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From Tariffs To Traffic Volumes: Potential Economic Effects On Mexican Toll Roads

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From Tariffs To Traffic Volumes: Potential Economic Effects On Mexican Toll Roads

High industrial and commercial activity has boosted the already-strong traffic performance of S&P Global Ratings' Mexican toll road portfolio, and we expect this to continue in the next 12-24 months.   In our view, the favorable geographical locations of the toll roads have supported traffic volumes in the past two-to-five years. This is because most serve densely populated areas with key commercial and industrial centers, which we project will continue lifting traffic volumes.

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Most of our rated portfolio serves commercial hubs, where we believe nearshoring has been gradually consolidating in Mexico; focused on the auto, manufacturing, and technological services sectors. In this context, traffic volumes have remained strong with average growth of 7.5% in the past three years, and notably heavy traffic exceeding light with average growth of 9% versus about 8%. As a result, our issue ratings on projects' senior debt have remained the same, constrained by our sovereign ratings on Mexico (foreign currency: BBB/Stable/A-2; local currency: BBB+/Stable/A-2), or at the highest possible level under our Mexican national scale. Meanwhile, we have upgraded most subordinated series debt due to robust traffic performance. In our base case, we continue to assume overall traffic growth will outpace GDP by about 2x on average in the next 12-24 months and converge with our GDP projections thereafter.

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The increased share of heavy vehicles in Mexican toll road traffic means volumes could be rapidly hampered by various policy measures referenced by U.S. President Trump.  In recent years, most of the projects in our portfolio benefited from high industrial activity, mainly supported by the free trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada. Therefore, if the U.S. enacts tariffs on imports from Mexico, this could weaken projects' performance--particularly for heavy vehicles--and consequently DSCRs.

The credit effects of any potential traffic decline from these policies would not be uniform across the road projects we rate, since this depends on asset-specific features, and each project's financials, structure, and liquidity cushion. However, we believe subordinated series debt will be most affected because lock-up tests may be triggered--meaning those series receive lower or no distributions from senior debt. In our view, projects' senior series debt would be more resilient because of higher coverage cushions to start, with average DSCRs above 1.5x for the next 12-24 months.

The following table illustrates the credit headroom of our portfolio if heavy vehicle traffic decreases 10% from our current base-case assumptions:

Credit headroom of Mexican toll roads
Entity Ratings Current base-case min. DSCR / Median Credit headroom*

Concesionaria Mexiquense S.A. de C.V.

BBB/Stable; mxAAA/Stable 2.4x (2025) / 3.0x High

Organización de Proyectos de Infraestructura

mxAA/Stable 1.3x (2025) / 1.5x Low

Fideicomiso No. 80698 (Periférico del Área Metropolitana de Monterrey)- Senior Series

mxAAA/Stable 5.4x (2025) / 8.5x High

Fideicomiso No. 2227 (Periférico del Área Metropolitana de Monterrey)- Subordinated Series

mxAA+/Stable 2.2x (2025) / 25.1x High

Fideicomiso Autopista Monterrey-Cadereyta No. 3378

mxAAA/Stable 1.6x (2029) / 3.0x High

Libramiento Plan del Río- Subordinated Series

mxA/Stable 1.5x (2026) / 1.6x Medium

Fideicomiso 1784 (Autopista Rio Verde y Libramiento La Piedad) A2– Senior Series

mxAAA/Stable 2.2x (2026) / 3.7x Medium

Fideicomiso CIB/2076 (Autopista Rio Verde y Libramiento La Piedad) – Subordinated Series

mxAA-/Stable 1.3x (2025) / 2.2x Low

Red de Carreteras de Occidente S.A.P.I. de C.V.

BBB/Stable; mxAAA/Stable 1.3x (2026) / 2.4x Low
*Credit headroom: High means potentially no rating impact; medium means potentially a negative impact of below one rating category; low means potentially a negative impact of one or more rating category. DSCR--Debt service coverage ratio.

It is still unclear how, when, and to what magnitude tariffs could affect other relevant variables for Mexican toll roads, such as overall GDP, inflation, or light vehicle traffic. Furthermore, the appetite for private investment could be harmed, hitting expected industrial growth due to greater uncertainty over bilateral relations. Nonetheless, our base case remains that potential disputes between Mexico and the U.S. on trade, and other matters, will likely be managed in a pragmatic manner that sustains overall economic stability.

S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S. administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and credit conditions around the world. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly (see our research here: spglobal.com/ratings).

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Daniel Castineyra, Mexico City + 52(55)5081-4497;
daniel.castineyra@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Julyana Yokota, Sao Paulo + 55 11 3039 9731;
julyana.yokota@spglobal.com
Diana laura Flores, Mexico City +52 5550814489;
diana.laura.flores@spglobal.com

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