U.S. auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) volume grew roughly 6% to $126.0 billion in 2024 and surpassed 2023's record $118.5 billion volume due to increased issuance in the below prime (nonprime and subprime) and bank segments. Below prime issuance increased by 12% as subprime originations rose approximately 8%, according to the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel. This increase reflects the subprime lenders' renewed focus on growth in 2024 after curtailing origination volumes in 2023 to focus on credit quality. Bank segment (including credit unions) issuance increased approximately 16% due to the growing popularity of synthetic risk transfer (SRT) transactions and higher issuance by certain banks.

The $126.0 billion securitized amount represented about 18% of the $704.0 billion in U.S. auto loans that were originated last year.

S&P Global Ratings expects generally stable ratings performance on prime auto loan ABS this year. Over the past 18 months, we revised and raised our expected cumulative net losses (ECNLs) on most of the 2023 and early 2024 transactions that are performing above our initial rating expectations (with no downgrades due to deleveraging). We also expect upgrades to continue surpassing downgrades in the below prime segment due to the strength of the deleveraging and the high percentage of classes rated below 'AAA' (approximately 58% by dollar amount). Nonetheless, below prime speculative-grade (rated 'BB+ and lower) classes will remain vulnerable to downgrades if performance falls below our expectations and the sponsors do not exercise their optional clean-up calls.

For a dynamic, visual, and comparative view of the data presented in this report, access our new interactive U.S. ABS Auto Loan Tracker dashboard, by clicking here: link. The dashboard tracks the collateral performance of prime and subprime auto ABS transactions and enables the filtering of data to identify key metrics and trends. The below image is a preview.

2024: Prime Performance Weakened

Auto loan ABS collateral performance weakened in 2024 as some prime borrowers faced the same challenges that have been affecting subprime consumers since 2022, including rising living costs and vehicle affordability, such as higher insurance, maintenance, and repair expenses. Although lenders tried to address these issues with longer loan terms, with 73-84 month loans increasing to nearly 20% of both prime and subprime pools, the transactions' recent credit performance remain relatively weak.

Prime 60-plus-day delinquencies and losses reached their highest monthly averages since 2010, and the prime 2023 and quarterly 2024 vintages are reporting higher losses than 2022 and 2016 (the last vintages unaffected by COVID-19 stimulus). Meanwhile, subprime 60-plus-day delinquencies reached an all-time high and average monthly losses rose to their highest level since 2009. However, we are starting to see improved performance in the 2023 and 2024 vintage static pool data for some of the issuers who effectively tightened their credit standards.

The prime and subprime segments are both also reporting higher-than-pre-pandemic extension levels as of year-end 2024, indicating that lenders are being more flexible with consumers who are struggling to make their payments.

2025: Challenges Ahead

This year's issuance volume is hard to predict, as it hinges on the impact of the proposed import tariffs on vehicles sales and the broader U.S. economy. Persistently high interest rates and elevated new vehicle prices could also limit auto sales. Nonetheless, we forecast stable auto sales of approximately 16 million units and auto loan ABS issuance increasing 3% to approximately $130 billion this year.

We expect this growth to come from captives because they will likely increase their penetration rates with more incentive-based financing. Lower used vehicle prices (which were down 16% from their June 2022 peak as of year-end 2024) could also increase financing activity. Further, the large subprime securitizers are expected to increase their issuance this year due to recent origination growth, but they will likely do so at the expense of the smaller players. Some small auto loan companies are finding it difficult to remain profitable due to competitive pricing, higher funding costs (including more stringent bank lending terms), and weaker collateral performance.

Inflation and affordability issues will remain a challenge.  Although many issuers tightened their credit standards between the second half of 2022 and year-end 2024 following the underperformance of select 2022 and 2023 vintages, those actions could be undone by higher inflation rates and the ongoing affordability issues. For example, the average payment for a new and used financed vehicle was approximately $740 (30% increase) and $520 (32% increase), respectively, as of the third-quarter 2024, compared with $570 and $394 in 2020, according to Experian data. Consumers' higher monthly auto loan payments are also exacerbated by their higher auto insurance premiums. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, auto insurance costs rose 18%, on average, in 2024 following a 17% increase in 2023.

Higher debt levels, including buy-now, pay-later obligations, will weight on certain consumers.  Credit card balances increased 8.1% ($24.00 billion) year over year to $1.17 trillion as of third-quarter 2024. Meanwhile, accounts with 60% or higher utilization rates are transitioning to delinquency status at rates that surpass pre-pandemic levels, according to Liberty Street Analytics' May 14, 2024, edition. In addition to higher unsecured debt levels, we are also seeing greater use of buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) arrangements, especially among younger consumers with low credit scores. A recent report published by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau indicates that 61% of these originations are to borrowers with FICO scores below 620, and these individuals carry substantially higher auto loan balances ($5,734) than consumers of the same age and FICO score who do not use BNPL arrangements. The risk is that, unlike credit cards, BNPL obligations are generally not reported on credit bureau reports, thus giving lenders an unclear picture of these consumers' overall debt levels.

The resumption of government student loan payments poses another obstacle for consumers.  In October 2023, after four years of forbearance, an estimated 24 million borrowers whose federal student loan payments were suspended at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic were require to resume payments, which average approximately $300 per month. However, since the failure to make those payments weren't required to be reported to the credit bureaus until the fall of 2024, many delayed starting their repayments until late last year. Approximately one-third of these student loan borrowers also took on new auto loan debt while their student loans were in forbearance during the pandemic, according to TransUnion, which further complicates their ability to make these payments. Many of these consumers may not have budgeted for the resumption of their student loan payments, hoping the loans would eventually be forgiven, given the various proposals under the prior administration. Nonetheless, we believe consumers will continue to place a high priority on making their auto payments, especially to the extent that the underlying vehicle is a necessity.

Below Prime And Banks Fueled 2024 Issuance Volume

Below prime

In 2024, below prime issuance rose 12% ($4.1 billion) to $43.0 billion, representing 34.1% of total U.S. auto loan ABS issuance (up from 32.7% in 2023). The increase was largely attributable to three issuers: Santander (which issued $8.36 billion in 2024 versus $6.6 billion in 2023), Exeter ($4.1 billion versus $3.3 billion), and Global Lending Services (GLS; $3.5 billion versus $2.3 billion). Four issuers that were absent in 2023 also came to market: Arivo Acceptance (first issuance since 2022), Carmax Select Receivables (created a new subprime shelf), Drive Auto Receivables (first issuance since 2021), and SAFCO (first issuance since 2022).

Banks and credit unions

In 2024, bank and credit union issuance rose 16.0% ($2.9 billion) to $21.1 billion and represented 17.5% of total U.S. auto ABS volume. The growth was mainly due to credit-linked notes, which grew $1.8 billion to $2.4 billion (seven transactions) in 2024 from $612.0 million (three) in 2023. Those issuing credit-linked note deals in 2024 included Huntington National Bank ($1.3 billion), Ally Bank ($617.0 million), and Santander Bank ($500.0 million). These synthetic risk transfer transactions became increasingly popular as the implementation date of "Basel III Endgame," which would have increased banks' capital charges on collateral and securitization exposures, drew closer. While those regulatory changes are now on hold, we believe banks will continue to use these structures as a risk management tool.

The higher bank issuance was also due to an increase in term ABS from Chase Bank (which issued $5.4 billion in 2024 versus $472.0 million in 2023) and Ally Bank ($2.2 billion versus $1.2 billion). These offset the lower issuance amounts from U.S. Bank, whose volume decreased by $4.3 billion in 2024, and Fifth Third Bank, which did not return to market after completing a transaction totaling $1.6 billion in 2023.

Credit union securitization volume increased to $2.06 billion (five transactions) in 2024 from $1.73 billion (six) in 2023. Three new credit union issuers came to market: First Community Credit Union (FCCU; whose footprint is concentrated in Texas), American Heritage Credit Union (whose customers are located primarily in Pennsylvania and New Jersey), and Greenstate Credit Union (whose member base is concentrated in Iowa; we did not rate this transaction). Two issuers returned with their second transactions: Pentagon Federal Credit Union and Space Coast Credit Union. For more information on the credit unions, see "Credit Union Auto Loan ABS Issuance Growth Continued in 2024, Buoyed By New and Repeat Issuers," published Feb. 11, 2025).

Domestic and foreign captives

The combined issuance from domestic and foreign captives increased 1.0% to $49.1 billion in 2024 and represented 39.0% of total U.S. auto ABS volume. Stellantis Financial Services (SFS) became more active in 2024, issuing approximately $1.9 billion. This helped to offset Tesla's absence in the public ABS market (after issuing a $1 billion transaction in 2023), and Mercedes-Benz, Porsche Financial, and Volkswagen reduced number of transactions.

Other prime

Other prime issuance increased slightly to $11.9 billion in 2024, which represented 9.4% of total U.S. auto ABS volume. The slight increase from $11.8 billion in 2023 was due to Carvana (which also has a subprime shelf) increasing its prime issuance by $667.0 million. Overall, prime issuance (including captives, banks, credit unions, and other prime) represented 65.9% of total auto loan issuance in 2024.

Auto Tracker Performance Methodology

Our year-end U.S. auto loan tracker examines performance in two ways: on a portfolio-basis, where we aggregate the statistics across all the deals outstanding every month regardless of when the deals closed (referred to as our composites), and on a static pool vintage basis, where losses (or other metrics) are assigned to the vintage year or quarter in which the pool was securitized (referred to as our indexes).

Annual Portfolio-Based Performance

Prime auto loan ABS: annualized losses and delinquencies continued to rise while recoveries weakened.  Annualized losses continued to increase in 2024 from the record-low levels reached in 2021, though they remained below the 2009 peak. Meanwhile, recovery rates fell and delinquencies continued to increase, creeping closer to 2009 levels. Key year-over-year changes in the prime segment include:

• Average annualized losses increased to 0.70% in 2024 (the highest level since 0.93% in 2010) from 0.51% in 2023.
• The average recovery rate decreased to 56.03% (the lowest level since 57.12% in 2017) from 58.60%.
• Sixty-plus-day delinquencies rose to an average of 0.58% (the highest level since 0.57% in 2010) from 0.52%.

Subprime auto loan ABS: performance weakened with losses climbing to recessionary levels and delinquencies reaching an all-time high.  Subprime annualized losses rose to the highest level since 2009 and delinquencies reached a record high, though the rate of increase for both metrics slowed from 2022 and 2023. Key year-over-year changes in the subprime segment include:

• Average annualized losses increased to 8.56% in 2024 (the highest level since 2009) from 7.86% in 2023.
• Recoveries decreased to an average of 37.92% (which is lower than the 40.02% average in 2017) from 43.72%.
• Sixty-plus-day delinquencies rose to a record high of 5.82% from 5.63%.

