articles Ratings /ratings/en/research/articles/250402-u-s-auto-loan-abs-tracker-february-2025-performance-13463622 content esgSubNav
In This List
COMMENTS

U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: February 2025 Performance

COMMENTS

House Price Overvaluation Moderates For Europe's RMBS And Covered Bond Markets

COMMENTS

European CLO Margins: Shocks And Recoveries Are Guides To The Future

COMMENTS

U.S. BSL CLO Obligors: Corporate Rating Actions Tracker 2025 (As Of March 28)

COMMENTS

U.K. Post-2014 Buy-To-Let Monitor Q4 2024


U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: February 2025 Performance

Tables 1 and 2 show the historical monthly performance of prime and subprime U.S. auto loan ABS for the past 14 months, respectively, which Charts 1 and 2 illustrate performance from February 2011 through February 2025.

For the full dataset, see our extended tables: Click here.

For an overview of the sector, performance trends, and more detailed information, see our latest quarterly tracker, "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 13, 2025.

Table 1

Prime 12-month summary
Prime composite
Month-year Outstanding amount ($) Annualized losses (%) Recovery rate (%) 60+ day DQ (%) 30+ day DQ (%) U.S. unemployment rate U.S. CPI(i)
Feb-25 102,471,139,643.79 0.69 56.17 0.55 1.74 4.10 2.80
Jan-25 104,524,614,318.13 0.76 51.31 0.60 1.88 4.00 3.00
Dec-24 99,744,616,673.75 0.80 49.85 0.62 2.04 4.10 2.90
Nov-24 100,698,946,789.98 0.74 52.40 0.58 1.89 4.20 2.70
Oct-24 101,938,987,228.87 0.76 54.95 0.55 1.86 4.10 2.60
Sep-24 98,038,334,330.66 0.74 51.30 0.60 1.87 4.10 2.40
Aug-24 97,047,258,206.81 0.79 66.54 0.62 1.91 4.20 2.50
Jul-24 96,318,185,361.02 0.75 53.92 0.61 1.95 4.20 2.90
Jun-24 94,855,539,660.21 0.64 55.13 0.58 1.81 4.10 3.00
May-24 93,258,053,085.53 0.55 63.54 0.54 1.73 4.00 3.30
Apr-24 92,976,031,616.53 0.56 63.54 0.54 1.67 3.90 3.40
Mar-24 88,885,665,508.80 0.62 59.88 0.51 1.68 3.90 3.50
Feb-24 92,639,277,629.37 0.67 51.94 0.54 1.68 3.90 3.20
Jan-24 87,109,062,334.51 0.76 49.39 0.64 1.88 3.70 3.10
(i)U.S. Consumer Price Index as reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. DQ--Delinquency. CPI Consumer Price Index.

Table 2

Subprime 12-month summary
Subprime composite
Month-year Outstanding amount ($) Annualized losses (%) Recovery rate (%) 60+ day DQ (%) 30+ day DQ (%)
Feb-25 61,048,860,859.98 8.71 36.60 5.84 15.15
Jan-25 62,140,654,547.44 9.44 33.30 6.22 T
Dec-24 60,820,496,895.26 9.22 30.41 6.40 17.02
Nov-24 58,860,047,149.06 9.14 35.08 6.01 15.91
Oct-24 58,228,571,956.90 9.50 36.37 5.87 15.79
Sep-24 59,484,708,527.46 8.61 35.43 5.94 15.78
Aug-24 56,964,349,388.28 9.64 36.60 5.90 15.59
Jul-24 55,652,368,521.21 8.82 34.97 5.98 16.07
Jun-24 54,367,389,223.75 7.95 36.52 5.82 15.55
May-24 54,774,744,733.07 7.23 44.61 5.40 14.93
Apr-24 53,964,137,838.80 7.30 44.24 5.31 14.64
Mar-24 53,556,537,244.24 7.55 44.56 5.19 14.04
Feb-24 55,948,790,766.46 8.10 39.50 5.50 14.53
Jan-24 53,692,789,703.79 9.39 35.93 6.31 16.48
DQ--Delinquency.

Chart 1

image

Chart 2

image

Chart 3

image

Chart 4

image

Surveillance

Table 3

Surveillance actions
Rating action (by class) ECNL (no. of transactions)
Date Issuer Transactions reviewed Upgrades Downgrades Affirmations CreditWatch Removed from CreditWatch CreditWatch extended Increased Decreased Maintained
Prime(i)
Nonprime/subprime
3/6/2025 FCAT 5 9
3/14/2025 WOSAT 2 3 5 2
3/20/2025 GCAR 2 5 1 2
3/25/2025 PART 2 3 1 1
3/31/2025 UACST 2 2 2 2
Total 13 10 0 11 10 0 0 5 2 0
(i)No prime surveillance actions. Flagship--Flagship Credit Auto Trust, World Omni--World Omni Select Auto Trust, GCAR--GLS Auto Receivables Issuer Trust, PART--Prestige Auto Receivables Trust. ECNLs--Expected cumulative net losses.

