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Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2023 Annual Infrastructure Default And Rating Transition Study

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Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2023 Annual Infrastructure Default And Rating Transition Study

S&P Global Ratings' infrastructure default tally rose to nine in 2023, up from three in 2022 (see table 1). The default rate rose to 0.6% in 2023, up from 0.2% in 2022. Investment-grade defaults remain rare, with none in 2023 for the third year in a row and the 14th of the last 15 years. Investment-grade defaults have averaged 0.6 per year since 1981, compared to three speculative-grade defaults per year. The speculative-grade default rate rose to 2.5% in 2023, up from 0.8% in 2022.

Chart 1

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Historically, speculative-grade issues have defaulted more frequently than investment-grade issuers, reflected in annual average default rates of 1.9% and 0.1%, respectively. 2001 was one major outlier, when there were 10 investment-grade defaults compared to only one speculative-grade default, because of the failure of Enron Corp. and challenges in the unregulated utilities sector.

Table 1

All infrastructure default summary
Year Total defaults* Rated defaults Investment-grade defaults Speculative-grade defaults Default rate (%) Investment-grade default rate (%) Speculative-grade default rate (%)
1981 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1982 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1983 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1984 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1985 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1986 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1987 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1988 5 5 0 5 1.63 0.00 11.36
1989 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1990 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1991 3 3 2 1 1.03 0.78 2.94
1992 5 5 0 5 1.61 0.00 12.82
1993 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1994 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1995 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1996 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1997 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1998 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1999 1 1 0 1 0.17 0.00 1.27
2000 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2001 12 11 10 1 1.48 1.54 1.04
2002 20 19 7 12 2.28 0.97 10.43
2003 17 13 1 12 1.58 0.15 7.14
2004 2 2 0 2 0.21 0.00 1.03
2005 10 10 2 8 1.02 0.26 3.90
2006 1 1 1 0 0.10 0.12 0.00
2007 2 2 0 2 0.19 0.00 0.90
2008 4 4 1 3 0.36 0.12 1.27
2009 7 7 0 7 0.62 0.00 2.95
2010 5 5 0 5 0.44 0.00 1.91
2011 8 7 0 7 0.59 0.00 2.52
2012 8 8 0 8 0.67 0.00 2.87
2013 6 6 0 6 0.49 0.00 2.15
2014 7 7 0 7 0.53 0.00 2.30
2015 1 1 0 1 0.07 0.00 0.30
2016 6 6 0 6 0.42 0.00 1.71
2017 7 5 0 5 0.34 0.00 1.38
2018 6 5 0 5 0.34 0.00 1.37
2019 3 3 2 1 0.20 0.18 0.28
2020 10 9 0 9 0.61 0.00 2.43
2021 1 1 0 1 0.07 0.00 0.26
2022 3 3 0 3 0.21 0.00 0.82
2023 9 8 0 8 0.60 0.00 2.46
*Includes defaults that were observed in the same year as the initial rating. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Upgrades in 2023 rose to 95 (52 investment-grade and 43 speculative-grade) from 70 (21 investment-grade and 49 speculative-grade) in 2022, while downgrades rose very slightly to 94 (47 investment-grade and 47 speculative-grade) from 91 (55 investment-grade and 36 speculative-grade, see chart 2). These trends reflect largely unchanged credit quality.

Chart 2

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In 2023, transportation saw the most upgrades with 27, followed by oil and gas with 25. Meanwhile, utilities led downgrades with 27, followed by power with 21 (see chart 3).

Chart 3

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The infrastructure sector peaked at 1,488 ratings in 2018, from a low of 290 in 1990 (see chart 4). Most ratings are investment-grade, at 74% at the start of 2023, down from 88% at the start of 2001.

As expected, the lowest rating category, 'CCC/C', usually sees the most proportionate default activity. At the start of 2023, there were 26 infrastructure entities rated 'CCC/C' by S&P Global Ratings, lower than the 33 at the start of 2022. Such a small population of ratings can skew results slightly.

The largest sector in terms of infrastructure ratings has always been utilities, with oil and gas becoming the second-largest sector in 2011 (see chart 5). Social infrastructure has grown rapidly to almost 100 ratings at the start of 2023, from 28 in 2007. Infrastructure issues can mature, similarly to structured finance in some respects, so populations can fluctuate over time.

Chart 4

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Chart 5

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This study covers infrastructure ratings in utilities, oil and gas (mostly midstream issuers), transportation, power, social infrastructure, and other industries covered under our corporate and project finance methodologies. The study also includes a small number of infrastructure issues rated under U.S. public finance and international public finance methodologies.

Part of our analysis on issue ratings is a high frequency of transitions to NR (not rated); issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This stands in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

Regional Trends

The U.S. and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) have the most infrastructure ratings by region (see chart 6) and the most speculative-grade ratings, with 147 and 81, respectively. Asia-Pacific has the highest share of investment-grade ratings at 84% and Latin America has the lowest at 47%.

Chart 6

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Of the 162 public infrastructure issue defaults since 1981, 72% have been from issuers based in the U.S. region (which includes tax havens Bermuda and the Cayman Islands). Defaults outside the U.S. have exceeded U.S. defaults just five times annually in that time period. The first occurred in 2002, when the Argentine financial crisis led to 10 defaults. The others were in 2004 and 2006-2008, when there were no U.S. defaults and modest default activity outside the U.S.

Subsector Default Trends

By subsector, utilities account for the most rated infrastructure defaults since 1981 (47%), followed by power (22%) and other (17%, see chart 7). Examining the rating distribution by subsector over time (see chart 5), power and other ("other" as a category can be confidential ratings or those that are otherwise not clearly placed) defaults appear overrepresented--power accounts for 8% and other for 9% of all historical infrastructure issue defaults captured in this study.

In 2023, there were seven power-related defaults and one each for oil and gas and utilities. (One power-related issuer defaulted, was rerated, and defaulted again in 2023.)

Chart 7

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Overall default rates have been consistently low since 2015. Before that, there were periods of credit stress, especially in 2001 and 2009-2014 (see chart 8).

Chart 8

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We subdivide infrastructure ratings into corporate issues and project finance issues. There are far more corporate issues, comprising all utilities and most oil and gas. Project finance includes all social projects as well as most power issues (see chart 9).

Chart 9

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Historical Default Cycles

In general, infrastructure's relative peak default rates aligned with those of nonfinancial corporates during the 2001 recession. However, the sector made it through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed, with a peak default rate under 1%, compared with 6% for nonfinancial corporates (see chart 10).

On a trailing-12-month basis, the overall infrastructure default rate was higher than the nonfinancial default rate only from December 2005 through November 2006. This was largely because of the Dec. 21, 2005, bankruptcy filing of Calpine Corp. (a corporate infrastructure power developer and energy merchant company), which covered five defaulting instruments in our dataset.

The lower infrastructure default rate over time reflects, in part, a consistently lower proportion of issues rated in the 'B' and 'CCC/C' categories compared with nonfinancial corporates.

Chart 10

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Cumulative default rates are a historical summary of rating performance. For example, cumulative default rates for the power subsegment reflect the increased default rate amid the energy crisis in the early 2000s. Since the end of that period, many ratings have been repositioned, and any analytical lessons have been incorporated into our power ratings.

The distribution of ratings within a rating category influences the weighted averages (e.g., within the broader 'BBB' rating category, the share of 'BBB-' versus 'BBB' versus 'BBB+'; see tables 2-4). Also, the sample sizes of infrastructure subsegments vary.

Table 2

Cumulative default rates, infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate (1981-2023)
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 5 10 15
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05
A 0.08 0.47 0.72 0.83
BBB 0.12 1.05 1.92 2.60
BB 0.25 2.93 4.37 4.75
B 1.77 7.79 10.40 10.58
CCC/C 13.82 27.81 30.28 30.28
Investment-grade 0.09 0.72 1.25 1.62
Speculative-grade 1.83 6.47 8.36 8.65
All rated 0.45 1.87 2.66 3.02
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.37
AA 0.00 0.09 0.31 0.54
A 0.03 0.28 1.03 1.70
BBB 0.12 1.31 2.95 4.07
BB 0.57 6.35 11.70 14.66
B 3.06 16.54 23.19 26.43
CCC/C 27.11 49.01 52.97 54.91
Investment-grade 0.07 0.77 1.87 2.66
Speculative-grade 3.75 14.75 20.68 23.69
All rated 1.95 7.78 11.15 12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 3

Cumulative default rates, corporate infrastructure and project finance (1981-2023)
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 5 10 15
Utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06
A 0.10 0.52 0.75 0.79
BBB 0.16 1.03 1.76 2.32
BB 0.06 2.17 2.75 2.95
B 2.22 9.79 10.48 10.48
CCC/C 18.39 34.57 39.08 39.08
Investment-grade 0.12 0.69 1.12 1.39
Speculative-grade 2.34 7.08 8.06 8.19
All rated 0.38 1.44 1.94 2.19
Corporate infrastructure ex-utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.06 0.33 0.41 0.65
BBB 0.09 1.29 3.07 4.49
BB 0.40 2.44 3.58 3.58
B 1.07 6.20 9.27 9.77
CCC/C 10.88 21.51 23.19 23.19
Investment-grade 0.06 0.77 1.68 2.40
Speculative-grade 1.39 5.22 7.20 7.41
All rated 0.46 2.09 3.29 3.90
Project finance
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.41 1.21 1.85
BBB 0.06 0.87 1.26 1.71
BB 0.31 4.42 7.35 8.33
B 2.50 8.60 12.50 12.50
CCC/C 11.18 25.72 25.72 25.72
Investment-grade 0.05 0.75 1.21 1.68
Speculative-grade 1.84 7.40 10.41 11.01
All rated 0.66 3.01 4.34 4.85
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 4

Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2023) (%)
-- Time horizon (years) --
All infrastructure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Investment-grade 0.09 0.26 0.42 0.58 0.72 0.84 0.95 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.34 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.62
Speculative-grade 1.83 3.32 4.56 5.68 6.47 7.06 7.49 7.86 8.19 8.36 8.45 8.54 8.57 8.61 8.65
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.26 1.61 1.87 2.09 2.26 2.43 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.84 2.90 2.96 3.02
Project finance
Investment-grade 0.05 0.20 0.37 0.57 0.75 0.85 0.96 1.04 1.08 1.21 1.41 1.57 1.68 1.68 1.68
Speculative-grade 1.84 3.44 4.98 6.27 7.40 8.30 8.92 9.58 10.15 10.41 10.51 10.61 10.73 10.86 11.01
All rated 0.66 1.31 1.93 2.51 3.01 3.38 3.67 3.94 4.16 4.34 4.50 4.64 4.76 4.80 4.85
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilities
Investment-grade 0.06 0.23 0.42 0.61 0.77 0.96 1.14 1.34 1.50 1.68 1.81 1.95 2.10 2.26 2.40
Speculative-grade 1.39 2.62 3.58 4.48 5.22 5.81 6.29 6.63 6.94 7.20 7.30 7.41 7.41 7.41 7.41
All rated 0.46 0.95 1.37 1.76 2.09 2.39 2.66 2.90 3.10 3.29 3.41 3.55 3.66 3.79 3.90
Utilities
Investment-grade 0.12 0.28 0.43 0.57 0.69 0.79 0.89 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.34 1.39
Speculative-grade 2.34 4.04 5.33 6.53 7.08 7.44 7.66 7.82 8.00 8.06 8.13 8.19 8.19 8.19 8.19
All rated 0.38 0.72 1.01 1.27 1.44 1.57 1.69 1.80 1.87 1.94 2.00 2.06 2.10 2.14 2.19
Oil and gas
Investment-grade 0.03 0.10 0.21 0.32 0.40 0.48 0.57 0.67 0.72 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77
Speculative-grade 0.75 1.48 2.09 2.62 3.11 3.50 3.67 3.76 3.87 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99
All rated 0.31 0.62 0.92 1.18 1.40 1.59 1.71 1.81 1.87 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Power
Investment-grade 0.20 0.85 1.54 2.19 2.72 3.38 4.00 4.66 5.25 5.89 6.46 7.08 7.76 8.52 9.16
Speculative-grade 2.16 4.08 5.51 6.97 8.30 9.46 10.29 10.97 11.45 11.82 12.04 12.28 12.28 12.28 12.28
All rated 1.17 2.45 3.50 4.54 5.46 6.35 7.06 7.73 8.27 8.80 9.23 9.70 10.12 10.60 11.01
Transportation
Investment-grade 0.00 0.09 0.20 0.31 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Speculative-grade 1.35 2.40 3.34 3.87 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16
All rated 0.25 0.52 0.78 0.96 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
Social infrastructure
Investment-grade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46
Speculative-grade 0.47 0.98 1.57 2.22 2.95 3.77 4.68 5.75 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
All rated 0.07 0.15 0.23 0.32 0.42 0.53 0.65 0.79 0.95 1.13 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Other
Investment-grade 0.08 0.21 0.34 0.53 0.72 0.88 1.04 1.15 1.21 1.33 1.52 1.73 1.87 1.87 1.87
Speculative-grade 2.94 5.30 7.69 9.60 11.03 12.09 13.03 13.98 14.81 15.23 15.37 15.52 15.68 15.85 16.04
All rated 0.78 1.48 2.20 2.85 3.38 3.79 4.17 4.53 4.82 5.04 5.22 5.40 5.55 5.60 5.66
Nonfinancial corporate
Investment-grade 0.07 0.19 0.34 0.54 0.77 1.00 1.23 1.44 1.66 1.87 2.06 2.22 2.36 2.50 2.66
Speculative-grade 3.75 7.26 10.28 12.73 14.75 16.37 17.70 18.81 19.79 20.68 21.41 22.04 22.64 23.17 23.69
All rated 1.95 3.78 5.37 6.68 7.78 8.69 9.44 10.07 10.63 11.15 11.58 11.94 12.28 12.58 12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Among defaulting issues, there is generally a positive correlation between initial ratings and time to default--meaning higher initial ratings often have longer times to default (see chart 11). The shortest time to default in our dataset was for a GenOn Energy Inc. issue, which defaulted in June 2017, just 26 days after we initially rated it 'CCC+'. Conversely, the longest time to default was for a Public Service Co. of New Hampshire issue, which defaulted in January 1988, nearly 26 years after receiving an initial rating of 'A'.

Chart 11

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We define the marginal default rate as the percentage of rated projects that default within a given number of years. On average, the marginal default rate for infrastructure issues peaks in year one and then steadily declines (see table 5).

Speculative-grade ratings tend to have high marginal default rates in earlier years before declining, while investment-grade ratings tend to have persistently low marginal default rates. While infrastructure marginal default rates tend to be lower, the trends in marginal default rates are similar for nonfinancial corporates and consistent with results found in our global corporate default study.

Table 5

Marginal default rates: All infrastructure and nonfinancial corporate
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05
BBB 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.14 0.16
BB 0.25 0.46 0.796 0.771 0.68 0.48 0.31 0.34 0.24 0.13
B 1.77 2.11 1.54 1.55 1.08 0.90 0.56 0.46 0.58 0.36
CCC/C 13.82 8.07 4.59 3.31 1.21 0.96 1.37 0.74 0.40 0.00
Investment-grade 0.09 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.08 0.10
Speculative-grade 1.83 1.52 1.28 1.17 0.84 0.64 0.45 0.40 0.36 0.19
All rated 0.45 0.44 0.38 0.35 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.11
Nonfinancial corporate
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.07
AA 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.05
A 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16
BBB 0.12 0.21 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.38 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31
BB 0.57 1.32 1.552 1.569 1.50 1.39 1.24 1.18 1.07 0.96
B 3.06 4.34 4.06 3.45 2.84 2.32 1.87 1.48 1.32 1.24
CCC/C 27.11 14.52 9.26 5.72 4.35 2.05 2.13 1.29 1.31 1.23
Investment-grade 0.07 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21
Speculative-grade 3.75 3.65 3.25 2.73 2.31 1.90 1.60 1.34 1.20 1.11
All rated 1.95 1.87 1.65 1.39 1.18 0.98 0.82 0.70 0.63 0.58
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Historical Rating Action Cycles

As in most sectors, historical rating actions in infrastructure are more often negative than positive (see chart 12). Downgrades outnumbered upgrades 3,687 to 2,746 from 1981 through 2023. By year, downgrades exceeded upgrades in 14 of those 43 years (see table 6).

Chart 12

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Table 6

Infrastructure rating movement total (1981-2023)
Upgrades Downgrades Difference Downgrades/upgrades
Power 220 414 -194 1.88
Transportation 186 278 -92 1.49
Utilities 1600 1992 -392 1.25
Oil and gas 477 525 -48 1.10
Social infrastructure 71 110 -39 1.55
Other 192 368 -176 1.92
Total 2746 3687 -941 1.34
Does not include defaults. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

The number of annual downgrades peaked in 2020 during the pandemic-related global recession at 238--slightly more than the previous high of 214 in 2002.

Infrastructure downgrades accelerated in the early 2000s amid a U.S. recession and as utilities experienced credit stress during a period of deregulation in the U.S. From 2000-2004, infrastructure downgrades plus defaults totaled 747, compared with 229 upgrades.

Infrastructure upgrades peaked in 2007 at 155. The second-highest total was 141 upgrades in 2017. The period with the highest number of upgrades minus downgrades was 2006-2008. This followed the period with the lowest number of upgrades minus downgrades, 1998-2005.

Table 7

Project finance and corporate infrastructure rating movement
--Upgrades-- --Downgrades-- --Defaults--
Number Avg. annual (%) Number Avg. annual (%) Number Avg. annual (%)
Utilities 1,600 8.15 1,992 10.15 74 0.38
Project finance 407 6.55 694 11.17 41 0.66
Corporate infrastructure ex-utilties 739 8.13 1,001 11.01 42 0.46
All infrastructure 2,746 7.86 3,687 10.55 157 0.45
Avg.--Average. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Rating Transitions

Transition tables detail ratings changes over time. Each cell in the table represents the weighted average percentage of ratings that maintain a rating or transition to a different rating during a given time horizon. The rows indicate the rating at the start of the period, and the columns show how those ratings are distributed at the end of the period (see table 8).

The highest values in the transition matrix are along the diagonal, indicating that a high proportion of these issue ratings do not change during a given period. The proportion of ratings that have transitioned higher are to the left of the diagonal, and the proportion of ratings that have transitioned lower are to the right.

The 'A' category is typically the most stable, while the 'AA' category is generally the most likely to transition to a lower rating category (excluding default). The smaller sample sizes of issues in the 'AAA' and 'AA' categories, compared with the 'A' category, contributes to this to some extent.

We withdraw a large percentage of ratings (not rated, or NR) over time (see table 8). The high frequency of issue ratings withdrawn for redemption, maturity, or any other reason makes longer time horizons of up to 20 years impractical for infrastructure.

The high frequency of transitions to NR is a result of our analysis of issue ratings; issues tend to be paid off and, thus, move to not rated. This is in contrast to our nonfinancial corporate ratings, which are issuer credit ratings and typically remain active much longer than ratings on underlying issues.

The high percentage of infrastructure ratings that we have withdrawn, as indicated in the NR column, obscures the data and our conclusions to some extent. For example, after five years, we've withdrawn over 38% of infrastructure issue ratings in the 'BBB' category, compared with just over 22% of nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings in the same category (see table 9).

There is no indication of whether the withdrawn ratings would have remained in the same category, moved higher, or moved lower. The result is less precise comparisons between infrastructure issue ratings and nonfinancial corporate issuer ratings.

Table 8

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 84.59 6.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.65
AA 0.39 83.69 8.05 0.53 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.00 7.13
A 0.03 0.99 85.78 5.43 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.08 7.46
BBB 0.00 0.01 2.44 85.73 2.59 0.22 0.24 0.12 8.64
BB 0.00 0.00 0.11 6.53 72.96 6.87 0.94 0.25 12.33
B 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.91 8.65 67.80 6.88 1.77 13.81
CCC/C 0.51 0.00 0.51 0.00 2.22 10.75 54.78 13.82 17.41
Three years
AAA 58.14 14.15 1.74 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.42
AA 0.84 59.41 16.56 2.01 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.73
A 0.06 2.12 63.64 11.59 0.59 0.22 0.09 0.27 21.43
BBB 0.01 0.04 5.83 63.42 4.29 1.10 0.60 0.65 24.07
BB 0.03 0.00 0.20 12.44 40.61 8.82 2.17 1.50 34.23
B 0.10 0.00 0.30 3.32 14.58 30.79 7.98 5.11 37.83
CCC/C 0.38 0.00 0.00 1.14 3.42 11.01 16.51 25.05 42.50
Five years
AAA 37.72 15.77 1.80 4.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.92
AA 0.92 41.60 19.36 3.11 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.39
A 0.09 2.39 48.08 13.43 0.73 0.31 0.13 0.51 34.33
BBB 0.02 0.05 7.19 47.21 4.38 1.39 0.72 1.14 37.89
BB 0.06 0.00 0.46 13.53 23.66 5.96 1.94 2.95 51.45
B 0.00 0.00 0.39 4.70 12.30 13.30 4.36 7.43 57.52
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.92 1.50 7.91 5.13 30.34 53.21
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 9

Nonfinancial corporate average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 87.18 8.24 0.85 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.59
AA 0.51 87.27 7.56 0.64 0.09 0.11 0.00 0.00 3.82
A 0.03 1.11 88.48 6.08 0.31 0.15 0.02 0.03 3.79
BBB 0.00 0.04 2.68 87.74 3.46 0.43 0.09 0.12 5.44
BB 0.01 0.01 0.09 4.24 78.65 6.85 0.50 0.57 9.08
B 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.12 4.27 74.81 5.05 3.06 12.61
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.15 0.35 13.00 44.62 27.11 14.68
Three years
AAA 66.69 19.21 3.54 0.28 0.35 0.07 0.00 0.00 9.85
AA 1.17 66.82 18.12 2.33 0.52 0.28 0.01 0.03 10.72
A 0.05 2.62 69.82 14.43 1.20 0.52 0.07 0.11 11.19
BBB 0.01 0.12 6.65 68.88 7.14 1.55 0.23 0.61 14.81
BB 0.01 0.03 0.34 9.61 50.12 11.82 1.18 3.47 23.40
B 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.51 8.40 42.11 5.57 11.31 31.94
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.43 1.36 15.36 10.34 43.64 28.78
Five years
AAA 52.82 24.55 5.50 1.14 0.57 0.07 0.00 0.00 15.35
AA 1.46 50.93 24.65 4.27 0.79 0.48 0.03 0.09 17.30
A 0.04 3.38 56.53 18.95 2.00 0.83 0.11 0.29 17.85
BBB 0.01 0.18 8.70 56.58 8.17 2.17 0.31 1.39 22.49
BB 0.01 0.04 0.67 11.39 35.01 11.79 1.25 6.59 33.24
B 0.01 0.01 0.15 1.04 8.61 25.29 3.50 17.51 43.87
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.64 2.33 10.76 2.52 49.95 33.74
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 10

