(Editor's Note: On May 28, 2025, we updated the section on Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU) in the Appendix after noticing a publishing error.)
Key Takeaways
- The 15 global multiline insurers (GMIs) that we rate reported aggregate net earnings of $68.1 billion in 2024. This constitutes an increase of 8% from 2023, or 15% excluding exceptional items.
- Property and casualty (P/C) activities benefited from strong underwriting results and volume growth. Even though combined ratios in personal lines improved, pricing adjustments take longer to materialize than in commercial lines.
- Life operation earnings increased materially. However, the anticipated market volatility in 2025 could significantly impair GMIs' short-term profitability.
- Dividend payout ratios over the past few years were high, at 50%-60%, and many players bought back shares for significant amounts.
- In our base-case scenario, we expect GMIs will report stable underwriting profits or a low single-digit increase in underwriting profits in 2025, compared with 2023-2024.
We define GMIs as globally diverse primary insurance groups that are diversified across business lines or geographies.
GMIs include highly diversified groups--such as AXA, Zurich, and Allianz--as well as life-focused international groups, such as Prudential Financial Group (U.S.), MetLife, Sun Life, Manulife, AIA, and Prudential PLC (Hong Kong). Non-life focused international groups include American International Group (AIG), Chubb, QBE, Tokio Marine, Mapfre, and Talanx.
After reviewing our GMI classifications, we decided to no longer consider Aviva and Aegon as GMIs due to significant shifts in their business operations that reduced their geographic diversification. In contrast, Talanx's business model expansion aligns more closely with our GMI definition, which led to its addition to the group.
Robust Earnings Translated Into Positive Rating Actions
GMIs demonstrated resilience in 2024. They achieved another year of robust performance, with aggregate net earnings increasing by 8% to $68.1 billion, from $62.6 billion in 2023 (see chart 1). Excluding exceptional items--notably AIG's one-off loss of $3.6 billion due to the sale of Corebridge--GMIs' overall net earnings rose 15% to $71.7 billion in 2024.
Chart 1
Year-over-year earnings growth in 2024 moderated from the significant increase of 55% over 2022-2023. This is because negative effects of the revaluation of long-term interest rates were less pronounced than in 2022.
GMIs' strong earnings resulted from several strategic initiatives. These included a focus on profitable underwriting, inflation-adjusted pricing, conservative investment portfolios, and the strategic use of reinsurance. Key distinguishing features among GMIs include diversification across business lines or geographies, key competitive advantages--such as brand recognition, distribution capabilities--and financial profiles.
GMIs' fee-based income from third-party management businesses boosted overall earnings additionally. For example, Allianz's asset management arm contributed more than 20% to operating earnings. Also, Farmers' insurance management services generated a material portion of Zurich's operating profit.
GMIs' earnings also benefited from sharing best practices--particularly related to product development and risk management--sophisticated internal controls to enhance operational efficiency, and the use of internal reinsurance. This increased diversification across regions and business lines.
The integration of technology further enhanced productivity. GMIs have started to gradually integrate generative artificial intelligence technology into underwriting, policy management, and other areas. This could further improve long-term efficiencies.
Ratings Overview
We rate 27% of the 15 GMIs at 'AA', 60% at 'AA-', and 13% at 'A+', which demonstrates the respective GMIs' financial strength (see chart 2). Most ratings on GMIs have stable outlooks, except those on AIA and AXA, which are positive.
The positive outlook on AIA results from improved visibility on the insurer's future profits under its international financial reporting standards (IFRS) 17 results. The positive outlook on AXA highlights the insurer's improving capital adequacy as a result of ongoing profitability growth and optimization of capital requirements.
Additionally, in February 2025, we upgraded Talanx to 'AA-' from 'A+' as the group significantly enhanced its revenue and earnings diversification across segments and regions.
In May 2025, we upgraded AIG to 'AA-' from 'A+' to reflect the company's progress and ability to achieve consistent strong underwriting performance, which is comparable with that of higher-rated competitors.
In the same month, we also upgraded QBE to 'AA-' from 'A+' to reflect the group's improved quality and consistency of earnings, which compares well with that of global multiline peers and has improved capital adequacy.
Chart 2
Flat Earnings Growth Ahead
We expect GMIs will report flat or low single-digit earnings growth on average over 2025-2026, barring exceptional events. We anticipate aggregate earnings of $65 billion-$75 billion over 2025-2026. This reflects the positive growth outlook in our base-case scenario and underscores insurers' potential for sustained financial performance (see chart 3).
