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CLOs' Diverse Top 30 'B-' Credits Will Face Differing Pressures In 2025

Editor's note: Data used to determine the collateralized loan obligations' Top 30 'B-' credits and all currency conversions is as of March 31, 2025. Data used to determine corporate debt to EBITDA (leverage) and interest coverage is as of April 24, 2025.

This report does not constitute a rating action.

European collateralized loan obligations' (CLOs) holdings of broadly syndicated loans (BSL) rated 'B-' were worth a total of about €40.65 billion, or about 25.8% of CLO portfolios in Europe, as of March 31, 2025. That exposure is testament to the importance of credits rated 'B-' to CLOs portfolios. Moreover, with limits dictating CLOs' exposure to 'CCC' rated credits, an understanding of the composition of CLO's exposure to the 'B-' rating sector (see chart 1) and the dynamics affecting 'B-' rated issuers is essential to the evaluation of risk and opportunity in the currently volatile financial environment.

Chart 1

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The 30 largest 'B-' rated credits, by volume of rated debt, collectively represent 52% of the total principal of 'B-' rated European CLO holdings. Analysis of the sector distribution of those holdings offers valuable insight into CLOs' exposure, which is currently led by healthcare, leisure, and software (see chart 2).

Chart 2

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The provision of a broad overview of sector risks and growth prospects, underpinned by the examination of key metrics such as debt/EBITDA (leverage) and interest coverage ratios, provides insights into the top 30 'B-'rated issuers and a forward-looking perspective on their potential performance in 2025 (see chart 3). Please note, chart 3 is based on the most recently published S&P Global Ratings'research on each issuer, up to and including the date of publication of this article, and may be severalmonths old.

Chart 3

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Healthcare And Pharma: Regulatory Pressures And Inflation

Six healthcare and pharmaceutical issuers are among European CLOs top 30 'B-' holdings. They are laboratory operators CAB, Cerba; Inovie Group; pharmaceutical group Advanz; hearing aid manufacturer WS Audiology (rated entity Auris Luxembourg II S.A.); and nursing home operator HomeVi.

The sector's outlook is gradually improving, though pockets of regulatory and cost management pressures continue to weigh unequally on some issuers. Revenue and regulatory uncertainties over the long term remain key concerns, as does the integration of past acquisitions, and ongoing labor cost inflation.

The effects of tariffs on the healthcare issuers remains very limited, as sourcing for consumables and raw materials from affected countries typically comprise only a very marginal portion of cost inputs. Labor and premises costs are more significant, while public budgets for healthcare represent a significant driver of revenues and margins. Of the issuers in this study, WS Audiology has some U.S. exposure, although anticipated volume growth should more than offset any impact from tariffs on revenues.

The U.S. represents only a small portion of revenues for Advanz and we expect it, and other pharmaceutical companies importing life-critical medicines into the U.S., can mitigate the effect of trade tariffs on profitability by passing through higher prices. In assessing U.S. tariffs' impacts on healthcare equipment manufacturers’ credit metrics, the key considerations are the life-critical and disability-treating characteristics of medical devices. Some medical devices, including hearing aids manufactured by WS Audiology, are exempt from trade tariffs.

Laboratories (i.e., Cerba, CAB, and Inovie) dominate the 'B-' healthcare exposure for CLOs. The companies, like other health care service providers, are price takers rather than price makers, so inflation remains the key challenge. Regulatory changes and tariff cuts in France seem to have settled down following the latest price agreement, negotiated in December 2024. Despite these pressures, demand for diagnostic testing (routine and specialty) remains stable and is supported by an ageing population, the shift toward preventive medicine, and cost-reduction programs that have been implemented to protect profit margins. The success and pace of those programs will be crucial to the long-term ability of the issuers to sustain their debt-burdened capital structures. Among laboratory operators, Biogroup's and Inovie's stable operations and relatively low leverage, compared to peers like Cerba, suggest they could prove resilient to the challenges facing the sector.

Nursing home operators are notably exposed to rent and labor cost inflation, which is exacerbated by the increasing cost of healthcare labor. That has, for example, weighed heavily on HomeVi's free operating cash flow (FOCF) generation after leases, which remained negative in 2024 despite gradual improvement. Thanks to its asset-rich business model, HomeVi is better placed (compared with other operators) to mitigate inflations impact on rents. Another nursing home operator, Colisee, was a prominent holding in European CLOs before mid-March 2025, when we lowered our issuer credit rating to 'CCC-' with a negative outlook, from 'B-', following a lender waiver request to defer interest payments due in April (see "Colisee Group Downgraded To 'CCC-' On Likely Distressed Exchange; Outlook Negative," March 18, 2025).

Overall, we believe medical technology companies, like WS Audiology, should prove more resistant to inflationary pressures than healthcare service provides. This is due to their pricing power, the benefits of their technological innovation, supportive macroeconomic trends support increasing sales volumes, and cost structures (which are more flexible than those of healthcare service providers). The positive outlook on the rating of WS Audiology reflects our expectation of improving credit metrics, including declining leverage due to increased profits and interest coverage progressively approaching 2.0x.