Monthly Portfolio-Based Performance: December 2024

Losses: highest December prime and subprime losses since 2010 and 2018, respectively.  Prime annualized net losses increased to 0.80% in December 2024 (the highest December level since 0.91% in 2010) from 0.74% the previous month and 0.72% a year earlier. Of the 27 issuers that had outstanding transactions with at least four months of performance in both December 2023 and December 2024, 20 reported higher weighted average losses and seven reported lower weighted average losses.

Subprime annualized net losses increased to 9.54% in December 2024 (the highest level since 10.15% in December 2018) from 9.14% the previous month and 8.98% a year earlier. Of the 16 issuers that had outstanding transactions with at least four months of performance in both December 2023 and December 2024, eight reported higher weighted average losses and eight reported lower weighted average losses.

Table 1

Net loss rate composite(i)
	Dec-10	Dec-15	Dec-16	Dec-17	Dec-18	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Nov-24	Dec-24
Prime (%)	0.91	0.58	0.69	0.78	0.62	0.65	0.38	0.31	0.52	0.72	0.74	0.80
Subprime (%)	6.67	8.59	9.62	9.58	10.15	9.33	5.51	5.24	8.54	8.98	9.14	9.54
(i)Represents monthly annualized losses. N/A--Not applicable.

Recoveries: declined month over month in-line with seasonal trends.  Prime and subprime recoveries declined month over month. Prime recoveries fell to 49.85% in December 2024 from 52.40% the previous month and rose from 46.28% a year earlier. Meanwhile, subprime recoveries decreased to 31.27% (the lowest December level since 31.84% in 2008) from 35.08% the previous month and 35.32% a year earlier.

Table 2

Recovery rate composite(i)
	Dec-10	Dec-15	Dec-16	Dec-17	Dec-18	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Nov-24	Dec-24
Prime (%)	58.67	53.74	53.85	45.70	51.94	55.19	68.87	75.37	52.15	46.28	52.40	49.85
Subprime (%)	41.90	40.74	40.10	36.28	36.25	37.78	44.76	50.29	39.58	35.32	35.08	31.27
(i)Represents monthly annualized losses.

Prime and subprime 60-plus-day delinquency rates remained high in December 2024. Prime 60-plus-day delinquencies rose to 0.62% in December from 0.58% the previous month, but declined from 0.64% a year earlier. At the same time, subprime 60-plus-day delinquencies rose to 6.56% (the highest-ever level in our composite's history) from 6.01% a month earlier and 6.27% a year earlier.

Table 3

60-plus-day delinquency rate composite(i)
	Dec-10	Dec-15	Dec-16	Dec-17	Dec-18	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Nov-24	Dec-24
Prime (%)	0.59	0.49	0.49	0.48	0.47	0.47	0.38	0.42	0.51	0.64	0.58	0.62
Subprime (%)	3.45	5.22	5.56	5.53	5.91	5.81	4.20	4.71	6.08	6.27	6.01	6.56
(i)Represents 60-plus-day delinquencies.

Delinquencies: 30-plus-day rose for both prime and subprime.  Prime and subprime 30-plus-day delinquency rates increased in December 2024, both month over month and year over year. Prime 30-plus-day delinquencies reached 2.04% in December 2024 from 1.89% the previous month and 1.96% a year earlier. Subprime delinquencies increased to 17.30% in December 2024 from 15.91% the previous month and 16.88% a year earlier.

Table 4

30-plus-day delinquency rate composite(i)
	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Nov-24	Dec-24
Prime (%)	1.58	1.35	1.43	1.68	1.96	1.89	2.04
Subprime (%)	15.67	11.81	13.06	16.07	16.88	15.91	17.30
(i)Represents 30-plus-day delinquencies.

Extensions: reached the highest levels since December 2020.  Prime extensions remained elevated at 0.77% in December 2024, a 19 basis points (bps) increase year over year and the highest level since December 2020 (except the 0.89% Hurricane-induced rate in October 2024). Extensions for subprime public and 144a transactions combined were 3.81%, a 10 bps increase year over year.

Extension rates dipped as expected during the first half of 2024 due to consumers receiving tax refunds and using those to bring their past due accounts current. As the year progressed and consumers started falling behind on their financial obligations, extensions gradually rose before spiking briefly in October due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. They then declined in November but exhibited their normal season rise in December.

Of the 16 prime issuers with both December 2024 and December 2023 data, 14 reported year-over-year increases in extensions. The three highest reported increases were Carvana Prime (43 bps to 0.86%), CarMax (37 bps to 1.57%), and Mercedes-Benz (28 bps to 1.28%). In addition, Veridian Credit Union reported a 92 bps month-over-month increase to 1.88%, but its servicing report includes all modifications, including holiday skip-a-pays that are offered to customers in good standing.

Of the 18 subprime and nonprime issuers with both December 2024 and December 2023 extension data, seven reported a year-over-year increase in extension rates. The three highest reported increases were DriveTime (170 bps to 4.71%), Carvana Subprime (169 bps to 3.72%), and Westlake (113 bps to 8.39%).

The three issuers with the highest extension rates in December 2024 were Westlake (8.39%), ACM (6.65%), and Exeter (5.85%). However, Westlake's weighted average 60-plus-day delinquency rate was relatively low at 1.81%, compared with Exeter's relatively high average 60-plus-day delinquency rate of 9.68%. ACM's average 60-plus-day delinquency DQ rate was 1.04%.

Table 5

Prime issuer extensions (%)
Based on dollar balance
	Dec 2019	Dec 2020	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Dec 2023	Nov 2024	Dec 2024
Ally	0.54	1.06	0.63	0.74	0.90	0.72	0.96
BMW	0.27	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.27	N/A
Capital One	0.01	0.28	0.12	0.06	0.09	0.11	0.13
CarMax	0.50	0.83	0.58	0.85	1.20	1.51	1.57
Carvana Prime	N/A	N/A	0.17	0.31	0.43	0.82	0.86
Citizens	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.28	0.40
Ent Credit Union (ENT)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.15	0.14
First Community Credit Union (FCCU)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.03	0.08
Ford Credit	1.17	1.76	1.12	1.07	1.40	1.28	1.53
General Electric Credit Union (GECU)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.09	0.13
GM Financial	0.45	0.55	0.39	0.46	0.55	0.52	0.59
GTE Federal Credit Union	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.18	0.21
Harley-Davidson	0.16	0.58	0.34	0.62	0.63	0.55	0.71
Honda	0.22	0.43	0.16	0.16	0.22	0.20	0.26
Hyundai	0.50	0.64	0.51	0.51	0.60	0.59	0.62
Mercedes-Benz	0.21	0.52	0.35	0.61	1.00	1.29	1.28
Nissan	0.89	1.22	0.50	0.37	0.45	0.30	0.39
Oregon Community Credit Union (OCCU)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.08	1.06
Pentagon Federal Credit Union (PenFed)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.41	0.38	0.45
Space Coast Credit Union (SCCU)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.25	0.20
Toyota	0.39	0.49	0.28	0.33	0.40	0.41	0.56
Veridian Credit Union	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.96	1.88
Volkswagen	0.30	0.14	0.16	0.19	0.18	0.36	0.34
World Omni	0.73	0.72	0.53	0.73	0.73	0.76	0.72
Prime average	0.51	0.73	0.46	0.50	0.62	0.69	0.77
Ally--Ally Auto Receivables Trust. CarMax--CarMax Auto Owner Trust. Carvana--Carvana Auto Receivables Trust. ENT--Ent Auto Receivables Trust.FCCU--FCCU Auto Receivables Trust.GECU--GECU Auto Receivables Trust. GM Financial--GM Financial Consumer Automobile Receivables Trust. GTE--GTE Auto Receivables Trust. Hyundai--Hyundai Auto Receivables Trust. Mercedes-Benz--Mercedes-Benz Auto Receivables Trust. OCCU--OCCU Auto Receivables Trust. PenFed--PenFed Auto Receivables Owner Trust. SCCU--SCCU Auto Receivables Trust. Toyota--Toyota Auto Receivables Owner Trust. USAA--USAA Auto Owner Trust. Veridian--Veridian Auto Receivables Trust. Volkswagen--Volkswagen Auto Loan Enhanced Trust. World Omni--World Omni Auto Receivables Trust.Veridian did not report extension separately.The numbers are modifications percentages. NA--Not available. N/A--Not applicable.

Table 6

Nonprime/subprime issuer extensions (%)
Based on dollar balance
	Dec 2019	Dec 2020	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Dec 2023	Nov 2024	Dec 2024
American Credit Acceptance	3.90	3.99	2.83	3.14	3.48	3.04	3.09
ACM	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	9.41	6.48	6.65
AmeriCredit	3.14	3.30	2.93	3.61	3.93	3.39	3.94
Carvana subprime	N/A	N/A	1.09	2.39	2.03	3.36	3.72
CPS	5.71	4.98	3.79	4.72	5.16	4.73	5.07
Drive	1.71	6.11	1.62	1.86	1.92	2.50	2.38
DriveTime(i)/Bridgecrest	2.42	2.94	2.58	3.07	3.01	4.24	4.71
Exeter	4.59	6.56	5.06	6.14	6.21	4.99	5.85
First Help Financial	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.13	0.34
First Investors	4.17	3.91	2.69	3.74	3.01	2.98	3.58
Flagship Credit	3.57	3.96	4.73	5.05	5.59	4.10	3.88
Foursight Capital	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.86	1.99	3.27
GLS	4.26	4.35	3.15	3.88	3.49	3.05	3.33
GLS Select	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.28	1.36
Lendbuzz	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.77	2.29
Prestige	2.56	3.27	3.12	4.50	5.18	4.07	3.51
SDART	1.38	4.52	1.34	1.58	1.81	2.18	2.15
Tidewater	2.08	3.24	2.31	1.83	1.30	N/A	N/A
United Auto Credit	5.34	6.18	3.99	6.06	5.64	3.50	3.54
Vstrong (Exeter)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.94	3.62
Westlake	6.28	6.33	6.39	7.22	7.26	6.73	8.39
World Omni Select(ii)	1.76	2.22	3.61	4.07	3.56	2.19	1.81
Nonprime/subprime average	3.26	4.90	3.20	3.68	3.94	3.53	3.81
(i)The November and December 2024 extension rates for DriveTime Automotive Group Inc. include only series 2021-3 through 2023-3 and Bridgecrest Lending Auto Securitization Trust series 2023-1, 2024-1, 2024-2, and 2024-3. (ii)World Omni Select includes nonprime transactions. AmeriCredit--AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust. Carvana--Carvana Auto Receivables Trust. CPS--CPS Auto Receivables Trust. DriveTime--DriveTime Automotive Group. Exeter--Exeter Automobile Receivables Trust. First Investors--First Investors Auto Owner Trust. Flagship Credit--Flagship Credit Auto Trust. Foursight Capital--Foursight Capital Automobile Receivables Trust. GLS--GLS Auto Receivables Issuer Trust. Lendbuzz--Lendbuzz Securitization Trust. Prestige--Prestige Auto Receivables Trust. SDART--Santander Drive Auto Receivables Trust. United Auto Credit--United Auto Credit Securitization Trust. Westlake--Westlake Automobile Receivables Trust. World Omni--World Omni Auto Receivables Trust. N/A--Not applicable.