Chart 3
Our base-case scenario does not consider exceptional market turbulences that could result from the recent tariff announcements or the unstable geopolitical environment. Both currently present a high degree of uncertainty. In all scenarios, earnings growth is unlikely to be as high as it was over 2022-2024 on average.
Several factors could hurt GMIs' earnings. GMIs could face net earnings pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, which could increase financial market volatility and inflation in the U.S. Moderate risk investments, still elevated reinsurance costs, and potentially unfavorable regulatory trends--which could increase claims costs--pose additional risks to earnings growth, particularly in difficult conditions.
Potential Pitfalls In 2025
Several factors could undermine GMIs' profit margins in 2025.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainty
Mainly related to trade tariffs, uncertainty could cause an economic recession, which would impair the P/C business. The effect on inflation in North America could be significant over the short term and might reduce lower-income households' purchasing power. This could impair new business growth for GMIs focusing on this region.
Geopolitical uncertainty could also inflate claims costs, notably in motor and property lines. Additionally, worse equity market conditions and elevated investment-related risks might deteriorate GMIs' investment results and earnings.
Financial market volatility
Stemming from a potentially prolonged weakness , financial market volatility could impair capital adequacy, particularly in the traditional life savings sector.
Illiquid investments
GMIs continue to hold investments in less liquid assets, such as speculative-grade bonds, private equity, credits, and commercial real estate. So far, they have earned additional investment returns from these alternative assets. Yet an economic slowdown or higher interest rates could increase the risk of default and might put further pressure on valuations, which could impair earnings.
Strong reliance on reinsurance
Higher reinsurance attachment points and still elevated reinsurance costs could reduce earnings, even more in the event of material natural disasters.
Unfavorable regulatory trends
These might affect underwriting performance and, occasionally, require the strengthening of reserves, notably for business lines that are sensitive to social inflation. Regulatory limitations on rate increases could also constitute challenges in some jurisdictions.
Underwriting In Property And Casualty Remains Resilient
GMIs' P/C commercial lines consistently produced strong underwriting results in 2024, spurred by ongoing rate hikes and disciplined underwriting. However, as we expected, average price increases in 2024 moderated to low single-digits for commercial lines. For a few GMIs, pricing trends were more favorable for personal lines and the small and midsize enterprise segment than they were for large commercial lines. Increased revenues led to favorable combined ratios.
For instance, the combined ratio of AXA's personal line improved by over 400 basis points (bps) to 93.9% in 2024, while the combined ratio of AIG's personal line improved by more than 200 bps to 98%.
Despite the increase in rate hikes, personal lines continued to report less favorable underwriting results, leading to relatively higher combined ratios compared with commercial lines. This is primarily due to higher claims costs that are not fully offset by rate increases.
In contrast, strong rate increases, on average, in standard commercial lines since 2019 have enabled insurers to stay ahead of loss cost trends and have improved their underwriting margins. This divergence underscores the structural challenges in personal lines, relative to the more resilient commercial lines.
P/C GMIs continued to increase their premium volumes and profitability. They benefited from new business and continued rate increases because insurers in most markets did not lower their tariffs to attract clients. All P/C GMIs' combined ratios were below 95%, reflecting solid underwriting profits.
Hurricane Milton in the U.S., other adverse weather events, and diminishing reserve releases partly offset the increase in premium rate hikes for North American-based P/C GMIs. Higher investment income and capital market gains also supported stronger returns and were meaningful earning contributors.
We believe potentially weaker economic growth and sustained inflation, notably social inflation in the U.S., are key risks for P/C GMIs. We expect GMIs will continue to focus on underwriting discipline and increasing market shares, notably for GMIs that are based in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Asia-Pacific (APAC).
Unless they can adjust pricing within shorter periods and cover inflated claims, U.S.-based GMIs and GMIs with a strong U.S. presence could face margin compression in 2025.
We expect premiums in 2025 will increase faster than nominal GDP. This reflects robust demand and insurers' rate increases--their response to elevated claims costs. We do not expect the wildfires in California to have a significant effect on P/C GMIs' combined ratios in 2025 as these insurers benefit from substantial geographic diversification and reinsurance protection.
Life GMIs' Earnings Growth Fueled By New Business Demand And Higher Investment Yields in 2024
GMIs' life operations across all geographies recorded higher earnings in 2024. The increase reflected higher new business premiums, increased investment yields, corrective pricing actions, and higher demand for retirement products. Rising insurance awareness, a wide protection gap, and aging demographics spurred the demand for savings-related products.
