Key Takeaways
- Despite low levels of unemployment, certain prime auto loan asset-backed security (ABS) issuers are reporting higher-than-expected cumulative net losses (CNLs) on their pools.
- We believe that some of the deterioration is due to the increasing proportion of pooled loans for which obligors have a payment-to-income (PTI) ratio of greater than 10%.
- While industry advice has been to not spend more than 10% of one's take-home pay on a car payment, faster growth in new and used vehicle prices relative to income since prior to the pandemic, coupled with higher interest rates, have led to a growing share of consumers facing reduced affordability on their auto loans.
- Rating downgrades have so far been avoided, but that could change if losses rise sufficiently.
As reported in S&P Global Ratings' full-year auto loan tracker (see "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 13, 2025), the prime auto loan ABS segment is experiencing deteriorating performance on more recent vintages, specifically the 2023 vintage and first-half 2024 vintages. While most issuers are experiencing a normalization in performance back to pre-pandemic loss levels, some finance companies are reporting significantly more deterioration. To determine what might be driving the higher losses, we examined four of these companies by drilling down into the loan-level data they report in their monthly ABS-EE reports filed with the SEC (as per Reg AB II). We believe one of the contributing factors is higher PTI ratios, which speaks to the reduced affordability of vehicle ownership given rising vehicle prices and higher annual percentage rates (APRs).
As noted in a recent Wall Street Journal article, "Cars Were Already Unaffordable Before Tariffs," published April 3, 2025, industry advice is to not spend more than 10% of one's take home pay on a car payment. However, with the shortage of new vehicles in 2021-2022 due to supply chain issues, prices for both new and used vehicles rose sharply. While new vehicle prices declined slightly in 2024 and used vehicle prices decreased in both 2023 and 2024, their costs remained above pre-pandemic levels. Given higher interest rates beginning in 2022, the retreat in vehicle prices hasn't offered much relief. As a result, monthly payments for new and used vehicles have risen approximately 30% since before the pandemic, (see "SF Credit Brief: Inflation And Affordability Challenges Remain For Consumers Despite Low Unemployment," published March 19, 2025). In addition, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, auto insurance rates rose 18% on average in 2024, following a 17% increase in 2023.
Study Background: Four Companies
The four companies in our study are Mercedes Benz, Carvana's prime issuances, CarMax, and Volkswagen (VW). As evidenced in charts 1-3, Mercedes, VW, and CarMax are reporting higher defaults on their 2023 and 2024-1 transactions relative to their pre-pandemic transactions (in either 2017 or 2018). We started rating Carvana's prime shelf in only 2020, but it is similarly showing deterioration for its 2023 and early 2024 issuances relative to 2020 (chart 4).
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Growth In Loans With Higher PTI Ratios Contributing To Weakening Performance
The growth in loans with higher PTI ratios seems to be one of the characteristics shared among the four issuers that is driving the weakening performance for the 2023 and certain 2024 transactions. Mercedes, VW, CarMax, and Carvana have increased the percentage of loans with PTIs greater than 10% in their 2023 and certain 2024 pools, and these loans have had a disproportion share of charge-offs.
Mercedes Benz
For Mercedes, the percentage of loans with PTI ratios of greater than 10% rose to approximately 30% (based on number of loans and not dollars--our analysis on a dollar basis yielded similar results) for its 2024-1 transaction, compared to 17% for 2018-1 (see charts 5 and 6). Additionally, while these higher PTI ratio loans grew to about 30% for 2024-1, approximately 43% of the total charge-offs in the pool to date (through February 2025) have come from these loans. In other words, a disproportionally high percentage of charge-offs is coming from loans with PTI ratios greater than 10%.
Mercedes' higher default rates also stem from its expansion into a wider swath of the consumer market, as evidenced by a dramatic reduction in the amount of subvention it was providing to 11% for 2024-1 from 91% for 2018-1 (see table 1).
