Tariff-related concerns continue to cloud the outlook for North American credit conditions, with the reconciliation bill working its way through Congress adding to uncertainty. U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict—and the fragility of a ceasefire—heightens the risk that tensions will escalate and disrupt the capital and global energy markets, and economic activity. The volatility that swept through financial markets in the first months of the Trump administration could return amid heightened geopolitical strife, the approaching end of U.S. tariff pauses, and the fate of the tax and spending bill. For now, spreads on corporate debt remain narrow—well off the highs reached in the aftermath of the White House’s April 2 announced tariffs.