Global credit conditions are likely to remain supportive in 2025—against a backdrop of region- and country-specific divergence and geopolitical uncertainty that threatens to reignite risk-aversion among investors and affect capital flows.
Companies have made good progress in pushing out maturities, which has eased near-term liquidity pressure on many lower-rated borrowers—buying them time if market volatility arises and/or investors become more risk-averse.
We forecast a decline in defaults, albeit at a slower pace than the rise. The lowest-rated borrowers continue to face the strains of still-elevated borrowing costs, the lingering effects of permanently higher prices on consumer purchasing power, and increasing protectionism that will weigh on global trade.
Any improvement in global credit conditions will be along a narrow path strewn with overlapping risks. Slowing economic activity, the prospect of resurgent inflation, and political polarization could lead to sustained bouts of market volatility.
Aligned with our Top Global Risks, we answer the pressing Questions That Matter for 2025 on the uncertainties that will shape the coming year, collected through our interactions with investors and other market participants.
S&P Global Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook 2025 builds on the collective insights from our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees (CCCs), which meet quarterly to review conditions in Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, Europe, and North America, cascading into our global coverage. At the CCCs, we evaluate the trends affecting economies, industries, and credit markets—to identify our base-case assumptions and rank the exogenous risks that underpin our credit ratings and inform potential rating changes across various asset classes.
