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Economic Research: Washington Week Spring Meetings: Macro Resilience; Geopolitical Fragility

My “Washington Week” involved alternating between events at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Institute of International Finance (IIF), and the World Economic Forum. This included both attending and presenting on panels covering macroeconomic developments, the future of the Bretton Woods institutions, geopolitics, longevity, and central banking. I also had the opportunity to network, catch up with some old friends and colleagues, and get a sense of what is moving the needle for both the macro forecast and research themes. This year’s Spring Meetings were held under the shadow of escalating geopolitical risks. Iran’s recent attack on Israel added to the list of armed conflicts, while U.S.-China tensions and global realignment more generally continued to simmer. In contrast, the message on economics was generally positive, reflecting ongoing U.S. outperformance and the bottoming of activity in Europe. All told, economic developments are still taking a backseat to geopolitics.

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