While we've revised our losses upward on several of Mercedes' auto loan ABS, the ratings have remained stable (see table 1). Their outstanding transactions include only class A notes. Over time, the floors to the overcollateralization and reserve account have increased as a percentage of the outstanding receivables and have allowed the credit enhancement to build, thereby providing an adequate multiple of coverage of remaining losses to maintain the 'AAA' ratings.
Chart 5
Chart 6
Table 1
| Mercedes-Benz auto loan ABS collateral characteristics | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | WA orig. financed amount ($) | WA APR (%) | WA FICO | % of loans with PTIs greater than 10% | FICO < 700 (%) | Subvened (%) | Orig. ECNL (%)(i) | Most recent revised ECNL (%) | ||||||||||
| 2018-1 | 40,453 | 3.39 | 768 | 16.74 | 18.17 | 91 | 0.60 | Paid off 0.42 | ||||||||||
| 2019-1 | 41,111 | 3.71 | 773 | 17.43 | 16.19 | 94 | 0.60 | Paid off 0.34 | ||||||||||
| 2020-1 | 41,503 | 3.82 | 777 | 17.72 | 14.07 | 91 | 1.00 | Paid off 0.25 | ||||||||||
| 2021-1 | 45,688 | 3.59 | 770 | 22.56 | 17.67 | 70 | 0.65 | 0.65 | ||||||||||
| 2022-1 | 51,156 | 4.40 | 761 | 24.94 | 21.11 | 39 | 0.65 | 1.70 | ||||||||||
| 2023-1 | 52,741 | 4.85 | 759 | 26.16 | 21.84 | 33 | 0.65 | 1.90 | ||||||||||
| 2023-2 | 58,974 | 7.07 | 752 | 29.92 | 23.80 | 15 | 1.20 | 2.10 | ||||||||||
| 2024-1 | 61,314 | 7.74 | 754 | 29.55 | 22.38 | 11 | 1.30 | 2.15 | ||||||||||
| (i)When ECNL is less than 80 bps, we apply our stress rating multiples to a minimum CNL of 80 bps. ABS--Asset-backed securities. WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. PTI--Payment to income. ECNL--Expected cumulative net loss. Bps--Basis points. | ||||||||||||||||||
Volkswagen
A similar analysis for the Volkswagen 2023-2 transaction shows that the percentage of loans in the pool with a PTI greater than 10% grew to 31% from 21% for 2018-1. For the 2023-2 pool, those higher PTI ratio loans have represented 58% of the total defaults. For the 2018-1 transaction, the loans with PTI ratios greater than 10% have represented only 45% of the defaults.
As with Mercedes, VW Credit Inc. (VCI) has attributed some of the increase in defaults on its 2023 pools to the reduced amount of subvention offered on vehicles sold in 2022 and early 2023 due to the shortage of vehicles. This increased the average amount financed and APRs, thereby impacting borrowers' ability to pay. According to management, weaker performance has also been due to it taking longer to repossess and liquidate vehicles, which has led to more full-balance charge-offs without the respective recoveries. Given the company's 90-day delinquency (DQ) charge-off definition in its documents, this is potentially leading to a front-loading of cumulative net losses relative to other issuers who have longer charge-off policies. Additionally, VCI had operated with a lean collection staff during 2021 and 2022 and wasn't immediately prepared to handle the increased collection activities necessary in 2023. According to management, VCI has taken actions to rectify the above situations and believes that is adequately staffed.
The increase in our expected CNLs on VCI's 2023-1 transaction (see table 2) has not resulted in negative rating actions on its transactions due to their deleveraging. The 2023-1 transaction included the issuance of only class A notes, all rated 'AAA' or 'A-1+'.
