Key Takeaways
- In February 2025, U.S. auto loan ABS demonstrated normal seasonal trends, with month-over-month improvements in losses, recoveries, and delinquencies.
- For the second month in a row, prime auto loan losses and 60-plus-day delinquencies declined and recoveries improved. Prime annualized losses declined seven basis points (bps) to 69 bps in February from 76 bps in January due to higher recoveries, which increased to 56.17% from 51.31%. At the same time 60-plus-day delinquencies inched downwards five bps to 55 bps from 60 bps. On a year-over-year basis, prime losses and 60-plus-delinquencies rose only slightly, while recoveries improved substantially from 51.94% last year.
- Subprime annualized losses decreased substantially (74 bps) for the month to 8.71% due to higher recoveries of 36.60% (33.30%). Sixty-plus-day delinquencies declined for the second month, to 5.84% from 6.22% in January and 6.40% in December 2024, but remained higher than February 2024 (5.50%). Losses also remained higher than last year (8.10%) due to recoveries declining from 39.50% in February 2024.
- Our March surveillance reviews resulted in 10 upgrades, no downgrades, and 10 subprime classes being placed on CreditWatch negative.
Tables 1 and 2 show the historical monthly performance of prime and subprime U.S. auto loan ABS for the past 14 months, respectively, which Charts 1 and 2 illustrate performance from February 2011 through February 2025.
For the full dataset, see our extended tables: Click here.
For an overview of the sector, performance trends, and more detailed information, see our latest quarterly tracker, "U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance," published Feb. 13, 2025.
Table 1
Prime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prime composite | ||||||||||||||||
Month-year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | U.S. unemployment rate | U.S. CPI(i) | |||||||||
Feb-25 | 102,471,139,643.79 | 0.69 | 56.17 | 0.55 | 1.74 | 4.10 | 2.80 | |||||||||
Jan-25 | 104,524,614,318.13 | 0.76 | 51.31 | 0.60 | 1.88 | 4.00 | 3.00 | |||||||||
Dec-24 | 99,744,616,673.75 | 0.80 | 49.85 | 0.62 | 2.04 | 4.10 | 2.90 | |||||||||
Nov-24 | 100,698,946,789.98 | 0.74 | 52.40 | 0.58 | 1.89 | 4.20 | 2.70 | |||||||||
Oct-24 | 101,938,987,228.87 | 0.76 | 54.95 | 0.55 | 1.86 | 4.10 | 2.60 | |||||||||
Sep-24 | 98,038,334,330.66 | 0.74 | 51.30 | 0.60 | 1.87 | 4.10 | 2.40 | |||||||||
Aug-24 | 97,047,258,206.81 | 0.79 | 66.54 | 0.62 | 1.91 | 4.20 | 2.50 | |||||||||
Jul-24 | 96,318,185,361.02 | 0.75 | 53.92 | 0.61 | 1.95 | 4.20 | 2.90 | |||||||||
Jun-24 | 94,855,539,660.21 | 0.64 | 55.13 | 0.58 | 1.81 | 4.10 | 3.00 | |||||||||
May-24 | 93,258,053,085.53 | 0.55 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.30 | |||||||||
Apr-24 | 92,976,031,616.53 | 0.56 | 63.54 | 0.54 | 1.67 | 3.90 | 3.40 | |||||||||
Mar-24 | 88,885,665,508.80 | 0.62 | 59.88 | 0.51 | 1.68 | 3.90 | 3.50 | |||||||||
Feb-24 | 92,639,277,629.37 | 0.67 | 51.94 | 0.54 | 1.68 | 3.90 | 3.20 | |||||||||
Jan-24 | 87,109,062,334.51 | 0.76 | 49.39 | 0.64 | 1.88 | 3.70 | 3.10 | |||||||||
(i)U.S. Consumer Price Index as reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. DQ--Delinquency. CPI Consumer Price Index. |
Table 2
Subprime 12-month summary | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Subprime composite | ||||||||||||
Month-year | Outstanding amount ($) | Annualized losses (%) | Recovery rate (%) | 60+ day DQ (%) | 30+ day DQ (%) | |||||||
Feb-25 | 61,048,860,859.98 | 8.71 | 36.60 | 5.84 | 15.15 | |||||||
Jan-25 | 62,140,654,547.44 | 9.44 | 33.30 | 6.22 | T | |||||||
Dec-24 | 60,820,496,895.26 | 9.22 | 30.41 | 6.40 | 17.02 | |||||||
Nov-24 | 58,860,047,149.06 | 9.14 | 35.08 | 6.01 | 15.91 | |||||||