Table 4

Historical ratings activity--U.S. auto loan ABS
Period Upgrades Downgrades
2015 177 0
2016 357 0
2017 322 0
2018 335 2
2019 432 5
2020 332 8
2021 579 0
2022 416 6
2023 396 6
2024 313 11
2025(i) 14 0
Total 3,673 38
(i)As of March. 31, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities.

Table 5

Historical ratings activity--Canadian ABS auto loan ABS
Period Upgrades Downgrades
2021 8 0
2022 3 0
2023 2 0
2024 0 0
2025(i) 0 0
Total 13 0
(i)As of March. 31, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities.

In March we placed nine ratings on five Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions on CreditWatch negative. At the time of the CreditWatch assignment, five of the classes were rated in the 'BB' category. Also, some of the classes that were placed on CreditWatch negative had previously been upgraded by one-to-two notches. The classes D and E are the only affected classes and are from the 2021 and 2022 transactions. The CreditWatch action is a result of weaker-than-expected performance (see table 6 for more information).

In March, we reviewed two Prestige Auto Receivables Trust transactions and affirmed ratings on three classes of notes from series 2021-1. At the same time, we placed our 'BB- (sf)' rating on the class E notes from series 2024-1 on CreditWatch negative. The CreditWatch action is a result of weaker-than-expected performance observed during the first 12 months of the transaction.

Table 6

Flagship Credit Auto Trust
Series Original ECNL Former ECNL(i) Revised ECNL/recent action
2021-3 11.00-11.50 12.50 In March, placed class E on CreditWatch negative
2021-4 11.25-11.75 13.75 In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative
2022-1 11.25-11.75 15.25 In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative
2022-3 11.25-11.75 19.50 In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative
2022-4 11.50 19.25 In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative
(i)2021-3, 2021- 4, 2022-1, and 2022-3 revised in February 2024. 2022-4 revised in May 2024

Table 7

World Omni Select Auto Trust
Series Original ECNL Former ECNL(i) Revised ECNL(ii)
2021-A 6.25-6.75 2.50 2.05
2023-A 6.25 4.75 4.00
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 2025.

Table 8

GLS Auto Receivables Trust
Original ECNL Former ECNL (i) Revised/maintained ECNL(ii)
2022-2 16.75 20.25 20.50
2022-3 16.75 20.75 21.25
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 15, 2025, distribution date.

Table 9

Prestige Auto Receivables Trust
Series Original ECNL Former ECNL (i) Revised ECNL/recent action(ii)
2021-1 14.50-15.50 18.50 23.25
2024-1 19.25 N/A In March, placed class E on CreditWatch negative
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 2025 distribution date. N/A Not applicable

Table 10

United Auto Credit Securitization Trust
Series Original ECNL Former ECNL(i) Revised ECNL/recent action(ii)
2022-1 20.50 24.50 27.50
2023-1 22.25 25.50 29.25
(i)As of March 2024. (ii)As of March 2025. CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectations.

Appendix I: Auto Tracker Frequently Asked Questions

How do you define prime auto loan ABS?

We generally categorize prime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of 3.25% or less and average FICO scores of 700 or higher. We include CarMax and Carvana in this segment.

How do you define subprime auto loan ABS?

We generally categorize subprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of at least 7.5%, average FICO scores of less than 620, and annual percentage rates that exceed 14.0%.

How do you calculate the monthly net loss rate?

The monthly net loss rate is annualized. It equals each transaction's net loss rate weighted by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. Transactions usually have zero or low losses during their first three months, which dilute the composite figures.

How do you calculate the monthly recovery rate?

We calculate recoveries by taking the recovery amount reported (which typically includes all recoveries, such as disposition proceeds, post-disposition proceeds, and any other reported recoveries) over the gross loss amount for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's recovery percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the index starting in its fourth month outstanding. During a transaction's first three months, unusually high or low recoveries are reported, leading to a spike in the composite figures.

How do you calculate the monthly 60-plus-day delinquency rate?

We calculate delinquencies by taking each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency amount over the ending pool balance for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the composite. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. During the transaction's first three months, zero or fewer delinquencies are reported, which dilutes the composite figures.

Related Research

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Credit Analyst:Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538;
amy.martin@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Jenna Cilento, New York + 1 (212) 438 1533;
jenna.cilento@spglobal.com
Analytical Manager:Frank J Trick, New York + 1 (212) 438 1108;
frank.trick@spglobal.com
Research Contributors:Siddhesh Pai, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai
Manati Kathani, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P’s opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-related publications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limited to, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process.

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.spglobal.com/ratings (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.spglobal.com/usratingsfees.

 

Create a free account to unlock the article.

Gain access to exclusive research, events and more.

Already have an account?    Sign in