Key Takeaways
- The U.S. media industry is a broadly diverse industry, with 86% of companies rated in the speculative-grade category. Companies, especially those at the lower end of speculative grade, are exposed to higher interest rates and rising secular pressures.
- We have taken negative rating actions on several legacy media companies because they have been experiencing weakening operating metrics.
- The ratings outlook for media issuers in the speculative-grade category is biased to the downside, with a concentration of negative outlooks in the 'CCC' category.
- We identified 10 media companies that have refinancing needs in 2024 and 2025 and 21 companies that have greater refinancing needs in 2026.
The U.S. media and entertainment industry is broadly diverse and extends beyond streaming, national TV, and film. In this commentary, we discuss our ratings outlook for the "other" media sectors, including cinema, digital marketing, local media (local TV, outdoor, and radio), music, talent agencies, and video gaming.
Some of these sectors are experiencing ratings tailwinds because of favorable secular trends. Other sectors, in particular legacy media, have been experiencing weakening operating metrics. All media companies have been hurt, to some degree, by higher interest rates. We have been taking negative rating actions in those sectors since 2022 such that a large percentage of ratings for those companies are in the 'CCC' category or have already been lowered to 'SD' or 'D' (selective default or default, respectively).
Given the number of companies rated in the 'CCC' category, we expect defaults in some of these sectors over the next 12 months will be elevated above the broader corporate rate. While a potential easing of interest rates this year could help some companies, many of these companies face industry secular and cyclical challenges that are unlikely to abate soon.
U.S. Media Sector Snapshot: Ratings Skewed To Lower Speculative Grade
The U.S. media and entertainment rated portfolio consists of 85 companies as of Jan. 26, 2024. Just 12 companies (14% of the total) have investment-grade ratings ('BBB-' or better), while 73 (86% of the total) have speculative-grade ratings ('BB+' or lower).
Chart 1
Of the 73 speculative-grade companies, 56 (77%) are at the low end of the speculative-grade category (rated 'B' or lower). This is not surprising because the media industry has historically had a higher percentage of companies rated at the low end of the ratings spectrum than the overall corporate universe. What is different today is that 23% of these speculative-grade companies are in the 'CCC' category. For the overall corporate universe, only 13% of speculative-grade companies are similarly rated.
Chart 2
'B' and 'CCC' category ratings
Ratings in the 'B' category, by nature, are more volatile than higher-rated categories. The 40 companies rated in the 'B' category are evenly distributed, with 12 rated 'B+', 14 rated 'B', and 14 rated 'B-'.
Chart 3
As will be discussed later in this commentary, we downgraded many companies over the last two years due to a number of factors including poor operating and financial performance as the result of industry secular and cyclical trends, as well as capital structures that weren't built for a higher interest rate environment.
A 'CCC' category rating indicates that a company's capital structure is likely unsustainable, in our view. We define the 'CCC' issuer credit rating as follows: "An obligation rated 'CCC' is currently vulnerable to nonpayment, and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the obligor is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation."
Outlook distribution
Our outlook bias for the industry is mostly negative: 59 companies (69% of the total) have stable outlooks, 16 (19%) have a negative outlook or are on CreditWatch with negative implications, while nine (11%) have a positive outlook or are on CreditWatch with positive implications.
Chart 4
An examination of the outlooks on the speculative-grade portion of the portfolio shows that the majority (64%) have a stable outlook, while 22% have a negative outlook. This includes companies rated in the 'CCC' category, which overwhelmingly have negative outlooks (12 of 17 companies). For the companies in the rating 'B' category, 78% have stable outlooks while negative and positive outlooks are evenly split (four are positive and four are negative).
Chart 5
Chart 6
Speculative-Grade Portfolio Reflects Two Years Of Negative Rating Actions
Today's ratings distribution for the U.S. media and entertainment industry is a result of two years of net negative ratings actions. From early 2022 and through the end of 2023, we have taken 80 negative rating actions including downgrades, negative outlook revisions, and negative CreditWatch listings. Over that two-year time period, we took 55 positive ratings actions including upgrades, positive outlook revisions, and positive CreditWatch listings. Of the positive actions, nine were actions taken following companies restructuring balance sheets (from 'SD'/'D'). Of the ratings downgrades, 14 were downgrades from the 'B' category to the 'CCC' category and 15 were downgrades from the 'CCC' category to 'SD'/'D'.