Chart 7
Chart 8
Table 2
| Volkswagen Auto Loan Enhanced Trust collateral characteristics | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | WA remaining amount ($) (seasoning months) | WA APR (%) | WA FICO | % of loans with PTIs greater than 10% | FICO <= 700 (%) | Subvened (%) | Orig. ECNL (%)(i) | Most recent revised ECNL (%) | ||||||||||
| VALET 2018-1 | 20,852 (12) | 3.33 | 774 | 21.30 | 15.29 | 96 | 0.80-0.90 | Up to 0.80 | ||||||||||
| VALET 2018-2 | 21,577 (10) | 3.77 | 774 | 21.79 | 14.50 | 97 | 0.80-0.90 | Up to 0.75 | ||||||||||
| VALET 2020-1 (NR) | 22,357 (9) | 4.46 | 772 | 22.62 | 15.74 | 91 | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||
| VALET 2021-1 | 25,380 (10) | 2.98 | 777 | 24.74 | 12.89 | 77 | 0.85-0.95 | 0.70 | ||||||||||
| VALET 2023-1 | 34,136 (10) | 4.83 | 768 | 30.98 | 14.77 | 71 | 0.95 | 2.00 | ||||||||||
| VALET 2023-2 (NR) | 30,864 (10) | 5.69 | 770 | 31.49 | 14.80 | 82 | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||
| VALET 2024-1 | 30,679 (8) | 4.67 | 776 | N/A | 12.34 | N/A | 1.90 | N/A | ||||||||||
| (i)When ECNL is less than 80 bps, we apply our stress rating multiples to a minimum CNL of 80 bps. VALET--Volkswagen Auto Loan Enhanced Trust. WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. PTI--Payment to income. ECNL--Expected cumulative net loss. Bps--Basis points. NR--Not rated. N/A--Not applicable. | ||||||||||||||||||
CarMax
The percentage of obligors with PTI ratios greater than 10% for CarMax's 2023-2 pool increased to 28% and have represented 51% of the defaults. Meanwhile, obligors with that level of PTI ratio were only 21% of the 2017-2 pool and have represented 42% of the defaults to date. Even with the revised expected cumulative net losses (ECNLs) on CarMax's 2022 and 2023 transactions, these have not incurred downgrades due to deleveraging.
CarMax's more recent transactions, beginning with 2024-3, have included a much lower percentage of loans with PTIs greater than 10% as well as fewer loans with FICOs less than 700. The lower risk associated with these pools is reflected in the lower weighted average APR and the reduction in our original ECNL relative to the 2024-2 and earlier pools.
Chart 9
Chart 10
Table 3
| CarMax Auto Owner Trust collateral characteristics | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | WA orig. financed amount ($) | WA APR (%) | WA FICO | % of loans with PTIs greater than 10% | FICO <= 700 (%) | Orig. ECNL (%)(i) | Most revised ECNL (%) | |||||||||
| 2017-2 | 18,900 | 7.21 | 708 | 21.33 | 50.22 | 2.15-2.25 | Paid off 1.93 | |||||||||
| 2017-3 | 18,913 | 7.58 | 704 | 22.93 | 52.33 | 2.15-2.25 | Paid off 1.85 | |||||||||
| 2017-4 | 18,962 | 7.46 | 709 | 21.76 | 49.75 | 2.15-2.25 | Paid off 1.66 | |||||||||
| 2018-1 | 19,313 | 7.54 | 707 | 22.38 | 50.45 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.63 | |||||||||
| 2018-2 | 19,450 | 7.69 | 707 | 22.48 | 50.65 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.70 | |||||||||
| 2018-3(i) | 16,562 | 7.99 | 706 | 23.95 | 50.60 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.75 | |||||||||
| 2018-4 | 19,378 | 8.27 | 706 | 23.13 | 50.59 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.64 | |||||||||
| 2019-1 | 19,627 | 8.43 | 706 | 23.53 | 50.84 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.66 | |||||||||
| 2019-2 | 19,652 | 8.51 | 707 | 23.36 | 50.28 | 2.15-2.25 | Paid off 1.47 | |||||||||