Collateral Characteristics: Loan Terms Continued To Lengthen

Prime

The proportion of prime loans with longer terms continued to increase in 2024, as did the annual percentage rates (APRs). Significant year-over-year changes in the prime segment include:

• Loans with original maturities of 73-84 months increased to 19.74% in 2024 from 15.92% in 2023.
• The weighted average APR increased to 6.90% (the highest level since 7.57% in 2001) from 5.64%. Used vehicles as a percent of originations continued to decrease, sliding to 32.05% from 33.78%.
• The weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio rose to 100.20% from 97.26%.
• The weighted average FICO score increased to 762 (the highest since we started tracking this statistic) from 760.

The overall weighted average original maturity increased to 68.05 months from 67.52 due to the growing portion of 73-84 month or longer loans, especially among the newer issuers. Of the 25 issuers who had issuances in 2024, 12 had loans with 76-84 maturities. Six issuers also had transactions with more than 20% consisting of 76-84 months loans: FCCU (57.95%), Citizens (49.88% for 2024-1 and 38.36% for 2024-2), American Heritage (49.16%), SFS (between 40.90% and 47.00% across its three transactions), SCCU (43.90%), and GMF (between 20.00% and 21.00% across its four transactions).

We believe this increase in longer-term loans reflect higher vehicle prices and higher interest rates. Although this supports the growth of vehicle financing by making consumers' monthly payments more affordable, longer-term loans pose increased credit risk because their loss severity is generally higher due to their slower loan amortization. Further, the frequency of default could also increase if issuers make these longer-term loans to weaker credit quality obligors or with higher LTV ratios.

Subprime

Subprime transactions also saw an increase in their percentage of longer-term loans, weighted average LTV ratio, and weighted average APR. Significant year-over-year changes in the subprime segment include:

• The weighted average APR increased to 19.77% in 2024 from 18.96% in 2023.
• The proportion of used vehicles decreased to 81.05% from 85.41%.
• The weighted average LTV ratio increased to 113.27% from 112.70%, which, despite being only marginal, signifies that competition is heating up.
• Longer-term loans with a maturity of 73-84 months increased to 19.24% from 17.96%.

Although 73-84 month loans increased, the portion of 76-84 month loans declined slightly to 1.67% in 2024 from 3.17% in 2023 as some lenders implemented tighter credit policies. The weighted average original maturity remained at about 69.7 months.

Static Pool Performance And Auto Loan Static Index (ALSI)

Prime: CNLs for the 2023 and first-quarter 2024 vintages are trending worse than 2016.  The 2023 vintage, which has cumulative net losses (CNLs) of 0.47% at month 13, is experiencing a 42% increase in losses relative to 2022 with losses exceeding 2016 levels. The 2024 first- and second-quarter vintages are also having similar experiences. However, despite these increases, losses remain lower than the 2008 recessionary levels, and the increase is largely concentrated among a small number of issuers.

These vintages' higher CNLs are partially attributable to the lower recoveries. For example, recoveries for the first-quarter 2024 vintage were 41.34% at month 10, which is significantly lower than 2023 vintage's average at the same month. However, the second-quarter 2024 vintage had slightly better recoveries at month 7 (42.66%), compared with the 2023 and 2022 vintages for same month.

There are a few reasons for the lower recoveries. First, many of the vehicles in the newer vintages were financed when new vehicle prices peaked, and prices have since fallen due to better supply and demand balances. Further, full balance charge-offs are increasing. As lenders attempt to give delinquent borrowers more time to resume their payments, some of those accounts hit the delinquency charge-off threshold (90-120 days) before the vehicle has been repossessed and liquidated.

Late payments on the 2022 vintage (month 25) are starting to trend slightly higher than the 2008 vintage at the same month, and the 2023 vintage at month 13 is trending in line with the 2022 vintage. Sixty-plus-day delinquencies for the first-quarter 2024 vintage were 0.47% at month 10 (higher than all the previous vintages), while the second-quarter 2024 vintage's delinquencies totaled 0.44% at month 7 (which is also higher than those for all the previous vintages).

Overall, the 2024 vintages are off to a weak start, and the rising delinquency levels don't bode well for future performance.

Subprime: 2023 and 2024 quarterly vintages are reporting lower CNLS than the 2022 vintage's abysmal performance.  Lenders started to tighten their credit policies as CNLs on the 2022 vintage reached a higher watermark, matching those of 2008. The most visible evidence of this are the reduced cumulative gross losses of the 2023 and quarterly 2024 vintages, which are in line with or below those of the 2016 through 2018 vintages at the same time (see table 14 in the Appendix I). Low recovery rates have pared back some of this improvement. Still, CNL improved to 5.78% at month 14 for the 2023 vintage, compared with 6.47% for the 2022 vintage at the same month. This improvement was largely due to Exeter, American Credit Acceptance (ACA), Santander, and Westlake successfully tightening their credit policies and incurring lower cumulative gross losses on their 2023 securitizations relative to 2022. Recoveries remain very low on the 2023 vintage at only 33% through month 14. The 2024 quarterly vintages are still young, but they are performing better than the 2022 vintage on a CNL basis.

Sixty-plus-day delinquencies on the 2023 vintage are trending below the 2022 vintage, but they remain high by historical standards. Delinquencies are also elevated for the 2024 quarterly vintages.

Issuer-Specific CNL Performance

This report includes CNL charts for below prime issuers only. We will include the prime issuers in our next quarterly report. (For more information on how we segment issuers, see Appendix II.)

Notable year-over-year CNL performance observations include:

• Six subprime issuers are reporting improved losses on their 2023 and 2024 securitizations relative to 2022: ACA, Exeter, Prestige, SDART, UAC, and Westlake.
• Five issuers that took a little longer to tighten their credit policies or for the benefits to accrue are finally seeing some improvement in their early 2024 vintages: ACM, Carvana, CPS, Foursight, and GLS' GCAR platform.
• AmeriCredit's losses continued to normalize to historical levels, and the transactions continued to perform inside of our base case ECNL with the lowest ECNL within the subprime segment.
• Flagship's 2023 and 2024 issuances continue to perform in line with the 2022 issuances' high loss levels.

Auto Loan ABS Rating Activity/Revised Loss Expectations

Our 2024 surveillance reviews resulted in 313 upgrades and 11 downgrades across U.S. auto loan ABS. The downgrades were all concentrated in the subprime segment and across only two issuers: UAC and Flagship, with some classes downgraded more than once and the series 2022-2 class E notes from both issuers were downgraded to 'CC (sf)' from 'CCC (sf)'.

Table 9

Surveillance actions
		Rating action (by class)							ECNL (no. of transactions)
Date	Issuer	Transactions reviewed	Upgrades	Downgrades	Affirmations	CreditWatch	Removed from Credit Watch	CreditWatch extended	Increased	Decreased	Maintained
	Prime
Jan. 22, 2025	MBART	1							1
	Subprime
Total		1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
MBART--Mercedes-Benz Auto Receivables Trust. ECNLs--Expected cumulative net losses.

Table 10

Mercedes-Benz auto receivables trust
Series	Original lifetime CNL exp.	Revised lifetime CNL exp.
2024-1	1.30	2.15
CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectation.

Appendix I

Table 11

Prime cumulative net losses (%)(i)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(ii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	31	37	26	28	20	31	23	29	21	29	33	35	40	31	33	40	43	15	13	14
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	49.02	53.2	41.25	33.45	22.77	40.72	27.93	31.22	24.03	36.23	41.35	44.25	50.99	41.74	45.08	52.87	71.15	21.05	18.77	17.83
Month
1	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
3	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.04
4	0.09	0.11	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.10	0.07	0.07
5	0.15	0.19	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.08	0.10	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.08	0.12	0.14	0.12
6	0.22	0.27	0.18	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.11	0.11	0.13	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.11	0.09	0.11	0.16	0.19	0.16
7	0.29	0.35	0.23	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.14	0.14	0.16	0.19	0.18	0.18	0.19	0.13	0.11	0.14	0.21	0.24	0.21
8	0.35	0.44	0.28	0.18	0.15	0.12	0.17	0.17	0.20	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.22	0.15	0.13	0.17	0.25	0.28
9	0.42	0.53	0.33	0.21	0.17	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.23	0.26	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.17	0.15	0.20	0.29	0.33
10	0.50	0.63	0.37	0.24	0.19	0.17	0.22	0.22	0.26	0.30	0.29	0.27	0.28	0.18	0.17	0.23	0.34	0.38
11	0.58	0.72	0.41	0.26	0.22	0.19	0.25	0.24	0.29	0.34	0.32	0.30	0.31	0.19	0.19	0.26	0.38
12	0.67	0.81	0.45	0.29	0.24	0.21	0.28	0.27	0.32	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.34	0.20	0.21	0.30	0.42
13	0.75	0.90	0.48	0.31	0.27	0.23	0.30	0.29	0.35	0.41	0.39	0.36	0.37	0.21	0.23	0.33	0.47
14	0.84	0.98	0.51	0.34	0.29	0.26	0.33	0.32	0.38	0.45	0.42	0.39	0.39	0.22	0.26	0.35
15	0.93	1.07	0.54	0.36	0.31	0.28	0.36	0.34	0.41	0.48	0.45	0.42	0.41	0.23	0.28	0.39
16	1.02	1.14	0.58	0.38	0.33	0.30	0.38	0.37	0.43	0.51	0.48	0.45	0.43	0.24	0.30	0.42
17	1.12	1.22	0.61	0.40	0.35	0.32	0.40	0.39	0.46	0.54	0.50	0.48	0.45	0.25	0.32	0.45
18	1.21	1.29	0.64	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.43	0.42	0.48	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.46	0.26	0.34	0.48
19	1.30	1.36	0.67	0.44	0.39	0.35	0.45	0.44	0.51	0.60	0.55	0.53	0.47	0.27	0.36	0.51
20	1.39	1.43	0.69	0.46	0.41	0.37	0.47	0.46	0.53	0.62	0.58	0.55	0.48	0.28	0.38	0.53
21	1.47	1.49	0.72	0.47	0.43	0.38	0.49	0.48	0.55	0.65	0.60	0.58	0.49	0.29	0.40	0.56
22	1.56	1.55	0.74	0.49	0.44	0.40	0.50	0.50	0.57	0.67	0.62	0.60	0.50	0.30	0.41	0.58
23	1.63	1.60	0.76	0.50	0.46	0.41	0.52	0.52	0.60	0.70	0.64	0.61	0.51	0.30	0.43	0.61
24	1.71	1.65	0.77	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.54	0.54	0.62	0.72	0.66	0.63	0.51	0.31	0.45	0.63
25	1.78	1.69	0.79	0.53	0.49	0.44	0.55	0.55	0.64	0.74	0.68	0.64	0.52	0.32	0.47	0.66
26	1.84	1.73	0.80	0.54	0.50	0.45	0.57	0.57	0.65	0.76	0.70	0.65	0.53	0.32	0.48
27	1.91	1.76	0.82	0.55	0.52	0.46	0.58	0.58	0.67	0.78	0.71	0.67	0.53	0.33	0.50
28	1.97	1.79	0.83	0.56	0.53	0.47	0.59	0.60	0.69	0.80	0.73	0.68	0.54	0.34	0.51
29	2.02	1.82	0.84	0.57	0.54	0.48	0.61	0.62	0.70	0.81	0.74	0.68	0.54	0.35	0.52
30	2.07	1.85	0.85	0.57	0.55	0.49	0.62	0.63	0.72	0.83	0.76	0.69	0.54	0.35	0.54
31	2.11	1.88	0.86	0.58	0.56	0.50	0.63	0.65	0.73	0.84	0.78	0.69	0.54	0.36	0.55
32	2.15	1.91	0.87	0.59	0.57	0.50	0.64	0.66	0.74	0.85	0.79	0.69	0.55	0.37	0.56
33	2.18	1.95	0.89	0.52	0.58	0.51	0.65	0.67	0.75	0.86	0.81	0.70	0.55	0.37	0.57
34	2.21	1.97	0.90	0.53	0.59	0.52	0.66	0.68	0.76	0.87	0.82	0.70	0.55	0.37	0.58
35	2.24	1.98	0.91	0.53	0.60	0.52	0.66	0.70	0.77	0.88	0.83	0.70	0.56	0.38	0.59
36	2.27	2.01	0.92	0.54	0.61	0.53	0.67	0.71	0.77	0.89	0.84	0.70	0.56	0.38	0.61
37	2.30	2.16					0.68	0.71	0.78	0.90	0.85	0.70	0.56	0.39	0.62
38	2.32	2.17					0.68	0.72	0.79	0.92	0.86	0.70	0.56	0.39
39	2.34	2.19					0.69	0.73	0.79	0.93	0.86	0.70	0.57	0.39
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings.

