This report does not constitute a rating action.
Key Takeaways
- The uncertain shift in U.S. trade policy and the challenging economic landscape in Mexico have negatively affected prospects for investment, inflation, and consumption, which could ultimately pressure the Mexican corporate sector.
- Currently, tariffs do not have a direct impact on the companies we rate, since most are protected by the USMCA, but Mexican corporates will have to navigate weaker conditions and volatile industry dynamics.
- We expect no immediate rating actions given rated corporates generally show comfortable EBITDA and leverage headroom for the next 12 months.
- There is low refinancing risk on short-term debt maturities because of lean amortization schedules, which are concentrated among investment-grade entities.
S&P Global Ratings does not expect immediate rating actions on the Mexican corporate entities in its portfolio related to potential tariff scenarios that could pressure future growth and leverage prospects. Our assumptions are based on issuers' EBITDA headroom before weakening their credit worthiness (when compared to current rating levels) and supported by about 75% of our ratings on Mexican entities being on a stable or positive outlook.
Mexican Corporates Face Better Tariff Terms Than Previously Expected
In terms of applicable U.S. tariffs, we see better terms for Mexican goods than in our previous analysis (see "A 25% Tariff Would Create New Trade Challenges For Mexican Corporations," published Feb. 3, 2025, on RatingsDirect). Currently, United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA)-compliant products are protected against tariffs, while non-USMCA goods are subject to a 25% charge. Importantly, however, even finished vehicles that comply with USMCA are currently subject to a 25% tariff on the portion not produced in the U.S., while auto parts remain out of scope.
These conditions leave Mexico at an advantage compared to other U.S. trading partners because of preferential tariff treatment, when goods are USMCA compliant. However, Mexican corporates still face indirect risks such as:
- Weaker projected economic growth rates for Mexico and the U.S.;
- Higher inflation;
- Foreign exchange volatility;
- An expected decline in volume sales and exports;
- Substitution risk; and
- Complex negotiations for USMCA renewal in 2026.
S&P Global Ratings believes there is a high degree of unpredictability around policy implementation by the U.S. administration and possible responses--specifically with regard to tariffs--and the potential effect on economies, supply chains, and credit conditions around the world. As a result, our baseline forecasts carry a significant amount of uncertainty. As situations evolve, we will gauge the macro and credit materiality of potential and actual policy shifts and reassess our guidance accordingly (see our research here: spglobal.com/ratings).
Issuers Have EBITDA Headroom To Manage Indirect Risks
Ongoing uncertainty is undermining business confidence and creating unpredictability regarding foreign investments and growth prospects for Mexican corporate entities. This all comes as companies also navigate the complexities of trade policies, changing commercial dynamics (mainly the U.S.), and potential negative implications for their financial performance. We anticipate that direct and indirect effects could hamper growth and business performance, at least until we have more clarity on commercial dynamics between Mexico and the U.S.
Notably, the uncertain shift in U.S trade policy may disrupt the economic landscape. In their latest projections for Mexico, our economists forecast a 0.2% GDP contraction in 2025 and an almost 4.0% inflation rate (see "Global Macro Update: Seismic Shift In U.S. Trade Policy Will Slow World Growth," published May 1, 2025). This will hit Mexican corporates indirectly through weaker business performance.
Based on the expected leverage metrics for our rated corporates in 2025, we have projected the average EBITDA decline or debt increase that each industry can withstand before deviating from current financial risk profiles (see chart 1). Hypothetically, the decline in EBITDA could come from lower volume sales, higher inflation rates, increased operating costs, and/or reduced exports/sales to the U.S.
Rating headroom differs among industries and subsectors and is also influenced by each company’s blend of business models, operating resilience and strength, and leverage and financial stability. Even though economic conditions are not encouraging for 2025, we do not expect immediate rating actions in our portfolio because we see the Mexican corporate sector as well positioned. Most entities have maintained prudent financial policies, higher flexibility in capital expenditure or dividend distributions, and low short-term refinancing risk. Moreover, there are some mitigants to changing commercial dynamics with the U.S. related to vertical integration and USMCA-compliant products that reduce the negative effects of tariffs assigned to exports.
