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Credit Conditions North America Q2 2024: Soft Landing, Lurking Risks

Overall: As the year progresses, credit conditions could brighten somewhat, especially if the U.S. economy settles into a soft landing and the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy in an orderly fashion. Risks: High financing costs and input-price pressures remain persistent risks. A prolonged period of elevated borrowing costs could make the burden of debt service and/or refinancing too heavy for borrowers in need of interest-rate relief. Ratings: The net outlook bias, indicating potential ratings trends, stayed relatively flat over the past quarter and was at negative 10.3% as of March 15. Telecom, health care, and consumer products still have the highest negative bias—with around 30% of issuers having a negative outlook or on CreditWatch with negative implications.

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