In this week's summary of ratings views: We expect the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to rise to 1.75% and the European speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.6% by March 2026. U.S. policymakers’ focus on drug prices bring rising risks for pharma companies. Recent cyberattacks on retail highlight vulnerabilities for issuers. Also: cracks in consumer confidence could lead to tighter U.S. leisure spending, tariff effects on European structured finance appear likely to be limited, a peak in sustainable bond maturities appears manageable, and how causal AI could be transformative.