| 2019-3 | 19,593 | 8.59 | 705 | 24.46 | 51.25 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.40 | |||||||||
| 2019-4(i) | 16,488 | 8.63 | 705 | 24.50 | 51.24 | 2.20-2.30 | Paid off 1.33 | |||||||||
| 2020-1 | 20,138 | 8.04 | 710 | 23.27 | 48.75 | 2.15-2.25 | Paid off 1.22 | |||||||||
| 2020-2(i) | 15,271 | 7.74 | 715 | 22.42 | 45.73 | 2.80-3.00 | Paid off 0.96 | |||||||||
| 2020-3(i) | 15,230 | 7.77 | 714 | 23.38 | 46.26 | 2.80-3.00 | Paid off 1.15 | |||||||||
| 2020-4 | 19,496 | 7.87 | 713 | 25.72 | 48.60 | 2.80-3.00 | Paid off 1.09 | |||||||||
| 2021-1 | 20,316 | 8.25 | 711 | 28.00 | 49.71 | 2.65-2.85 | Paid off 1.48 | |||||||||
| 2021-2 | 19,959 | 7.82 | 708 | 23.66 | 48.75 | 2.35-2.45 | 1.45 | |||||||||
| 2021-3 | 20,002 | 8.24 | 706 | 27.42 | 50.00 | 2.15-2.25 | 2.20 | |||||||||
| 2021-4(i) | 21,026 | 8.32 | 704 | 31.57 | 51.53 | 2.15-2.25 | 2.40 | |||||||||
| 2022-1(i) | 18,592 | 8.14 | 707 | 29.70 | 49.41 | 2.15-2.25 | 2.55 | |||||||||
| 2022-2 | 24,002 | 7.80 | 711 | 29.11 | 46.77 | 2.15-2.25 | 2.70 | |||||||||
| 2022-3 | 24,348 | 8.28 | 710 | 30.09 | 47.52 | 2.20-2.30 | 3.10 | |||||||||
| 2022-4 | 24,489 | 8.84 | 713 | 29.25 | 45.66 | 2.20-2.30 | 3.25 | |||||||||
| 2023-1 | 24,926 | 9.09 | 714 | 28.48 | 45.81 | 2.25-2.35 | 3.40 | |||||||||
| 2023-2 | 24,287 | 9.57 | 716 | 27.82 | 44.64 | 2.25-2.35 | 3.40 | |||||||||
| 2023-3(i) | 19,902 | 10.38 | 717 | 28.72 | 45.01 | 2.30 | 3.50 | |||||||||
| 2023-4 | 24,079 | 10.71 | 718 | 28.61 | 44.28 | 2.30 | 3.40 | |||||||||
| 2024-1 | 23,966 | 10.90 | 719 | 28.15 | 43.83 | 2.35 | N/A | |||||||||
| 2024-2 | 23,827 | 11.02 | 721 | 26.61 | 43.02 | 2.40 | N/A | |||||||||
| 2024-3(i) | 19,655 | 9.53 | 758 | 21.39 | 23.70 | 1.30 | N/A | |||||||||
| 2024-4(i) | 19,562 | 9.66 | 758 | 20.54 | 22.74 | 1.30 | N/A | |||||||||
| (i)Weighted average remaining amount. WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. PTI--Payment to income. ECNL--Expected cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable. | ||||||||||||||||
Carvana
As used vehicle prices and interest rates rose, Carvana similarly saw an increase in obligors with higher PTI ratios. For its 2022-P3 pool, customers with PTI ratios greater than 10% increased to 32%, up from 26% for 20-P1; to date, the percentage of defaults in the pool coming from these obligors is 50% for 2022-P3, compared to 44% for 2020-P1. We did not include loan-level performance for Carvana's 2023 through 2024-1 transactions because all of these were 144a transactions with no data availability.
Despite the significant upward adjustment in our ECNLs for their 2022 through 2024-1 transactions, these increases have not at this time led to downgrades, in part due to deleveraging. In addition, reflecting the availability of actual pool performance and shorter time to maturity, our stressed-case losses as a multiple of our revised base-case losses is slightly lower than the multiples used at the time of issuance.
Beginning in August 2022, the company launched a co-signer program, which was rolled out in response to industry-wide affordability challenges; according to the company, it has proven to be successful in terms of customer adoption and loan performance. Because of this program, the percentage of loans with PTIs greater than 10% declined for its 2024-P2 and 2024-P3 transactions to 26.25% and 26.88%, respectively, from 32%-34% in earlier pools.
