Key Takeaways
- In January 2025, U.S. prime auto loan ABS losses declined slightly (76 bps) relative to December (80 bps) thanks to a higher recovery rate (51.31%, up from 49.85%). In addition, losses were stable with year-ago levels. While 60-plus-day delinquencies declined slightly from the prior month and prior year, at 60 bps, they are at their second-highest January level since 2011.
- Subprime auto loan ABS losses increased (9.44%) relative to December (9.22%) despite a higher recovery rate (33.30% versus 30.41%). On a year-over-year basis, losses were nearly stable. Similar to prime, 60-plus-day delinquencies finally retreated to 6.22% from 6.40% for December 2024 and 6.31% a year earlier; they remained at their second-highest January level in our database going back to January 2006.
For January's tracker, we are providing abbreviated data and commentary given that we just published our in-depth year-in review tracker last month (see "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 13, 2025). As performance trends do not change significantly month to month, we are considering publishing only the performance data going forward, except for our March, June, September, and December performance months, in which we'll continue to include static pool and ratings performance as well as commentary. We welcome your feedback on these proposed changes.
Tables 1 and 2 show the historical monthly performance of prime and subprime U.S. auto loan ABS for the past 12 months, respectively.
For the full dataset, see our extended tables: Click here.
For an overview of the sector, performance trends, and more detailed information, see our latest quarterly tracker, "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 23, 2024.
Table 1
Prime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime composite | ||||||||||||||||||||
Month/year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | Reg AB II LL extensionr rate (%)(i) | 144a extension rate (%) | U.S. unemployment rate (%) | U.S. CPI(ii) | |||||||||||
Jan/2025 | 104,524,614,318.13 | 0.76 | 51.31 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 4.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||||
Dec/2024 | 99,744,616,673.75 | 0.80 | 49.85 | 0.62 | 2.04 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 4.10 | 2.90 | |||||||||||
Nov/2024 | 100,698,946,789.98 | 0.74 | 52.40 | 0.58 | 1.89 | 0.70 | 4.20 | 2.70 | ||||||||||||
Oct/2024 | 101,938,987,228.87 | 0.76 | 54.95 | 0.56 | 1.86 | 0.89 | 4.10 | 2.60 | ||||||||||||
Sep/2024 | 98,038,334,330.66 | 0.74 | 51.30 | 0.60 | 1.87 | 0.63 | 4.10 | 2.40 | ||||||||||||
Aug/2024 | 97,047,258,206.81 | 0.79 | 66.54 | 0.62 | 1.91 | 0.61 | 4.20 | 2.50 | ||||||||||||
Jul/2024 | 96,318,185,361.02 | 0.75 | 53.92 | 0.61 | 1.95 | 0.63 | 4.20 | 2.90 | ||||||||||||
Jun/2024 | 94,855,539,660.21 | 0.64 | 55.13 | 0.58 | 1.81 | 0.50 | 4.10 | 3.00 | ||||||||||||
May/2024 | 93,258,053,085.53 | 0.55 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.73 | 0.47 | 4.00 | 3.30 | ||||||||||||
Apr/2024 | 92,976,031,616.53 | 0.56 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.67 | 0.44 | 3.90 | 3.40 | ||||||||||||
Mar/2024 | 88,885,665,508.80 | 0.62 | 59.88 | 0.51 | 1.68 | 0.41 | 3.90 | 3.50 | ||||||||||||
Feb/2024 | 92,639,277,629.37 | 0.67 | 51.94 | 0.54 | 1.68 | 0.44 | 3.90 | 3.20 | ||||||||||||
Jan/2024 | 87,109,062,334.51 | 0.76 | 49.39 | 0.64 | 1.88 | 0.56 | 3.70 | 3.10 | ||||||||||||
(i)Reg AB II LL: data sourced from SEC loan-level filings. (ii)U.S. Consumer Price Index as reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. DQ--Delinquency. CPI Consumer Price Index. |
Table 2
Subprime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subprime composite | ||||||||||||||||
Month/year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | Reg AB II LL extension rate (%)(i) | 144a extension rate (%) | |||||||||
Jan/2025 | 62,140,654,547.44 | 9.44 | 33.30 | 6.22 | 16.15 | 3.04 | 4.47 | |||||||||
Dec/2024 | 60,820,496,895.26 | 9.22 | 30.41 | 6.40 | 17.02 | 3.63 | 3.94 | |||||||||
Nov/2024 | 58,860,047,149.06 | 9.14 | 35.08 | 6.01 | 15.91 | 3.39 | 3.64 | |||||||||
Oct/2024 | 58,228,571,956.90 | 9.50 | 36.37 | 5.87 | 15.79 | 4.38 | 3.98 | |||||||||
Sep/2024 | 59,484,708,527.46 | 8.61 | 35.43 | 5.94 | 15.78 | 3.19 | 3.55 | |||||||||
Aug/2024 | 56,964,349,388.28 | 9.64 | 36.60 | 5.90 | 15.59 | 3.30 | 3.72 | |||||||||
Jul/2024 | 55,652,368,521.21 | 8.82 | 34.97 | 5.98 | 16.07 | 3.31 | 3.79 | |||||||||
Jun/2024 | 54,367,389,223.75 | 7.95 | 36.52 | 5.82 | 15.55 | 2.59 | 3.56 | |||||||||
May/2024 | 54,774,744,733.07 | 7.23 | 44.61 | 5.40 | 14.93 | 2.43 | 3.25 | |||||||||
Apr/2024 | 53,964,137,838.80 | 7.30 | 44.24 | 5.31 | 14.64 | 2.01 | 3.11 | |||||||||
Mar/2024 | 53,556,537,244.24 | 7.55 | 44.56 | 5.19 | 14.04 | 1.80 | 3.70 | |||||||||
Feb/2024 | 55,948,790,766.46 | 8.10 | 39.50 | 5.50 | 14.53 | 2.03 | 4.11 | |||||||||
Jan/2024 | 53,692,789,703.79 | 9.39 | 35.93 | 6.31 | 16.48 | 2.59 | 5.31 | |||||||||
(i)Reg AB II LL: data sourced from SEC loan-level filings. DQ--Delinquency. |
Appendix I: Auto Tracker Frequently Asked Questions
How do you define prime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize prime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of 3.25% or less and average FICO scores of 700 or higher. We include CarMax and Carvana in this segment.
How do you define subprime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize subprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of at least 7.5%, average FICO scores of less than 620, and annual percentage rates that exceed 14.0%.
How do you calculate the monthly net loss rate?
The monthly net loss rate is annualized. It equals each transaction's net loss rate weighted by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. Transactions usually have zero or low losses during their first three months, which dilute the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly recovery rate?
We calculate recoveries by taking the recovery amount reported (which typically includes all recoveries, such as disposition proceeds, post-disposition proceeds, and any other reported recoveries) over the gross loss amount for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's recovery percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the index starting in its fourth month outstanding. During a transaction's first three months, unusually high or low recoveries are reported, leading to a spike in the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly 60-plus-day delinquency rate?
We calculate delinquencies by taking each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency amount over the ending pool balance for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the composite. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. During the transaction's first three months, zero or fewer delinquencies are reported, which dilutes the composite figures.
Related Research
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analyst: | Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538; amy.martin@spglobal.com |
Analytical Manager: | Frank J Trick, New York + 1 (212) 438 1108; frank.trick@spglobal.com |
Research Contributors: | Siddhesh Pai, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
Manati Kathani, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
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