Chart 1
Leverage Metrics Will Remain Consistent With Current Financial Risk Profiles
In our opinion, leverage metrics will remain constant during the next 12 months for most corporate industries because:
- Most of the companies in our portfolio made significant investments in previous years, so we perceive appropriate installed capacity for current economic growth expectations, without further aggressive spending.
- We do not envision most corporates needing additional debt for the remainder of the year because of prudent financial policies (cancellation of dividend payments).
- Many industries have boosted cash generation through operating cost efficiencies, optimized production assets, and improved working capital management, among others, executed ahead of pressured conditions.
Chart 2
There Is Also Low Refinancing Risk On Short-Term Debt
Weaker economic and investment forecasts reduce the financial market’s appetite, which could limit refinancing options for Mexican corporates and increase spreads for speculative-grade rated entities. Across the universe of Mexican corporates with public debt in local and foreign currency (about $109 billion), only 13.4% of total outstanding borrowings mature in 2025, which represents low refinancing risk. Moreover, 40% of short-term debt maturities relate to investment-grade issuers like America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. (A-/Stable), Grupo Mexico S.A.B. de C.V. (BBB+/Stable), Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V. (not rated), among others, which we perceive to have ample access to financial markets, available committed credit lines, and refinancing plans currently in progress.
Chart 3
| Rated Mexican corporate entities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entity | Industry | Rating/Outlook | Downside debt to EBITDA ratio limit (x)* | 2025e debt to EBITDA ratio (x) | ||||||
| Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | BBB/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.7 | ||||||
| Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. | Commodity chemicals | BBB-/Stable/-- | 4.0 | 3.1 | ||||||
| America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. | Telecom & cable | A-/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 3.0 | 1.8 | ||||||
| ARCA Continental S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | mxAAA/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 0.5 | ||||||
| Axtel, S. A. B. de C.V. | Telecom & cable | BB-/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.5 | ||||||
| Banco Actinver, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero Actinver, Division Fiduciaria, Fideicomiso 1721 | Real estate investment trusts | BBB+/Stable/A-2 mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 6.0 | 3.2 | ||||||
| Becle, S. A. B. de C. V | Branded nondurables | BBB-/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. and subsidiary | Commodity chemicals | B/Negative/-- | 5.0 | 5.9 | ||||||
| CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V. | Building materials | BBB-/Stable/-- mxAA+/Stable/mxA-1+ | 3.0 | 2.8 | ||||||
| CIBANCO, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Trust F/00939 | Real estate investment trusts | BBB/WatchDev/-- | N/A | N/A | ||||||
| Coca-Cola Femsa, S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | A-/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/-- | 2.0 | 1.0 | ||||||
| Consorcio ARA, S.A.B de C.V. | Homebuilders & developers | mxAA-/Stable/-- | 1.5 | 0.4 | ||||||
| Controladora Mabe, S.A. de C.V. | Consumer durables | BBB/Stable/-- | 2.0 | 0.7 | ||||||
| Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V. | Real estate investment trusts | BBB-/Stable/-- | 7.5 | 4.4 | ||||||
| CYDSA, S.A.B. de C.V. | Commodity chemicals | BB/Stable/B | 3.0 | 2.1 | ||||||
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S. A. B. de C. V. | Retail & restaurants | BBB/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 2.5 | 1.3 | ||||||
| Envases Universales de Mexico, S.A.P.I. de C.V. | Containers & packaging | mxA+/Stable/-- | 2.5 | 1.9 | ||||||
| Ferrocarril Mexicano, S.A. de C.V. | Railroads & package express | mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 2.0 | 0.6 | ||||||
| Fomento Economico Mexicano, S. A. B. de C. V. | Retail & restaurants | BBB+/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 2.0 | 0.6 | ||||||
| Fresnillo, Plc | Metals & mining upstream | BBB/Negative/-- | 1.5 | 0.0 | ||||||
