29	14.29	14.29	21.43	21.43	32.14	35.71
1/1/2011	33	0.00	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	18.18	18.18	18.18	27.27	27.27	36.36	39.39
1/1/2012	33	6.06	9.09	12.12	15.15	18.18	21.21	21.21	21.21	30.30	30.30	39.39	42.42
1/1/2013	31	3.23	6.45	9.68	12.90	16.13	16.13	16.13	25.81	25.81	35.48	38.71
1/1/2014	33	0.00	3.03	9.09	15.15	15.15	15.15	24.24	24.24	33.33	36.36
1/1/2015	35	0.00	5.71	11.43	14.29	14.29	22.86	22.86	31.43	37.14
1/1/2016	39	5.13	10.26	12.82	12.82	20.51	20.51	30.77	35.90
1/1/2017	39	5.13	7.69	10.26	20.51	20.51	30.77	35.90
1/1/2018	36	0.00	2.78	16.67	16.67	27.78	33.33
1/1/2019	41	2.44	14.63	14.63	24.39	31.71
1/1/2020	39	7.69	7.69	17.95	25.64
1/1/2021	36	0.00	8.33	16.67
1/1/2022	39	7.69	12.82
1/1/2023	35	2.86
Cumulative default rate§		2.72	6.73	10.81	14.62	18.15	21.18	24.39	27.40	30.00	32.31	34.81	37.24	39.29	41.56	44.09
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. §From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 58

Foreign currency 'CCC'/'CC' static pools and default rates (1999-2023*) (%)
		--Time horizon (years)--
Dates	# of issuers	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1/1/1999	4	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
1/1/2000	2	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2001	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2002	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2003	4	0.00	0.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2004	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2005	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2006	3	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67
1/1/2007	1	0.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2008	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2009	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2010	3	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	33.33	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	66.67	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2011	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2012	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2013	2	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2014	1	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2015	2	50.00	50.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2016	2	0.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
1/1/2017	3	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
1/1/2018	4	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	25.00	50.00
1/1/2019	1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1/1/2020	5	60.00	60.00	60.00	60.00
1/1/2021	8	12.50	25.00	25.00
1/1/2022	8	12.50	25.00
1/1/2023	8	25.00
Cumulative default rate§		33.33	41.27	46.95	49.36	52.03	60.49	63.79	63.79	63.79	63.79	67.41	67.41	67.41	67.41	67.41
*Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. §From the rating category row in table 17. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 59

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rate* with rating modifiers (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (annualized months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.72
A+	0.00	0.00	0.34	1.21	2.13	2.29	2.29	3.17	4.01	4.01	4.01	4.01	4.01	4.82	5.83
A	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.72	1.32	2.46	3.72	4.53	5.41	6.78	8.14	8.88	9.67	10.09	10.09
A-	0.00	0.05	0.71	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.77	0.84	1.81	2.06	2.25	3.41
BBB+	0.00	0.29	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.41	1.63	2.98	4.47	6.10	8.74	10.63
BBB	0.00	0.51	1.15	1.77	1.77	1.77	1.77	2.05	3.77	4.68	5.68	6.79	8.91	9.64	9.64
BBB-	0.35	1.18	2.08	3.08	4.16	5.22	6.15	6.99	6.99	6.99	6.99	6.99	6.99	7.70	8.72
BB+	0.22	1.29	1.29	1.29	2.22	3.73	5.30	6.40	8.12	9.23	10.15	11.11	12.12	13.18	14.33
BB	0.09	0.66	1.24	1.83	2.18	2.70	3.40	4.03	4.03	4.03	4.16	4.98	5.87	6.35	6.35
BB-	0.81	1.87	3.14	4.11	6.63	8.98	11.38	13.99	16.15	17.62	18.99	19.68	19.68	19.68	19.68
B+	0.58	1.97	3.54	6.23	8.62	11.74	15.14	18.62	20.43	22.63	24.70	26.53	28.58	31.52	35.67
B	2.51	6.22	11.39	16.31	20.35	22.93	25.67	28.48	31.87	35.23	37.53	40.70	43.87	46.08	47.02
B-	7.30	15.28	21.81	26.87	30.82	35.19	38.59	40.90	44.05	45.95	47.95	48.68	49.76	51.70	54.65
CCC+	17.00	20.49	24.61	27.01	32.95	42.65	49.75	52.78	52.78	54.39	58.76	61.13	62.08	62.08	62.08
CCC	44.53	72.12	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94	79.94
CCC-	80.21	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17	97.17
CC	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.04	0.19	0.44	0.69	0.91	1.13	1.34	1.56	1.81	2.07	2.35	2.64	2.94	3.26	3.61
Speculative grade	3.42	6.29	8.95	11.41	13.91	16.44	18.91	21.14	23.09	24.80	26.32	27.78	29.20	30.60	32.01
All rated	1.33	2.51	3.66	4.74	5.80	6.88	7.91	8.87	9.73	10.50	11.21	11.90	12.58	13.26	13.94
*Default rates conditional on survival. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 60  |  View Expanded Table