Oct-24 | 58,228,571,956.90 | 9.50 | 36.37 | 5.87 | 15.79 | |||||||
Sep-24 | 59,484,708,527.46 | 8.61 | 35.43 | 5.94 | 15.78 | |||||||
Aug-24 | 56,964,349,388.28 | 9.64 | 36.60 | 5.90 | 15.59 | |||||||
Jul-24 | 55,652,368,521.21 | 8.82 | 34.97 | 5.98 | 16.07 | |||||||
Jun-24 | 54,367,389,223.75 | 7.95 | 36.52 | 5.82 | 15.55 | |||||||
May-24 | 54,774,744,733.07 | 7.23 | 44.61 | 5.40 | 14.93 | |||||||
Apr-24 | 53,964,137,838.80 | 7.30 | 44.24 | 5.31 | 14.64 | |||||||
Mar-24 | 53,556,537,244.24 | 7.55 | 44.56 | 5.19 | 14.04 | |||||||
Feb-24 | 55,948,790,766.46 | 8.10 | 39.50 | 5.50 | 14.53 | |||||||
Jan-24 | 53,692,789,703.79 | 9.39 | 35.93 | 6.31 | 16.48 | |||||||
DQ--Delinquency. |
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Surveillance
Table 3
Surveillance actions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating action (by class) | ECNL (no. of transactions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Date | Issuer | Transactions reviewed | Upgrades | Downgrades | Affirmations | CreditWatch | Removed from CreditWatch | CreditWatch extended | Increased | Decreased | Maintained | |||||||||||||
Prime(i) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nonprime/subprime | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
3/6/2025 | FCAT | 5 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||
3/14/2025 | WOSAT | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
3/20/2025 | GCAR | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
3/25/2025 | PART | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
3/31/2025 | UACST | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
Total | 13 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
(i)No prime surveillance actions. Flagship--Flagship Credit Auto Trust, World Omni--World Omni Select Auto Trust, GCAR--GLS Auto Receivables Issuer Trust, PART--Prestige Auto Receivables Trust. ECNLs--Expected cumulative net losses. |
Table 4
Historical ratings activity--U.S. auto loan ABS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period | Upgrades | Downgrades | ||||
2015 | 177 | 0 | ||||
2016 | 357 | 0 | ||||
2017 | 322 | 0 | ||||
2018 | 335 | 2 | ||||
2019 | 432 | 5 | ||||
2020 | 332 | 8 | ||||
2021 | 579 | 0 | ||||
2022 | 416 | 6 | ||||
2023 | 396 | 6 | ||||
2024 | 313 | 11 | ||||
2025(i) | 14 | 0 | ||||
Total | 3,673 | 38 | ||||
(i)As of March. 31, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities. |
Table 5
Historical ratings activity--Canadian ABS auto loan ABS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period | Upgrades | Downgrades | ||||
2021 | 8 | 0 | ||||
2022 | 3 | 0 | ||||
2023 | 2 | 0 | ||||
2024 | 0 | 0 | ||||
2025(i) | 0 | 0 | ||||
Total | 13 | 0 | ||||
(i)As of March. 31, 2025. ABS--Asset-backed securities. |
In March we placed nine ratings on five Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions on CreditWatch negative. At the time of the CreditWatch assignment, five of the classes were rated in the 'BB' category. Also, some of the classes that were placed on CreditWatch negative had previously been upgraded by one-to-two notches. The classes D and E are the only affected classes and are from the 2021 and 2022 transactions. The CreditWatch action is a result of weaker-than-expected performance (see table 6 for more information).
In March, we reviewed two Prestige Auto Receivables Trust transactions and affirmed ratings on three classes of notes from series 2021-1. At the same time, we placed our 'BB- (sf)' rating on the class E notes from series 2024-1 on CreditWatch negative. The CreditWatch action is a result of weaker-than-expected performance observed during the first 12 months of the transaction.