Many of our negative rating actions occurred between late summer 2022 and late spring 2023. These actions were taken as interest rates increased and remained elevated, capital markets closeed for most speculative-grade companies, and advertising spending (especially in legacy media) weakened and failed to improve.
Chart 7
Table 1
| U.S. media and entertainment rating actions | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 | ||||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | Two-year total | ||||||
| Total ratings upgrades | 18 | 17 | 35 | |||||
| Positive outlook actions | 12 | 8 | 20 | |||||
| Total positive actions | 30 | 25 | 55 | |||||
| Positive actions excluding upgrades from 'SD'/'D' | 28 | 18 | 46 | |||||
| Total ratings downgrades | 26 | 31 | 57 | |||||
| Negative outlook actions | 17 | 6 | 23 | |||||
| Total negative actions | 43 | 37 | 80 | |||||
| Total downgrades to 'CCC' category | 9 | 5 | 14 | |||||
| Total downgrades to 'SD'/'D' | 2 | 13 | 15 | |||||
| Note: Positive outlook actions include outlook revisions to positive from stable and positive CreditWatch placements. Negative outlook actions include outlook revisions to negative from stable and negative CreditWatch placements. Source: S&P Global Ratings. | ||||||||
Media Industry Maturities Pushed Out To 2026
We completed an extensive review of the capital structures of all U.S. media and entertainment companies with noninvestment-grade ratings. We estimate total outstanding debt (rated and unrated) is $154.8 billion for the 73 speculative-grade rated companies. Largely as a result of refinancing at favorable rates in 2020 and 2021, most companies don't have significant debt maturities until 2026.
We estimate that in aggregate only $2.8 billion of debt will come due in 2024 (including debt amortization payments and maturing revolving credit facilities) and $7.5 billion in 2025. In 2026 and 2027, we estimate total debt maturities for speculative-grade companies will be $36.3 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively.
Our review has identified a number of companies that have financing needs in 2024 and 2025 and several with greater financing needs in 2026. We believe many can address these upcoming maturities through cash balances and free cash flow generation or well-earned access to the capital markets; however, others will struggle to adequately address their maturities. Table 2 is a selected list of companies with significant upcoming maturities (one to two years), which may result in refinancing challenges or ratings pressure. Table 3 is a list of companies with significant 2026 maturities.
Chart 8
Table 2
| Companies with refinancing needs in 2024 and 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Rating/Outlook | Debt maturities (current amount outstanding) | Comment |
|
AMC Networks Inc. |
B+/Stable | $800 million senior secured notes due 2025 | Could use significant cash on hand and revolver capacity to address debt maturity. |
|
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $140 million in maturities | Has cash to address maturities. |
|
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. |
CCC+/Stable | $375 million senior secured notes due 2025 | Could use current cash and proceeds from potential asset sales to address maturities. |
|
Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. |
BB-/Positive | $2.2 billion secured term loan due 2025 | We expect capital structure to be addressed after completion of review of strategic alternatives/take-private. |
|
Hubbard Radio LLC |
CCC+/Negative | $241 million secured term loan due 2025 | Could face difficulty refinancing if it is unable to significantly reduce its leverage, which would likely require further debt reduction and a recovery in broadcast radio. |
|
LendingTree Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $284 million convertible notes due 2025 | Could potentially struggle to refinance if it cannot decrease leverage or if it has to do so at a significantly higher interest rate that could pressure its FOCF to debt coverage. We expect that LendingTree will continue to pursue sub-par debt exchanges. |
|
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. |
B/Stable | $820 million secured term loan due 2025 and $540 million production loans | We expect term loan to be addressed after the completion of spin-off. Production loans will be repaid from cash flow from specific projects backing the loan. |
|
National Amusements Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $225 million secured term loan with $38 million amortization payment in 2024 | Liquidity pressure remains. Company will need to sell assets or use shares to manage near-term liquidity needs. |
|
Quad/Graphics Inc. |
B+/Stable | $150 million secured term loan A due in 2024 | Company has cash and liquidity sources to pay down near-term maturities and amortization payments. |
|
Screenvision LLC |
CCC+/Negative | $165 million secured term loan and revolver due in 2024 | Ability to address 2025 maturities will depend heavily on any recovery in advertising and box office. |
Table 3
| Select companies with 2026 debt maturities | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Rating/Outlook | Debt maturities (amount outstanding as of Sept. 30, 2023) | Comment |
|
AMC Networks Inc. |