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rate* with rating modifiers (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon (months)--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.20	0.30
BBB-	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.14	0.17	0.21	0.24	0.28	0.31	0.35	0.38	0.42	0.45	0.56	0.67	0.74	0.81	0.89
BB+	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.11	0.22	0.39	0.55	0.78	0.89	1.00	1.06	1.12	1.18
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.14	0.19	0.23	0.28	0.33	0.38	0.42	0.47
BB-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.15	0.22	0.33	0.48	0.66	0.81	0.88	0.96	1.03	1.11	1.18	1.26	1.33	1.41
B+	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.15	0.24	0.30	0.39	0.49	0.58	0.67	0.76	0.86	0.95	1.08	1.20	1.36	1.52
B	0.09	0.19	0.28	0.43	0.65	0.90	1.19	1.47	1.75	2.01	2.26	2.51	2.83	3.16	3.45	3.74	4.03	4.32	4.58	4.84
B-	0.31	0.85	1.35	1.89	2.53	3.22	3.91	4.56	5.26	5.87	6.54	7.30	7.92	8.49	9.17	9.90	10.64	11.38	12.03	12.68
CCC+	1.15	2.64	4.31	6.16	7.86	9.40	10.79	12.18	13.77	15.19	16.27	17.00	17.74	18.30	18.68	18.87	18.87	18.87	19.07	19.47
CCC	4.95	11.02	17.70	23.86	28.93	32.34	35.21	38.10	39.27	41.02	42.77	44.53	46.86	49.78	52.12	54.48	56.88	59.31	62.39	64.90
CCC-	16.36	27.52	38.96	46.84	50.93	57.33	61.82	66.59	71.73	74.56	77.38	80.21	83.04	85.87	88.69	91.52	94.35	97.17	97.17	97.17
CC	30.91	49.09	63.64	76.36	83.64	87.27	90.91	92.73	94.55	96.36	98.18	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.09	0.10	0.12
Speculative grade	0.31	0.63	0.94	1.25	1.53	1.81	2.09	2.36	2.63	2.89	3.15	3.42	3.68	3.93	4.18	4.42	4.67	4.90	5.14	5.37
All rated	0.12	0.24	0.36	0.48	0.59	0.70	0.81	0.91	1.02	1.12	1.23	1.33	1.43	1.53	1.63	1.72	1.82	1.92	2.02	2.12
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 61