Infrastructure average transition rates (1981-2023) (%)
Rating AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC C D NR
One year
AAA 84.59 4.51 2.07 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.65
AA+ 3.06 73.89 6.94 5.00 0.28 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.28
AA 0.00 2.66 79.33 5.81 3.25 1.18 0.39 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.69
AA- 0.00 0.00 3.81 76.45 9.97 1.87 0.35 0.07 0.62 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.65
A+ 0.06 0.00 0.17 4.66 71.70 10.97 2.61 1.08 0.06 0.17 0.06 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 8.18
A 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.21 4.31 77.20 7.51 2.27 0.75 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.12 7.18
A- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.44 4.32 78.85 7.03 1.23 0.39 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.07 7.39
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.77 5.45 75.09 8.45 0.95 0.18 0.18 0.02 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.16 8.36
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.11 1.13 6.46 75.56 6.36 0.82 0.36 0.41 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.09 8.45
BBB- 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.25 1.05 7.46 75.26 3.79 1.30 0.71 0.06 0.15 0.08 0.13 0.10 0.02 0.27 0.02 0.13 9.12
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 2.37 10.62 62.21 6.12 3.37 1.56 1.06 0.06 0.00 0.37 0.06 0.00 0.06 0.00 11.62
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.42 2.26 9.41 63.01 6.29 2.40 2.33 0.71 0.28 0.14 0.07 0.21 0.00 0.64 11.67
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.22 2.22 2.82 7.64 57.97 9.04 2.45 1.85 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.30 0.07 0.15 13.86
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.41 0.93 1.45 1.65 10.75 52.84 10.86 4.14 1.34 0.62 0.52 0.31 0.10 0.83 12.93
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.28 0.55 0.55 1.53 4.16 12.90 45.35 11.65 3.74 1.53 0.14 0.28 0.14 1.66 15.26
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.77 1.35 2.50 14.04 48.27 10.58 2.88 2.12 0.19 0.00 3.65 13.46
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.82 1.64 2.87 13.11 43.44 3.69 8.61 1.64 0.82 4.51 18.03
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 1.40 0.00 2.80 5.59 4.90 37.76 13.29 6.99 0.70 9.79 15.38
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.41 0.00 0.00 3.41 2.27 12.50 25.00 12.50 3.41 18.18 19.32
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.23 1.23 1.23 2.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.70 0.00 29.63 2.47 39.51 16.05
C 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.67 0.00 3.33 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 30.00 26.67 20.00
Three years
AAA 58.14 9.50 4.26 0.39 1.74 0.00 0.00 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.42
AA+ 4.66 41.40 10.79 10.79 2.33 0.87 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.28
AA 0.61 4.39 50.15 11.54 4.09 4.70 2.66 1.12 0.20 0.51 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.90
AA- 0.07 0.36 6.32 47.23 16.12 4.19 2.98 0.57 1.56 0.36 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.17
A+ 0.06 0.00 1.29 7.08 38.55 17.18 6.83 2.65 1.35 0.31 0.49 0.31 0.00 0.06 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 23.46
A 0.13 0.00 0.29 1.22 8.41 46.61 14.19 5.26 2.09 0.48 0.10 0.29 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.35 20.29
A- 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.07 1.06 8.87 50.00 12.97 3.41 0.78 0.47 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.02 0.24 21.49
BBB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 2.04 11.21 43.88 13.65 3.44 0.50 0.23 0.18 0.33 0.18 0.20 0.28 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.05 0.63 22.84
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.53 3.40 11.95 45.19 10.62 1.56 0.92 0.78 0.43 0.23 0.25 0.22 0.08 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.49 23.11
BBB- 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.20 0.68 3.81 13.21 43.59 4.81 2.15 1.56 0.66 0.54 0.45 0.25 0.43 0.14 0.16 0.02 0.86 26.29
BB+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.07 0.89 4.93 14.87 27.83 8.70 4.25 3.02 1.23 0.69 0.82 0.34 0.48 0.27 0.27 0.41 30.77
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.31 1.40 6.84 10.49 27.89 8.00 3.26 2.80 1.79 0.31 0.39 0.31 0.39 0.00 1.63 33.88
BB- 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.42 1.19 4.84 4.33 7.22 22.51 7.56 3.65 3.48 1.02 0.93 0.68 0.25 0.08 2.72 38.91
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.11 1.68 2.35 4.14 4.14 10.75 18.37 9.41 5.15 2.80 1.23 1.12 0.56 0.22 3.58 34.15
B 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15 1.08 2.00 2.46 3.07 8.14 8.29 12.90 7.68 3.38 1.69 0.77 0.61 0.00 4.76 42.55
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.21 0.42 1.27 0.63 3.17 3.59 4.23 9.94 15.22 7.61 1.69 3.81 0.63 0.21 8.46 38.27
CCC+ 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.97 3.38 0.48 4.83 9.18 10.63 0.97 2.42 0.00 0.48 12.08 53.14
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.75 0.00 0.75 3.01 0.75 4.51 7.52 0.75 8.27 6.02 8.27 2.26 25.56 30.83
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 3.90 1.30 3.90 10.39 5.19 2.60 22.08 45.45
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 1.25 0.00 2.50 0.00 1.25 3.75 0.00 2.50 0.00 1.25 1.25 52.50 31.25
C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.33 46.67 43.33
Five years
AAA 37.72 9.18 4.39 2.20 1.80 0.00 0.00 3.19 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.92
AA+ 3.45 24.45 6.90 13.17 4.70 1.57 1.57 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.57
AA 0.96 3.74 31.41 11.97 4.70 5.98 4.38 1.07 0.96 0.85 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.80
AA- 0.30 0.15 5.25 31.71 14.63 5.62 4.80 2.14 1.26 0.44 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33
A+ 0.13 0.20 1.95 5.57 21.14 15.57 10.07 3.69 2.01 0.40 0.34 0.47 0.07 0.13 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 37.45
A 0.14 0.00 0.59 1.70 8.86 30.38 13.90 6.57 2.92 0.63 0.35 0.35 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.10 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.66 32.60
A- 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.29 1.59 9.96 33.23 13.02 4.44 1.31 0.55 0.05 0.05 0.21 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.08 0.03 0.47 34.41
BBB+ 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 2.99 12.10 27.93 12.90 3.72 0.79 0.23 0.54 0.28 0.42 0.23 0.20 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 36.09
BBB 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.63 4.82 12.62 28.75 10.40 1.53 1.12 0.65 0.45 0.39 0.45 0.22 0.11 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.89 36.42
BBB- 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.05 0.61 0.91 5.47 12.90 25.97 3.88 2.26 1.91 0.86 0.54 0.49 0.52 0.27 0.42 0.20 0.00 1.47 41.13
BB+ 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.46 0.85 7.72 12.11 14.51 5.32 5.17 2.39 1.00 0.69 0.54 0.69 0.23 0.08 0.08 2.55 45.14
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 1.04 2.86 8.06 7.54 13.95 5.81 2.69 1.13 1.73 0.09 0.26 0.26 0.43 0.00 2.69 51.30
BB- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.30 1.29 0.99 3.87 4.46 3.97 9.33 4.46 2.08 2.28 1.39 0.79 0.40 0.40 0.40 3.77 59.72
B+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.26 0.26 1.40 4.34 4.21 4.60 6.64 7.66 4.21 4.21 1.02 0.38 0.51 0.38 0.38 5.24 54.15
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.34 0.17 2.37 2.37 2.54 4.06 4.40 3.38 3.89 3.72 1.18 0.51 1.52 0.00 0.17 7.28 61.93
B- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.24 0.48 1.20 1.69 2.89 3.61 1.45 4.82 5.06 5.30 0.96 2.17 0.24 0.24 11.81 57.59
CCC+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 5.39 5.39 1.80 0.60 0.00 1.20 0.00 15.57 67.07
CCC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 1.60 4.00 4.00 0.80 1.60 2.40 3.20 0.00 31.20 46.40
CCC- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.29 2.86 1.43 2.86 1.43 0.00 30.00 55.71
CC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 0.00 1.28 3.85 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.85 34.62
C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 46.43
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Focusing on the 'BBB' category, which is generally the largest infrastructure rating category, allows for comparison among infrastructure subsectors (see table 11). Social infrastructure ratings have historically been the most likely to remain in the 'BBB' category across one-year, three-year, and five-year time horizons--in part due to the greater revenue stability conferred by availability payments, which are more common in this subsector.

Table 11

'BBB' category transition rates by subsector (1981-2023)
--% transition--
Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR Higher Lower Total
One year
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 0.97 87.48 2.92 0.18 0.00 0.00 8.45 0.97 3.10 4.07
Utilities 0.00 0.00 3.41 84.59 2.04 0.11 0.24 0.16 9.45 3.41 2.55 5.96
Power 0.00 0.00 0.74 88.48 3.86 0.52 0.52 0.22 5.65 0.74 5.13 5.87
social 0.00 0.26 1.80 90.76 3.21 0.39 0.13 0.00 3.47 2.05 3.72 5.78
Transportation 0.00 0.00 1.94 87.41 2.58 0.40 0.40 0.00 7.26 1.94 3.39 5.33
Other 0.00 0.00 0.83 80.76 4.60 0.59 0.24 0.24 12.75 0.83 5.67 6.49
Three years
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 1.80 69.69 5.36 1.41 0.15 0.15 21.44 1.80 7.07 8.87
Utilities 0.00 0.00 8.20 61.02 3.10 0.59 0.40 0.69 26.00 8.20 4.78 12.98
Power 0.00 0.00 1.09 69.70 6.01 3.01 1.00 1.75 17.45 1.09 11.77 12.85
social 0.00 0.72 4.93 74.35 8.26 1.01 0.43 0.00 10.29 5.65 9.71 15.36
Transportation 0.00 0.00 5.20 64.68 5.58 0.65 1.12 0.37 22.40 5.20 7.71 12.92
Other 0.12 0.00 2.10 50.00 5.20 2.97 2.48 0.87 36.26 2.23 11.51 13.74
Five years
Oil and gas 0.00 0.00 2.32 56.91 5.58 2.32 0.61 0.28 31.99 2.32 8.78 11.10
Utilities 0.00 0.00 9.95 44.26 2.83 0.61 0.51 1.11 40.73 9.95 5.05 15.00
Power 0.00 0.00 0.85 54.69 6.92 3.79 1.42 3.32 29.00 0.85 15.45 16.30
social 0.00 1.02 7.45 62.61 11.68 1.18 0.68 0.00 15.40 8.46 13.54 22.00
Transportation 0.00 0.00 6.60 46.75 6.38 2.20 0.55 0.88 36.63 6.60 10.01 16.61
Other 0.39 0.00 2.45 30.24 4.38 2.32 2.19 1.67 56.37 2.83 10.55 13.38
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Gini Coefficients

The Gini coefficient--a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--is a measure of the relative ability of ratings to differentiate default risk. Infrastructure Lorenz curves vary in their similarity to ideal curves, and Gini coefficients fall within a wide range. Over one-year, three-year, and five-year horizons, the coefficients for infrastructure as a whole--at 78%, 69%, and 63%, respectively--show a strong relationship between lower ratings and the propensity to default (see table 12).