B+/Stable | $464 million term loan A due in 2026 | Company will need to manage declining linear TV ecosystem and continue to generate cash flow to manage or extend maturity. |
|
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. |
CCC+/Stable | $2.9 billion in maturities due in 2026 | Will need to improve operating performance and generate sustained cash flow to refinance its large maturities in 2026. |
|
Beasley Broadcast Group Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $287 million secured notes | Faces refinancing risk given currently elevated leverage and negative FOCF. |
|
Centerfield Media Parent Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $785 million secured notes | Could face difficulty refinancing if it is unable to significantly reduce its leverage, which would likely require further debt reduction and a recovery in digital advertising. |
|
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. |
CCC+/Stable | $1.3 billion secured term loan | Positive industry tailwinds and track record of proactive balance sheet management support future refinancing ability. |
|
CMG Media Corp. |
B/Negative | $2.1 billion secured term loan | Company could face refinancing risk if it does not use all of its excess cash balance and expected FOCF (including political revenue in 2024) toward debt repayment. |
|
College Parent L.P. |
B-/Stable | $421 million secured term loan | Could use current cash balance to address maturity, but cash could be directed toward shareholder returns instead. |
|
Cumulus Media Inc. |
B-/Stable | $330 million secured term loan, $346 million secured notes | Company could face refinancing risk if it does not use all of its excess cash balance and expected FOCF to reduce debt in advance of refinancing. |
|
Deluxe Corp. |
B/Stable | $500 million revolver ($233 million outstanding at 3Q23) & $937 million first lien term loan due June 2026 | DLX has sufficient cash flow and liquiidty to service annnual amortization and interest expense but will need to refinance ahead of its 2026 maturities. Will likely need to begin refinancing a year ahead of maturity due to secular decline. |
|
Digital Media Solutions Inc. |
CCC/Negative | $53 million revolver, $233 million secured term loan | Absent significant performance improvement, we believe it is likely DMS will need to restructure its debt obligations after its PIK period expires on June 30, 2024. |
|
Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. |
BB-/Positive | $2.7 billion secured term loan due 2026 | Expect capital structure to be addressed after completion of review of strategic alternatives/take-private. |
|
E.W. Scripps Co. (The) |
B+/Negative | $340 million borrowed on revolver, $731 million secured term loan | Company could face refinancing risk if it does not use all of its excess cash balance and expected FOCF (including political revenue in 2024) toward debt repayment. |
|
Gray Television Inc. |
B+/Stable | $700 million unsecured notes | Could use expected proceeds from BMI stake, cash flow from political revenue in 2024, and RCF availability to address note maturity. |
|
iHeartMedia Inc. |
B/Negative | $2.3 billion secured term loan, $800 million secured notes | Company could face refinancing risk if it does not use all of its proceeds from BMI stake, its excess cash balance, and expected FOCF (including political revenue in 2024) to reduce debt in advance of refinancing. |
|
Magnite Inc. |
B+/Stable | $275 million convertible debt | Has sufficient cash and operating performanc to pay or refinance maturity |
|
NEP/NCP Holdco Inc. |
B-/Stable | $2.1 billion secured term loan due 2026 | Company will need to continue growing and generate sustained cash flow as capex decreases or it could have challenges refinancing its debt. |
|
Photo Holdings LLC |
CCC+/Stable | $277.5 million revolver (fully drawn) due 2026, $6.341 million first lien term loans due 2026, $2.744 million 8.5% Senior Secured Notes due 2026 | Fourth quarter results will determine the outlook for the company over the next 12 months; this is usually the quarter where they generate nearly all of their cash flow to suport the first three quarters. They did a distressed exchange in June 2023. |
|
Salem Media Group Inc. |
CCC/WatchPos | $20 million borrowed on asset-based lending facility | Could use expected asset sale proceeds to repay borrowings. |
|
Skillz Inc. |
CCC+/Negative | $130 million secured notes | Faces refinancing risk given currently elevated leverage and negative FOCF. |
|
Stagwell Inc. |
BB-/Stable | $412 million revolver due 2026 | Cash flow and operating performance will likely allow company to manage its revolver balance or extend it. |
|
Vericast Corp. |
CCC/Negative | $2 billion maturities due 2026 | Material operating and cash flow peformance improvement needed to address maturities. |
The Year Ahead: Our Forecasts For The Media Sector
Advertising agencies
The rating outlook for advertising agencies is stable. Advertising agencies continue to benefit from the increasing complexity of the advertising ecosystem that makes them more integral to advertisers. Additionally, we expect global advertising will improve in 2024, which will help fuel renewed growth for the industry. Despite these positive factors, the industry remains highly competitive, and we expect the large global advertising agencies to continue to aggressively compete for client wins, which will continue to pressure pricing in the industry.