Sovereign local currency cumulative average default rate* with rating modifiers (1993-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA+	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.88
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.66	1.46
AA-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	1.32	2.58	3.97	4.71	4.71
A+	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.94	1.65	1.77	1.77	2.39	3.40	4.14	4.14	4.14	4.14	4.14	5.27
A	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.78	1.43	2.69	4.11	5.03	5.68	6.51	7.32	7.32	7.32	7.32	7.32
A-	0.00	0.05	0.70	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	1.50	2.55	4.65	6.87	9.22	10.37
BBB+	0.00	0.25	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.48	1.26	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40
BBB	0.00	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19
BBB-	0.00	0.60	1.25	1.94	2.69	3.48	5.15	6.10	6.10	6.10	6.10	6.10	6.10	6.10	6.10
BB+	0.17	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.23	2.01	2.07	2.15	3.06	4.00	4.97	5.99	7.11	8.36	9.78
BB	1.19	1.53	1.53	1.53	1.53	1.53	2.32	3.34	3.34	3.34	3.34	3.34	3.34	3.34	3.34
BB-	0.45	1.02	1.91	2.75	3.92	5.25	6.60	8.28	9.79	10.78	11.94	13.87	16.94	17.95	18.49
B+	0.44	1.29	1.45	1.45	2.25	3.38	4.31	4.99	5.98	8.12	10.00	12.51	15.41	20.15	25.26
B	1.00	1.88	3.74	6.20	7.88	9.07	10.32	12.12	14.36	15.33	16.30	17.21	17.71	18.17	18.87
B-	4.09	8.11	12.04	15.04	17.46	19.69	22.34	24.98	26.93	29.33	30.78	30.78	30.78	32.01	32.38
CCC+	6.86	11.81	17.44	20.81	29.60	39.72	43.48	45.99	45.99	47.44	51.29	51.29	51.29	51.29	51.29
CCC	16.29	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71	24.71
CCC-	23.29	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54	28.54
CC	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40	24.40
Investment grade	0.00	0.09	0.26	0.43	0.61	0.79	1.05	1.27	1.49	1.72	1.97	2.23	2.51	2.81	3.12
Speculative grade	1.94	3.41	4.74	5.93	7.26	8.67	9.88	11.18	12.43	13.66	14.83	15.94	17.17	18.55	19.89
All rated	0.73	1.34	1.93	2.47	3.07	3.69	4.28	4.88	5.45	6.01	6.56	7.09	7.66	8.28	8.89
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 62

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: Middle East and Africa (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BB	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
B	2.00	4.36	7.18	9.92	12.89	16.11	19.58	23.35	27.49	31.36	34.64	37.67	40.63	44.25	48.52
CCC/CC	15.34	21.44	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	22.97	39.02	45.43	45.43	45.43
Investment grade	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Speculative grade	2.41	4.46	6.60	8.60	10.76	13.07	15.55	18.21	21.06	23.68	25.87	28.11	30.07	32.24	34.66
All rated	1.44	2.66	3.91	5.08	6.32	7.63	9.03	10.51	12.11	13.57	14.80	16.06	17.15	18.36	19.71
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 63

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: Latin America (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53	3.95
BBB	0.00	0.50	1.20	1.95	2.76	3.65	4.61	5.66	6.84	8.19	9.74	11.54	13.64	15.69	15.69
BB	0.24	1.01	2.35	3.86	6.96	10.33	13.93	17.23	19.93	21.43	23.17	25.15	26.64	27.80	28.62
B	6.23	14.30	22.84	30.99	35.96	40.29	43.87	47.64	50.87	53.73	55.06	56.10	57.56	59.01	61.13
CCC/CC	39.18	53.76	63.30	67.05	75.07	83.10	88.17	91.55	91.55	93.24	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.00	0.31	0.73	1.18	1.65	2.16	2.69	3.27	3.89	4.58	5.34	6.18	7.13	8.19	9.37
Speculative grade	5.25	10.00	14.88	19.33	23.48	27.52	31.21	34.74	37.53	39.66	41.41	42.87	44.26	45.47	46.76
All rated	3.26	6.33	9.53	12.49	15.29	18.05	20.62	23.14	25.20	26.89	28.36	29.67	30.98	32.20	33.53
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 64