Table 12

All infrastructure Gini coefficients
One year 78.06
Three years 68.67
Five years 63.26
Three year
Social infrastructure 99.75
Transportation 82.75
Utilities 64.62
Power 46.25
Oil and gas 66.28
Other 79.08
Canada 99.53
Asia-Pacific 64.42
U.S. and tax havens 63.63
EMEA 65.98
Latin America 62.00
EMEA--Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

However, the relationship varies across infrastructure subsectors. To compare, we use a three-year horizon for the Gini coefficient because it is the longest period in which a sizable number of issues remain outstanding (either prior to redemption or any other reason for rating withdrawals).

Social infrastructure has the highest three-year Gini coefficient at nearly 99.8%--extremely high. The transportation subsector has a high coefficient of 83% and the other subsector has one of 79%. The utilities and oil and gas subsectors have moderately high coefficients at 65% and 66%, respectively. Meanwhile, the power subsector has a low coefficient of 46%--indicating a historically high frequency of defaults among higher-rated issues.

While the differences are not as extreme, the coefficients also vary across regions. Canada has an extremely high coefficient at nearly 100%. Meanwhile, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, the U.S. and tax havens, and Latin America each have moderately high coefficients at 66%, 64%, 64%, and 62%, respectively.

Points along the Lorenz curve represent different ratings, starting with issues in the 'CCC/C' category on the far left of the x-axis (see chart 13). The first point indicates about 33% of transitions to default were from issues rated 'CCC/C'.

At higher ratings, the number of defaults generally decreases, yielding points that continue to climb as one moves right along the rating scale. The Lorenz curve generally turns sharply to the right at the investment-grade ratings because of the low proportion of defaults from investment-grade issues.

Chart 13

image

Table 13

Infrastructure three-year Lorenz curve values
Cumulative proportion of defaults (%) Cumulative proportion of ratings (%)
AAA 100.00 100.00
AA+ 100.00 98.40
AA 100.00 97.33
AA- 100.00 94.29
A+ 100.00 89.91
A 99.26 84.87
A- 96.55 75.19
BBB+ 94.09 62.06
BBB 87.93 49.69
BBB- 81.77 33.80
BB+ 72.41 20.09
BB 70.94 15.56
BB- 65.76 11.56
B+ 57.88 7.90
B 50.00 5.13
B- 42.36 3.11
CCC/C 32.51 1.64
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Appendix I: Definitions And Methodology

Infrastructure investment is broadly defined as investment exposure (debt or equity) to real assets vital to a country's economic development and prosperity that provide essential services for the orderly operations of an economy, such as transportation networks, health and education facilities, communication networks, and water and energy distribution systems. Key risks are in design, permitting, construction, operations, volume, and maintenance, with debt repaid predominantly by cash generated from the assets themselves.

Characteristics of infrastructure entities vary, and the variety of risks managed by infrastructure investments is broad (such as greenfield/brownfield, contracted/regulated/merchant, and availability/demand risk). Characteristics sought by investors in infrastructure include longevity, strong competitive advantages, high barriers to entry and monopolistic characteristics, low volatility, differentiation between return and volatility, and inflation-linked or predictable cash flow.

Our fourth annual infrastructure default and rating transition study continues the analysis of the inaugural study and expands on and supersedes project finance studies we've published in previous years. The data encompasses project finance ratings from past reports and adds ratings from other segments within infrastructure. This report presents a broader perspective and larger dataset than its predecessors, allowing for more conclusions and increasing the robustness of the findings while enabling comparisons between infrastructure issuer types and subsectors.

Our long-term infrastructure default and rating transition study uses long-term ratings on individual project finance debt issues. For projects with multiple tranches of debt, we used a single rating for all pari passu tranches to mitigate the risk of overweighting such projects in the sample set. For projects with senior and subordinated debt with different ratings, we counted each class separately and collapsed multiple tranches of pari passu debt into a single rating.

An infrastructure rating reflects S&P Global Ratings' opinion of the obligor's ability and willingness to meet its financial commitments on time, and it generally indicates our opinion of the likelihood of default regarding the specific rated issuance. Unlike issuer credit ratings, project finance ratings consider the value of collateral and recovery in determining the rating.

We analyzed the rating histories of corporate infrastructure and project finance credits that S&P Global Ratings first rated between Dec. 31, 1980, and Dec. 31, 2023. We categorized these ratings into five subsectors: utilities, power, oil and gas, social infrastructure, and transportation. Other obligors are grouped in a separate category.

The analysis excludes ratings based on the guarantee of another entity and obligations wrapped by a monoline insurer, unless the obligations bear an S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR), in which case we included the SPUR. Corporate issuers, structured finance vehicles, public-sector issuers, and sovereign issuers are the subjects of separate default and transition studies, so we have excluded them from this study. The infrastructure data makes up a sufficiently large set, although individual subsectors are small, so that a few defaults or rating transitions can have a sizable effect on portfolio performance within those groups.

Our ongoing enhancement of the database used to generate this study could lead to outcomes that differ to some degree from those reported in previous studies. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. Therefore, each annual default study is self-contained and effectively supersedes all previous versions.

Withdrawn ratings

When a rating is withdrawn, it is changed to not rated (NR). Issue ratings are withdrawn when an obligation is repaid or at the request of the issuer. S&P Global Ratings also withdraws ratings when sufficient information to maintain a rating is unavailable. If we withdrew a rating after the issue defaulted, we counted it as a default.

Definition of default

A default is assumed to take place on the date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating to 'D', which could occur when a payment on the issue is missed, a distressed exchange offer is completed, or the issuer filed for or was forced into bankruptcy. When an issue defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating.

For the purposes of this study, if an issue defaults, we end its rating history at 'D'. For those instances when an issue defaulted and was subsequently upgraded, we entered the rating history after the default into the calculations as a new rating.

Many practitioners use statistics from this default study to estimate "probability of default" and "probability of rating transition." It is important to note that S&P Global Ratings' credit ratings do not imply a specific probability of default.

Static pool methodology

We conduct our default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issues by rating category at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. We assign all issues included in the study to one or more static pools. When an issue defaults, we assign that default back to all of the static pools to which the issue belonged.

We use the static pool methodology to avoid certain pitfalls in estimating default rates. This is to ensure that default rates account for rating migration and to allow for default rates to be calculated across multiperiod time horizons.

The pools are static in the sense that their membership remains constant over time. Each static pool can be interpreted as a buy-and-hold portfolio. Because errors, if any, are corrected by every new update and because the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of issues in the default study are subject to minor revisions as time goes by, it is not possible to compare static pools across different studies. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Jan. 1, 1981, to avoid continuity problems.

Because static pools only include issues with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude those with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. If the rating on an issue is withdrawn after the start date of a particular static pool and the issue subsequently defaults, we will include it in that static pool as a default and categorize it in the rating category of which it was a member at that time.

For instance, the 1983 static pool consists of all issues rated as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1983. Adding those issues first rated in 1983 to the surviving members of the 1983 static pool forms the 1984 static pool. All rating changes that took place are reflected in the newly formed 1984 static pool through the ratings on these issues as of 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 1, 1984. We used the same method to form static pools for 1985-2023.

Consider the following example: An issue is originally rated 'BB' in mid-1996 and is downgraded to 'B' in 1998. This is followed by a rating withdrawal in 2000 and a default in 2003. We would include this hypothetical issue in the 1997 and 1998 pools with the 'BB' rating, which was the rating at the beginning of those years. Likewise, it would be included in the 1999 and 2000 pools with the 'B' rating. It would not be part of the 1996 pool because it was not rated as of the first day of that year, and it would not be included in any pool after the last day of 2000 because the rating had been withdrawn by then. Yet each of the four pools that we include the company in (1997-2000) would record its 2003 default at the appropriate time horizon.

Transition matrices

Transition rates compare issue ratings at the beginning of a period with the ratings at the end of the period. To compute one-year rating transition rates by rating category, we compared the rating on each entity at the end of a particular year with the rating at the beginning of the same year. We counted an issue that remained rated for more than one year as many times as the number of years it was rated.

For instance, an issue continually rated from the middle of 1984 to the middle of 1991 would appear in the seven consecutive one-year transition matrices from 1985 to 1991. If we withdrew the rating on the issue in the middle of 1991, we would include it in the column representing transitions to NR in the 1991 transition matrix. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, we would include it in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix.

All 1982 static pool members still rated on Jan. 1, 2023, had 41 one-year transitions, while companies first rated on Dec. 31, 2021, had only one. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. For each rating listed in the matrix's leftmost column, there are nine ratios listed in the rows, corresponding to the ratings from 'AAA' to not rated.

In these calculations, we only consider the ratings on entities at the beginning of each static pool and those at the end. All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. For example, if we rated an issue 'A' on Jan. 1, 2014, and downgraded it to 'BBB' in the middle of the year and then upgraded it to 'A' later in the year (with no other subsequent rating changes), this instrument would be included only in the percentage of issues that began the year as 'A' and that ended the year as 'A'. This also applies to transition matrices that span longer time horizons. If an issue defaults or if we withdraw the rating in the middle of the year, then we would consider to to be rated 'D' or not rated as of Dec. 31 of that particular year.

Multiyear transitions

We also calculated multiyear transitions for periods of two to five years. In this case, we compared the rating at the beginning of the multiyear period with the rating at the end. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2021 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2023.

Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. These average matrices are a true summary, the ratios of which represent the historical incidence of the ratings listed in the first column changing to the ones listed in the top row over the course of the multiyear period. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issue-weighted averages.

Rating modifiers

We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. However, some transition tables may use full rating categories for practical reasons: The use of a rating category suggests that transitions to 'AA-' from 'AA', for example, or to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+' are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category.

Issue-weighted statistics

We calculate the averages that appear in this study based on the number of issues, rather than the dollar amounts, affected by defaults or rating changes. Although dollar amounts provide information about the portion of the market affected by defaults or rating changes, we believe issue-weighted averages are more useful measures of the performance of ratings.

Average cumulative default rate calculation

The cumulative default rates in this study average the experience of all static pools by first calculating marginal default rates for each possible time horizon and for each static pool, weight-averaging the marginal default rates conditional on survival (survivors being nondefaulters), and accumulating the average conditional marginal default rates.

We calculated conditional default rates by dividing the number of issues in a static pool that default at a specific time horizon by the number of issues that survived (did not default) to that point in time. Weights are based on the number of issues in each static pool. Cumulative default rates are one minus the product of the proportion of survivors (nondefaulters).