Table 12

Subprime cumulative net losses (%)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012(i)	2013	2014(ii)	2015	2016(iii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	19	4	2	14	15	26	26	29	29	38	33	42	39	35	41	40	45	12	14	7
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	17.35	2.52	1.13	10.83	6.82	14.03	13.68	14.53	18.63	22.32	20.46	27.26	25.41	25.92	38.36	34.06	31.50	9.74	12.40	5.11
Month
1	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01
2	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02
3	0.11	0.14	0.31	0.15	0.12	0.12	0.11	0.13	0.13	0.20	0.19	0.13	0.12	0.09	0.12	0.14	0.12	0.14	0.12	0.12
4	0.38	0.40	0.73	0.50	0.37	0.41	0.41	0.41	0.44	0.55	0.52	0.39	0.42	0.29	0.41	0.60	0.47	0.48	0.43	0.44
5	0.83	0.86	1.16	0.77	0.63	0.77	0.74	0.79	0.86	0.96	0.95	0.76	0.83	0.57	0.78	1.22	0.94	0.93	0.85
6	1.39	1.41	1.59	1.03	0.85	1.05	0.98	1.21	1.39	1.47	1.51	1.26	1.34	0.86	1.20	1.93	1.49	1.47	1.33
7	1.91	1.99	2.07	1.34	1.09	1.38	1.34	1.67	1.96	2.02	2.16	1.89	1.96	1.15	1.64	2.63	2.09	2.11	1.84
8	2.43	2.54	2.42	1.65	1.32	1.72	1.70	2.13	2.52	2.57	2.72	2.48	2.53	1.41	2.02	3.26	2.67	2.72
9	2.96	3.20	2.82	2.01	1.57	2.07	2.07	2.60	3.06	3.11	3.24	2.99	3.01	1.64	2.37	3.84	3.23	3.31
10	3.47	3.82	3.10	2.32	1.82	2.45	2.45	3.04	3.61	3.66	3.74	3.46	3.45	1.87	2.74	4.39	3.76
11	3.97	4.49	3.40	2.62	2.08	2.84	2.85	3.49	4.17	4.19	4.25	3.94	3.87	2.11	3.09	4.90	4.27
12	4.47	5.16	3.69	2.91	2.36	3.25	3.28	3.92	4.68	4.71	4.77	4.39	4.21	2.33	3.44	5.44	4.78
13	4.95	5.73	4.05	3.19	2.63	3.64	3.68	4.35	5.16	5.21	5.28	4.84	4.55	2.55	3.81	5.95	5.29
14	5.39	6.28	4.39	3.52	2.91	4.02	4.04	4.75	5.61	5.70	5.76	5.29	4.87	2.77	4.16	6.47	5.78
15	5.87	6.89	4.75	3.85	3.21	4.38	4.40	5.16	6.07	6.20	6.22	5.74	5.16	2.96	4.51	6.99
16	6.38	7.44	5.11	4.17	3.47	4.72	4.77	5.54	6.57	6.66	6.67	6.19	5.45	3.16	4.86	7.49
17	6.89	8.00	5.43	4.50	3.71	5.10	5.14	5.96	7.08	7.08	7.10	6.62	5.69	3.34	5.19	7.99
18	7.39	8.52	5.77	4.79	3.93	5.45	5.53	6.34	7.54	7.50	7.53	7.05	5.88	3.52	5.52	8.49
19	7.91	8.90	6.06	5.06	4.14	5.79	5.88	6.70	8.00	7.89	7.96	7.44	6.07	3.68	5.82	8.96
20	8.39	9.34	6.24	5.33	4.35	6.11	6.20	7.06	8.42	8.28	8.35	7.79	6.23	3.85	6.09	9.41
21	8.86	9.80	6.53	5.57	4.59	6.42	6.52	7.41	8.82	8.66	8.72	8.10	6.38	4.02	6.35	9.82
22	9.32	10.23	6.71	5.77	4.80	6.70	6.81	7.72	9.19	9.04	9.07	8.39	6.52	4.18	6.60	10.22
23	9.76	10.69	6.92	5.97	5.01	6.98	7.08	8.04	9.55	9.39	9.41	8.62	6.66	4.32	6.83	10.60
24	10.19	11.08	7.10	6.17	5.22	7.27	7.34	8.33	9.88	9.73	9.74	8.82	6.79	4.47	7.08	10.98
25	10.54	11.41	7.28	6.38	5.43	7.49	7.56	8.63	10.19	10.06	10.06	9.03	6.92	4.63	7.30	11.35
26	10.90	11.75	7.49	6.61	5.65	7.76	7.80	8.93	10.48	10.38	10.35	9.20	7.03	4.79	7.53
27	11.21	12.07	7.69	6.80	5.86	7.99	8.06	9.20	10.77	10.70	10.64	9.37	7.13	4.93	7.76
28	11.54	12.43	7.91	7.01	6.06	8.14	8.29	9.44	11.06	10.99	10.92	9.52	7.24	5.01	7.99
29	11.88	12.73	8.07	7.21	6.08	8.36	8.53	9.56	11.35	11.28	11.20	9.65	7.33	5.15	8.21
30	12.19	13.04	8.24	7.37	6.22	8.35	8.79	9.81	11.51	11.46	11.45	9.76	7.45	5.30	8.41
31	12.50	13.28	8.41	7.58	6.36	8.57	8.93	10.04	11.77	11.56	11.64	9.86	7.55	5.41	8.61
32	12.77	13.52	8.55	7.72	6.49	8.77	9.16	10.24	12.03	11.82	11.88	9.94	7.64	5.53	8.80
33	12.96	13.75	8.71	7.78	6.61	8.95	9.38	10.46	12.26	12.08	12.09	9.88	7.75	5.63	8.98
34	13.19	13.98	8.82	7.95	6.58	8.61	9.60	10.67	12.48	12.33	12.29	9.94	7.73	5.73	9.16
35	13.38	14.22	8.88	8.10	6.71	8.77	9.80	10.92	12.70	12.56	12.45	10.00	7.82	5.83	9.33
36	13.59	14.42	8.97	8.25	6.84	8.92	9.98	11.13	12.91	12.78	12.60	10.05	7.91	5.93	9.47
37	13.76	14.61	9.05	8.38	6.99	9.07	10.16	11.31	13.10	12.99	12.72	10.12	8.01	6.03	9.64
38	13.92	14.78	9.13	8.54	7.11	9.21	10.32	11.50	13.31	13.19	12.83	10.17	8.10	6.13
39	14.08	14.96	9.22	8.67	7.24	9.36	10.50	11.67	13.49	13.38	12.94	10.21	8.17	6.22
40	14.23	15.12	9.33	8.78	7.37	9.50	10.66	11.60	13.70	13.56	13.03	10.27	8.26	6.31
41	14.39	15.27	9.44	8.92	7.44	9.64	10.82	11.10	13.90	13.75	13.10	10.31	8.36	6.39
42	14.53	15.39	9.50	9.05	7.53	9.77	10.98	11.21	14.10	13.93	13.18	10.36	8.44	6.22
(i)Cumulative net losses declined in month 34 because two transactions with relatively high losses paid off in month 33. (ii)Cumulative net losses declined in months 40 and 41 because some high loss transactions paid off in months 39 and 40. (iii)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions that are not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 13