| GCC S.A.B. de C.V. | Building materials | BBB-/Stable/-- | 2.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| GMexico Transportes, S.A.B. de C.V. | Railroads & package express | mxAAA/Stable/-- | 2.0 | 0.9 | ||||||
| GRUMA, S.A.B. de C.V. | Agribusiness & commodity foods | BBB/Positive/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 2.0 | 1.3 | ||||||
| Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.P.I. de C.V. | Transportation cyclical | B+/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.3 | ||||||
| Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | BBB+/Negative/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 3.0 | 3.2 | ||||||
| Grupo Elektra S.A.B. de C.V. | Retail & restaurants | BB-/Negative/-- | 12.0%* | 16.1%* | ||||||
| Grupo GICSA S.A.B. de C.V | Real estate investment rrusts | mxB/Stable/-- | N/A | 7.1 | ||||||
| Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | mxAA/Stable/-- | 2.5 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Grupo Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. | Metals & mining upstream | BBB+/Stable/-- | 2.0 | 0.4 | ||||||
| Grupo Posadas, S. A. B. de C. V. | Leisure & sports | B/Stable/-- | 5.0 | 4.3 | ||||||
| Grupo Rotoplas S.A.B. de C.V. | Building materials | mxA+/Stable/-- | 2.5 | 2.3 | ||||||
| Grupo Televisa, S. A. B. | Telecom & cable | BBB/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.3 | ||||||
| Industrias Penoles, S. A. B. de C. V. | Metals & mining upstream | BBB/Negative/-- mxAAA/Negative/-- | 1.5 | 0.7 | ||||||
| Inmobiliaria Ruba, S.A. de C.V. | Homebuilders & developers | mxAA-/Stable/mxA-1+ | 1.5 | 0.6 | ||||||
| Kimberly-Clark de Mexico S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | A-/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+ | 1.5 | 0.9 | ||||||
| KUO, S.A.B. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | BB/Stable/-- mxA/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 1.7 | ||||||
| Metalsa S.A. de C.V. | Auto suppliers | BB+/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Mex Gas Supply S.L. | Commodity Traders | BBB/Stable/-- | 4.5 | 3.3 | ||||||
| Nemak, S.A.B. de C.V. | Auto suppliers | BB+/Negative/-- mxAA-/Negative/-- | 3.0 | 2.3 | ||||||
| Nueva Elektra del Milenio, S.A. de C.V | Retail & restaurants | BB-/Negative/-- | 12.0%* | 22.2%* | ||||||
| Operadora de Sites Mexicanos S.A.B. de C.V. | Telecom & cable | BB+/Stable/-- mxAA-/Stable/-- | 5.5 | 3.0 | ||||||
| Orbia Advance Corporation S.A.B. de C.V | Commodity chemicals | BBB-/Negative/A-3 mxAA/Negative/mxA-1+ | 4.0 | 3.1 | ||||||
| Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) | Oil & gas integrated, exploration & production | Local Currency BBB+/Stable/-- Foreign Currency BBB/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/mxA-1+/- | N/A | 9.1 | ||||||
| Sigma Alimentos, S.A. de C.V. | Branded nondurables | BBB/Stable/-- mxAAA/Stable/-- | 3.0 | 2.7 | ||||||
| Vinte Viviendas Integrales, S.A.B. de C.V. | Homebuilders & developers | BB-/Positive/-- mxA-/Positive/-- | 3.0 | 2.5 | ||||||
| Based on rated Mexican companies as of April 30, 2025. *For these entities, we consider funds from operations (FFO) to debt ratios (%). N/A--Not applicable. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||||
Related Research
- Global Macro Update: Seismic Shift In U.S. Trade Policy Will Slow World Growth, May 1, 2025
- A 25% Tariff Would Create New Trade Challenges For Mexican Corporations, Feb. 3, 2025
- Mexico's Corporate Sector Faces Low Refinancing Risk Of Near-Term Maturities, Report Says, Nov. 27, 2024
| Primary Contacts: | Humberto Patino, Mexico City 52-55-50814485; humberto.patino@spglobal.com |
| Camila Rojas, Mexico City 52-5550814504; camila.rojas@spglobal.com | |
| Secondary Contacts: | Claudia Sanchez, Mexico City 52-55-5081-4418; claudia.sanchez@spglobal.com |
| Fabiola Ortiz, Mexico City 52-55-5081-4449; fabiola.ortiz@spglobal.com | |
| Alexandre P Michel, Mexico City 52-55-5081-4520; alexandre.michel@spglobal.com |
No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-related publications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limited to, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.
To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.
S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process.
S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.spglobal.com/ratings (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.spglobal.com/usratingsfees.