Appendix II: Additional Exhibits

Chart 14

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Chart 15

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Chart 16

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Chart 17

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Chart 18

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Chart 19

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Table 14

Infrastructure rating distribution, Jan. 1, 2024
--Number of ratings--
Utilities Oil and gas Transportation Power Social infrastructure Other
AAA 1 0 1 0 0 3
AA 12 2 7 2 0 18
A 178 10 43 8 30 72
BBB 278 89 85 73 45 23
BB 43 53 27 54 17 7
B 16 36 9 19 3 7
CCC/C 5 5 3 8 2 0
Total 533 195 175 164 97 130
Speculative-grade 64 94 39 81 22 14
--Percent of ratings--
Utilities Oil and gas Transportation Power Social infrastructure Other
AAA 0.19 N/A 0.57 N/A N/A 2.31
AA 2.25 1.03 4.00 1.22 N/A 13.85
A 33.40 5.13 24.57 4.88 30.93 55.38
BBB 52.16 45.64 48.57 44.51 46.39 17.69
BB 8.07 27.18 15.43 32.93 17.53 5.38
B 3.00 18.46 5.14 11.59 3.09 5.38
CCC/C 0.94 2.56 1.71 4.88 2.06 N/A
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Speculative-grade 12.01 48.21 22.29 49.39 22.68 10.77
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights

Table 15

Average transition rates for all infrastructure (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 84.59 6.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.65
AA 0.39 83.69 8.05 0.53 0.14 0.07 0.00 0.00 7.13
A 0.03 0.99 85.78 5.43 0.12 0.04 0.05 0.08 7.46
BBB 0.00 0.01 2.44 85.73 2.59 0.22 0.24 0.12 8.64
BB 0.00 0.00 0.11 6.53 72.96 6.87 0.94 0.25 12.33
B 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.91 8.65 67.80 6.88 1.77 13.81
CCC/C 0.51 0.00 0.51 0.00 2.22 10.75 54.78 13.82 17.41
Three year
AAA 58.14 14.15 1.74 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.42
AA 0.84 59.41 16.56 2.01 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.73
A 0.06 2.12 63.64 11.59 0.59 0.22 0.09 0.27 21.43
BBB 0.01 0.04 5.83 63.42 4.29 1.10 0.60 0.65 24.07
BB 0.03 0.00 0.20 12.44 40.61 8.82 2.17 1.50 34.23
B 0.10 0.00 0.30 3.32 14.58 30.79 7.98 5.11 37.83
CCC/C 0.38 0.00 0.00 1.14 3.42 11.01 16.51 25.05 42.50
Five year
AAA 37.72 15.77 1.80 4.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.92
AA 0.92 41.60 19.36 3.11 0.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.39
A 0.09 2.39 48.08 13.43 0.73 0.31 0.13 0.51 34.33
BBB 0.02 0.05 7.19 47.21 4.38 1.39 0.72 1.14 37.89
BB 0.06 0.00 0.46 13.53 23.66 5.96 1.94 2.95 51.45
B 0.00 0.00 0.39 4.70 12.30 13.30 4.36 7.43 57.52
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.92 1.50 7.91 5.13 30.34 53.21
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 16

Average transition rates for corporate infrastructure excluding utilities (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 87.50 5.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.91
AA 0.97 87.08 5.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.24
A 0.06 1.19 87.27 4.92 0.17 0.11 0.00 0.06 6.23
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.07 86.24 3.04 0.36 0.18 0.09 9.01
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 73.37 5.74 0.26 0.40 14.24
B 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.68 7.59 70.53 6.23 1.07 13.72
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59 12.44 57.51 10.88 16.58
Three year
AAA 66.90 14.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.28
AA 2.29 65.90 13.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.19
A 0.07 2.87 65.01 12.27 0.72 0.46 0.00 0.20 18.41
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.16 65.29 5.31 1.66 0.53 0.73 24.31
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.26 40.72 6.85 1.14 1.29 38.74
B 0.00 0.00 0.32 2.26 13.32 33.73 8.38 3.76 38.24
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 1.83 13.41 17.07 19.51 47.56
Five year
AAA 47.65 20.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.77
AA 2.63 50.31 17.02 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.91
A 0.08 3.77 47.52 15.89 1.36 0.38 0.23 0.38 30.42
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.47 50.59 5.44 2.55 0.80 1.41 36.75
BB 0.00 0.00 0.09 12.26 22.84 4.27 1.11 2.32 57.10
B 0.00 0.00 0.50 3.23 12.05 14.16 4.35 5.47 60.25
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 1.41 7.75 7.04 21.83 60.56
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 17

Average transition rates for utilities (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 82.19 8.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.13
AA 0.11 82.06 9.35 0.77 0.22 0.11 0.00 0.00 7.39
A 0.03 1.06 84.81 5.67 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.10 8.13
BBB 0.00 0.00 3.41 84.59 2.04 0.11 0.24 0.16 9.45
BB 0.00 0.00 0.32 10.19 70.15 5.52 1.17 0.06 12.59
B 0.00 0.00 0.37 2.04 12.41 61.67 6.67 2.22 14.63
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.00 0.45 13.00 53.81 18.39 13.00
Three year
AAA 48.85 13.82 4.15 3.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.49
AA 0.17 56.43 18.55 2.90 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.28
A 0.06 2.18 61.81 11.96 0.56 0.15 0.12 0.30 22.86
BBB 0.00 0.00 8.20 61.02 3.10 0.59 0.40 0.69 26.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.55 18.03 37.16 6.26 1.86 1.10 35.03
B 0.00 0.00 0.59 8.48 17.16 23.08 6.90 7.10 36.69
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.38 2.38 10.00 16.67 31.43 37.14
Five year
AAA 26.51 10.23 4.19 11.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.91
AA 0.17 37.75 21.07 3.94 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.15
A 0.08 2.34 46.23 13.47 0.61 0.24 0.11 0.55 36.36
BBB 0.00 0.00 9.95 44.26 2.83 0.61 0.51 1.11 40.73
BB 0.00 0.00 1.11 18.64 19.75 4.73 1.04 2.29 52.44
B 0.00 0.00 0.64 11.56 12.85 5.57 4.07 10.28 55.03
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.55 0.51 8.12 5.08 36.55 46.19
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 18

Average transition rates for project finance (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 44.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.56
AA 0.00 80.95 4.76 1.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.70
A 0.00 0.11 90.47 4.55 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.66
BBB 0.00 0.06 1.31 88.21 3.59 0.38 0.29 0.06 6.09
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.83 75.80 9.80 1.45 0.31 9.80
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 7.19 68.59 8.13 2.50 13.28
CCC/C 1.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.12 5.88 52.94 11.18 24.12
Three year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 54.10 0.00 4.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.98
A 0.00 0.13 76.29 7.19 0.63 0.38 0.00 0.13 15.26
BBB 0.04 0.18 3.27 67.97 6.43 1.88 1.21 0.46 18.56
BB 0.09 0.00 0.00 6.75 44.81 14.27 3.72 2.25 28.11
B 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.52 14.34 32.82 8.29 5.53 38.17
CCC/C 1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.54 9.80 15.69 22.22 44.44
Five year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 37.93 0.00 5.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.90
A 0.15 0.15 66.27 8.17 0.59 0.74 0.15 0.45 23.33
BBB 0.12 0.24 4.34 52.01 7.65 2.39 1.23 0.96 31.06
BB 0.19 0.00 0.00 8.16 29.64 9.33 3.98 4.47 44.22
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77 12.19 18.96 4.64 7.93 55.51
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 7.75 3.10 30.23 55.81
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 19

Average transition rates for oil and gas (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 80.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00
AA 0.00 81.82 13.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.55
A 0.14 0.27 85.58 6.67 0.54 0.14 0.00 0.14 6.53
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.97 87.48 2.92 0.18 0.00 0.00 8.45
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.63 71.82 5.87 0.20 0.20 14.29
B 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.96 7.93 70.86 5.88 0.68 13.41
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.51 14.04 57.89 6.14 18.42
Three year
AAA 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00
AA 0.00 54.76 26.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.05
A 0.14 0.14 62.99 15.36 1.54 0.28 0.00 0.42 19.13
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.80 69.69 5.36 1.41 0.15 0.15 21.44
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.46 37.37 6.34 1.00 0.89 39.93
B 0.00 0.00 0.46 3.21 14.35 34.35 8.70 2.44 36.49
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.06 3.19 11.70 17.02 10.64 56.38
Five year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
AA 0.00 27.50 25.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00
A 0.14 0.14 46.24 19.94 2.02 0.00 0.00 0.72 30.78
BBB 0.00 0.00 2.32 56.91 5.58 2.32 0.61 0.28 31.99
BB 0.00 0.00 0.13 15.08 21.33 2.08 1.04 1.04 59.30
B 0.00 0.00 0.72 4.30 12.19 15.59 3.94 3.76 59.50
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.63 1.32 9.21 9.21 13.16 64.47
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 20

Average transition rates for power (1981-2023)
AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AA 88.89 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 80.51 15.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.24
BBB 0.00 0.74 88.48 3.86 0.52 0.52 0.22 5.65
BB 0.00 0.00 1.80 75.27 9.60 1.08 0.72 11.52
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.25 71.17 6.85 2.02 13.71
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.63 8.33 52.78 13.89 20.37
Three year
AA 57.14 42.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 57.28 31.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.65
BBB 0.00 1.09 69.70 6.01 3.01 1.00 1.75 17.45
BB 0.00 0.00 3.85 45.16 14.53 3.28 1.99 31.20
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.97 32.53 8.35 4.84 41.32
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 13.54 14.58 26.04 41.67
Five year
AA 40.00 60.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 44.44 37.04 1.23 2.47 0.00 0.00 14.81
BBB 0.00 0.85 54.69 6.92 3.79 1.42 3.32 29.00
BB 0.00 0.00 4.28 27.09 11.41 3.57 3.92 49.73
B 0.00 0.00 0.49 12.84 14.07 5.43 7.16 60.00
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.32 7.89 3.95 32.89 53.95
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 21

Average transition rates for transportation (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 83.51 7.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.28
AA 1.49 84.39 5.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.55
A 0.00 0.63 87.13 4.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.85
BBB 0.00 0.00 1.94 87.41 2.58 0.40 0.40 0.00 7.26
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.91 79.14 7.06 0.31 0.00 8.59
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.71 10.64 70.21 9.22 1.42 7.80
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.76 60.78 9.80 17.65
Three year
AAA 59.14 19.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.51
AA 3.92 58.82 12.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.10
A 0.00 1.48 65.25 11.09 0.55 0.37 0.00 0.00 21.26
BBB 0.00 0.00 5.20 64.68 5.58 0.65 1.12 0.37 22.40
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.90 47.74 13.16 2.26 1.13 24.81
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 15.57 40.98 10.66 4.10 27.87
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.39 19.51 19.51 36.59
Five year
AAA 33.71 28.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.20
AA 5.22 40.43 14.35 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.57
A 0.00 2.01 49.78 13.39 0.89 0.22 0.67 0.00 33.04
BBB 0.00 0.00 6.60 46.75 6.38 2.20 0.55 0.88 36.63
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.49 28.64 14.08 2.35 2.35 37.09
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.13 13.54 27.08 6.25 5.21 44.79
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.82 8.82 23.53 58.82
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 22