Prime cumulative gross losses (%)(i)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(ii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	31	37	26	28	20	31	23	29	21	29	33	35	40	31	33	40	43	15	13	14
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	49.02	53.20	41.25	33.45	22.77	40.72	27.93	31.22	24.03	36.23	41.35	44.25	50.99	41.74	45.08	52.87	71.15	21.05	18.77	17.83
Month
1	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01
2	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
3	0.07	0.09	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.08	0.05	0.05
4	0.18	0.20	0.16	0.10	0.12	0.08	0.10	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.13	0.09	0.07	0.07	0.13	0.16	0.11	0.10
5	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.17	0.18	0.13	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.18	0.19	0.21	0.20	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.20	0.23	0.18
6	0.41	0.48	0.35	0.24	0.25	0.18	0.22	0.21	0.23	0.26	0.26	0.27	0.26	0.18	0.16	0.17	0.27	0.32	0.26
7	0.54	0.63	0.45	0.31	0.32	0.23	0.28	0.27	0.29	0.34	0.33	0.34	0.33	0.23	0.20	0.23	0.35	0.41	0.34
8	0.68	0.79	0.55	0.38	0.38	0.29	0.34	0.33	0.36	0.41	0.40	0.41	0.40	0.27	0.24	0.29	0.42	0.49
9	0.81	0.96	0.65	0.45	0.45	0.34	0.41	0.40	0.42	0.48	0.47	0.47	0.46	0.32	0.29	0.34	0.50	0.57
10	0.96	1.14	0.75	0.52	0.53	0.39	0.47	0.46	0.49	0.56	0.54	0.54	0.52	0.36	0.33	0.40	0.59	0.67
11	1.13	1.33	0.85	0.59	0.60	0.45	0.53	0.52	0.56	0.63	0.61	0.60	0.58	0.39	0.37	0.46	0.67
12	1.28	1.50	0.94	0.66	0.67	0.50	0.60	0.57	0.62	0.71	0.68	0.67	0.64	0.43	0.42	0.53	0.76
13	1.44	1.69	1.03	0.73	0.73	0.56	0.66	0.63	0.68	0.78	0.76	0.73	0.70	0.47	0.46	0.59	0.84
14	1.60	1.88	1.11	0.79	0.80	0.62	0.71	0.69	0.75	0.86	0.82	0.80	0.75	0.50	0.51	0.65
15	1.76	2.06	1.20	0.86	0.87	0.67	0.77	0.75	0.81	0.93	0.89	0.86	0.80	0.53	0.56	0.71
16	1.93	2.24	1.29	0.92	0.93	0.72	0.83	0.81	0.87	1.00	0.95	0.92	0.85	0.56	0.60	0.77
17	2.11	2.40	1.37	0.98	0.99	0.77	0.89	0.86	0.92	1.06	1.01	0.98	0.90	0.59	0.65	0.84
18	2.28	2.57	1.45	1.04	1.05	0.82	0.94	0.92	0.98	1.13	1.07	1.04	0.95	0.62	0.69	0.90
19	2.45	2.73	1.53	1.09	1.11	0.87	0.99	0.97	1.04	1.19	1.13	1.09	0.99	0.64	0.74	0.96
20	2.63	2.88	1.60	1.14	1.17	0.91	1.04	1.02	1.09	1.25	1.18	1.15	1.03	0.67	0.78	1.02
21	2.81	3.02	1.67	1.19	1.22	0.95	1.09	1.07	1.14	1.30	1.23	1.20	1.06	0.70	0.82	1.07
22	2.98	3.16	1.74	1.24	1.27	0.99	1.13	1.12	1.19	1.36	1.28	1.24	1.10	0.72	0.86	1.12
23	3.14	3.30	1.80	1.29	1.32	1.03	1.18	1.16	1.24	1.41	1.33	1.28	1.13	0.75	0.90	1.18
24	3.30	3.41	1.86	1.33	1.37	1.07	1.22	1.21	1.28	1.46	1.38	1.32	1.16	0.77	0.94	1.24
25	3.44	3.52	1.91	1.37	1.42	1.11	1.26	1.25	1.33	1.51	1.42	1.36	1.19	0.79	0.98	1.29
26	3.58	3.62	1.96	1.41	1.46	1.14	1.29	1.29	1.37	1.55	1.46	1.39	1.21	0.81	1.02
27	3.72	3.72	2.02	1.44	1.50	1.17	1.33	1.33	1.41	1.60	1.51	1.42	1.24	0.83	1.06
28	3.85	3.80	2.07	1.48	1.54	1.20	1.36	1.37	1.45	1.64	1.55	1.46	1.27	0.85	1.09
29	3.98	3.89	2.11	1.51	1.58	1.23	1.40	1.40	1.49	1.67	1.58	1.49	1.28	0.87	1.13
30	4.10	3.97	2.15	1.54	1.61	1.26	1.43	1.44	1.52	1.71	1.62	1.51	1.30	0.89	1.16
31	4.20	4.05	2.19	1.57	1.66	1.28	1.46	1.47	1.56	1.75	1.65	1.54	1.32	0.91	1.19
32	4.29	4.12	2.23	1.59	1.69	1.30	1.49	1.50	1.59	1.78	1.68	1.56	1.33	0.93	1.23
33	4.38	4.21	2.30	1.49	1.72	1.33	1.52	1.53	1.61	1.81	1.72	1.58	1.35	0.95	1.26
34	4.46	4.28	2.34	1.51	1.75	1.35	1.55	1.56	1.64	1.84	1.74	1.60	1.36	0.96	1.29
35	4.54	4.33	2.37	1.53	1.78	1.37	1.57	1.60	1.67	1.87	1.77	1.61	1.38	0.98	1.32
36	4.61	4.39	2.40	1.55	1.80	1.39	1.59	1.63	1.69	1.89	1.79	1.63	1.40	0.99	1.34
37	4.68	4.72	2.42	1.57	1.83	1.42	1.62	1.65	1.72	1.92	1.83	1.64	1.41	1.01	1.37
38	4.74	4.77	2.45	1.59	1.85	1.43	1.64	1.67	1.74	1.96	1.85	1.66	1.42	1.02
39	4.80	4.82	2.55	1.63	1.87	1.49	1.66	1.70	1.76	1.99	1.88	1.67	1.45	1.04
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 14

Subprime cumulative gross losses (%)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012(i)	2013	2014(ii)	2015	2016(iii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	19	4	2	14	15	26	26	29	29	38	33	42	39	35	41	40	45	12	14	7
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	17.35	2.52	1.13	10.83	6.82	14.03	13.68	14.53	18.63	22.32	20.46	27.26	25.41	25.92	38.36	34.06	31.5	9.74	12.40	5.11
Month
1	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01
2	0.08	0.05	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.04
3	0.21	0.21	0.52	0.26	0.23	0.24	0.23	0.23	0.22	0.30	0.28	0.22	0.20	0.13	0.18	0.20	0.18	0.21	0.18	0.17
4	0.64	0.59	1.18	0.74	0.59	0.69	0.69	0.64	0.66	0.78	0.74	0.61	0.63	0.39	0.58	0.77	0.62	0.63	0.59	0.59
5	1.32	1.24	1.85	1.21	1.03	1.27	1.25	1.23	1.29	1.39	1.36	1.19	1.24	0.77	1.10	1.58	1.23	1.21	1.14
6	2.19	2.09	2.49	1.65	1.45	1.81	1.73	1.89	2.10	2.15	2.18	1.97	2.02	1.21	1.73	2.54	1.96	1.96	1.81
7	3.03	2.98	3.28	2.15	1.90	2.40	2.36	2.64	2.99	2.97	3.13	2.93	2.92	1.70	2.43	3.56	2.80	2.84	2.54
8	3.79	3.79	3.92	2.69	2.33	3.01	3.01	3.40	3.89	3.85	4.01	3.88	3.79	2.17	3.11	4.52	3.64	3.73
9	4.67	4.81	4.66	3.27	2.77	3.62	3.67	4.19	4.79	4.70	4.85	4.76	4.59	2.62	3.78	5.45	4.49	4.61
10	5.44	5.79	5.21	3.85	3.22	4.27	4.36	4.98	5.74	5.58	5.69	5.61	5.33	3.09	4.48	6.35	5.34
11	6.32	6.85	5.75	4.42	3.68	4.94	5.09	5.76	6.70	6.46	6.55	6.43	6.03	3.66	5.16	7.22	6.13
12	7.15	7.91	6.28	4.95	4.21	5.66	5.85	6.52	7.61	7.31	7.40	7.28	6.69	4.12	5.84	8.10	6.94
13	7.96	8.84	6.85	5.47	4.73	6.36	6.60	7.29	8.49	8.14	8.28	8.10	7.33	4.59	6.53	8.96	7.76
14	8.70	9.70	7.44	6.06	5.25	7.07	7.31	8.03	9.32	8.98	9.12	8.92	7.94	5.06	7.20	9.81	8.53
15	9.48	10.71	8.06	6.64	5.79	7.74	8.00	8.77	10.17	9.81	9.94	9.74	8.51	5.51	7.87	10.65
16	10.27	11.62	8.73	7.24	6.29	8.39	8.70	9.49	11.03	10.58	10.74	10.54	9.06	5.97	8.53	11.48
17	11.07	12.58	9.29	7.81	6.80	9.07	9.39	10.22	11.90	11.34	11.52	11.32	9.58	6.40	9.18	12.28
18	11.86	13.46	9.87	8.36	7.25	9.75	10.10	10.90	12.72	12.04	12.29	12.06	10.07	6.83	9.80	13.08
19	12.67	14.10	10.37	8.90	7.67	10.40	10.77	11.57	13.52	12.73	13.04	12.73	10.55	7.24	10.40	13.85
20	13.43	14.82	10.72	9.42	8.10	11.01	11.41	12.22	14.28	13.41	13.76	13.36	10.99	7.64	10.95	14.58
21	14.15	15.58	11.29	9.92	8.54	11.60	12.03	12.83	15.00	14.06	14.45	13.93	11.41	8.04	11.48	15.27
22	14.86	16.28	11.68	10.38	8.97	12.15	12.62	13.42	15.67	14.70	15.10	14.46	11.82	8.44	12.00	15.93
23	15.57	17.08	12.04	10.81	9.41	12.70	13.17	13.99	16.31	15.31	15.73	14.93	12.21	8.81	12.49	16.57
24	16.26	17.74	12.38	11.23	9.83	13.24	13.71	14.53	16.92	15.92	16.34	15.36	12.58	9.17	12.96	17.19
25	16.86	18.32	12.73	11.65	10.25	13.84	14.26	15.06	17.50	16.49	16.92	15.77	12.94	9.54	13.41	17.79
26	17.48	18.90	13.11	12.09	10.66	14.36	14.77	15.59	18.04	17.05	17.47	16.15	13.27	9.89	13.85
27	18.03	19.46	13.52	12.51	11.06	14.82	15.26	16.09	18.56	17.59	18.02	16.51	13.60	10.24	14.29
28	18.58	20.05	13.88	12.93	11.45	15.18	15.73	16.55	19.08	18.11	18.53	16.85	13.91	10.48	14.71
29	19.14	20.58	14.20	13.32	11.56	15.60	16.19	16.84	19.59	18.60	19.02	17.17	14.21	10.80	15.12
30	19.67	21.14	14.51	13.69	11.86	15.72	16.64	17.29	19.97	19.00	19.48	17.49	14.51	11.11	15.51
31	20.19	21.55	14.82	14.13	12.18	16.14	16.96	17.70	20.43	19.29	19.86	17.77	14.80	11.39	15.88
32	20.56	21.97	15.11	14.48	12.47	16.53	17.41	18.10	20.87	19.75	20.27	18.04	15.08	11.66	16.23
33	20.95	22.35	15.42	14.74	12.71	16.91	17.80	18.50	21.28	20.18	20.64	18.19	15.35	11.92	16.56
34	21.35	22.75	15.64	15.09	12.96	16.50	18.20	18.87	21.68	20.58	20.99	18.42	15.51	12.16	16.90
35	21.70	23.19	15.82	15.39	13.23	16.83	18.57	19.34	22.06	20.98	21.29	18.65	15.76	12.39	17.20
36	22.09	23.56	15.98	15.68	13.50	17.14	18.92	19.70	22.50	21.36	21.59	18.86	16.00	12.62	17.49
37	22.41	23.90	16.15	15.95	13.77	17.43	19.25	20.03	22.85	21.71	21.84	19.07	16.24	12.84	17.79
38	22.73	24.21	16.32	16.23	14.02	17.74	19.55	20.34	23.21	22.05	22.08	19.26	16.46	13.05
39	23.02	24.52	16.49	16.51	14.26	18.02	19.88	20.64	23.54	22.39	22.30	19.44	16.69	13.26
40	23.21	24.81	16.69	16.76	14.52	18.31	20.17	20.59	23.96	22.69	22.50	19.63	16.90	13.44
41	23.50	25.11	16.89	17.01	14.72	18.57	20.46	19.90	24.38	23.05	22.69	19.81	17.11	13.63
42	23.75	25.35	17.02	17.26	14.91	18.82	20.74	20.12	24.70	23.41	23.01	19.97	17.31	13.35
(i)Cumulative gross losses declined in month 34 as two transactions with relatively high losses paid off in month 33. (ii)Cumulative gross losses declined in months 40 and 41 as some high loss transactions paid off in months 39 and 40. (iii)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 15

