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Global Credit Conditions Downside Scenario: Recession Risks Deepen

The potential for a prolonged period of rising inflation and low economic growth is increasing globally, with many factors weighing on already-waning economic prospects. Considering increasing risks and the potential for materialization, we have developed a downside scenario--with a roughly one-in-three likelihood of occurring--based on a consistent set of downside projections presented for key regional economies for the period 2022-2025.

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