Average transition rates for social infrastructure (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 66.67 0.00 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67
A 0.00 0.00 93.58 3.21 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.96
BBB 0.00 0.26 1.80 90.76 3.21 0.39 0.13 0.00 3.47
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.30 87.36 3.85 1.10 0.00 4.40
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.35 8.70 56.52 17.39 0.00 13.04
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 50.00 10.00 30.00
Three year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 16.67 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00
A 0.00 0.00 82.85 5.23 0.29 0.29 0.00 0.00 11.34
BBB 0.00 0.72 4.93 74.35 8.26 1.01 0.43 0.00 10.29
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.21 67.76 5.26 3.29 0.00 14.47
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.38 23.08 7.69 23.08 0.00 30.77
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 16.67 50.00 0.00
Five year
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00
A 0.00 0.00 75.00 7.50 0.00 0.71 0.00 0.00 16.79
BBB 0.00 1.02 7.45 62.61 11.68 1.18 0.68 0.00 15.40
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 56.80 4.80 4.80 0.00 21.60
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 42.86 0.00 28.57 14.29 0.00
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 0.00 0.00 66.67 0.00
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 23

Average transition rates for other finance ratings (1981-2023)
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C D NR
One year
AAA 87.68 4.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.58
AA 0.75 88.10 5.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.02
A 0.00 2.07 90.44 2.58 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 4.78
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.83 80.76 4.60 0.59 0.24 0.24 12.75
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.83 70.65 9.78 1.96 0.43 14.35
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 65.34 7.94 3.61 16.61
CCC/C 3.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 3.75 52.50 15.00 22.50
Three years
AAA 68.16 12.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.40
AA 1.60 68.96 11.84 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.44
A 0.00 5.80 72.95 4.03 0.16 0.81 0.00 0.16 16.10
BBB 0.12 0.00 2.10 50.00 5.20 2.97 2.48 0.87 36.26
BB 0.22 0.00 0.00 5.76 37.69 11.75 3.33 3.99 37.25
B 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.08 30.19 5.66 9.06 42.26
CCC/C 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 3.75 16.25 25.00 47.50
Five years
AAA 53.13 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.21
AA 1.56 55.11 15.60 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.69
A 0.20 8.20 57.60 3.40 0.60 1.00 0.20 0.60 28.20
BBB 0.39 0.00 2.45 30.24 4.38 2.32 2.19 1.67 56.37
BB 0.46 0.00 0.00 6.39 23.52 5.94 3.20 8.22 52.28
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.38 16.41 2.73 11.33 60.16
CCC/C 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.53 6.33 1.27 29.11 60.76
NR--Not rated. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 24  |  View Expanded Table

Infrastructure rating actions per year
--Utilities-- --Power-- --Oil and gas--
Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults Upgrades Downgrades Defaults
1981 6.00 -40.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00
1982 20.00 -28.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.00 0.00
1983 20.00 -29.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.00 0.00
1984 78.00 -28.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 -3.00 0.00
1985 36.00 -26.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 -11.00 0.00
1986 32.00 -37.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 -12.00 0.00
1987 16.00 -48.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 -1.00 0.00
1988 18.00 -21.00 -5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 -4.00 0.00
1989 29.00 -45.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 -1.00 0.00
1990 32.00 -29.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 -2.00 0.00
1991 24.00 -27.00 -3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 -5.00 0.00
1992 28.00 -22.00 -5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 -8.00 0.00
1993 7.00 -37.00 0.00 0.00 -3.00 0.00 1.00 -3.00 0.00
1994 6.00 -41.00 0.00 0.00 -1.00 0.00 4.00 -3.00 0.00
1995 32.00 -18.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 -3.00 0.00
1996 28.00 -17.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 -5.00 0.00
1997 67.00 -29.00 0.00 3.00 -1.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00
1998 16.00 -32.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 -3.00 0.00
1999 52.00 -60.00 0.00 4.00 -2.00 0.00 5.00 -4.00 0.00
2000 21.00 -76.00 0.00 0.00 -2.00 0.00 1.00 -3.00 0.00
2001 48.00 -106.00 -9.00 3.00 -11.00 0.00 10.00 -5.00 -1.00
2002 25.00 -149.00 -13.00 0.00 -19.00 -4.00 7.00 -20.00 0.00
2003 10.00 -130.00 -4.00 5.00 -11.00 -9.00 4.00 -15.00 0.00
2004 51.00 -42.00 -1.00 7.00 -7.00 0.00 4.00 -21.00 0.00
2005 63.00 -44.00 -5.00 6.00 -10.00 -2.00 11.00 -21.00 0.00
2006 40.00 -32.00 0.00 16.00 -4.00 0.00 29.00 -7.00 0.00
2007 92.00 -55.00 0.00 12.00 -5.00 0.00 23.00 -13.00 0.00
2008 76.00 -37.00 0.00 6.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 -8.00 0.00
2009 40.00 -62.00 -4.00 3.00 -18.00 0.00 4.00 -11.00 0.00
2010 34.00 -68.00 -3.00 10.00 -21.00 0.00 13.00 -9.00 0.00
2011 44.00 -65.00 -6.00 7.00 -11.00 0.00 13.00 -10.00 0.00
2012 29.00 -66.00 -2.00 2.00 -16.00 0.00 25.00 -21.00 0.00
2013 66.00 -38.00 -2.00 6.00 -17.00 -3.00 18.00 -21.00 0.00
2014 34.00 -25.00 -6.00 20.00 -17.00 0.00 37.00 -22.00 0.00
2015 66.00 -51.00 0.00 5.00 -19.00 0.00 18.00 -33.00 -1.00
2016 83.00 -46.00 0.00 9.00 -36.00 -2.00 21.00 -44.00 -2.00
2017 69.00 -45.00 -1.00 14.00 -20.00 -3.00 34.00 -29.00 -1.00
2018 54.00 -31.00 -1.00 16.00 -19.00 -1.00 40.00 -19.00 -1.00
2019 37.00 -35.00 -2.00 18.00 -29.00 0.00 23.00 -17.00 -1.00
2020 10.00 -55.00 -1.00 17.00 -26.00 -2.00 3.00 -54.00 -5.00
2021 32.00 -65.00 0.00 6.00 -31.00 0.00 12.00 -24.00 -1.00
2022 14.00 -28.00 0.00 7.00 -24.00 -2.00 32.00 -12.00 -1.00
2023 15.00 -27.00 -1.00 16.00 -21.00 -6.00 25.00 -12.00 -1.00
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 25

All infrastructure cumulative default rates with modifier (1981-2023)
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA+ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
A+ 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24 0.31 0.38 0.45 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
A 0.12 0.21 0.34 0.47 0.61 0.69 0.76 0.84 0.92 1.05 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14
A- 0.07 0.16 0.23 0.33 0.43 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.63 0.67 0.67 0.67
BBB+ 0.16 0.35 0.60 0.81 0.98 1.07 1.20 1.31 1.42 1.58 1.75 1.93 1.98 2.08 2.13
BBB 0.09 0.28 0.47 0.66 0.81 0.99 1.16 1.36 1.50 1.70 1.89 2.03 2.21 2.40 2.61
BBB- 0.13 0.52 0.84 1.12 1.39 1.65 1.92 2.21 2.36 2.46 2.57 2.64 2.81 2.90 3.00
BB+ 0.00 0.13 0.41 1.57 2.42 2.91 3.17 3.44 3.64 3.86 4.10 4.37 4.51 4.67 4.84
BB 0.64 1.01 1.63 2.12 2.64 3.01 3.21 3.54 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79
BB- 0.15 1.09 2.71 3.26 3.85 4.39 4.85 5.24 5.51 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.65
B+ 0.83 2.65 3.88 5.18 5.94 6.63 7.38 7.70 8.07 8.07 8.07 8.07 8.07 8.07 8.07
B 1.66 3.40 5.08 6.20 7.22 7.94 8.32 8.72 9.36 9.60 9.60 9.60 9.60 9.60 9.60
B- 3.65 6.65 8.34 10.61 12.06 13.31 13.58 14.17 14.79 15.78 16.14 16.53 16.53 16.53 16.53
CCC/C 13.82 20.78 24.42 26.92 27.81 28.50 29.48 30.01 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28
Investment-grade 0.09 0.26 0.42 0.58 0.72 0.84 0.95 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.34 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.62
Speculative-grade 1.83 3.32 4.56 5.68 6.47 7.06 7.49 7.86 8.19 8.36 8.45 8.54 8.57 8.61 8.65
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.26 1.61 1.87 2.09 2.26 2.43 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.84 2.90 2.96 3.02
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 26

Investment-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years 'A' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'BBB' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'A' nonfinancial corporates 'BBB' nonfinancial corporates
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 0.08 0.12 0.03 0.12
2 0.17 0.38 0.07 0.33
3 0.26 0.63 0.11 0.59
4 0.36 0.85 0.18 0.93
5 0.47 1.05 0.28 1.31
6 0.55 1.23 0.40 1.68
7 0.60 1.42 0.56 2.01
8 0.65 1.63 0.71 2.33
9 0.68 1.76 0.87 2.65
10 0.72 1.92 1.03 2.95
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 27

Speculative-grade cumulative default rates (%)
Years 'BB' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'B' infrastructure corporates and project finance 'CCC'/'C' infrastructure 'BB' nonfinancial corporates 'B' nonfinancial corporates 'CCC'/'C' nonfinancial corporates
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1 0.25 1.77 13.82 0.57 3.06 27.11
2 0.71 3.84 20.78 1.88 7.27 37.69
3 1.50 5.32 24.42 3.41 11.03 43.46
4 2.26 6.79 26.92 4.92 14.10 46.70
5 2.93 7.79 27.81 6.35 16.54 49.01
6 3.39 8.62 28.50 7.65 18.48 50.06
7 3.69 9.13 29.48 8.80 20.00 51.12
8 4.01 9.55 30.01 9.88 21.19 51.75
9 4.25 10.07 30.28 10.84 22.23 52.38
10 4.37 10.40 30.28 11.70 23.19 52.97
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 28

Average cumulative default rates (1981- 2023) (%)
--Time horizon (years)--
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
All infrastructure
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
A 0.08 0.17 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.83 0.83 0.83
BBB 0.12 0.38 0.63 0.85 1.05 1.23 1.42 1.63 1.76 1.92 2.07 2.20 2.34 2.47 2.60
BB 0.25 0.71 1.50 2.26 2.93 3.39 3.69 4.01 4.25 4.37 4.47 4.57 4.62 4.68 4.75
B 1.77 3.84 5.32 6.79 7.79 8.62 9.13 9.55 10.07 10.40 10.49 10.58 10.58 10.58 10.58
CCC/C 13.82 20.78 24.42 26.92 27.81 28.50 29.48 30.01 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28
Investment-grade 0.09 0.26 0.42 0.58 0.72 0.84 0.95 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.34 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.62
Speculative-grade 1.83 3.32 4.56 5.68 6.47 7.06 7.49 7.86 8.19 8.36 8.45 8.54 8.57 8.61 8.65
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.26 1.61 1.87 2.09 2.26 2.43 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.84 2.90 2.96 3.02
Project finance
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.26 0.41 0.57 0.75 0.95 0.95 1.21 1.51 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
BBB 0.06 0.27 0.44 0.67 0.87 0.95 1.04 1.09 1.15 1.26 1.44 1.57 1.71 1.71 1.71
BB 0.31 0.96 2.34 3.35 4.42 5.25 5.81 6.54 7.07 7.35 7.51 7.68 7.87 8.08 8.33
B 2.50 4.96 5.99 7.26 8.60 9.83 10.70 11.42 12.21 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50
CCC/C 11.18 16.69 21.32 24.89 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72
Investment-grade 0.05 0.20 0.37 0.57 0.75 0.85 0.96 1.04 1.08 1.21 1.41 1.57 1.68 1.68 1.68
Speculative-grade 1.84 3.44 4.98 6.27 7.40 8.30 8.92 9.58 10.15 10.41 10.51 10.61 10.73 10.86 11.01
All rated 0.66 1.31 1.93 2.51 3.01 3.38 3.67 3.94 4.16 4.34 4.50 4.64 4.76 4.80 4.85
Corporate infrastructure excluding utilties
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.25 0.33 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.52 0.65 0.65 0.65
BBB 0.09 0.37 0.70 1.02 1.29 1.62 1.98 2.38 2.71 3.07 3.34 3.57 3.82 4.18 4.49
BB 0.40 0.68 1.21 1.79 2.44 2.85 3.32 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58
B 1.07 2.79 4.07 5.34 6.20 7.14 7.58 7.90 8.64 9.27 9.50 9.77 9.77 9.77 9.77
CCC/C 10.88 16.97 19.41 20.80 21.51 21.51 22.31 23.19 23.19 23.19 23.19 23.19 23.19 23.19 23.19
Investment-grade 0.06 0.23 0.42 0.61 0.77 0.96 1.14 1.34 1.50 1.68 1.81 1.95 2.10 2.26 2.40
Speculative-grade 1.39 2.62 3.58 4.48 5.22 5.81 6.29 6.63 6.94 7.20 7.30 7.41 7.41 7.41 7.41
All rated 0.46 0.95 1.37 1.76 2.09 2.39 2.66 2.90 3.10 3.29 3.41 3.55 3.66 3.79 3.90
Utilities
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
A 0.10 0.20 0.29 0.40 0.52 0.58 0.64 0.67 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79
BBB 0.16 0.42 0.67 0.86 1.03 1.19 1.36 1.55 1.65 1.76 1.87 1.98 2.08 2.20 2.32
BB 0.06 0.53 1.08 1.80 2.17 2.40 2.40 2.48 2.66 2.75 2.85 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
B 2.22 4.50 6.87 8.92 9.79 10.01 10.24 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48
CCC/C 18.39 27.15 30.98 33.52 34.57 36.21 37.88 38.46 39.08 39.08 39.08 39.08 39.08 39.08 39.08
Investment-grade 0.12 0.28 0.43 0.57 0.69 0.79 0.89 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.34 1.39
Speculative-grade 2.34 4.04 5.33 6.53 7.08 7.44 7.66 7.82 8.00 8.06 8.13 8.19 8.19 8.19 8.19
All rated 0.38 0.72 1.01 1.27 1.44 1.57 1.69 1.80 1.87 1.94 2.00 2.06 2.10 2.14 2.19
Oil and gas
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.14 0.27 0.41 0.56 0.70 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
BBB 0.00 0.05 0.14 0.25 0.30 0.36 0.49 0.63 0.71 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79
BB 0.20 0.51 0.84 0.96 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
B 0.68 1.69 2.45 3.27 4.17 5.14 5.36 5.36 5.62 5.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 5.92
CCC/C 6.14 8.96 11.07 13.54 14.83 14.83 16.44 18.34 18.34 18.34 18.34 18.34 18.34 18.34 18.34
Investment-grade 0.03 0.10 0.21 0.32 0.40 0.48 0.57 0.67 0.72 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77
Speculative-grade 0.75 1.48 2.09 2.62 3.11 3.50 3.67 3.76 3.87 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99
All rated 0.31 0.62 0.92 1.18 1.40 1.59 1.71 1.81 1.87 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95
Power
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.17 4.50 4.50 4.50
BBB 0.22 0.93 1.68 2.39 2.96 3.68 4.34 5.05 5.69 6.38 6.99 7.50 8.05 8.88 9.57
BB 0.72 1.37 2.08 3.03 4.45 5.85 7.00 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
B 2.02 4.52 6.46 8.49 9.93 10.97 11.54 12.22 13.42 14.35 14.90 15.53 15.53 15.53 15.53
CCC/C 13.89 22.70 26.82 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14 29.14
Investment-grade 0.20 0.85 1.54 2.19 2.72 3.38 4.00 4.66 5.25 5.89 6.46 7.08 7.76 8.52 9.16
Speculative-grade 2.16 4.08 5.51 6.97 8.30 9.46 10.29 10.97 11.45 11.82 12.04 12.28 12.28 12.28 12.28
All rated 1.17 2.45 3.50 4.54 5.46 6.35 7.06 7.73 8.27 8.80 9.23 9.70 10.12 10.60 11.01
Transportation
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BBB 0.00 0.17 0.36 0.56 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
BB 0.00 0.34 1.09 1.51 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98
B 1.42 2.92 3.75 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68 4.68
CCC/C 9.80 14.10 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63 16.63
Investment-grade 0.00 0.09 0.20 0.31 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Speculative-grade 1.35 2.40 3.34 3.87 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.16
All rated 0.25 0.52 0.78 0.96 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
Social
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80
BBB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.19 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.62 2.62
B 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.29 31.43 48.57 48.57 48.57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
CCC/C 10.00 21.25 40.94 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 60.63 N/A
Investment-grade 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46
Speculative-grade 0.47 0.98 1.57 2.22 2.95 3.77 4.68 5.75 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
All rated 0.07 0.15 0.23 0.32 0.42 0.53 0.65 0.79 0.95 1.13 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35
Other
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
A 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.34 0.54 0.76 1.01 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
BBB 0.24 0.60 0.85 1.23 1.61 1.88 2.14 2.28 2.42 2.70 3.13 3.43 3.73 3.73 3.73
BB 0.43 1.09 3.98 6.22 8.05 9.22 10.18 11.15 11.88 12.37 12.63 12.90 13.17 13.47 13.80
B 3.61 7.69 8.82 9.98 10.77 11.96 13.17 14.41 15.67 16.09 16.09 16.09 16.09 16.09 16.09
CCC/C 15.00 21.25 25.00 27.50 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77 28.77
Investment-grade 0.08 0.21 0.34 0.53 0.72 0.88 1.04 1.15 1.21 1.33 1.52 1.73 1.87 1.87 1.87
Speculative-grade 2.94 5.30 7.69 9.60 11.03 12.09 13.03 13.98 14.81 15.23 15.37 15.52 15.68 15.85 16.04
All rated 0.78 1.48 2.20 2.85 3.38 3.79 4.17 4.53 4.82 5.04 5.22 5.40 5.55 5.60 5.66
N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 29

All infrastructure cumulative default rates (1981-2023)
--Time horizon (years)--
Rating 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
A 0.08 0.17 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.77 0.81 0.83 0.83 0.83
BBB 0.12 0.38 0.63 0.85 1.05 1.23 1.42 1.63 1.76 1.92 2.07 2.20 2.34 2.47 2.60
BB 0.25 0.71 1.50 2.26 2.93 3.39 3.69 4.01 4.25 4.37 4.47 4.57 4.62 4.68 4.75
B 1.77 3.84 5.32 6.79 7.79 8.62 9.13 9.55 10.07 10.40 10.49 10.58 10.58 10.58 10.58
CCC/C 13.82 20.78 24.42 26.92 27.81 28.50 29.48 30.01 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28 30.28
Investment-grade 0.09 0.26 0.42 0.58 0.72 0.84 0.95 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.34 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.62
Speculative-grade 1.83 3.32 4.56 5.68 6.47 7.06 7.49 7.86 8.19 8.36 8.45 8.54 8.57 8.61 8.65
All rated 0.45 0.88 1.26 1.61 1.87 2.09 2.26 2.43 2.55 2.66 2.75 2.84 2.90 2.96 3.02
Nonfinance corporate cumulative default rates 1981-2023
AAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.30 0.37
AA 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.31 0.36 0.41 0.46 0.49 0.54
A 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.18 0.28 0.40 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.03 1.17 1.31 1.44 1.57 1.70
BBB 0.12 0.33 0.59 0.93 1.31 1.68 2.01 2.33 2.65 2.95 3.24 3.46 3.65 3.85 4.07
BB 0.57 1.88 3.41 4.92 6.35 7.65 8.80 9.88 10.84 11.70 12.39 13.04 13.64 14.14 14.66
B 3.06 7.27 11.03 14.10 16.54 18.48 20.00 21.19 22.23 23.19 24.00 24.64 25.26 25.85 26.43
CCC/C 27.11 37.69 43.46 46.70 49.01 50.06 51.12 51.75 52.38 52.97 53.51 54.00 54.52 54.91 54.91
Investment-grade 0.07 0.19 0.34 0.54 0.77 1.00 1.23 1.44 1.66 1.87 2.06 2.22 2.36 2.50 2.66
Speculative-grade 3.75 7.26 10.28 12.73 14.75 16.37 17.70 18.81 19.79 20.68 21.41 22.04 22.64 23.17 23.69
All rated 1.95 3.78 5.37 6.68 7.78 8.69 9.44 10.07 10.63 11.15 11.58 11.94 12.28 12.58 12.89
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 30

Marginal default rates (1981-2023)
--Time horizon (years)--
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
All infrastructure
A 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05
BBB 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.14 0.16
BB 0.25 0.46 0.80 0.77 0.68 0.48 0.31 0.34 0.24 0.13
B 1.77 2.11 1.54 1.55 1.08 0.90 0.56 0.46 0.58 0.36
All rated 0.45 0.44 0.38 0.35 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.11
Nonfinancial corporate
A 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16
BBB 0.12 0.21 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.38 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.31
BB 0.57 1.32 1.55 1.57 1.50 1.39 1.24 1.18 1.07 0.96
B 3.06 4.34 4.06 3.45 2.84 2.32 1.87 1.48 1.32 1.24
All rated 1.95 1.87 1.65 1.39 1.18 0.98 0.82 0.70 0.63 0.58
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

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Table 31

Infrastructure rating distribution by region or country
Rating North America* U.S. EMEA Asia-Pacific Canada Latin America Total
Number of ratings
AAA 1 0 3 0 1 1 5
AA 15 4 16 0 11 10 41
A 177 120 131 7 57 26 341
BBB 255 211 229 53 44 56 593
BB 106 83 51 30 23 14 201
B 55 55 25 7 0 3 90
CCC/C 9 9 5 8 0 1 23
% rating distribution by region or country
AAA 0.16 0.00 0.65 0.00 0.74 N/A 0.39
AA 2.43 0.83 3.48 0.00 8.09 N/A 3.17
A 28.64 24.90 28.48 6.67 41.91 23.42 26.35
BBB 41.26 43.78 49.78 50.48 32.35 50.45 45.83
BB 17.15 17.22 11.09 28.57 16.91 12.61 15.53
B 8.90 11.41 5.43 6.67 0.00 2.70 6.96
CCC/C 1.46 1.87 1.09 7.62 0.00 0.90 1.78
Variance in rating distribution from total by region or country
AAA -0.22 -0.39 0.27 -0.39 0.35 N/A 0.00
AA -0.74 -2.34 0.31 -3.17 4.92 N/A 0.00
A 2.29 -1.46 2.13 -19.69 15.56 -2.93 0.00
BBB -4.56 -2.05 3.96 4.65 -13.47 4.62 0.00
BB 1.62 1.69 -4.45 13.04 1.38 -2.92 0.00
B 1.94 4.46 -1.52 -0.29 -6.96 -4.25 0.00
CCC/C -0.32 0.09 -0.69 5.84 -1.78 -0.88 0.00
*U.S., Canada, and tax havens. Ratings as of Jan. 1, 2024. EMEA--Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

Table 32

Infrastructure defaults
Issuer Type Subsector Debt type Country Region Default date Rating prior to default Year

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC 1988

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC- 1988

Public Service Co. of New Hampshire

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/28/1988 CCC- 1988

Geothermal Resources International Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 8/11/1988 CC 1988

Geothermal Resources International Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 8/11/1988 CC 1988

Columbia Energy Group

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/31/1991 BB 1991

Columbia Energy Group

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/31/1991 BB 1991

Bonneville Pacific Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/6/1991 CCC- 1991

Del Norte Funding Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC- 1992

Del Norte Funding Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC- 1992

El Paso Funding Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC- 1992

El Paso Funding Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/8/1992 CCC- 1992

El Paso Electric Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/27/1992 CCC 1992

Mobile Energy Services Co. LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/15/1999 CCC 1999

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC 2001

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC 2001

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/18/2001 CC 2001

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/9/2001 CC 2001

Southern California Edison Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/5/2001 CC 2001

York Power Funding (Cayman) Ltd.