Table 6
Flagship Credit Auto Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | Original ECNL | Former ECNL(i) | Revised ECNL/recent action | |||||
2021-3 | 11.00-11.50 | 12.50 | In March, placed class E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
2021-4 | 11.25-11.75 | 13.75 | In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
2022-1 | 11.25-11.75 | 15.25 | In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
2022-3 | 11.25-11.75 | 19.50 | In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
2022-4 | 11.50 | 19.25 | In March, placed classes D and E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
(i)2021-3, 2021- 4, 2022-1, and 2022-3 revised in February 2024. 2022-4 revised in May 2024 |
Table 7
World Omni Select Auto Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | Original ECNL | Former ECNL(i) | Revised ECNL(ii) | |||||
2021-A | 6.25-6.75 | 2.50 | 2.05 | |||||
2023-A | 6.25 | 4.75 | 4.00 | |||||
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 2025. |
Table 8
GLS Auto Receivables Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original ECNL | Former ECNL (i) | Revised/maintained ECNL(ii) | ||||||
2022-2 | 16.75 | 20.25 | 20.50 | |||||
2022-3 | 16.75 | 20.75 | 21.25 | |||||
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 15, 2025, distribution date. |
Table 9
Prestige Auto Receivables Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | Original ECNL | Former ECNL (i) | Revised ECNL/recent action(ii) | |||||
2021-1 | 14.50-15.50 | 18.50 | 23.25 | |||||
2024-1 | 19.25 | N/A | In March, placed class E on CreditWatch negative | |||||
(i)Revised as of March 2024. (ii)Revised as of March 2025 distribution date. N/A Not applicable |
Table 10
United Auto Credit Securitization Trust | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Series | Original ECNL | Former ECNL(i) | Revised ECNL/recent action(ii) | |||||
2022-1 | 20.50 | 24.50 | 27.50 | |||||
2023-1 | 22.25 | 25.50 | 29.25 | |||||
(i)As of March 2024. (ii)As of March 2025. CNL exp.--Cumulative net loss expectations. |
Appendix I: Auto Tracker Frequently Asked Questions
How do you define prime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize prime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of 3.25% or less and average FICO scores of 700 or higher. We include CarMax and Carvana in this segment.
How do you define subprime auto loan ABS?
We generally categorize subprime auto loan ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial ECNLs of at least 7.5%, average FICO scores of less than 620, and annual percentage rates that exceed 14.0%.
How do you calculate the monthly net loss rate?
The monthly net loss rate is annualized. It equals each transaction's net loss rate weighted by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. Transactions usually have zero or low losses during their first three months, which dilute the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly recovery rate?
We calculate recoveries by taking the recovery amount reported (which typically includes all recoveries, such as disposition proceeds, post-disposition proceeds, and any other reported recoveries) over the gross loss amount for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's recovery percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the index. We only allow a transaction to enter the index starting in its fourth month outstanding. During a transaction's first three months, unusually high or low recoveries are reported, leading to a spike in the composite figures.
How do you calculate the monthly 60-plus-day delinquency rate?
We calculate delinquencies by taking each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency amount over the ending pool balance for the current month. Then we weight each transaction's 60-plus-day delinquency percentage by the transaction's ending pool balance for the current month over the aggregate ending pool balance of all transactions included in the composite. We only allow a transaction to enter the composite starting in its fourth month outstanding. During the transaction's first three months, zero or fewer delinquencies are reported, which dilutes the composite figures.
Related Research
- Two Ratings Raised And Two Others Affirmed On United Auto Credit Securitization Trust 2022-1 And 2023-1, March 31, 2025
- Various Rating Actions Taken On Prestige Auto Receivables Trust 2021-1 And 2024-1, March 25, 2025
- Five Ratings Raised And One Affirmed From Two GLS Auto Receivables Issuer Trust Transactions, March 20, 2025
- Three Ratings Raised, Five Affirmed From World Omni Select Auto Trust Series 2021-A And 2023-A, March 14, 2025
- Nine Ratings From Five Flagship Credit Auto Trust Transactions Placed On CreditWatch Negative, March 6, 2025
- Inflation And Affordability Challenges Remain For Consumers Despite Low Unemployment, March 19, 2025
- U.S. Auto Loan ABS Tracker: Full-Year And December 2024 Performance, Feb. 13, 2025
This report does not constitute a rating action.
Primary Credit Analyst: | Amy S Martin, New York + 1 (212) 438 2538; amy.martin@spglobal.com |
Secondary Contact: | Jenna Cilento, New York + 1 (212) 438 1533; jenna.cilento@spglobal.com |
Analytical Manager: | Frank J Trick, New York + 1 (212) 438 1108; frank.trick@spglobal.com |
Research Contributors: | Siddhesh Pai, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
Manati Kathani, CRISIL Global Analytical Center, an S&P affiliate, Mumbai |
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