The advertising ecosystem has become much more complicated, with digital media advertising requiring a sophisticated and data-driven approach to more frequent, flexible, and targeted campaigns. This complexity will continue benefitting ad agencies that have the expertise and global scale to execute. We also expect agencies with well-diversified client bases to be better positioned to weather volatility in marketing spend across different industries.
Digital marketing
The ratings outlook for the digital media and marketing industry in 2024 is negative for most companies due to their small scale and concentrations in pressured customer industry verticals such as mortgages, insurance, and retail (although to a lesser extent), which remain adversely impacted by weak macroeconomic conditions and low consumer demand.
We expect these companies will continue to face strained liquidity over the next 12 months as segment advertising spending remains depressed (unlike overall advertising spending) and elevated interest rates weaken free operating cash flow (FOCF), thereby increasing the potential for distressed transactions. However, the ratings outlook remains stable for a select number of larger digital media companies with more diversified businesses and stronger balance sheets prior to the current advertising recession. We believe these stronger operating metrics will help these companies weather near-term pressures on earnings amid a weak macroeconomic environment.
Independent film and TV studios
Our near-term outlook on film and TV studios that are not associated with a diversified media company or streaming service is neutral. The TV bubble deflated early in 2023 as the streaming services pulled back on content production budgets. The spending was further reset by the lengthy Hollywood writers and actors guild strikes that shuttered most original content creation in Hollywood.
For the last four years, the independent studios benefitted from unfettered spending by the streaming services but must now adjust to lower spending, fewer projects, and smaller budgets. We believe that demand for unscripted programming may be less affected by this change, which may benefit studios that focus on the genre.
Live events
Our ratings outlook for live events operators is stable. We believe demand for live events will remain strong into 2024 as consumer preference for entertainment shifts to experiential from passive forms of entertainment, such as television and film, and artist supply remains healthy. In addition, we expect demand for live events will sustain its current levels because the average cost of attending a live show remains significantly lower relative to other forms of entertainment like live sporting events or travel.
Still, the live events industry relies heavily on consumer discretionary spending and the industry is susceptible to a weaker macroeconomic environment if consumer discretionary spending decreased. We recently raised our ratings on Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (to BB-/Stable/-- from B+/Positive/--) and NASCAR Holdings LLC (to BBB/Stable/-- from BB+/Positive/--).
Local TV
The ratings outlook for the local TV industry in 2024 is stable. This reflects our expectations for record political advertising spending given the upcoming U.S. presidential election. We also expect retransmission revenue will grow in the low-single-digit percent area as negotiated price increases during contract renewals continue to offset subscriber churn, albeit at a slowing rate.
Growth from these revenue streams will more than offset expectations for core advertising revenue declines of 2% in 2024 given ongoing pressure in large markets as national advertisers continue to hold back spending amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, and meaningful crowd-out from political advertising in the second half of 2024.
Music
The ratings outlook for the music industry is stable. Still, we expect the industry will continue growing primarily from streaming growth as a combination of increased penetration in emerging markets and further opportunities to raise prices extends the runway for growth over the next several years.
Licensing agreements with social media and gaming companies also present additional revenue growth opportunities. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) can be a double-edged sword in that it could transform music creation, marketing, and personalized recommendations, opening doors for innovation and additional revenue opportunities in the industry; at the same time, it could create risk for unlicensed use of music portfolios to power generative AI platforms.
Outdoor advertising
The ratings outlook for the outdoor advertising sector is stable. Local advertising held up better than national advertising in 2023, and we expect this trend will continue through the first half of 2024. We expect an improvement in national advertising in the second half of 2024 will lead to a step up in the industry's growth. The industry's conversion to digital billboards from static reduces the time needed to place an ad, allowing companies to quickly book business as economic conditions improve. At the same time, we continue to believe outdoor advertising remains an attractive way to reach consumers given its captive audience of drivers, commuters, and pedestrians.
Radio
The ratings outlook for the radio sector in 2024 is negative. Leverage among radio companies remains elevated, and cash flow is depressed given weak advertising trends over the last 18 months. In addition, there is limited visibility into the timing and magnitude of an improvement in radio advertising (we currently expect improvement the second half of 2024 amid improving macroeconomic conditions). Additionally, several broadcast radio companies have sizeable debt maturities in the first half of 2026.
We have taken several negative rating actions over the last 18 months but could take additional negative actions if a recovery in broadcast radio advertising is delayed beyond the second half of 2024 or is weaker than we expect. For example, if we expect credit metrics will remain weak for a prolonged period or there is increased refinancing risk associated with upcoming debt maturities, we could take negative rating actions.
Talent agencies
The ratings outlook for talent agencies is moderately positive. We view the actors and writers strike in the second half of 2023 as likely just a bump in the road, and we expect talent agency revenues to recover within the first half of 2024 as productions ramp back up and represented talent return to work.
While the outcome of the strike would result in higher earned income for talent, and in turn higher commissioned revenues for the agencies, we also expect video streaming services to reduce the size of its libraries, which could lower overall residuals, potentially offsetting the benefit of the higher revenues. We continue to expect the rate of content spending growth to moderate as major media companies aim to bring their streaming services to profitability; however, we expect the level of content spending to remain elevated compared to historical levels.
Theater exhibitors
The ratings outlook for theater exhibitors is slightly negative. We forecast domestic box office results will decline around 10% in 2024 resulting from film production and marketing delays caused by the writers' and actors' strikes. We believe exhibitors with well-positioned balance sheets will be able to comfortably weather the contraction, while others will continue to struggle to generate free cash flow.
The disruption to the movie slate may continue into 2025, as studios struggle to align production schedules. We expect concessions per patron and ticket pricing will both continue their upward trends as exhibitors continue to invest in more premium offerings. We recently upgraded Cinemark Holdings Inc. to BB-/Stable/-- from B+/Positive/-- due to improved leverage.
Video gaming
The rating outlook for video game publishers remains neutral to modestly positive. We expect modest growth for the video game industry in 2024 as positive secular trends for engagement and monetization remain in place. However, overall industry growth will be impacted by ongoing consumer headwinds that have been more prominent for the mobile gaming segment of the industry, which relies more on consumer discretionary and advertising related spending than console gaming. Most rated issuers have modest leverage, and we believe they can weather any prolonged consumer weakness if it persists into 2024.
Related Research
- Industry Credit Outlook 2024: Media and Entertainment, Jan. 9, 2024
- SLIDES: U.S. Media And Entertainment Industry: Key 2024 Themes And Concerns, Jan. 3, 2024
- U.S. Advertising Forecast Powered By Digital, Jan. 2, 2024
- Credit Conditions North America Q1 2024: A Cluster Of Stresses, Nov. 28, 2023
- Economic Outlook U.S. Q1 2024: Cooling Off But Not Breaking, Nov. 27, 2023
- Assessing The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates On U.S. Media And Entertainment Companies Rated 'B-', Jan. 9, 2023
This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Primary Credit Analyst: | Naveen Sarma, New York + 1 (212) 438 7833; naveen.sarma@spglobal.com |
| Secondary Contacts: | Rose Oberman, CFA, New York + 1 (212) 438 0354; rose.oberman@spglobal.com |
| Cody M La Grange, CFA, New York + 1 (212) 438 0204; cody.la.grange@spglobal.com | |
| Oliver Vandestouwe, Des Moines + 312-233-7033; oliver.vande.stouwe@spglobal.com | |
| Jawad Hussain, Chicago + 1 (312) 233 7045; jawad.hussain@spglobal.com | |
| Dylan S Singh, New York + 1 (212) 438 1095; dylan.singh@spglobal.com |
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