Project finance Other Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 10/31/2001 BB- 2001

Enron Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 CC 2001

Enron Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 CC 2001

Enron Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 C 2001

Enron Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 12/3/2001 C 2001

Autopistas del Sol S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Transportation Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 2/1/2002 CC 2002

Teesside Power Financing Ltd.

Project finance Other Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 2/18/2002 BB 2002

Aguas Argentinas S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 2/19/2002 CC 2002

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B 2002

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Subordinated U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B- 2002

Covanta Energy LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Subordinated U.S. U.S. 3/1/2002 B- 2002

Inversora Electrica de Buenos Aires S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 3/15/2002 CC 2002

Metrogas S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 4/2/2002 CC 2002

Compania de Transporte de Energia Electrica en Alta Tension TRANSENER S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 4/22/2002 CC 2002

Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/7/2002 CC 2002

Aguas Argentinas S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2002 CC 2002

Azurix Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/18/2002 CC 2002

Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A. (TGN)

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 6/26/2002 CC 2002

Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 7/3/2002 CC 2002

Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 9/17/2002 CC 2002

Engie Energia Chile S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Chile Latin America 9/17/2002 CC 2002

Energy Group Ltd. (The)

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.K. EMEA 10/21/2002 CC 2002

National Energy & Gas Transmission Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/14/2002 B- 2002

TXU Eastern Funding Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.K. EMEA 11/20/2002 CC 2002

TXU Europe Ltd.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.K. EMEA 11/20/2002 CC 2002

EDF Energy Nuclear Generation Group Ltd.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.K. EMEA 2/18/2003 C 2003

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Brazil Latin America 4/23/2003 CC 2003

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Brazil Latin America 4/23/2003 CC 2003

NRG Energy Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/15/2003 CC 2003

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2003 CC 2003

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS)

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 5/16/2003 CC 2003

USGen New England Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/8/2003 C 2003

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC 2003

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC 2003

GenOn Energy Holdings Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 7/15/2003 CC 2003

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Brazil Latin America 8/14/2003 CC 2003

CESP-Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Brazil Latin America 8/14/2003 CC 2003

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CCC 2003

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CCC 2003

NorthWestern Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 9/15/2003 CC 2003

Avon Energy Partners Holdings

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.K. EMEA 1/16/2004 CC 2004

TermoEmcali Funding Corp

Project finance Other Senior secured Colombia Latin America 9/15/2004 CC 2004

Entergy New Orleans LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 10/18/2005 CC 2005

Entergy New Orleans LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 10/18/2005 CC 2005

Broad River Energy LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC- 2005

Calpine Canada Energy Finance II ULC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Canada Canada 12/21/2005 CC 2005

Calpine Canada Energy Finance ULC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Canada Canada 12/21/2005 CC 2005

Calpine Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC- 2005

Calpine Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CC 2005

Calpine Generating Co. LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC 2005

RockGen Energy LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC- 2005

Rumford Power Assoc L.P.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2005 CCC- 2005

Eurotunnel S.A.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.K. EMEA 8/16/2006 C 2006

Fixed-Link Finance 2 B.V.

Project finance Other Senior secured Netherlands EMEA 3/16/2007 C 2007

Metronet Rail BCV Finance PLC

Project finance Transportation Senior secured U.K. EMEA 2/29/2008 CC 2008

Metronet Rail SSL Finance PLC

Project finance Transportation Senior secured U.K. EMEA 2/29/2008 CC 2008

Lane Cove Tunnel Finance Co. Pty Ltd.

Project finance Other Senior secured Australia Asia Pacific 12/8/2008 CC 2008

OOO Mostransavto-Finance

Corporate infrastructure Other Senior unsecured Russia EMEA 12/24/2008 CC 2008

Northeast Biofuels L.P.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/14/2009 C 2009

Fixed-Link Finance B.V.

Project finance Other Junior Subordinated Netherlands EMEA 3/4/2009 C 2009

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC 2009

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC 2009

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC 2009

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/16/2009 CC 2009

Bosque Power Co. LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 3/26/2010 B 2010

Metrogas S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Argentina Latin America 6/18/2010 CC 2010

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 8/17/2010 CC 2010

Boston Generating LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 8/18/2010 CC 2010

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/21/2010 CCC 2010

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2011 CC 2011

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2011 CC 2011

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/2/2011 CC 2011

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/2/2011 CC 2011

Dynegy Danskammer LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 11/8/2011 CC 2011

Dynegy Holdings LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 11/8/2011 CC 2011

Astoria Generating Co. Acquisitions LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/7/2011 CCC- 2011

Par Pacific Holdings Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/19/2011 CC 2011

AES Eastern Energy L.P.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/3/2012 CC 2012

LSP Energy L.P.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/19/2012 CC 2012

Bicent Power LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/20/2012 CC 2012

Homer City Funding LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 10/10/2012 CC 2012

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/6/2012 CC 2012

Choctaw Generation L.P.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/14/2012 CC 2012

Edison Mission Energy

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/17/2012 CCC- 2012

Midwest Generation LLC

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/17/2012 CCC+ 2012

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/31/2013 CC 2013

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/31/2013 CC 2013

Northland Resources A.B.

Project finance Other Senior secured Sweden EMEA 3/7/2013 C 2013

Longview Power LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 9/3/2013 CCC- 2013

Breeze Finance S.A.

Project finance Power Subordinated Luxembourg EMEA 10/31/2013 C 2013

CRC Breeze Finance S.A.

Project finance Power Secured subordinated debt Luxembourg EMEA 10/31/2013 C 2013

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/4/2014 CC 2014

Energy Future Competitive Holdings Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Subordinated U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C 2014

Energy Future Holdings Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C 2014

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C 2014

Energy Future Intermediate Holding Co. LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 C 2014

Vistra Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/1/2014 CC 2014

Windsor Petroleum Transport Corp.

Project finance Other Senior secured U.S. U.S. 7/16/2014 CCC- 2014

Schahin II Finance Co. (SPV) Ltd.

Project finance Oil and gas Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 10/1/2015 CC 2015

Southcross Holdings Borrower L.P.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 3/28/2016 CC 2016

Ukrainian Railways JSC

Corporate infrastructure Transportation Senior secured Ukraine EMEA 3/31/2016 CC 2016

Odebrecht Oil & Gas Finance Ltd.

Project finance Oil and gas Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 4/20/2016 CC 2016

Lombard Public Facilities Corp.

Project finance Social infrastructure Senior secured U.S. U.S. 6/30/2016 CC 2016

Homer City Generation L.P.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 10/25/2016 CC 2016

Illinois Power Generating Co.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 12/19/2016 CC 2016

Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.

Project finance Oil and gas Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 4/3/2017 CCC- 2017

GenOn Americas LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CC 2017

GenOn Energy Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CCC 2017

GenOn Energy Inc.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/14/2017 CCC- 2017

Corporacion Electrica Nacional S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Venezuela Latin America 11/10/2017 CC 2017

ExGen Texas Power LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 11/13/2017 CCC- 2017

Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd.

Project finance Oil and gas Senior secured Cayman Islands U.S. 12/22/2017 CC 2017

Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refining and Marketing LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/24/2018 CCC- 2018

Energy Harbor Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/2/2018 C 2018

FirstEnergy Generation LLC

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/2/2018 C 2018

Corporacion Electrica Nacional S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Venezuela Latin America 4/24/2018 CC 2018

Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.

Project finance Other Senior secured Luxembourg EMEA 5/9/2018 B+ 2018

Constellation Oil Services Holding S.A.

Project finance Other Senior unsecured Luxembourg EMEA 5/9/2018 B 2018

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/29/2019 CC 2019

Pacific Gas & Electric Co.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 1/29/2019 CC 2019

PES Holdings LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 7/3/2019 B- 2019

Beijing Energy International Holding Co. Ltd.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Bermuda U.S. 1/21/2020 CC 2020

Longview Power LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 4/14/2020 CC 2020

Aeropuertos Argentina 2000 S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Transportation Senior secured Argentina Latin America 5/19/2020 CC 2020

CSI Compressco L.P.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/16/2020 C 2020

Ferrellgas Partners L.P.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/16/2020 C 2020

Summit Midstream Finance Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 6/23/2020 CCC- 2020

Martin Midstream Partners L.P.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 8/14/2020 CC 2020

Summit Midstream Finance Corp.

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 9/25/2020 CC 2020

Frontera Generation Holdings LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 10/23/2020 CCC 2020

Summit Midstream Partners Holdings LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 11/18/2020 C 2020

Glass Mountain Pipeline Holdings LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 8/9/2021 CC 2021

Ruby Pipeline LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 4/1/2022 CCC- 2022

Talen Energy Supply LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/10/2022 CCC+ 2022

Talen Energy Supply LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured U.S. U.S. 5/10/2022 CC 2022

Nautilus Power LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/9/2023 B 2023

Nautilus Power LLC

Project finance Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 5/9/2023 B 2023

Guacolda Energia S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Chile Latin America 8/16/2023 CC 2023

Guacolda Energia S.A.

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior unsecured Chile Latin America 4/12/2023 CC 2023

Inversiones Latin America Power Ltda.

Project finance Power Senior secured Chile Latin America 7/5/2023 CCC- 2023

FR BR Holdings LLC

Corporate infrastructure Oil and gas Senior secured U.S. U.S. 12/15/2023 CCC- 2023

Heritage Power LLC

Corporate infrastructure Power Senior secured U.S. U.S. 1/26/2023 CCC 2023

DTEK Renewables Finance B.V.

Corporate infrastructure Utilities Senior unsecured Netherlands EMEA 7/24/2023 CCC- 2023
Source: S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights.

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Credit Research & Insights:Nick W Kraemer, FRM, New York + 1 (212) 438 1698;
nick.kraemer@spglobal.com
Zev R Gurwitz, Albany + 1 (212) 438 7128;
zev.gurwitz@spglobal.com
Research Contributor:Nivritti Mishra Richhariya, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P Global Ratings affiliate, Mumbai

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