Prime 60-plus-day delinquencies (%)(i)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(ii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	31	37	26	28	20	31	23	29	21	29	33	35	40	31	33	40	43	15	13	14
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	49.02	53.20	41.25	33.45	22.77	40.72	27.93	31.22	24.03	36.23	41.35	44.25	50.99	41.74	45.08	52.87	71.15	21.05	18.77	17.83
Month
1	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.09	0.06	0.07
2	0.18	0.15	0.12	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.10	0.11	0.10	0.11	0.11	0.09	0.09	0.11	0.14	0.17	0.15	0.12
3	0.26	0.20	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.09	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.17	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.13	0.14	0.17	0.21	0.22	0.26	0.19
4	0.31	0.25	0.21	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.18	0.15	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.17	0.19	0.14	0.17	0.21	0.25	0.27	0.32	0.23
5	0.32	0.30	0.24	0.15	0.13	0.14	0.20	0.18	0.21	0.23	0.22	0.20	0.22	0.16	0.20	0.25	0.29	0.30	0.35
6	0.31	0.33	0.25	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.22	0.20	0.22	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.24	0.17	0.23	0.29	0.32	0.35	0.41
7	0.30	0.35	0.26	0.18	0.17	0.17	0.24	0.22	0.24	0.26	0.26	0.23	0.25	0.17	0.26	0.31	0.36	0.38	0.44
8	0.31	0.41	0.29	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.25	0.24	0.27	0.28	0.26	0.25	0.27	0.19	0.28	0.35	0.39	0.46
9	0.33	0.43	0.31	0.20	0.19	0.21	0.27	0.25	0.30	0.31	0.28	0.26	0.28	0.18	0.30	0.36	0.41	0.46
10	0.36	0.43	0.32	0.21	0.23	0.23	0.29	0.26	0.31	0.33	0.32	0.28	0.30	0.19	0.35	0.41	0.44	0.47
11	0.41	0.45	0.33	0.22	0.26	0.26	0.32	0.26	0.33	0.34	0.33	0.30	0.31	0.20	0.38	0.44	0.46
12	0.47	0.50	0.33	0.25	0.26	0.27	0.34	0.28	0.34	0.35	0.33	0.32	0.33	0.20	0.42	0.46	0.49
13	0.48	0.52	0.37	0.26	0.26	0.28	0.35	0.31	0.37	0.36	0.34	0.35	0.32	0.22	0.44	0.51	0.50
14	0.50	0.54	0.39	0.26	0.26	0.29	0.38	0.32	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.36	0.33	0.24	0.47	0.54
15	0.57	0.57	0.40	0.28	0.28	0.32	0.40	0.35	0.38	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.33	0.25	0.48	0.55
16	0.60	0.60	0.43	0.31	0.30	0.34	0.42	0.38	0.42	0.41	0.39	0.37	0.32	0.26	0.51	0.58
17	0.61	0.62	0.44	0.31	0.33	0.35	0.46	0.37	0.44	0.44	0.41	0.38	0.32	0.28	0.54	0.60
18	0.63	0.64	0.46	0.32	0.33	0.35	0.45	0.39	0.44	0.44	0.42	0.42	0.32	0.28	0.55	0.60
19	0.66	0.66	0.48	0.33	0.35	0.37	0.46	0.40	0.45	0.44	0.42	0.42	0.32	0.30	0.56	0.62
20	0.69	0.70	0.50	0.35	0.37	0.37	0.50	0.44	0.49	0.45	0.42	0.41	0.33	0.33	0.56	0.63
21	0.72	0.66	0.52	0.35	0.38	0.41	0.49	0.45	0.51	0.45	0.43	0.43	0.33	0.33	0.56	0.66
22	0.76	0.65	0.55	0.38	0.42	0.45	0.51	0.43	0.52	0.49	0.45	0.40	0.32	0.36	0.60	0.69
23	0.79	0.66	0.55	0.40	0.44	0.47	0.56	0.45	0.55	0.51	0.46	0.40	0.33	0.37	0.63	0.71
24	0.85	0.69	0.55	0.42	0.46	0.47	0.58	0.45	0.55	0.50	0.46	0.41	0.34	0.38	0.65	0.72
25	0.86	0.71	0.58	0.43	0.46	0.46	0.60	0.48	0.55	0.50	0.47	0.40	0.35	0.40	0.69	0.74
26	0.88	0.71	0.60	0.44	0.46	0.48	0.62	0.49	0.59	0.51	0.48	0.42	0.35	0.42	0.71
27	0.93	0.75	0.64	0.48	0.47	0.51	0.65	0.52	0.60	0.52	0.48	0.43	0.35	0.41	0.73
28	0.94	0.76	0.66	0.49	0.51	0.54	0.73	0.55	0.67	0.56	0.51	0.40	0.38	0.44	0.77
29	0.96	0.80	0.66	0.51	0.52	0.54	0.74	0.56	0.68	0.58	0.53	0.41	0.38	0.45	0.81
30	0.91	0.83	0.69	0.52	0.48	0.55	0.72	0.57	0.66	0.56	0.55	0.40	0.40	0.45	0.81
31	0.91	0.86	0.73	0.55	0.55	0.56	0.77	0.58	0.68	0.57	0.55	0.40	0.43	0.49	0.82
32	0.95	0.89	0.63	0.53	0.58	0.57	0.78	0.59	0.70	0.58	0.55	0.42	0.46	0.49	0.83
33	0.97	0.91	0.69	0.57	0.62	0.62	0.79	0.62	0.72	0.60	0.56	0.39	0.47	0.48	0.83
34	1.02	0.89	0.70	0.59	0.66	0.64	0.80	0.63	0.75	0.64	0.55	0.40	0.50	0.51	0.89
35	1.06	0.92	0.72	0.63	0.68	0.67	0.86	0.63	0.77	0.64	0.54	0.42	0.50	0.55	0.91
36	1.13	0.87	0.72	0.67	0.65	0.66	0.87	0.65	0.78	0.64	0.55	0.41	0.51	0.54	0.92
37	1.16	1.03					0.90	0.69	0.78	0.64	0.55	0.44	0.56	0.57	0.95
38	1.16	1.05					0.93	0.68	0.81	0.68	0.55	0.46	0.56	0.60
39	1.21	1.09					0.96	0.72	0.74	0.71	0.56	0.45	0.61	0.62
(i)We extended the reporting period for the prime 2013 and subsequent vintages to 39 months from 36 to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 16

