Economic and trade tensions will likely lower demand for oil in 2025, adding to the risk of oversupply. Despite their diversification efforts, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' economic growth remains highly correlated with oil prices. GCC companies will probably see contagion from a decline in oil prices and a global economic slowdown rather than from the tariffs themselves. We don't expect GCC companies to remain unaffected for long, but the timing and effects of the contagion will vary by sector.