Chart 10
Chart 11
Table 4
| Carvana prime auto loan ABS collateral characteristics | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | WA PTI ratio (%) | WA orig. financed amount ($) | WA APR (%) | WA FICO | % of loans with PTIs greater than 10% | FICO < 700 (%) | Orig. ECNL (%) | Most recent revised ECNL (%) | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2020-P1 | 7.87 | 20,223 | 8.20 | 709.6 | 26.40 | 50.43 | 3.75 [3.50-4.00] | 1.70 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2021-P1 | 7.84 | 19,533 | 8.19 | 706.6 | 26.29 | 52.12 | 3.60 [3.35-3.85] | 1.70 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2021-P2 | 8.37 | 21,994 | 7.97 | 706.0 | 31.42 | 52.51 | 3.60 [3.35-3.85] | 1.95 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2021-P3 | 8.54 | 23,885 | 7.47 | 704.7 | 32.88 | 51.96 | 2.75 [2.50-3.00] | 2.65 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2021-P4 | 8.57 | 24,055 | 8.07 | 703.6 | 33.25 | 52.49 | 2.75 [2.50-3.00] | 2.85 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2022-P1 | 8.42 | 25,645 | 7.62 | 703.7 | 32.02 | 50.95 | 2.75 [2.50-3.00] | 3.10 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2022-P2 | 8.66 | 24,386 | 9.09 | 703.6 | 34.20 | 52.30 | 2.75 [2.50-3.00] | 3.60 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2022-P3 | 8.47 | 23,947 | 10.27 | 703.6 | 32.40 | 52.34 | 2.75 [2.50-3.00] | 3.90 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2023-P1(i) | 7.90 | 23,669 | 11.85 | 704.6 | 27.58 | 51.41 | 2.75 | 4.00 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2023-P2(i) | 8.17 | 23,685 | 12.74 | 703.8 | 29.41 | 52.70 | 2.75 | 4.25 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2023-P3(i) | 8.11 | 24,734 | 13.03 | 704.6 | 28.70 | 50.39 | 2.30 | 4.50 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2023-P4(i) | 8.00 | 24,369 | 13.11 | 703.7 | 27.16 | 51.76 | 2.30 | 3.80 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2023-P5(i) | 8.08 | 24,290 | 12.95 | 703.9 | 27.93 | 51.81 | 2.30 | 3.00 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2024-P1(i) | 8.06 | 24,539 | 13.05 | 702.7 | 27.95 | 52.53 | 2.30 | 2.75 | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2024-P2 | 7.92 | 24,622 | 13.61 | 701.8 | 26.25 | 54.06 | 2.30 | N/A | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2024-P3 | 7.95 | 24,821 | 13.69 | 700.8 | 26.88 | 54.52 | 2.35 | N/A | ||||||||||
| CRVNA 2024-P4 | 7.90 | 25,160 | 13.08 | 700.9 | N/A | 55.11 | 2.40 | N/A | ||||||||||
| (i)The percentage of loans with a PTI greater than 10% was provided by Carvana. ABS--Asset-backed securities. WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. PTI--Payment to income. ECNL--Expected cumulative net loss. N/A--Not available to S&P Global Ratings at the time of this report. | ||||||||||||||||||
Consumers' Ability To Make Timely Vehicle Payments Could Be Stressed
As we face potentially higher tariffs, further vehicle price increases without an increase in wages would further stress consumers' ability to make timely vehicle payments. We are already seeing strain on prime consumers' ability to make their payments because vehicle prices have risen faster than their incomes post-pandemic. Moreover, the cumulative effects on consumer pocketbooks are amplified from price inflation and elevated interest rates.
Related Research
- Cars Were Already Unaffordable Before Tariffs, Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2025
- SF Credit Brief: Inflation And Affordability Challenges Remain For Consumers Despite Low Unemployment, March 19, 2025
- U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance, Feb. 13, 2025
The author would like to thank to Xander Alvarado and Tom Schopflocher for their contributions to this article.
This report does not constitute a rating action.
| Primary Credit Analyst: | Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538; amy.martin@spglobal.com |
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