Slightly declining, but still high, interest rates and a focus on less market-sensitive products continued to stimulate the sales of fixed annuity products for North American-based life GMIs. EMEA- and APAC-based life GMIs recorded a sales increase in capital-light products, such as unit-linked and protection products. Life GMIs in these two regions do not aggressively push the sales of traditional guaranteed products.
EMEA-based GMIs' new business margins marginally decreased due to a shift to less market-sensitive and lower-margin products. Still, AIA, a life-focused Asia-based GMI, has reported double-digit growth in new business and new business margins. This growth resulted from a strategic shift to higher-margin protection and participating products.
As per our base-case scenario, we expect life GMIs' earnings will remain stable. Our outlook is supported by resilient new business volumes, still elevated investment yields, and increased demand across various regions. Nevertheless, earnings could suffer from adverse financial market conditions.
Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflation, volatile equity markets, and further downturn in commercial real estate could pose challenges that might reduce life insurers' profitability.
Increased Shareholder Returns, Limited M&A Opportunities
GMIs have gradually increased their dividend payouts since the COVID-19 pandemic. We also noticed increased share buyback efforts to return capital to shareholders (see chart 4). In particular, North American-based life GMIs decreased their capital-intensive footprint and market-sensitive business by divesting legacy blocks and reinsuring long-term products over the past few years.
Chart 4
GMIs typically returned excess capital generated from these transactions to shareholders through dividend payouts and share buybacks. Most large GMIs have announced share buybacks and dividend policies with high targeted payout ratios of 50%-60% over the coming years.
We do not expect many M&As, especially transformational deals, in 2025. However, the offshoring of annuity businesses in the U.S. and Canada will likely continue. We also expect some GMIs will continue bolt-on acquisitions, considering their robust capitalization.
GMIs have had long-standing success in frequently raising material debt amounts, including hybrid debt. We therefore do not consider financing as a constraint on potential transactions, especially as GMIs' financial leverage remains manageable.
In 2024, all GMIs--except for MetLife, Allianz, Zurich, and Prudential Financial Group--reported financial leverage ratios below 35% (see chart 5). This indicates most GMIs' generally maintain a conservative approach to leveraging, which can enhance financial stability and reduce risk exposure. This is even more true for when considering the material future profits expected from their life books.
Chart 5
Table 1
Financial strength ratings and scores as of May 23, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FSR on core subsidiaries | Anchor | BRP | CP | IICRA | FRP | CE | RE | FS | Modifiers | Governance | Liquidity | CRA | GS | |||||||||||||||||
AIA Group Ltd. |
AA-/Positive | aa- | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Allianz Group |
AA/Stable | aa | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Excellent | Excellent | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
American International Group Inc. |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Intermediate | Strong | Very strong | Moderately high | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
AXA |
AA-/Positive | aa- | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Strong | Strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Chubb Ltd. |
AA/Stable | aa | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Manulife Financial Corp. |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Low | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Mapfre S.A. |
A+/Stable | a+ | Very strong | Very strong | Intermediate | Strong | Strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
MetLife Inc. |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Low | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Prudential PLC |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Prudential Financial Inc. |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Low | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
QBE Insurance Group Ltd. |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Intermediate | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Sun Life Financial Inc. |
AA/Stable | aa | Excellent | Excellent | Very low | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Adequate | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Talanx Primary Insurance Group |
AA-/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Very strong | Intermediate | Very Strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Tokio Marine Group |
A+/Stable | aa- | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Very Strong | Very Strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||
Zurich Insurance Co. Ltd. |
AA/Stable | aa | Very strong | Excellent | Intermediate | Very strong | Very strong | Moderately low | Neutral | 0 | Neutral | Exceptional | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
BRP--Business risk profile. CE--Capital and earnings. CP--Competitive position. CRA--Comparable ratings analysis. FRP--Financial risk profile. FS--Funding structure. FSR--Financial strength rating. GS--Government support. IICRA--Insurance industry and country risk assessment. RE--Risk exposure. Source: S&P Global Ratings. |
Appendix
AIA
The insurance group's strong operating profit will likely continue to support its capital buffer and help AIA navigate market challenges, particularly in the face of capital market volatility amid tariff uncertainty.
2024 was another year of sound profitable growth for Hong Kong-based AIA, which benefited from its leading market position in APAC and productive distribution channels. The value of new business increased by 17% to $4.7 billion, from $4.0 billion in 2023, while operating profit after tax rose 6% to $6.6 billion, compared with $6.2 billion in 2023. Accumulated future profits in the form of contractual service margins (CSM) increased by 6% to $61.8 billion and largely resulted from strong new business growth.
We expect AIA will continue accumulating profits across key markets. AIA's net earnings significantly improved by 81% to $6.8 billion in 2024, from $3.8 billion in 2023. This was mainly due to fair value gains from derivatives held for interest rate risk management.
Its significant capital buffer enables AIA to fund its progressive profit distribution and additional share buyback. Total dividend payout increased by 9% per share in 2024. AIA announced a new $1.6 billion share buyback, which comprises $600 million to meet the target payout ratio of 75% of net free surplus generation in 2024, with an additional $1 billion after a review of its capital position.
We will continue to monitor the sustainability of AIA's capital strength at a 99.99% confidence level as the insurer expands into developing markets across APAC. We believe markets in Hong Kong and China will continue to lead the insurer's business growth and expect AIA will continue adopting proactive pricing and distribution strategies in response to regulatory developments and changing market dynamics.
AIG
The reported net income loss of $1.4 billion in 2024 included a $3.6 billion loss from discontinued operations--net of tax of $4.8 billion--as a result of the deconsolidation of Corebridge. Including the deconsolidation, full-year 2024 after-tax income was $3.3 billion, compared with a net income of $3.6 billion in 2023.
The decrease in net earnings by $254 million, which resulted from adverse developments in 2024, does not reflect the recoveries under a retroactive adverse development cover and the sales of AIG Re and Crop Risk Services (CRS).
Income from general insurance underwriting declined by $1.9 billion in 2024, from $2.3 billion in 2023. This reflects the sales of CRS and Validus Re in 2023 and the sale of AIG's travel business in 2024. The combined ratio of the P/C business was 91.8% in 2024, compared with 90.6% in 2023 and 91.9% in 2022. The combined ratio remained strong, despite higher catastrophe-related losses.
Shareholders' equity declined to $42.5 billion, from $45.4 billion at year-end 2023 and $41.0 billion at year-end 2022. The decrease primarily resulted from a net loss of $1.4 billion, which included the deconsolidation of Corebridge and share repurchases of $6.6 billion. This was offset by a positive swing in accumulated other comprehensive income of $8.1 billion, which was due to lower unrealized losses on bond holdings.
Management made substantial progress during 2024. It repositioned business lines, focused on risk-adjusted returns and disciplined growth, and reduced general operating and interest expenses.
The company started to reduce its exposure to California in 2022. Coupled with the 2025 reinsurance structure, the expected loss from the recent wildfires in the region amount to approximately $500 million.
AIG expects its share repurchases will exceed the $10 billion guidance it announced in 2024. The company returned $6.6 billion to shareholders in 2024 and has over $5.6 billion remaining on its current share repurchase authorization. Yet it expects to normalize share buybacks in 2026. The holding company's liquidity remained robust at $7.7 billion at year-end 2024.
Allianz Group
The group continued to display strong growth in insurance and asset management through 2024. Insurance revenue growth remained strong at 7% and reached almost €97.7 billion in 2024, supported by non-life and life insurance businesses. The group's 2024 IFRS 17 net income rose by almost 17% to €10.5 billion, and return on equity (ROE) increased to 18.2% in 2024.
In non-life insurance, the group maintained its resilient performance, reporting a combined ratio of 93.4%. In its life business, it reported a new life business margin of 5.7% for 2024 and very strong CSM growth of 6.1%, with a total gross CSM of €55.7 billion. Earnings from the group's insurance operations are further complemented by stable and growing fee income from large global asset management operations. Combined asset management operations contributed €3.2 billion to the operating profit in 2024.
Considering the gradually improving operating environment for non-life retail lines, more ambitious new risk additions, some smaller bolt-on acquisitions, and continued modest growth in life insurance, we increased our revenue growth forecast to 4%-8% over 2025-2027. We expect strong business growth with retention of robust underwriting results will enable the group to continue generating robust net income above €8 billion and ROE of 13%-18%.
Allianz's regulatory Solvency II ratio remained robust at 209% as of Dec. 31, 2024, and under our insurance capital model. Allianz's capital level remained comfortably above the 99.99% confidence level. In conjunction with its full-year 2024 results, the group also announced €2 billion in share buybacks.
Over 2025-2027, the group expects to distribute 75% of net income through dividends and share buybacks. We think the group's capital buffers and ongoing strong capital generation will provide a significant cushion in the event of a downside economic scenario and the emergence of stresses in capital markets.
AXA
Under IFRS 17 and 9, AXA reported gross premiums written (GPW) and other revenues of almost €110 billion, insurance revenues of about €86.1 billion, and net income of €7.9 billion in 2024. This was a significant improvement from the €7.2 billion posted under IFRS 17 in 2023.
P/C-related GPW and other revenues increased by 9% on a like-for-like basis to €56.5 billion in 2024, from €53.0 billion in 2023. Life insurance revenues rose 9% to €34.5 billion, from €32.0 billion, while health insurance revenues increased by 9% to €17.5 billion, from €16.1 billion.
The main driver of profit growth was the improvement of the IFRS 17 combined ratio of the P/C business to 91.0% from 93.2% in 2023. The improvement was driven by significant tariff increases in motor insurance, a slightly more favorable undiscounted current year loss ratio, and lower natural catastrophe charges.
Tariff increases were significant in the U.K., Ireland, and Germany in response to higher claim costs. The effect of natural catastrophe charges on the combined ratio declined to 3.8% in 2024, from 4.8% in 2023.
AXA intends to continue to improve its efficiency to obtain 6%-8% annual growth in underlying earnings per share. We believe these objectives are achievable, despite the uncertain economic context. We recently revised the outlook to positive because we believe AXA Group's expected continuous profitability growth for 2024-2026 and its capital-light strategy will strengthen the group's capital adequacy, despite a relatively high shareholder remuneration policy of 75% of underlying net income (60% via dividends and 15% via share buybacks).
AXA's regulatory Solvency II ratio was 216% as of Dec. 31, 2024, compared with 227% as of Dec. 31, 2023. The decline in the Solvency II ratio resulted from lower unrealized gains on certain assets, non-replacement of a hybrid debt issue, and the widening of spreads on government bonds. We expect AXA will maintain a moderate reliance on hybrid debt, as evidenced by a financial leverage ratio below 40%.
The negative outlook on our 'AA-' sovereign credit rating on France has no effect on our ratings on AXA Group. This is because the group's exposure to French assets totals less than 20% of its general accounts investments. Moreover, we forecast that AXA Group would not deplete its regulatory capital base of €55.9 billion as of year-end 2024 in a hypothetical sovereign stress scenario, according to our methodology, and we believe regulatory intervention is unlikely.
Chubb Ltd.
Chubb's consolidated net premiums written increased by 8.7% to $51.5 billion at year-end 2024. P/C net premiums written were up 7.7%, reflecting strong pricing in most commercial lines. Life net premiums written increased by 15.7% to $6.3 billion, reflecting the momentum in the company's life business.
P/C underwriting income reached another record of $5.9 billion, up from $5.46 billion in 2023, with a peer-leading combined ratio of 86.6%, compared with 86.5% in 2023. Shareholders' equity, excluding non-controlling interest, increased by 7.6% to $64.0 billion, from $59.5 billion in 2023. The increase was primarily due to strong earnings.
Net income in 2024 was $9.3 billion, including a tax benefit of $55 million in the first quarter. Accumulated other comprehensive income deteriorated by $1.8 billion, primarily due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates, fixed income valuation, and discount rates on future policy benefits.
The improvement of Chubb's public and private equity investment portfolio in 2024 partially offset the decline. The company returned $3.1 billion to shareholders.
Manulife Financial Corp.
Manulife's core earnings were Canadian dollar (C$) 7.2 billion in 2024, an 8% increase compared with 2023. The growth in core earnings was primarily due to favorable underwriting in Asia and Canada, as well as strong net inflows from the global wealth asset management business.
Overall, the group benefited from strong sales, new business CSM, new business value in Asia, and an increase in net fee income from, on average, higher assets under management and positive net flows.
Manulife's Asian business generated about C$2.6 billion in core earnings in 2024--approximately 34% of the group's core earnings, excluding corporate and other business and core gains. This was followed by the U.S. (22%) and Canada (21%). The insurer's global wealth and asset management segment provided an additional source of core earnings and accounted for C$1.7 billion or 23% in 2024.
As of Dec. 31, 2024, financial leverage--including unfunded pension obligations, the present value of operating leases, and hybrid debt--was about 31% on a reported equity basis.
Mapfre Group
Mapfre's reported net income reached an all-time high of €1.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from 2023. This was supported by improved technical results.
The reported net combined ratio of the P/C business decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 93% under IFRS 17 and by 2.8 percentage points to 94.4% under homogenized local generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
Life activities also contributed positively to the overall results, thanks to favorable investment yields. Yet, earnings from life business were down 17%, mainly due to the depreciation of local currencies in Brazil and other Latin-American countries.
Reinsurance business profitability improved in 2024, thanks to favorable renewals and the limited number of large catastrophe events. Mapfre posted a net combined ratio of 94%, which is a decline of 2 percentage points versus 2023.
We will continue to monitor the development of Mapfre's motor activities, which remain the main line of business and display technical unprofitability. That said, motor activities are recovering at the group level, with a net combined ratio of 104.6% in 2024, compared with 106.0% in 2023. For the first quarter of 2025, the ratio improved further to 99.3% for that line of business (versus 105.3% for the first quarter of 2024).
We forecast that net income will be resilient over the coming years. Underwriting discipline and growth through price increases will support the insurer's performance. ROE is strong and improved to 16.0% in 2024, versus 13.7% in 2023.
We expect Mapfre's capital and earnings will remain at least strong. The group's Solvency II ratio increased to 207.4% (provisional as communicated by the group)--without transitional measures--as of year-end 2024, compared with 199.6% at year-end 2023. Mapfre's dividend payout ratio is about 55%.
MetLife Inc.
MetLife reported adjusted earnings of $5.8 billion in 2024, compared with $5.6 billion in 2023. The increase resulted from volume growth, a rise in investment income, and variable investment income due to higher rates and asset growth. It was partially offset by higher average crediting rates in the U.S.
At the same time, the insurer recorded a strong growth in its net income to $4.2 billion, versus $1.4 billion in 2023. This increase was primarily due to reduced investment and derivative losses, as well as improved adjusted earnings.
The holding company continued to maintain a solid cash position of $5.1 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024, exceeding MetLife's target of $3.0 billion-$4.0 billion.
As of Dec. 31, 2024, MetLife's financial leverage--including unfunded pension obligations, the present value of operating leases, and hybrid debt--was close to 50% on a reported equity basis because of higher unrealized losses. Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, adjusted financial leverage was about 35%.
Prudential PLC
Prudential is on track to meet its strategic objectives for 2027. We believe the insurance group will likely further expand its agency and bancassurance channels on the back of its strong presence in key Asian markets. This could facilitate profitable growth over the next two years, even as Prudential navigates some evolving emerging markets.
The insurance group reported a 10% year-on-year increase in operating profit and an 11% rise in new business profits, excluding economic effects, in 2024. Accumulated future profits in the form of CSM increased by 6% to $24.7 billion due to new business growth and the return from the in-force book.
Ongoing re-pricing efforts and product mix optimization will also contribute to value and surplus generation. This will support the insurer's capital buffer, fund share buybacks, and support growth in profit distribution.
We anticipate Prudential's share buybacks will remain modest as it seeks to operate with a free surplus ratio of 175%-200%. That said, expansions in Asia and Africa increase the insurer's exposure to emerging economies with evolving regulations and underdeveloped capital markets. This could intensify capital utilization.
Prudential's dividends increased by 13% in 2024 and the group plans to accelerate its $2 billion share buyback program by end-2025. Prudential has a free surplus ratio of 234%, against an operating target of 175%-200%. The insurer's 2024 pro forma ratio of 204% accounted for its remaining share buyback program, second 2024 interim dividends, and new bancassurance arrangement in Indonesia.
Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU)
PRU reported an adjusted pretax operating income of $5.9 billion in 2024, compared with $5.6 billion in 2023. The higher result reflects an increase in investment income, growth in asset management fees, and favorable underwriting results. These were offset by an unfavorable effect from an update of annual review assumptions and higher expenses, primarily due to a cost associated with the recent guaranteed universal life reinsurance transactions and the consolidation of internal captive reinsurance arrangements.
Overall, PRU's PGIM, retirement strategies, and the corporate segment reported improved earnings, while individual life and international business reported weaker results.
PRU's regulatory capital ratios exceeded the target and its cash and liquid assets stood at $4.6 billion, which is above the company's liquidity target of $3 billion. As of Dec. 31, 2024, financial leverage (including unfunded pension obligations, the present value of operating leases, and hybrids) was about 35% on a reported equity basis. Excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, adjusted financial leverage was 30%.
QBE Group
QBE reported improved net profit of US$1.78 billion in 2024, up 31.3% from US$1.36 billion in 2023. The favorable trend largely reflected improved underwriting performance due to rate adequacy and better risk selection, along with solid investment returns.
Even though 2024 constituted a year of significant catastrophe losses for global insurers, QBE's exit from some higher-risk property portfolios in recent years softened its catastrophe losses.
GPW increased by 3% to US$22.4 billion last year, benefiting from the ongoing strength in premium rates and targeted new business growth. This was offset by portfolio exits in North America and APAC.
The group achieved an average renewal premium rate increase of 5.5% in 2024, compared with 9.7% in 2023. We expect rate increases will moderate slightly in 2025 but continue to support growth.
The group's combined ratio meaningfully improved to 93.1%, from 95.2% in 2023, supported by lower exposure to catastrophes. The improvement also reflects the group's efforts to de-risk the portfolio, particularly in North America. Capital adequacy remains strong. At 1.86x, QBE's regulatory capital multiple remains at the top end of the group's target range.
For 2025, we expect QBE will benefit from ongoing strength in premium rates and portfolio improvements. Yet a rise in social inflation could impair casualty lines. The announced US$200 million net exposure to the California wildfires is modest and should mostly affect QBE's international division through Lloyd's and QBE Reinsurance.
Sun Life Financial (SLF)
SLF's underlying and adjusted net income increased slightly by 3% to $3.8 billion in 2024, compared with 2023. The insurer benefited from strong earnings across its product lines, namely Wealth & Asset Management, Group Health & Protection, and Individual Protection in the U.S, Canada, and Asia.
Overall business fundamentals remained solid, with strong top-line growth in Wealth & Asset Management and Individual Protections. Growth was offset by lower sales in Group Health & Protection. The decline resulted from a deterioration in the U.S. Medicaid and Medicare Advantage dental businesses, which benefited from large institutional sales in 2023. The company's business momentum in Asia continues. Sales in Hong Kong increased due to expanded distribution capabilities.
Underlying net income was robust and increased in Asset & Wealth Management and Individual Protection. This was partially offset by the Group Health & Protection segment, which suffered from unfavorable morbidity rates in the U.S. and Canada, costs related to medical stop loss policies, and a decline in U.S. dental insurances.
Assets under management increased by about 10% to $1.5 trillion in 2024, from $1.4 trillion in 2023. The company maintained strong reported ROE of 13.1% and underlying ROE of 17.2%, just shy of its medium-term financial objective of 18.0%.
As of year-end 2024, SLF's life insurance capital adequacy test ratio under IFRS 17 was 152%, 3 percentage points higher than 2023. The ratio benefited from organic capital generation but was partially offset by share buybacks.
Talanx Group
Talanx Group's reported financial performance was robust in 2024. The company achieved a net income of €1.98 billion, a 25% increase from €1.58 billion in 2023 that included Hannover Re's earnings share.
Primary insurance contributed 49% to the group's net income, up from 46% in 2023. This growth was bolstered by a 16% rise in insurance revenues for the primary insurance business, which reached about €23 billion.
The group substantially enhanced its earnings generation and diversification through its successful expansion in Latin America and strong, profitable growth in its Corporate and Specialty business.
Talanx Group benefits from a well-balanced portfolio that generates revenues and earnings across a broad range of business lines and regions in three segments: Retail International (about 40% of earnings contribution in 2024), Corporate and Specialty (about 45%), and Retail Germany (about 15%).
Tokio Marine Group
Tokio Marine Group's results improved significantly in fiscal year 2024 (ended March 31, 2025), compared with fiscal year 2023 (ended March 31, 2024). This was mainly due to realized gains from the sale of strategically held equities.
Additionally, continuous strong results of key international subsidiaries, rate increases, a decline in large losses in the Japanese P&C business, and positive effects related to the foreign exchange rate supported the strong earnings, despite the increase in capital losses in the U.S.
The group reported an adjusted net income of yen (JPY) 1,215 billion in fiscal year 2024, which constituted a 71% increase from fiscal 2023.
Net premiums written in the P/C business increased by 10% due to rate increases and expanded underwriting, while life premiums declined by 44% due to a domestic life reinsurance transaction.
Pre-tax losses from natural catastrophe increased to JPY201 billion in fiscal year 2024, from JPY181 billion in fiscal year 2023. The earned-incurred combined ratio of the domestic P/C business improved to 96.1% in fiscal year 2024, from 97.7% in fiscal year 2023. This was due to a decline in foreign currency-denominated loss reserves due to foreign exchange movements. The loss ratio for auto insurance deteriorated to 70% from 67%.
The main U.S. subsidiaries maintained combined ratios of 88%-94%. The group's economic solvency ratio was 149% at fiscal year-end 2024, slightly higher than the group's target range of 100%-140%, which was calculated based on value at risk of 99.95%. Tokio Marine Group, which reports under Japanese GAAP, increased its dividend payments and share buybacks in fiscal year 2024.
The group estimates post-tax losses from the California wildfires in early 2025 at JPY28 billion. Losses of JPY12 billion for the main domestic operating company, TMNF, will be included in the financial report for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. We expect the remaining JPY16 billion from the international business will be included in the report for the first quarter of 2025.
Zurich Insurance Co. (ZIC)
ZIC's operating performance improved in 2024, with a 34% increase in consolidated net income attributable to shareholders to $5.8 billion, compared with $4.4 billion in 2023. The insurer benefited from an increase in business operating profit by 5% to $7.8 billion, mainly supported by strong results in the P/C and life business.
The company's reported combined ratio improved to 94.2% in 2024, compared with 94.5% in 2023. A decrease in the attritional loss ratio of 0.6% was partly offset by higher commissions. Natural catastrophe claims of 3.1% of the combined ratio were slightly above the groups guided range of 2.5%-3.0%. The natural catastrophe effect on the 2023 combined ratio was 3.0%.
We expect ZIC's performance will remain strong as rate increases in some lines continue. Insurance revenues from the P/C business rose 5% on a like-for-like basis, as defined by the group, to $44.8 billion. They resulted from higher business volumes and rate increases of 4%.
ZIC's life business reported a 8% growth in operating profit to $2.2 billion, with all key profit drivers contributing to the improvement.
The CSM and risk adjustment release for long term-contracts benefited from a higher contribution from biometric products. Technical results from short-term protection products benefited from solid business growth, mainly in Latin America. Fee results from investment contracts increased because of higher assets under management and improved margins.
A rise in new business CSM for long-term insurance products of 5% and an increase in insurance revenues of 7% in ZIC's short-term business (all calculated on a like-for-like basis, as defined by the group) supported the positive performance.
The group's solvency, based on the Swiss Solvency Test, increased to 252% in 2024, compared with 234% in 2023. The improvement mainly resulted from favorable market movements, an increase in economic profits, the disposal of an annuity book in Chile and the issuance of a USD 500 million subordinated bond. Yet it was partly offset by negative movements from model and assumption changes, as well as capital actions, such as dividend payments or M&A activities.
Related Research
- QBE Insurance Group Ltd. Core Subsidiaries Upgraded To 'AA-' From 'A+'; Group Upgraded To 'A'; Outlook Stable, May 23, 2025
- American International Group Inc. And Core Subsidiaries Upgraded To AA-' From 'A+'; Outlook Stable On Core Subsidiaries, May 15, 2025
- AXA Group Outlook Revised To Positive On Expected Capital Strengthening And Profitability Growth; 'AA-' Ratings Affirmed, Feb. 25, 2025
- Talanx Primary Insurance Group Upgraded To 'AA-' On Enhanced Diversification And Earnings Resilience; Outlook Stable, Feb. 5, 2025
- AIA Group Ltd. And Subsidiaries Outlook Revised To Positive On Accounting Treatment Transparency; Ratings Affirmed, Dec. 22, 2024
- QBE Insurance Group Outlook Revised To Positive, Ratings Affirmed, On Revised Capital Model Criteria, May 31, 2024
- American International Group Inc. Outlook Revised To Positive And Ratings Affirmed On Revised Capital Model Criteria, Feb. 21, 2024
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analyst: | Marc-Philippe Juilliard, Paris + 33 14 075 2510; m-philippe.juilliard@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contacts: | Toshiko Sekine, Tokyo +81 3 4572 6285; toshiko.sekine@spglobal.com |
Simon Ashworth, London + 44 20 7176 7243; simon.ashworth@spglobal.com | |
Volker Kudszus, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9192; volker.kudszus@spglobal.com | |
Carmi Margalit, CFA, New York + 1 (212) 438 2281; carmi.margalit@spglobal.com | |
Ami M Shah, Mumbai (91) 22-4040-8340; ami.shah@spglobal.com | |
Rahul Iyer, Mumbai; rahul.iyer@spglobal.com |
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