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: Asia-Pacific (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.00	0.91	2.19	3.53	4.95	6.46	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52	7.52
BB	0.00	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09
B	0.60	2.50	4.20	5.96	7.03	8.00	9.01	10.09	11.24	12.47	13.80	15.24	16.80	18.48	20.31
CCC/CC	64.55	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25	72.25
Investment grade	0.00	0.19	0.44	0.70	0.98	1.26	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.46
Speculative grade	2.16	3.42	4.35	5.30	5.88	6.39	6.92	7.48	8.07	8.69	9.35	10.07	10.84	11.69	12.61
All rated	0.77	1.34	1.83	2.34	2.72	3.09	3.40	3.60	3.81	4.02	4.25	4.48	4.74	5.00	5.28
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 65

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: Central and Eastern Europe and CIS (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BBB	0.55	1.22	1.92	2.65	2.77	2.77	2.77	3.40	4.27	5.15	6.09	7.07	8.11	9.21	10.38
BB	0.35	1.07	1.25	1.25	1.92	2.77	3.66	4.62	5.65	6.77	7.17	7.17	7.17	7.17	7.17
B	1.42	3.76	6.95	10.33	13.94	17.15	20.24	22.04	23.58	25.19	28.02	31.57	35.36	38.96	41.21
CCC/CC	44.71	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	81.14	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Investment grade	0.29	0.64	1.01	1.40	1.47	1.47	1.47	1.83	2.32	2.84	3.39	3.98	4.61	5.28	6.00
Speculative grade	1.63	3.28	4.67	6.03	7.85	9.85	11.88	13.15	14.36	15.67	17.08	18.61	20.30	21.95	23.01
All rated	0.91	1.87	2.72	3.55	4.43	5.36	6.29	7.06	7.87	8.74	9.67	10.66	11.73	12.80	13.65
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. CIS--Commonwealth of Independent States. N.A.--Not available, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 66

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: eurozone (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.41
A	0.00	0.06	1.45	3.02	4.67	6.42	8.28	10.26	12.34	14.56	16.85	19.23	20.79	22.15	23.00
BBB	0.00	0.87	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	1.09	2.96	5.55	8.21
BB	2.61	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33	8.33
B	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	3.06	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
CCC/CC	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	61.76	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.
Investment grade	0.00	0.13	0.47	0.83	1.20	1.58	1.97	2.38	2.80	3.23	3.68	4.15	4.64	5.15	5.68
Speculative grade	7.66	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47	11.47
All rated	0.40	0.71	1.04	1.38	1.73	2.09	2.46	2.85	3.26	3.68	4.12	4.57	5.05	5.55	6.07
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. N.A.--Not available, there are no observations for this horizon. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

Table 67

Sovereign foreign currency cumulative average default rates* without rating modifiers: emerging and frontier markets (1975-2023)
(%)	--Time horizon, annualized months--
Rating	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
AAA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
A	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.79
BBB	0.18	0.76	1.49	2.25	2.84	3.41	3.91	4.48	5.17	5.91	6.70	7.56	8.49	9.42	9.96
BB	0.33	1.05	1.80	2.41	3.84	5.43	7.10	8.68	10.03	10.92	11.76	12.62	13.30	13.84	14.23
B	3.09	7.21	11.75	16.20	19.75	23.08	26.34	29.40	32.40	35.22	37.52	39.77	42.20	44.81	47.62
CCC/CC	33.62	44.53	49.82	51.88	57.07	65.77	72.52	75.41	75.41	76.86	80.87	83.15	84.06	84.06	84.06
Investment grade	0.09	0.37	0.72	1.09	1.37	1.64	1.87	2.14	2.45	2.79	3.16	3.54	3.96	4.42	4.91
Speculative grade	3.42	6.37	9.27	11.92	14.54	17.20	19.78	22.12	24.24	26.08	27.72	29.29	30.82	32.32	33.83
All rated	2.00	3.81	5.61	7.28	8.89	10.52	12.09	13.53	14.87	16.07	17.16	18.22	19.28	20.33	21.40
*Default rates conditional on survival. Implied senior debt rating through 1995; sovereign credit ratings thereafter. Horizons consist of monthly cohorts for specified periods annualized. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro®.

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Credit Markets Research:	Luca Rossi, Paris +33 6 2518 9258; luca.rossi@spglobal.com
	Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698; nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:	Vaishali Singh, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai