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German Covered Bond Market Insights 2024

Covered Bonds Uncovered

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2025 U.S. Residential Mortgage And Housing Outlook

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Scenario Analysis: Middle-Market CLO Ratings Withstand Stress Scenarios With Modest Downgrades (2024 Update)


German Covered Bond Market Insights 2024

In its Covered Bond Market Insights report, S&P Global Ratings presents the local covered bond market, explains how the relevant legal framework works, provides an overview on the local mortgage market, compares key characteristics of the existing programs, and presents the results of a scenario analysis.

Market Overview – Year-To-Date Volumes Exceed €26 Billion, But Are Below 2022 And 2023 Volumes

Benchmark German covered bond issuance for the year to date was down 16% as of Sept. 5, 2024, from the equivalent period in 2023, which together with 2022 were record years. A substantial share of year-to-date issuance occurred in the first quarter of 2024 as the factors driving strong issuance supply continued into early 2024. This includes banks' repayment of their earlier borrowings under the European Central Bank (ECB)'s targeted longer-term refinancing operation; subdued deposit growth; and the ongoing widening of covered bond spreads early in 2024.

Issuance slowed substantially in the second quarter and into the third quarter of 2024. We expect subdued activity for the rest of 2024 on the back of weakening supportive trends. Volumes are exposed to geopolitical risks and issuers may decide to wait for the result of the upcoming U.S. elections.

Chart 1

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Chart 2

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Higher interest rate levels limit household affordability

With the ECB's monetary policy pivot in 2022, the booming German real estate market has come to a sudden end. Residential house prices in Germany have fallen by 24% in real terms. Although residential real estate lending showed some signs of recovery in 2024, volumes remain subdued compared to pre-2022 reflecting higher interest rates limiting household affordability. In fact, the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks(vdp) recently published the second quarter 2024 loan commitments. Between April and June 2024, its member banks committed to new residential and CRE loans totaling €31.2 billion, a 15.6% year-on-year increase (€27.0 billion in the second quarter of 2023). Residential loan commitments sharply increased by more than 33% to €20.1 billion from €15.1 billion. These numbers are still lower than in 2021 and 2022. This demonstrates that lending activity is on the rise, supported by the recent decrease in interest rates.

Given the structurally conservative underwriting standards in Germany, we expect nonperforming loans in domestic residential mortgage lending to remain very low. German mortgage rates are usually fixed for 10-15 years and lenders typically demand 20%-30% equity, therefore the current interest rate environment has not directly affected current mortgage owners' debt servicing capacities (see chart 4).

Chart 3

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Chart 4

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German CRE remains in the spotlight

German banks have a relatively higher exposure to CRE. The sector's nominal prices have fallen by 18% since the early 2022 peak, especially for offices outside of prime locations and those with poorer energy efficiency. However, there are first signs of a stabilization of CRE prices as policy rates fall and investor activity might return slowly (see chart 5).

CRE exposure in German covered bond programs mainly comprises multifamily, office, and retail assets, but not all cover pool characteristics are the same. Based on publicly available information, German issuers seem to be most at risk from a severe correction in CRE prices. Some notable German issuers have experienced serious stress related to covered bond refinancing, mainly stemming from monoline issuers focusing on CRE assets with exposure to the U.S. market.

Despite the comparably large exposure to CRE, differences in foreign CRE exposure, and overcollateralization levels, the main German issuers continue to benefit from relatively low loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, resulting in stable funding rates. According to vdp, CRE assets--including retail and office--have increased by 3%, and multifamily housing by 7.6% from 2023 to 2024 (see "European Covered Bonds Resist Commercial Real Estate Jitters" published on Aug. 27, 2024).

Chart 5

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German CRE's scenario analysis

We tested different European covered bond programs from our rated universe, including Germany, with a CRE exposure above 40% including multifamily housing. We assumed different stresses, including for the office and retail segment a 10% higher market value decline (MVD) (compared to the 75% MVD in our criteria), higher refinancing costs, and an overall higher recovery time.

We concluded that under these stress scenarios our rated cover pools remain resilient, although a significantly longer recovery period could lead to higher overcollateralization commensurate with the covered bond rating for some issuers with shorter maturity profiles (see "European Covered Bonds Resist Commercial Real Estate Jitters" published on Aug. 27, 2024).

N-bonds a German specialty

Since peaking in 2014, the traditionally smaller segment of the market--the "Namenspfandbriefe" (N-bonds)--has reduced as a percentage of the total market. An N-bond is a covered bond or debt security, which, unlike a typical Pfandbrief or security, is unregistered. No records are kept of the owner or transactions involving ownership. The liquidity of such bonds is generally considered lower than a typical Pfandbrief, and investors have traditionally been buy-to-hold investors, such as life insurance companies. N-bonds have also proven particularly popular for public sector funding. The outstanding volume of public sector N-Bonds is declining, the volume of outstanding mortgage N-Bonds is increasing, which leads to a lower percentage of overall outstanding mortgage covered bonds. Although the normalization of interest rates has supported issuance, we think that the full curve will need to normalize to facilitate further issuance (see chart 6).

Chart 6

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Sustainable Covered Bonds

Germany-based banks are very active in green covered bond issuance with year-to-date benchmark issuances of €4 billion. Though 2024 issuance volumes are below the record years of 2023 with a total of €6.75 billion and 2022 with a total of €8.9 billion, investor demand has remained strong.

In July 2024, the vdp published an enhancement of the minimum standards for Green Mortgage Pfandbriefe and Green Public Pfandbriefe. The amendments will come into force from Jan. 1, 2025. Important changes are concerning the criteria for eligible assets for Green Mortgage Pfandbriefe:

  • For newly constructed properties, the property will have to have a primary energy requirement of at least 10% below the national standard for nearly zero energy buildings.
  • When financing existing residential properties, the property will need to fulfill all the requirements for the energy efficiency class A. Energy efficiency class B or better has been sufficient so far.
  • When financing existing commercial properties there is the requirement for the energy efficiency class A.

Blockchain--The Pfandbrief Embraces Innovation

In August 2024, Berlin Hyp became the first institute that has issued a Blockchain Covered Bond.

On Aug. 2, 2024, Berlin Hyp issued a €100 million covered bond based on the German Electronic Securities Act and blockchain technology. Berlin Hyp plays an active role in furthering the development of the crypto securities market.

The covered bond issuance is executed on a private and permissioned blockchain from SWIAT GmbH. Frankfurt-based SWIAT develops software for financial market infrastructures.

However, due to current legislation (eWpG) the Blockchain Pfandbrief is not ECB-eligible, therefore N-bonds may be more preferrable for blockchain covered bond issuances for now. The advantage of a digital issued compared with a traditional issued covered bond is still that transactions can be executed on the blockchain in real time, which also leads to some cost efficiency as costs for interim funding, paper documents, and manual processes are eliminated. We expect that other banks will follow suit.

Legal Framework

The German Covered Bond Act (Pfandbriefgesetz; "PfandBG") and the relevant secondary legislation provide the legal framework to issue German covered bonds. The PfandBG came into force in 2005 and has been amended several times.

In May 2021, Germany's Bundesrat approved amendments to the PfandBG, implementing the EU's Covered Bonds Directive effective since July 8, 2022. Cover pools are primarily secured by German residential and commercial mortgages and to a lesser extent public sector loans (approximately one third of the volume outstanding).

Chart 7

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Mortgage Market Overview: Modest Growth As Rates Fall

After a slightly negative GDP growth in 2023 of -0.1%, we forecast that the German economy will expand by 0.2% in 2024 (well below our forecast for the eurozone) and by 1.1% in 2025. Energy remains comparatively expensive in Germany, which is relevant given its industrial sector importance. Additionally, Germany's export-oriented economy remains more exposed to geopolitical risks.

Domestic credit relative to GDP is expected to increase modestly as corporates' and households' demand cooled on the back of higher interest rates and a modest economic outlook. However, Germany's private sector has entered the period from a strong position after years of improving financial metrics from solid economic growth.

We forecast inflation to recede gradually to 2.2% in 2025 from 2.7% in 2024 and to reach the 2.0% inflation rate that the ECB targets in 2026.

Though the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.4% in 2024 from 2023's all-time low of 3.0%, we expect it to revert to the 3.1%-3.3% range from 2025 onward.

Table 1

Economic indicators
Year Real GDP growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) Nominal house prices (%)
2022 1.4 3.1 (3.6)
2023 -0.1 3 (7.1)
2024f 0.2 3.4 (0.3)
2025f 1.1 3.3 0.5
2026f 1.3 3.1 2.0
2027f 1.1 3.1 2.0
f--Forecast. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Chart 8

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The property market could be entering a post-correction area

The rapid increase in interest rates has halted Germany's real estate market, with residential house prices falling by 7.1% in 2023 in nominal terms. We forecast house prices to fall by 0.3% in 2024, before rising by 0.5% in 2025 and 2.0% thereafter.

Overall, we expect the peak-to-trough decline of German residential house prices to be about 11% in nominal terms. German real estate prices in 2023 declined more than we forecast. This was despite the low share of variable-rate financing, a large population influx, the very tight labor market, and because of significant overvaluations during the pandemic (see "European Housing Markets: Better Days Ahead", published on July 17, 2024).

Foreclosures on immobile real estate decreased from 2007 until 2021 (see chart 9). The reasons for this trend included a longer period of solid economic growth and the continuous decrease of interest rates (refixing mortgages).

Although the interest rates picked-up rapidly from the beginning of 2022 and peaked in 2023, we only saw a slight increase in foreclosures from 2022 to 2023. There is some time lag since borrowers need to refinance their properties in the next months, which could mean that we might see some higher numbers in 2024. However, interest rates have already started to fall, which should support homeowners when refixing their existing mortgage loans.

Chart 9

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Chart 10

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Features Of German Covered Bond Programs

German covered bond legislation provides for dynamic cover pool management. This may affect the asset composition, the geographical focus of the assets, and the level of overcollateralization above the legal minimum, while issuers may utilize covered bonds more or less depending on their funding needs. Table 2 depicts the development of the top 10 issuers in Germany's covered bond market. It shows the evolution of outstanding bonds as the market has moved from covered bonds backed by public sector assets to mortgage assets. Moreover, the changes reflect consolidation in the market, with several mergers taking place since 2011.

Table 2

Comparison of top 10 issuers (Mil. €)
As of Q2 2024 As of Q2 2023 As of Q2 2021 As of Q3 2018 As of Q4 2011
Munchner Hypo Hypf 35,361.10 DZ HYP Hypf 33,694.0 DZ HYP Hypf 33,630.7 DZ HYP Hypf (prev. DG/WL Hyp Hypf) 28,390.4 LBBW Oepf 40,656.0
DZ Hyp Hypf 35,170.90 Munchner Hypo Hypf 33,461.0 Munchner Hypo Hypf 30,036.9 Munchner Hypo Hypf 23,159.2 Hypothekenbank Frankfurt Hypf 38,919.2
Commerzbank Hypf 30,631.20 Commerzbank Hypf 29,558.0 HELABA Oepf 28,721.9 Commerzbank Hypf 20,148.2 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Oepf 33,742.4
Unicredit Bank AG Hypf 26,778.60 Unicredit Bank AG Hypf 26,270.0 Unicredit Bank AG Hypf 22,127.3 Unicredit Bank AG Hypf 18,249.2 Dexia Kommunal Bank Oepf 32,746.0
HELABA Oepf 18,815.80 HELABA Oepf 22,081.0 Commerzbank Hypf 21,872.7 Bayern LB Oepf 17,752.0 Hypothekenbank Frankfurt Oepf 32,396.8
Berlin Hyp Hypf 17,935.2 Berlin Hyp Hypf 17,453.0 Bayern LB Oepf 18,998.4 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Hypf 16,066.0 Bayern LB Oepf 29,670.0
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Hypf 15,233.0 Bayern LB Oepf 15,345.0 Berlin Hyp Hypf 16,368.7 Nord LB Oepf 15,921.3 Unicredit Bank AG Hypf 25,431.5
Aareal Bank Hypf 14,610.5 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Hypf 15,120.0 Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Hypf 16,295.0 DZ HYP Oepf (prev. DG Hyp Oepf) 15,890.5 DG Hyp Oepf 23,379.9
LBBW Hypf 13,979.1 Deutsche Bank AG Hypf 13,625.0 DZ HYP Oepf 12,332.1 HELABA Oepf 15,020.5 Nord LB Oepf 19,811.0
Bayern LB Oepf 13,629.4 Aareal Bank Hypf 13,389.0 Commerzbank Oepf 12,172.9 Berlin Hyp Hypf 13,892.7 WL Bank Oepf 19,788.6
Total 222,144.8 Total 219,996.0 Total 212,556.6 184,490.0 296,541.4
Hypf--Mortgage. Oepf--Public sector. Q--Quarter.

Chart 11

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Comparison Of German Covered Bond Programs

Given the changing utilization of covered bonds and the cover pools' risk composition, overcollateralization levels have fluctuated. Generally, available overcollateralization has been high, but there are notable differences in 2024, with average available overcollateralization increasing compared to 2023 (see chart 12). This is because some programs' covered bonds were redeemed, while the asset balance increased or reduced proportionally less than the redeemed covered bonds.

Chart 12

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The majority of German covered bond issuers continue to include a higher share of German assets in their cover pools (see chart 13B). For 25 out of our observed 38 issuers (some issuers have both mortgage as well as public sector covered bonds outstanding) the share of German collateral in the cover pools is below or equal to 80%. However, we observe issuers with the lowest share of German collateral are now closer to their all-time low, or are below it. We perform our collateral support analysis using the respective criteria for the underlying asset type, while our resolution regime and jurisdictional support analysis reflects the issuer's jurisdiction.

The share of commercial assets varies significantly across issuers but on average remains stable at 40% overall in 2024 (see chart 13A). This shows that German issuers are continuing their support in the current turmoil on CRE mortgages. The current share of commercial mortgages in nearly all programs is lower than its highest level in the observed period. Only a few issuers have increased their exposure to CRE assets compared to 2023. Despite the comparably large exposure to CRE, differences in foreign CRE exposure, and overcollateralization levels, the main German issuers benefit from relatively low LTV ratios, resulting in stable funding rates.

Chart 13A

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Chart 13B

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Chart 14

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Ratings Outlook: Unused Notches Mitigate Bank Downgrade Risk

The German covered bonds that we rate are issued by highly rated issuers, which are the first recourse for bondholders. These allow most of our rated issuers' covered bonds to reach the 'AAA' rating based on jurisdictional support alone.

As a result, the majority of our rated German covered bond programs benefit from multiple unused notches of ratings uplift, which protect the ratings on the covered bonds if the issuer is downgraded.

Table 3

German covered bond programs --Key characteristics
German mortgage covered bond programs Long-term issuer credit rating Covered bond rating Outstanding covered bonds (mil. €)* Maturity profile Collateral type* Link to surveillance report Link to transaction update Outstanding assets (mil. €)* No. of loans* WA LTV (%)* WA seasoning (months)* Interest rate type* Repayment type* WAFF (%) WALS (%) Available credit enhancement (%) Target credit enhancement (%) 'AAA' credit risk (%) OC consistent with the current rating (%) Unused notches
Program
Wuestenrot Bausparkasse AG A-/Stable/A-1 AAA/Stable/-- 3,461.1 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 87.5% residential, 2.4% commercial, 10.1% substitute assets

Weustenrot Bausparkasse AG

Wuestenrot Bausparkasse AG - Mortgage

4,350.21 34,132 50.21 82.70 99.3% fixed, 0.7% floating 46.5% amortizing, 53.5% bullet/IO 22.09 23.37 22.65 19.80 15.77 16.78 3
DZ HYP AG - Mortgage Sector Program A+/Stable/A-1 AAA/Stable/A-1+ 35,170.9 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 57.0% residential, 40.3% commercial, 2.7% substitute assets

DZ HYP AG

DZ HYP AG - Mortgage

41,274.47 111,689 51.21 66.00 89.6% fixed, 10.4% floating 73.5% amortizing, 26.5% bullet/IO 19.75 29.25 17.35 6.57 6.57 6.57 4
Deutsche Apotheker-und Aerztebank eG A+/Stable/A-1 AAA/Stable/-- 4,206.6 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 76.8% residential, 17.5% commercial, 5.7% substitute assets

Deutsche Apotheker- und Aerztebank eG

Deutsche Apotheker- und Aerztebank eG - Mortgage

8,374.78 72,615 54.40 76.30 93.5% fixed, 6.5% floating 71.6% amortizing, 28.4% bullet/IO 27.07 33.97 100.28 8.16 8.16 8.16 4
Evangelische Bank eG A+/Stable/A-1 AAA/Stable/-- 112.0 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 90.6% commercial, 9.4% substitute assets N/A

Evangelische Bank eG - Mortgage

235.00 139 45.15 82.66 98.2% fixed, 1.8% floating 98.6% amortizing, 0.72% bullet/IO 100.00 45.04 270.44 264.33 86.65 86.65 4
German public sector covered bond programs Long-term issuer credit rating Covered bond rating Outstanding covered bonds (mil. €)* Program type Collateral type* Link to surveillance report Link to transaction update Outstanding assets (mil. €)* Public sector assets (%)* Scenario default rate (%)/scenario loss rate (%) Weighted-average cover pool rating Available credit enhancement (%) Target credit enhancement (%) 'AAA' credit risk (%) OC consistent with the current rating (%) Unused notches
Program
DZ Hyp - Public Sector Covered Bond program A+/Stable/A-1 AAA/Stable/-- 8,981.7 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 100% public sector

DZ HYP AG

DZ HYP AG - Public

11,490.76 100 17.66 A 27.93 7.33 5.76 5.76 4
NRW Bank AA/Stable/A-1+ AAA/Stable/-- 1,469.2 Hard bullet 100% public sector N/A

NRW Bank - Public

2,161.77 100 66.10 BB- 47.04 83.20 22.14 22.14 1
DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank A+/Stable/A-1 AA+/Stable/A-1+ 13,026.5 Hard bullet, extendable by up to 12 months subject to certain conditions 0.01% mortgages, 7.8% public sector, 0.9% substitute assets, 91.3% other N/A

DZ Bank AG - Public

33,617.60 8 N/A N/A 163.65 WH WH 2.77 2
Note: This table can be expanded on www.capitaliq.com to view all of the data presented in tables 2, 5, and 6, in one combined table. The data can also be exported to Microsoft Excel. *Except for Evangelische Bank, NRW Bank and DZ Bank, as reported by the issuer in the June 2024 HTT report. WA--Weighted-average. LTV--Loan-to-value. WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency. WALS--Weighted-average loss severity. N/A--Not applicable. WH--Withheld at the issuer's request. OC--Overcollateralization.

The most recent related transaction updates can be found on the "Global Covered Bond Insights Q3 2024" interactive deck under "Country Focus/Germany".

Transaction Updates/New Issue Reports

Related Criteria

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analysts:Andreas M Hofmann, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9314;
andreas.hofmann@spglobal.com
Natalie Swiderek, Madrid + 34 91 788 7223;
natalie.swiderek@spglobal.com
Casper R Andersen, Frankfurt + 49 69 33 999 208;
casper.andersen@spglobal.com

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