Subprime 60-plus-day delinquencies (%)(i)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(ii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	19	4	2	14	15	26	26	29	29	38	33	42	39	35	41	40	45	12	14	7
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	17.35	2.52	1.13	10.83	6.82	14.03	13.68	14.53	18.63	22.32	20.46	27.26	25.41	25.92	38.36	34.06	31.5	9.74	12.40	5.11
Month
1	0.04	0.06	0.05	0.10	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.11	0.06	0.10	0.17	0.11	0.10	0.12	0.19	0.15	0.09	0.17	0.13	0.15
2	0.64	0.69	1.22	1.07	0.54	0.67	0.61	0.89	1.07	1.09	1.30	1.04	0.84	0.69	0.96	1.35	0.87	0.99	0.92	1.06
3	1.42	1.51	1.42	1.74	1.04	1.47	1.47	1.78	2.29	2.06	2.72	2.53	2.05	1.47	2.02	2.88	2.08	2.09	2.04	2.21
4	2.09	1.82	1.51	1.86	1.25	1.97	2.08	2.29	2.97	2.64	3.44	3.31	2.82	1.93	2.67	3.77	2.82	2.80	2.62	2.95
5	2.44	1.85	1.64	1.97	1.36	2.33	2.49	2.59	3.20	2.90	3.70	3.53	3.24	2.00	3.04	4.27	3.21	3.40	3.23
6	2.61	1.87	1.68	2.10	1.24	2.37	2.58	2.87	3.24	3.03	3.68	3.67	3.51	2.10	3.34	4.59	3.58	3.95	3.56
7	2.82	2.24	2.07	2.38	1.32	2.24	2.47	3.03	3.36	3.28	3.61	3.77	3.60	2.18	3.57	4.64	3.83	4.21	3.92
8	2.97	2.60	1.35	2.58	1.50	2.38	2.59	3.27	3.61	3.48	3.69	3.85	3.57	2.29	3.83	4.67	4.06	4.50
9	3.03	2.79	1.04	2.61	1.72	2.62	2.92	3.46	3.99	3.78	3.91	3.95	3.57	2.44	4.09	4.80	4.27	4.83
10	3.13	2.75	1.24	2.54	1.93	2.98	3.26	3.60	4.24	4.00	4.19	4.13	3.59	2.54	4.27	5.02	4.35
11	3.25	2.57	1.52	2.50	2.04	3.34	3.45	3.83	4.37	4.00	4.58	4.33	3.70	2.72	4.52	5.23	4.50
12	3.32	2.45	1.76	2.75	2.14	3.47	3.58	4.01	4.30	4.16	4.90	4.54	3.74	2.93	4.85	5.50	4.72
13	3.34	2.55	1.75	3.05	2.40	3.43	3.66	4.19	4.45	4.42	4.97	4.86	3.78	3.10	5.12	5.64	4.90
14	3.65	2.57	2.40	3.30	2.41	3.52	3.79	4.27	4.78	4.43	4.99	5.09	3.78	3.28	5.39	5.81	5.26
15	4.00	2.84	1.75	3.52	2.56	3.71	3.94	4.58	5.14	4.49	5.18	5.16	3.82	3.43	5.65	6.11
16	4.15	2.82	1.74	3.58	2.58	3.88	4.30	4.75	5.44	4.79	5.34	5.29	3.76	3.55	5.78	6.31
17	4.37	2.30	1.86	3.64	2.49	4.14	4.53	4.79	5.54	4.70	5.49	5.37	3.64	3.69	5.83	6.49
18	4.45	2.25	1.88	3.73	2.35	4.13	4.52	4.85	5.57	4.79	5.62	5.35	3.54	3.87	6.01	6.67
19	4.55	2.42	2.47	3.94	2.40	4.16	4.47	4.80	5.49	4.88	5.72	5.33	3.58	4.02	6.00	6.64
20	4.47	2.64	1.56	4.04	2.57	4.19	4.47	4.89	5.54	4.93	5.82	5.15	3.65	4.20	6.04	6.62
21	4.66	2.82	1.23	4.03	2.80	4.28	4.57	5.00	5.69	5.09	5.83	5.00	3.64	4.33	6.11	6.69
22	4.74	2.53	1.26	3.92	3.00	4.46	4.62	5.03	5.74	5.28	5.89	4.80	3.67	4.37	6.09	6.67
23	4.57	2.30	1.43	4.08	2.97	4.58	4.57	5.15	5.71	5.22	5.97	4.67	3.68	4.53	6.17	6.80
24	4.56	2.11	1.66	4.42	3.17	4.63	4.62	5.34	5.56	5.23	6.06	4.51	3.77	4.78	6.30	6.90
25	4.42	2.22	1.77	4.71	3.30	4.67	4.88	5.34	5.60	5.44	6.13	4.40	3.79	4.92	6.46	6.94
26	4.54	2.33	2.16	4.94	3.32	4.62	4.98	5.38	5.74	5.41	6.16	4.37	3.97	5.06	6.62
27	4.62	2.60	1.72	5.00	3.43	4.64	5.00	5.50	6.13	5.39	6.21	4.37	4.07	5.15	6.86
28	4.77	2.70	1.70	5.10	3.29	4.84	5.26	5.55	6.31	5.40	6.31	4.29	4.34	5.25	6.94
29	4.93	2.04	2.00	5.29	3.21	4.90	5.53	5.80	6.26	5.38	6.40	4.12	4.54	5.22	7.00
30	4.80	1.99	1.96	5.40	2.90	5.05	5.58	5.84	6.44	5.28	6.48	4.02	4.63	5.40	7.15
31	4.82	2.20	2.69	5.56	2.84	5.18	5.63	5.87	6.31	5.67	6.60	3.97	4.84	5.37	7.18
32	4.73	2.41	1.60	5.66	3.14	5.24	5.70	6.18	6.24	5.83	6.42	4.04	5.04	5.34	7.23
33	4.69	2.83	1.25	5.65	3.48	4.98	5.96	6.24	6.32	6.11	6.18	4.08	5.14	5.42	7.24
34	4.73	2.48	1.30	5.57	3.66	5.23	5.92	6.27	6.52	6.08	5.94	4.02	5.30	5.38	7.25
35	4.49	2.26	1.68	5.67	3.64	5.31	5.96	6.51	6.51	6.05	5.73	4.11	5.48	5.54	7.41
36	4.41	2.12	1.81	5.99	3.73	5.47	5.86	6.56	6.50	6.05	5.54	4.16	5.61	5.75	7.52
37	4.34	2.29	2.02	6.46	3.77	5.55	6.17	6.57	6.51	6.22	5.22	4.29	5.81	5.79	7.56
38	4.30	2.31	2.90	6.67	3.79	5.74	6.36	6.62	6.60	6.31	5.18	4.52	5.96	5.86
39	4.40	2.69	2.48	6.70	3.97	5.99	6.57	6.69	6.81	6.34	5.17	4.71	6.05	5.83
40	4.52	2.80	2.17	6.76	4.03	5.90	6.89	6.61	7.23	6.41	4.83	4.96	6.32	5.90
41	4.71	1.97	2.24	7.10	4.04	6.12	7.16	7.14	7.57	6.66	4.65	5.00	6.35	5.89
42	4.62	2.03	2.09	6.96	3.62	6.23	7.30	7.01	7.22	6.68	4.67	5.17	6.39	5.66
(i)Beginning in 2016, includes AmeriCredit and SDART transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 17

Prime cumulative recoveries (%)(i)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(ii)	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	31	37	26	28	20	31	23	29	21	29	33	35	40	31	33	40	43	15	13	14
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	49.02	53.20	41.25	33.45	22.77	40.72	27.93	31.22	24.03	36.23	41.35	44.25	50.99	41.74	45.08	52.87	71.15	21.05	18.77	17.83
Month
1	27.98	0.00	23.32	19.68	21.47	20.28	18.61	31.98	26.35	25.57	16.46	26.76	35.00	27.48	29.76	0.00	23.80	2.03	32.62	29.04
2	49.69	43.02	40.43	47.24	65.16	59.19	57.05	54.08	40.70	43.19	41.64	49.03	44.76	46.40	46.08	34.62	36.41	38.68	35.90	28.96
3	47.75	41.67	42.50	48.71	63.52	56.24	53.60	54.69	39.78	42.03	42.47	47.08	47.60	46.98	44.72	37.63	37.19	34.94	37.03	28.98
4	44.53	40.73	42.09	48.33	60.04	54.66	47.95	50.42	41.08	39.93	41.61	44.95	45.13	43.16	44.25	34.05	34.92	34.84	39.78	31.56
5	44.98	41.42	44.01	48.39	60.63	55.15	46.94	50.07	42.86	41.09	42.14	46.63	44.14	42.55	46.60	35.97	37.00	36.86	39.34
6	45.67	41.72	46.10	50.04	60.98	56.11	48.71	50.38	43.52	42.71	43.46	47.21	44.04	45.18	48.07	36.59	39.15	37.89	40.25
7	46.28	42.13	47.29	51.74	61.48	56.68	49.14	52.08	44.53	44.07	44.74	48.13	44.58	47.60	48.27	38.39	39.76	39.75	42.66
8	47.28	42.85	48.22	52.86	61.96	57.18	51.82	52.89	45.68	45.80	45.71	49.07	45.94	49.53	49.70	41.63	40.82	40.60
9	47.46	43.53	49.09	54.60	62.30	56.80	53.33	53.37	47.04	46.85	46.86	49.77	46.71	51.78	50.64	44.26	41.74	41.32
10	47.34	44.19	49.84	55.52	62.95	56.76	53.60	53.88	47.38	47.08	47.48	50.24	48.25	54.04	52.27	45.26	43.06	41.34
11	47.05	44.99	50.88	56.31	63.01	57.42	54.19	54.71	47.57	47.94	48.63	50.74	48.03	55.44	52.73	45.96	43.94
12	46.96	45.26	51.66	57.02	63.29	57.98	54.79	55.30	48.51	48.28	49.22	51.41	48.30	56.90	53.21	45.95	45.30
13	46.94	45.79	52.29	57.84	63.54	58.55	54.89	56.05	49.68	49.01	49.57	51.83	49.38	58.24	53.38	46.73	46.02
14	46.85	46.48	52.97	58.10	64.16	58.60	54.94	56.21	50.05	49.64	49.98	52.11	49.79	59.07	53.48	47.68
15	46.62	47.11	53.61	58.77	64.35	58.85	55.21	56.22	50.34	50.27	50.61	52.42	50.77	60.20	53.58	48.23
16	46.56	47.66	54.07	59.25	64.55	59.19	55.55	56.48	50.95	50.25	50.96	52.44	51.57	60.87	54.09	48.73
17	46.43	48.18	54.70	59.83	64.73	59.23	55.70	56.73	51.38	50.66	51.49	52.67	52.32	61.22	54.76	48.96
18	46.44	48.71	55.17	60.24	64.53	59.45	55.73	56.79	51.70	50.62	51.90	52.88	53.26	61.59	55.06	49.28
19	46.57	49.10	55.65	60.93	64.42	59.81	55.97	56.84	51.84	51.04	52.24	52.95	54.12	62.05	55.02	49.63
20	46.78	49.47	56.09	61.35	64.75	59.98	56.51	56.96	52.19	51.48	52.66	53.00	54.95	62.29	55.04	50.20
21	46.89	49.90	56.45	61.72	65.07	60.09	56.81	57.03	52.26	51.77	52.87	53.06	55.70	62.76	55.40	50.41
22	47.13	50.36	56.99	61.92	65.23	60.42	57.17	57.22	52.61	52.00	53.09	53.06	56.37	63.09	55.83	50.81
23	47.23	50.69	57.43	62.29	65.24	60.56	57.23	57.44	52.70	52.19	53.24	53.50	56.93	63.46	56.01	51.13
24	47.49	51.11	58.01	62.61	65.43	60.57	57.45	57.63	52.86	52.32	53.41	53.66	57.67	63.60	56.28	51.23
25	47.77	51.48	58.47	62.81	65.61	60.77	57.42	58.02	53.21	52.60	53.54	54.01	58.25	63.77	56.51	51.66
26	48.04	51.86	58.82	63.14	65.61	60.97	57.66	58.23	53.48	52.77	53.76	54.30	58.73	63.98	56.72
27	48.24	52.25	59.11	63.35	65.67	61.26	58.02	58.47	53.52	53.09	54.01	54.63	59.36	63.97	56.91
28	48.46	52.56	59.44	63.71	65.84	61.47	58.17	58.64	53.80	53.27	54.25	54.94	59.71	63.82	57.08
29	48.71	52.83	59.74	63.90	66.03	61.69	58.18	58.74	53.95	53.46	54.48	55.38	60.17	63.78	57.51
30	48.93	53.12	60.09	64.11	66.12	61.88	58.38	58.84	54.20	53.69	54.58	55.96	60.63	64.04	57.89
31	49.23	53.39	60.47	64.33	66.38	62.19	58.55	58.95	54.34	53.88	54.61	56.54	60.91	64.24	58.11
32	49.51	53.67	60.84	64.40	66.49	62.39	58.87	59.14	54.63	54.21	54.67	57.03	61.25	64.52	58.45
33	49.79	53.80	61.06	65.35	66.55	62.71	59.05	59.18	54.91	54.47	54.70	57.43	61.55	64.84	58.75
34	50.05	54.07	61.23	65.65	66.71	62.79	59.50	59.20	55.25	54.70	54.76	57.83	61.73	65.24	58.97
35	50.26	54.34	61.51	65.95	66.75	62.96	59.61	59.29	55.66	54.83	54.89	58.28	62.09	65.35	59.37
36	50.46	54.56	61.61	66.11	66.85	63.12	59.85	59.52	56.00	55.03	55.14	58.62	62.32	65.63	59.64
37	50.66	54.26					59.98	59.72	56.35	55.25	55.37	59.00	62.56	65.76	59.65
38	50.87	54.49					60.22	59.85	56.61	55.51	55.62	59.40	62.78	65.96
39	51.08	54.71					60.74	60.10	56.87	55.71	55.84	59.80	63.03	66.16
(i)Starting this month, we have extended the performance data for the recent vintages (2013 onwards) to 39 months to account for the lengthening of loan terms. (ii)Beginning in 2016, we included data from transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Table 17

Subprime cumulative recoveries (%)
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016(i)	2017	2018(ii)	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
No. of deals	19	4	2	14	15	26	26	29	29	38	33	42	39	35	41	40	45	12	14	7
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)	17.35	2.52	1.13	10.83	6.82	14.03	13.68	14.53	18.63	22.32	20.46	27.26	25.41	25.92	38.36	34.06	31.5	9.74	12.40	5.11
Month
1	50.45	4.68	26.37	13.24	38.17	34.26	48.95	26.51	19.69	15.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
2	52.67	16.20	33.03	40.00	48.39	49.13	50.63	44.56	42.02	31.09	27.69	35.86	37.57	29.60	35.57	28.04	21.62	28.13	37.22	29.27
3	46.95	29.34	37.37	41.47	47.18	52.07	55.86	45.53	43.70	36.42	33.07	40.27	39.40	31.98	34.67	32.47	29.33	32.56	38.80	40.90
4	38.89	27.91	35.33	35.15	42.05	42.02	42.71	38.13	37.37	33.71	29.27	36.51	33.91	25.98	29.38	23.21	22.71	22.52	25.08	27.19
5	36.34	28.40	35.45	37.94	42.98	41.06	42.01	37.93	36.74	33.13	30.05	37.49	34.15	28.40	30.60	23.93	23.22	23.36	25.49
6	35.89	31.83	34.81	38.97	44.45	43.35	45.07	38.11	36.19	33.07	31.05	37.06	34.20	31.03	32.34	24.66	24.27	24.16	26.44
7	36.19	32.88	35.59	39.61	45.43	44.30	45.17	38.54	36.08	33.38	31.32	36.04	33.26	34.06	34.27	26.65	25.47	25.31	27.18
8	36.63	32.92	36.98	40.39	45.82	44.39	45.00	39.35	36.71	34.22	32.71	36.03	33.66	36.85	36.65	28.74	27.04	26.97
9	36.59	33.43	38.30	40.34	45.82	44.24	44.87	40.07	37.59	34.88	33.84	37.17	34.80	39.39	38.64	30.51	28.76	28.28
10	37.35	33.91	39.23	41.16	45.64	44.21	44.88	40.84	38.47	35.43	34.90	38.34	35.66	41.55	40.16	31.89	30.09
11	37.65	34.37	39.72	42.06	45.70	43.96	45.01	41.31	39.06	36.08	35.76	39.06	36.41	41.82	41.56	32.93	31.07
12	37.83	34.69	40.13	42.55	45.90	43.85	44.95	41.62	39.64	36.53	36.37	39.88	37.50	43.18	42.49	33.76	31.84
13	38.19	35.11	39.93	42.96	46.14	44.19	45.17	42.03	40.32	36.89	37.01	40.16	38.38	44.38	43.22	34.63	32.54
14	38.40	35.30	40.10	43.14	46.16	44.42	45.56	42.36	40.82	37.29	37.55	40.57	39.05	45.58	43.82	35.18	33.06
15	38.47	35.64	40.15	43.33	46.12	44.69	45.88	42.70	41.22	37.59	38.09	40.98	39.66	46.54	44.28	35.55
16	38.35	35.95	40.70	43.63	46.41	45.00	46.05	42.98	41.28	37.78	38.52	41.20	40.15	47.24	44.63	35.90
17	38.27	36.44	40.81	43.76	46.81	45.04	46.08	43.02	41.35	38.13	38.96	41.38	40.97	48.10	44.91	36.17
18	38.16	36.70	40.95	44.05	47.14	45.32	46.09	43.18	41.54	38.34	39.25	41.39	41.95	48.79	45.12	36.31
19	37.99	36.91	40.97	44.45	47.36	45.45	46.14	43.34	41.59	38.60	39.49	41.44	42.85	49.49	45.39	36.53
20	37.93	37.02	41.29	44.79	47.45	45.62	46.34	43.41	41.72	38.78	39.83	41.53	43.68	50.07	45.71	36.67
21	37.81	37.20	41.68	45.16	47.46	45.73	46.46	43.46	41.88	38.89	40.13	41.70	44.44	50.57	45.97	36.89
22	37.72	37.29	42.01	45.63	47.53	45.84	46.65	43.59	41.96	38.98	40.44	41.86	45.18	51.05	46.22	37.08
23	37.74	37.47	42.00	45.90	47.68	45.98	46.82	43.67	42.06	39.14	40.65	42.12	45.82	51.51	46.46	37.26
24	37.70	37.64	42.24	46.11	47.83	46.01	47.01	43.72	42.17	39.25	40.81	42.37	46.37	51.85	46.64	37.41
25	37.87	37.79	42.37	46.21	47.84	46.95	47.64	43.78	42.27	39.33	40.97	42.59	46.91	52.08	46.84	37.50
26	38.04	37.90	42.49	46.36	47.84	47.04	47.83	43.73	42.40	39.42	41.16	42.88	47.42	52.22	46.98
27	38.23	38.01	42.68	46.60	47.82	47.13	47.84	43.79	42.45	39.48	41.33	43.12	47.86	52.34	47.04
28	38.31	38.06	42.66	46.73	47.85	47.36	47.97	43.89	42.46	39.57	41.42	43.33	48.28	52.61	47.10
29	38.38	38.21	42.78	46.80	47.99	47.41	47.92	44.03	42.48	39.60	41.47	43.66	48.69	52.71	47.14
30	38.49	38.38	42.85	47.11	48.18	47.67	47.85	44.04	42.68	39.81	41.52	44.02	48.96	52.77	47.15
31	38.58	38.45	42.90	47.40	48.31	47.63	47.93	44.06	42.67	40.09	41.67	44.37	49.29	52.96	47.17
32	38.79	38.54	43.03	47.68	48.44	47.66	47.90	44.24	42.66	40.13	41.67	44.73	49.63	53.08	47.17
33	38.98	38.59	43.16	48.11	48.52	47.76	47.84	44.23	42.67	40.15	41.68	45.39	49.84	53.33	47.20
34	39.07	38.62	43.26	48.17	49.68	48.08	47.76	44.21	42.67	40.21	41.71	45.73	50.30	53.48	47.21
35	39.20	38.75	43.50	48.19	49.72	48.18	47.73	44.40	42.67	40.27	41.80	46.07	50.56	53.58	47.24
36	39.33	38.86	43.59	48.22	49.72	48.23	47.74	44.33	42.87	40.29	41.88	46.40	50.75	53.65	47.30
37	39.49	38.94	43.69	48.27	49.68	48.24	47.73	44.33	42.91	40.30	42.01	46.65	50.87	53.70	47.31
38	39.63	39.01	43.77	48.22	49.70	48.34	47.72	44.26	42.92	40.30	42.14	46.91	50.99	53.76
39	39.74	39.06	43.81	48.29	49.70	48.28	47.68	44.24	43.09	40.31	42.23	47.17	51.20	53.79
40	39.95	39.14	43.85	48.39	49.72	48.38	47.04	44.33	43.11	40.34	42.33	47.39	51.28	53.79
41	40.04	39.24	43.88	48.38	49.85	48.37	47.60	44.58	43.29	40.46	42.48	47.63	51.34	53.81
42	40.13	39.35	43.95	48.38	49.90	48.37	47.53	44.68	43.25	40.64	43.01	47.83	51.43	54.00
43											43.69	48.02	51.55	54.27
(i)Beginning in 2016 Includes SDART and AmeriCredit transactions not rated by S&P Global Ratings. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Appendix II: Auto Tracker Frequently Asked Questions

How do you define prime auto loan ABS?

We generally categorize prime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial expected cumulative net losses (ECNLs) of 3.25% or less and average FICO scores of 700 or higher. We include CarMax's and Carvana's prime pools in this segment.

How do you define nonprime auto loan ABS?

We generally categorize nonprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of approximately 3.25% to 7.5%. These usually have average FICO scores of 620-680, but not always.

How do you define subprime auto loan ABS?

We generally categorize subprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of at least 7.5%, average FICO scores of less than 620, and annual percentage rates (APRs) that exceed 14.0%.

How do you calculate the monthly net loss rate?

The monthly net loss rate is annualized. It equals each transaction's net loss rate weighted by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index.

We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. Transactions usually have zero or low losses during their first three months, which dilutes the composite figures.

How do you calculate the monthly recovery rate?

We calculate recoveries by taking the recovery amount reported (which typically includes all recoveries, including disposition proceeds, post-disposition proceeds, and any other reported recoveries) over the gross loss amount for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's recovery percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index.

We only allow a transaction to enter the index starting in its fourth month outstanding. During a transaction's first three months, unusually high or low recoveries are reported, leading to a spike in the composite figures.

How do you calculate the monthly 60-plus-day delinquency rate?

We calculate delinquencies by taking each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency amount over the ending pool balance for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the composite.

We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. During the transaction's first three months, zero or fewer delinquencies are reported, which dilutes the composite figures.

What is the Auto Loan Static Index (ALSI)?

Our ALSI monitors the credit performance of securitizations that were originated in the same year on a weighted average basis. The number of months displayed for each vintage is generally determined by the last month that all securitizations for that time period have a data point. We calculate the prime and subprime ALSI cumulative net losses (CNLs) by taking the weighted average of the CNLs of the transactions that were completed in the same time period (generally a year). Each transaction's CNL is weighted by its initial pool balance over the aggregate initial pool balance of all the transactions included in the index for that period. In the subprime ALSI, transactions from Byrider Finance LLC (doing business as CarNow Acceptance Corp.), Credit Acceptance Corp., DriveTime Automotive Group Inc., and America's Car-Mart are excluded because they do not have the typical indirect auto loan business model.

Which transactions are included in the prime, subprime, and modified subprime composites and indices?

For a list of the transactions included in our prime and subprime composites and indices, see tables 4 and 5 above and "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: June 2023 Performance," published Aug. 15, 2023.

Related Research

• Credit Union Auto Loan ABS Issuance Growth Continued in 2024, Buoyed By New and Repeat Issuers, Feb. 11, 2025.
• Expected Cumulative Loss Adjusted For Mercedes-Benz Auto Receivables Trust 2024-1 Following Annual Review, Jan. 22, 2025.
• 2025 U.S. And Canada Structured Finance Outlook, Dec. 13, 2024
• Lessons on U.S. Subprime Auto Loan ABS Performance, Aug. 20, 2024
• Electric Shock: How Engine Technology Affects Auto ABS Risk, July 10, 2024
• U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: June 2023 Performance, Aug. 15, 2023.

The analysts would like to thank Sophia Ahn for her contributions to the volume section of this report.

Primary Credit Analyst:	Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538; amy.martin@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:	Jennie P Lam, New York + 1 (212) 438 2524; jennie.lam@spglobal.com
	Steve D Martinez, New York + 1 (212) 438 2881; steve.martinez@spglobal.com
	Sanjay Narine, CFA, Toronto + 1 (416) 507 2548; sanjay.narine@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:	Siddhesh Pai, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai