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EMEA Financial Institutions Monitor 1Q2025: Managing Falling Interest Rates Will Be Key To Solid Profitability

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EMEA Financial Institutions Monitor 1Q2025: Managing Falling Interest Rates Will Be Key To Solid Profitability

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S&P Global Ratings expects the performance of financial institutions in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) to remain broadly stable in 2025 thanks to supportive fundamentals. We think that most banks across EMEA will maintain adequate profitability, solid liquidity, and sound capitalization throughout 2025, given our cautiously positive macroeconomic outlook.

We think that banks' profitability will only decline moderately from the solid levels we have seen in most banking sectors in EMEA over the past two years, supported by higher lending demand from corporate and retail borrowers, as well as stable credit costs throughout 2025. In the first half of this year, net interest income proved more resilient than we expected due to the delay in policy rate cuts.

However, as declining interest rates put more pressure on earnings, banks will be forced to manage their cost of funding, continue using interest rate hedging, and increase their control over operational costs. At the same time, the differences across banks and banking systems will persist and continue to determine how well banks are able to manage the challenges of declining interest rates.

Meanwhile, easing inflation and declining interest rates should bring some welcome relief to businesses and households, resulting in resilient asset quality for banks. While we could still see a lag effect on asset quality--especially in more vulnerable segments such as small and midsize enterprises, unsecured consumer credit, and commercial real estate loans--this underpins our views that some increase in credit costs that we expect in 2025 compared to the previous year should be manageable for most EMEA banks.

The key risks that could challenge our base-case scenario include:

  • Weaker economic growth than we expect, which would weigh on labor markets;
  • Governments' tighter fiscal positions;
  • Increased risk-taking by banks seeking to offset declining earnings growth; and
  • Financial instability due to market volatility.

Potential volatility in energy prices beyond our base-case expectations, as well as more protectionist trade policies in the U.S., could undermine current economic growth prospects and lead to tightening financing conditions. However, we consider that for most countries in the region it would mean slower economic growth rather than a material shock.

Political risks are also elevated in Europe as it faces the need to increase investments in digitalizing and decarbonizing the economy, improve its competitiveness against the U.S. and China, and bolster its defense capabilities. This could reshape Europe's economic outlook, but at the same time, it is a challenge that requires unity and coordination between European countries, which might not be easy to achieve.

Geopolitical risks remain high because of the continued threat that further escalations of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will disrupt supply chains and cause commodity price volatility and a significant shift in governments' spending priorities. Evolving technologies (such as AI), climate change, and cyber risks will challenge some banks' business models and risk management while offering opportunities to others, increasing credit divergence.

Positive Rating Actions And Stable Outlooks Prevail

Our rating actions on banks in EMEA have maintained a pronounced positive net bias in 2024. Our outlook is largely stable, with 79.9% of bank ratings having a stable outlook. The creditworthiness of banks in Southern Europe and several emerging markets still shows some upside, contributing to the 15% of bank ratings with a positive outlook. This supports our expectation of a resilient performance throughout 2025.

Chart 2

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Chart 3

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European Banks' Resolution Story Evolves

We continue to believe that resolution planning and subordinated loss-absorbing capacity make taxpayer-funded solvency support an uncertain prospect for failing systemic banks in Europe. Further changes in European crisis management frameworks are likely, although they will be evolutionary in nature and are unlikely to lead to rating changes.

Regulators consider that European banks are substantially resolvable, although ongoing efforts aim to bolster resolvability in key areas, such as liquidity and the operationalization of the bail-in tool.

We continue to reflect European banks' progress in building their loss-absorption capacity by raising the ratings if we deem that their resolution strategy and subordinated bail-in buffers are likely to reduce the default risk for their senior preferred liabilities.

Strategic M&A Is Picking Up

On the back of their solid capital positions and improved valuations, European banks aim to deploy excess capital and consider strategic options to strengthen their franchises, support and diversify earnings, and achieve long-term efficiencies through consolidation. Support for this also comes from various governments' attempts to continue divesting their remaining stakes in the financial institutions they have rescued over the past two decades.

Several recent deal announcements fit this trend:

  • Nationwide Building Society's acquisition of Virgin Money UK PLC in the U.K.;
  • Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.'s decision to launch a voluntary tender offer to Banco de Sabadell S.A.'s shareholders;
  • BNP Paribas S.A.'s acquisition of AXA Investment Managers;
  • Banco BPM SpA's tender offer to increase its stake in asset manager Anima Holding SpA, and its acquisition of a 5% equity stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA; and
  • UniCredit SpA's attempts to reach a deal with German Commerzbank AG, and more recently, Italian Banco BPM.

Emerging Market Conditions Will Remain Supportive Despite Lower Growth Forecasts

We think that the likely rise in protectionism in the U.S. and higher tariffs on Chinese imports will weaken economic growth in China, and, to a certain degree, its key trading partners, mostly in Asia. This could have a knock-on effect on global demand and inflation and result in tighter financing conditions. Consequently, we expect lower economic growth in emerging markets, but not a material shock.

Credit conditions will likely remain supportive for the majority of EMEA's emerging markets. Continued economic growth and disinflation--even if weaker than we previously forecast--will support the financial standing of corporate and retail borrowers, which, in turn, will be positive for banks' asset quality. Emerging market banks should benefit from further rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, likely leading to stronger corporate debt issuance by banks and nonfinancial companies.

At the same time, there is a risk that interest rates could settle at a higher level than we expect, which could lead to increased market volatility. In addition, a potential decline in commodity prices--particularly oil--could impinge on emerging economies dependent on oil export revenues.

Dependence on external debt remains a key risk for some emerging banking systems. We expect external debt to continue to build in Saudi Arabia, whereas in Qatar, it should stabilize in the absence of major government investments.

Refinancing risk is stabilizing for Turkish banks, supported by a high rollover of debt, thanks to various measures that the central bank has taken since 2023 to enable disinflation and reserve accumulation. These include an increase of the policy rate to 50.0% from 8.5%; the implementation of a monthly growth limit on new loans; and banks' increased reserve requirements on certain types of deposits to reduce the available liquidity in the banking system. As a result, new lending has decelerated, inflation has been declining, the Turkish lira has become more stable, and external accounts have rebalanced.

The risk of increasing geopolitical tensions, a sharper downturn than we expect in developed economies, and a slowdown in China continue to weigh on emerging markets' growth prospects. This could lead to further disruption in supply chains and the production of key commodities. It could also depress export flows and revenues and stymie FDI to emerging markets.

Profitability And Asset Quality Boost GCC Banks' Resilience

We expect GCC banks to continue to perform well in the absence of unexpected shocks, thanks to increasing lending volumes, higher fee income, stable margins, and strong cost efficiency. We expect rate cuts to affect margins in 2025, but this could support asset quality. GCC banks remain exposed to potentially lower economic growth because of production and price dynamics in the oil market, the possible unwinding of imbalances in the real estate and other cyclical sectors, and geopolitical risks that could shift investor sentiment.

Key Banking Sector Risks In EMEA

S&P Global Ratings uses its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk and industry risk scores to determine the anchor for a financial institution, which is the starting point of a rating. Our BICRA criteria evaluate and compare the relative strength of global banking systems. BICRA scores are on a scale from '1' to '10', with group '1' representing the lowest-risk banking systems and group '10' the highest-risk ones.

The table below presents S&P Global Ratings' BICRA assessments for the banking sectors in EMEA. For more information, see the latest BICRA publications on a given country.

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Chart 4

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Selected Research

We recently published several articles highlighting our views on EMEA banking sectors:

Economic, Sovereign, And Other Research

Updated Rating Methodology

BICRA Changes

Over the past two quarters, we made the following changes to our BICRA assessments.

Cyprus

We have revised our economic risk score for Cyprus to '6' from '7'. We believe that economic risks affecting Cypriot financial institutions have receded since banks have cleaned up a large portion of the nonperforming loans they accumulated during the last crisis and now enjoy more supportive economic conditions. With the aforementioned change, we have also revised our economic risk trend for Cyprus to stable from positive.

In addition, we have revised our industry risk trend for Cyprus to positive from stable. We believe that banks in Cyprus should continue to benefit from the rebalancing of their funding profiles and more solid profitability stemming from better efficiency and a contained cost of risk.

Egypt

We revised our assessment of industry risk to '8' from '9' for Egypt. Following the exchange-rate liberalization in early March 2024, foreign-currency inflows increased significantly, helping the Egyptian banking sector shift back to a net external asset position. At the same time, we revised our economic risk trend to positive due to the system's resilient asset quality and receding economic imbalances.

Greece

We have revised our BICRA for Greece to group '6' from group '7' following the revision of the economic risk score to '6' from '7' and the industry risk score to '6' from '7'. The Greek banking system's active balance-sheet cleanup is coming to an end as the system achieves full post-crisis recovery and starts to benefit from positive economic momentum in Greece. Enhanced market sentiment has also eased our view of the risks surrounding banks' funding profiles, as Greek banks have maintained low funding costs thanks to a granular and stable deposit base and access to more affordable funding from debt markets abroad. Our trends for both economic risk and industry risk are stable.

Ireland

We have revised our industry risk trend to positive from stable for Ireland. The positive trend reflects our expectation that profitability prospects for Irish banks remain solid after returns improved in 2023 thanks to higher interest rates and market consolidation.

Italy

We have revised our industry risk trend for Italy to positive from stable. Positive interest rates and a normalized credit cycle contribute materially to Italian banks' stronger profitability prospects.

Jordan

We revised our assessment of economic risk to '7' from '8' and reclassified Jordan's banking system as being in group '7' from group '8'. Our anchor for banks operating in Jordan has now improved to 'bb' from 'bb-'. We anticipate that economic risk for banks in Jordan will be lower overall. The positive effect of a more benign economic environment on business activities should support Jordanian banks' profitability and capital. In particular, we expect more dynamic business volumes, with annual growth of 4%-5%, given our forecast that interest rates will decrease and economic activity will strengthen, supporting a rise in lending. Tight control over operating costs will help support Jordanian banks' profitability.

Portugal

We revised our assessment of industry risk to '4' from '5' for Portugal and reclassified Portugal's banking system as being in group '4' from group '5'. Our anchor for banks operating in Portugal has now improved to 'bbb' from 'bbb-'. Portuguese banks have maintained their solid funding profiles and benefit from stronger access to foreign capital markets. We do not expect major changes ahead. In addition, banks repaid almost all of the remaining targeted longer-term refinancing operations in the first few months of 2024, while maintaining ample liquidity (the system's liquidity coverage ratio stood at 273% at end-June 2024).

Morocco

We have kept Morocco in BICRA group '7'. The economic and industry risk scores remain '7' and '6', respectively, and we continue to view both trends as stable. We expect Moroccan banks to benefit from reduced economic imbalances thanks to the stabilizing real estate sector. We expect lending growth to accelerate because of higher economic growth and asset quality to slightly improve.

Oman

We revised our assessment of economic risk to '6' from '7' for Oman and reclassified Oman's banking system as being in group '6' from group '7'. Our anchor for banks operating in Oman has now improved to 'bb+' from 'bb'. We expect Omani banks' credit losses to stabilize amid reducing economic imbalances and a more supportive operating environment. Structural reforms have helped to improve the financial position of the Omani government and its related entities and laid the foundation for stronger economic resilience.

Saudi Arabia

We have revised our industry risk score for Saudi Arabia to '4' from '3'. External funding is set to represent a larger share of Saudi banks' funding profiles, and we believe that the system is likely to shift to a net external debt position by 2025. We have therefore revised our assessments of the banking sector's systemwide funding and industry risk.

South Africa

We revised our economic risk trend for South Africa to positive from stable. This reflects our expectations that macroeconomic conditions will improve and that banks' cautious lending expansion could lead to lower economic risks.

The revision of our assessment of industry risk to '4' from '5' reflects our improved view of risks related to systemwide funding. South Africa has broad and deep capital markets, providing a sustainable funding base for the government and the private sector and supporting banks' funding profile, while the closed rand system mitigates banks' exposure to wholesale funding. Underpinning our view of the stable trend for industry risk are the proactive supervision and good risk-adjusted profitability of the banking system.

Tunisia

We have revised our industry risk trend for Tunisia to stable from negative. Customer deposits, which are Tunisian banks' primary funding source, have proven stable and have grown over time, despite the macroeconomic and policy uncertainty that the country has experienced in the past few years. The government has also managed to pay its commercial external debt on time amid sporadic external support and we see its creditworthiness stabilizing. We therefore consider that the risk of a potential crisis of confidence among depositors has reduced. Moreover, external debt is dominated by deposits from a few offshore companies and Tunisian expatriates, as well as long-term loans from multilateral lending institutions that, in our view, reduce the risk of sudden and material outflows.

Turkiye

We revised our economic risk score for Turkiye to '8' from '9' based on lower economic imbalances. Following the central bank's adoption of a tight monetary stance, we have witnessed a strong deceleration of lending, a drop in inflation, a more stable Turkish lira, and a rebalancing of Turkiye's external accounts. Our economic risk trend is now stable.

We also revised our industry risk trend to positive from stable. We could revise our industry risk score upward if banks continue to demonstrate financial stability amid the ongoing economic readjustment, or if we see a complete return to orthodox and predictable policies by removing distortive measures and adopting hyperinflationary accounting standards.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

We have revised our economic risk trend for the UAE to positive from stable. This reflects our view that the robust performance of the non-oil economy in the UAE has improved the banking system's asset-quality indicators and reduced credit losses. The economic and social reforms that the UAE has implemented over the past few years have contributed to the improvement and could further reduce credit risk in the UAE economy over time.

That said, the UAE economy remains susceptible to an unexpected surge in regional geopolitical tensions and vulnerable to a significant drop in oil prices, as this could undermine sentiment or increase risk aversion among banks. Ultimately, this could reverse the improvement in asset quality performance we have seen over the past couple of years.

Table 2

Ratings component scores: Top 50 European banks
Institution Operating company long-term ICR/outlook Anchor Business position Capital and earnings Risk position Funding and liquidity CRA adjustment SACP/GCP Type of support Number of notches support Additional factors
Austria
Erste Group Bank AG A+/Positive bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong(+1) Adequate (0) Strong/Strong (+1) -1 a ALAC 1 0
Raiffeisen Bank International AG A-/Negative bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Strong/Strong (+1) 0 a- None 0 0
Belgium
Belfius Bank SA/NV A/Stable a- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 1 0
KBC Bank N.V. A+/Positive bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Denmark
Danske Bank A/S A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate(0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Nykredit Realkredit A/S A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
Finland
Nordea Bank Abp AA-/Stable a- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a+ ALAC 1 0
France
BNP Paribas S.A. A+/Stable bbb+ Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
BPCE S.A. A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
Credit Mutuel Group A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Credit Agricole S.A. A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
La Banque Postale A/Stable
Société Générale Société anonyme A/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Germany
Commerzbank AG A/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) -1 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Cooperative Banking Sector Germany A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Strong/Strong (+1) 0 a+ None 0 0
Deutsche Bank AG A/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 1 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Volkswagen Bank GmbH BBB+/Stable bbb+ Moderate (-1) Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Moderate/Adequate (-1) 0 bbb+ None 0 0
Greece
Alpha Bank S.A. BB+/Stable bb+ Adequate (0) Moderate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bb+ None 0 0
Eurobank S.A. BB+/Positive bb+ Adequate (0) Moderate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bb+ None 0 0
Piraeus Bank S.A. BB/Positive bb+ Adequate (0) Constrained (-1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bb None 0 0
Ireland
AIB Group PLC§ A/Positive bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Bank of Ireland Group PLC§ A/Positive bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Israel
Bank Hapoalim B.M. BBB+/Negative bbb Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ None 0 0
Bank Leumi le-Israel B.M. BBB+/Negative bbb Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 1 bbb+ None 0 0
Italy
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA BBB/Stable bbb- Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ None 0 -1
Mediobanca SpA BBB/Stable bbb- Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb None 0 0
Iccrea Banca SpA BBB-/Positive bbb- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Constrained (-2) Strong/Strong (+1) 0 bbb- None 0 0
UniCredit SpA BBB/Stable bbb Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ None 0 -1
Netherlands
ABN AMRO Bank N.V. A/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) -1 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Cooperatieve Rabobank U.A. A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
ING Bank N.V. A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 1 a ALAC 1 0
Norway
DNB Bank ASA AA-/Stable a- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a+ ALAC 1 0
Spain
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. A/Stable bbb Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 1 0
Banco de Sabadell S.A. BBB+/Positive bbb Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb ALAC 1 0
Banco Santander S.A. A+/Stable bbb Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
CaixaBank S.A. A/Stable bbb Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ ALAC 2 0
Sweden
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB A+/Positive a- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Svenska Handelsbanken AB AA-/Stable a- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a+ ALAC 1 0
Swedbank AB A+/Positive a- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Switzerland
UBS Group AG§ A+/Stable a- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Raiffeisen Schweiz Genossenschaft AA-/Stable a- Adequate (0) Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a+ ALAC 1 0
Zuercher Kantonalbank AAA/Stable a- Strong (+1) Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate(0) 0 aa- GRE 3 0
U.K.
Barclays PLC§ A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
HSBC Holdings PLC§ A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Strong/Adequate (0) 0 a ALAC 1 0
Lloyds Banking Group PLC§ A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
Nationwide Building Society A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (NatWest Group PLC)§ A+/Stable bbb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
Standard Chartered PLC§ A+/Stable bbb+ Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Strong/Strong (+1) 0 a- ALAC 2 0
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Dec. 9, 2024. In the "Type of support" column, "None" includes some banks where ratings uplift because of support factors may be possible but none is currently included. For example, this column includes some systemically important banks where systemic importance results in no ratings uplift. §Holding company; the rating reflects that on the main operating company. ALAC--Additional loss-absorbing capacity. CRA--Comparative ratings adjustment. GCP--Group credit profile. GRE--Government-related entity. ICR--Issuer credit rating. N/A--Not applicable. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

Table 3

Ratings component scores: Top 20 CEEMEA banks
Institution Operating company long-term ICR/outlook Anchor Business position Capital and earnings Risk position Funding and liquidity CRA adjustment SACP/ GCP Type of support Number of notches support Additional factors
Bahrain
Ahli United Bank B.S.C. BBB+/Stable bb+ Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb Group 2 0
Arab Banking Corp. B.S.C. BBB-/Stable bb+ Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb- None 0 0
Jordan
Arab Bank PLC BB-/Stable bb Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Strong/Strong (+1) 0 bb+ None 0 -2
Kuwait
National Bank of Kuwait S.A.K. A/Stable bbb Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- Sov 1 0
Qatar
Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) A+/Stable bbb- Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb GRE 4 0
The Commercial Bank (P.S.Q.C.) A-/Stable bbb- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb- Sov 3 0
Oman
BankMuscat S.A.O.G. BBB-/Stable bb+ Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb- None 0 0
Saudi Arabia
The Saudi National Bank A-/Positive bbb Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- None 0 0
Al Rajhi Bank A-/Positive bbb Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 a- None 0 0
Riyad Bank A-/Positive bbb Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb+ Sov 1 0
Banque Saudi Fransi A-/Stable bbb Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb Sov 2 0
Arab National Bank A-/Stable bbb Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb Sov 2 0
The Saudi Investment Bank BBB/Positive bbb Moderate (-1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb- Sov 1 0
United Arab Emirates
Mashreqbank A/Stable bbb- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb Sov 3 0
First Abu Dhabi Bank P.J.S.C. AA-/Stable bbb- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate/Strong (0) 0 a- GRE 2 1
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC A/Positive bbb- Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Adequate/Adequate (0) 0 bbb GRE 3 0
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Dec. 9, 2024. In the "Type of support" column, "None" includes some banks where ratings uplift because of support factors may be possible but none is currently included. For example, this column includes some systemically important banks where systemic importance results in no ratings uplift. §Holding company; the rating reflects that on the main operating company. ALAC--Additional loss-absorbing capacity. CRA--Comparative ratings adjustment. GCP--Group credit profile. GRE--Government-related entity. ICR--Issuer credit rating. N/A--Not applicable. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile. Sov--Government support.

Table 4

Ratings component scores: Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)
Institution Industry Operating company long-term ICR/outlook Anchor Business position Capital and earnings Risk position Funding and liquidity CRA adjustment SACP/ GCP Type of support Number of notches support Additional factors
Azerbaijan
Entrepreneurship Development Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan NBFI -- Finco BB-/Positive b Adequate (0) Very strong (+2) Moderate (-1) Adequate/ Adequate (0) +1 bb- None 0 0
Cyprus
Ronin Europe Ltd. NBFI -- Securities Firm BB-/Stable bb Constrained (-2) Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Adequate/ Adequate (0) -1 bb- None 0 0
Denmark
Saxo Bank A/S NBFI -- Securities Firm A-/Negative bbb- Moderate (-1) Very strong (+2) Adequate (0) Strong / Strong (+1) -1 bbb ALAC 2 0
Finland
LocalTapiola Finance Ltd NBFI -- Finco BBB/Stable bbb- Moderate (-1) Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Adequate/ Adequate (0) 0 bb Group 3 0
Kazakhstan
OnlineKazFinance Microfinance Organization JSC NBFI -- Finco B-/Stable b Moderate (-1) Moderate (0) Moderate (-1) Adequate/ Adequate (0) 0 b- None 0 0
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company NBFI -- Finco A-/Postive bbb- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Moderate (-1) Moderate/ Adequate (-1) 0 bb+ GRE 4 0
United Kingdom
Marex Group PLC NBFI -- Securities Firm BBB-/Stable bbb- Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Adequate (0) Adequate/ Adequate (0) 0 bbb None 0 -1
NewDay Group (Jersey) Ltd. NBFI -- Finco B+/Stable bb+ Moderate (-1 ) Constrained (-3) Adequate (0) Adequate/ Adequate (0) +1 b+ None 0 0
Together Financial Services Ltd. NBFI -- Finco BB/Stable bb+ Moderate (-1) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate/ Adequate (0) 0 bb None 0 0
Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data as of Dec. 9, 2024. ALAC--Additional loss-absorbing capacity. CRA--Comparative ratings adjustment. GCP--Group credit profile. GRE--Government-related entity. ICR--Issuer credit rating. N/A--Not applicable. SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

Table 5

Recent rating actions: EMEA banks
Date of action Bank Country To From
29/11/2024 Ceskoslovenska obchodni banka a.s. (CSOB) Czechia A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
29/11/2024 KBC Bank N.V. Belgium A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
29/11/2024 KBC Group N.V. Belgium A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
29/11/2024 Erste Group Bank AG Austria A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
29/11/2024 Crelan S.A. Belgium A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
28/11/2024 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Sweden A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
28/11/2024 Cajamar Caja Rural S.C.C. (Cajamar) Spain BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Positive/B
28/11/2024 Banco de Credito Social Cooperativo S.A. (BCC) Spain BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Positive/B
25/11/2024 Bank of Ireland PLC Ireland A/Positive/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
25/11/2024 Bank of Ireland Group PLC Ireland BBB/Positive/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2
25/11/2024 Allied Irish Banks Ireland A/Positive/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
25/11/2024 AIB Group PLC Ireland BBB/Positive/A-2 BBB/Stable/A-2
20/11/2024 Development Bank of South Africa Ltd. South Africa BB-/Positive/B BB-/Stable/B
20/11/2024 FirstRand Ltd. South Africa B/Positive/B B/Stable/B
20/11/2024 FirstRand Bank Ltd. South Africa BB-/Positive/B BB-/Stable/B
20/11/2024 Nedbank Ltd. South Africa BB-/Positive/B BB-/Stable/B
20/11/2024 Investec Bank Ltd. South Africa BB-/Positive/B BB-/Stable/B
20/11/2024 Capitec Bank Ltd. South Africa BB-/Positive/B BB-/Stable/B
19/11/2024 JSC PASHA Bank Georgia Georgia B/Stable/B NR
15/11/2024 Banco BPI S.A. Portugal A-/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Positive/A-2
14/11/2024 Oma Savings Bank PLC (OmaSp) Finland BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2
14/11/2024 CaixaBank, S.A. Spain A/Stable/A-1 A-/Positive/A-2
12/11/2024 Knab N.V. Netherlands BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2
12/11/2024 Landsbankinn hf Iceland BBB+/Positive/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2
12/11/2024 Islandsbanki hf Iceland BBB+/Positive/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2
05/11/2024 Grenke AG Germany BBB/Stable/A-2 NR
30/10/2024 Banque Internationale a Luxembourg Luxembourg A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
30/10/2024 Attijariwafa Bank  Morocco BB/Positive/B BB/Stable/B
29/10/2024 Ceska Sporitelna, a.s. Czech Republic A+/Stable/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
29/10/2024 Erste Abwicklungsanstalt Germany AA/Negative/A-1+ AA/Stable/A-1+
24/10/2024 Banco BPM SpA  Italy BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB-/Positive/A-3
22/10/2024 Gorenjska Banka D.D. Slovenia BB+/Stable/-- NR
09/10/2024 Mizrahi Tefahot Bank Ltd. Israel BBB+/Negative/A-2 A-/Negative/A-2
09/10/2024 Bank Leumi le-Israel B.M. Israel BBB+/Negative/A-2 A-/Negative/A-2
09/10/2024 Bank Hapoalim B.M. Israel BBB+/Negative/A-2 A-/Negative/A-2
04/10/2024 Banco Comercial Portugues S.A. Portugal BBB/Positive/A-2 BBB-/Positive/A-3
01/10/2024 Virgin Money UK PLC United Kingdom BBB/Stable/A-2 BBB-/Watch Pos/A-3
01/10/2024 Clydesdale Bank PLC United Kingdom A/Stable/A-1 A-/Watch Pos/A-2
27/09/2024 Zeus Bidco Ltd. United Kingdom B/Negative/ B+/Stable/
24/09/2024 Ecobank Nigeria Ltd. Nigeria CCC/Negative/C CCC/Watch Neg/C
20/09/2024 Swedbank Sweden A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1
18/09/2024 Saudi National Bank Saudi Arabia A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
18/09/2024 Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
18/09/2024 Al Rajhi Bank Saudi Arabia A-/Positive/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
17/09/2024 Haitong Bank Portugal BB/Developing/B BB/Negative/B
13/09/2024 Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. Poland A-/Stable/A-2 BBB+/Positive/A-2
10/09/2024 DekaBank Germany A/Positive/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
04/09/2024 Alpha Bank S.A. Greece BB+/Stable/B BB/Positive/B
26/08/2024 BKS Bank Austria BBB+/Stable/-- NR
14/08/2024 De Volksbank Netherlands A/Negative/A-1 A/Stable/A-1
08/08/2024 Commerzbank AG Germany A/Stable/A-1 A-/Positive/A-2
31/07/2024 Ecobank Nigeria Ltd. Nigeria CCC/Watch Neg/C B-/Negative/B
31/07/2024 Alinma Bank Saudi Arabia A-/Stable/-- NR
09/07/2024 Garfunkelux Holdco 2 S.A. Luxemborg CCC+/Negative/C B/Negative/B
09/07/2024 MBH Investment Bank Co. Ltd. Hungary BB+/Stable/B BB+/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Piraeus Bank S.A. Greece BB/Positive/B BB-/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A. Greece B+/Positive/B B/Positive/B
04/07/2024 National Bank of Greece S.A. Greece BB+/Positive/B BB/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Eurobank S.A. Greece BB+/Positive/B BB/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Alpha Services and Holdings Societe Anonyme Greece B+/Positive/B B/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Alpha Bank S.A. Greece BB/Positive/B BB-/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Aegean Baltic Bank S.A. Greece BB-/Stable/B B+/Positive/B
04/07/2024 Landshypotek Bank AB Sweden A/Stable/A-1 A/Negative/A-1
28/06/2024 Kapitalbank Uzbekistan B+/Stable/B B/Stable/B
28/06/2024 Freedom Holding Corp US B-/Stable/- B-/Negative/-
28/06/2024 S-Bank PLC Finland BBB+/Stable/A-2 BBB/Positive/A-2
26/06/2024 Kaspi Bank JSC Kazakhstan BB+/Stable/B BB/Positive/B
19/06/2024 Bausparkasse Wüstenrot AG Austria BBB+/Positive/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2
18/06/2024 Bank of Cyprus Public Co. Ltd. Cyprus BB+/Positive/B BB/Positive/B
17/06/2024 Oma Savings Bank PLC Finland BBB+/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2
10/06/2024 Credit Municipal de Paris France A+/Stable/A-1 AA-/Negative/A-1+
05/06/2024 GFH Financial Group B.S.C Bahrain B-/Stable/B B/Stable/B
05/06/2024 Luzerner Kantonalbank AG Switzerland AA+/Stable/A-1+ AA/Positive/A-1+
05/06/2024 First Iraq Islamic Bank For Investment And Finance Iraq B-/Stable/-- NR
04/06/2024 La Banque Postale France A/Stable/A-1 A+/Negative/A-1
04/06/2024 La Poste France A/Stable/A-1 A+/Negative/A-1
NR--Not rated.

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Natalia Yalovskaya, London + 44 20 7176 3407;
natalia.yalovskaya@spglobal.com
Secondary Contacts:Elena Iparraguirre, Madrid + 34 91 389 6963;
elena.iparraguirre@spglobal.com
Mohamed Damak, Dubai + 97143727153;
mohamed.damak@spglobal.com
Nicolas Charnay, Paris +33623748591;
nicolas.charnay@spglobal.com
Additional Contact:Financial Institutions EMEA;
Financial_Institutions_EMEA_Mailbox@spglobal.com

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