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Economic Research: EMEA Insurance Outlook 2024: Navigating the way home

Insurers in Europe have a difficult legacy to overcome due to rapidly soaring interest rates in 2022 that left them with immense unrealized losses on their fixed income investments. We estimate that the pull to par for high quality fixed income investments might take a decade or more, based on our forecast of only gradually declining long-term yields in 2024-2026. We remain cautious on illiquid investments, real estate, private equity, and private debt, which life insurers added during the lower-for-longer yield environment. For insurers we rate, we do not foresee any forced selling of assets because of a hypothetical life insurance mass lapse, or massive natural catastrophe events. There is no “Insurance Run” in sight.

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