The path to lower leverage

Most healthcare and pharma companies included among the top-30 'B-' European CLO holdings have historically pursued mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to expand their footprint, optimize costs, and benefit from synergies. Cerba, CAB, and Inovieall notably pursued deals during the pandemic, when COVID 19 testing provided a profit windfall. The deals aimed to boost incremental revenue growth, increase market share versus independent lab operators, and squeeze additional profitability through procurement synergies and the sharing of best practices to improve targets' operations.

We expect HomeVi position as a leading operator in elderly care services in France and Spain, will enable it to continue to capitalize on growth opportunities. HomeVi has the highest EBITDA/interest coverage among this group of healthcare operators, but we forecast it will have negative FOCF after leases in 2025, due to its high level of capital expenditure and an increase in leasing costs resulting from its capacity expansion.

With regards to Cerba, we expect its primary focus to be cost management as M&A has been put on hold since 2024. We continue to consider Cerba's deleveraging path to be uncertain (see "Tear Sheet: Chrome HoldCo SAS," Aug. 16, 2024,) as a recovery in revenue and profitability were hampered by post pandemic conditions that affected its research division, putting pressure on cash flow generation and reducing operational flexibility to meet unforeseen events. The group's leverage of about 9-10x earnings is above the 'B-' sector's average of 7.3x.

All of the healthcare operators included in this analysis have adequate liquidity and no refinancing risks in the next two years.

Table 1

'B-' healthcare and pharmaceuticals sector metrics
2025f
Biogroup Cerba Inovie WS Audiology HomeVi Advanz
EBITDA margin (%) 30.3 23-23.5 30-30.5 18.7 21.7-22.2 26.-27
Debt to EBITDA (x) 7-7.5 9.6-10.1 8-8.5 7.2 7-7.5 8.1
EBITDA interest coverage (x) 2.6 1.8 2-2.5 1.8 3.9 1.7
f--Forecast for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025. Source S&P Global Ratings.

Technology And Telecoms: Distinct Business Models And Market Positions

Five companies from the technology and telecommunications sector stand out among the top 30 'B-' rated European CLO holdings. They are: ION Markets, which provides specialized, mission critical trading software; McAfee, a provider of consumer-focused cybersecurity, antivirus, and identity protection; Rocket Software, a mission critical infrastructure provider for database, storage and network management; Dedalus Healthcare Systems, a software provider for hospitals and laboratories; and Inetum an IT services provider.

Tariff exposure among these companies is limited as software providers have been excluded from direct charges, however secondary effects due to slower economic growth can impact software sales. For instance, McAfee’s performance is tied to personal computer sales, which underpins its primary method of acquiring new customers.

Modest revenue expectations

For 2025, we forecast moderate revenue growth of about 3%-5% , fueled by strategic initiatives like pricing increases, new product launches, and cross-selling opportunities. While 2025 revenues for McAfee are projected to decline by about 2%, we don’t expect EBITDA margins and profitability to be meaningfully affected due to disciplined cost management by the company. We note that providers of proprietary software and infrastructure on a subscription basis, including ION Markets, McAfee, Dedalus, and Rocket, benefit from recurring revenue streams that provide better revenue visibility over the next 12-18 months.

ION's mission critical software leads to highly recurring, non-cyclical revenues, and underpins its ability to pass rising costs through to customers. Furthermore, the company's significant software development capital expenditure (capex) is largely in the past, leaving it to benefit from scalable products with low incremental costs and thus strong cash generation capacity.

Inetum which provides IT services, has more variability in earnings as its business is project-based (i.e., systems integration), often labor intensive, and thus exposed to labor-related cost pressures. Our forecast of Inetum's profit margin, at 6.7%, is the lowest among the 'B-' issuers in the technology and telecoms sector. That is largely due to a local footprint that features higher operating expenses, which Inetum sees as a key differentiator against larger competitors. We also forecast Inetum's revenue growth will be the lowest among the group, at 2%-3% over 2025. That reflects modest revenue recovery in France, which is Inetum’s main market, following government budget and fiscal uncertainty over 2024, and our assumption that Inetum will not pursue M&A in the near term.

Leverage and cash flow outlooks

We expect all the companies to deleverage in 2025, although to varying magnitudes. For instance, ION Market's debt/EBITDA is unlikely to fall below 8x due to its acquisitive strategy. Similarly, Rocket Software's deleveraging is expected to leave debt to EBITDA in the low 7x range due to its ongoing acquisition strategy and debt funded dividends--though that is somewhat offset by the company’s high EBITDA margins and topline growth, which is driven by existing customers seeking to modernize their legacy IT software. We forecast Inetum's debt to EBITDA to fall to 8.6x in 2025, from 10.1x in 2024, though that remains contingent on a recovery in the French market and improved EBITDA margins. McAfee should follow a more favorable trajectory, we forecast a reduction of its leverage to about 7x over the next two years, while we anticipate Dedalus debt to EBITDA will fall to 11.4x (9.1x excluding payment-in-kind (PIK) debt).

Looking at cash flow, 'B-' technology and telecom issuers' paths vary once again, including due to the impact of interest payments and sizable capital expenditures (including R&D costs). McAfee and Inetum’s FOCF to debt stand out from their peers. We expect McAfee’s FOCF to debt to improve to about 5% in its fiscal year 2025, supported by strong profitability and despite near-term margin pressures due to investments in AI and new agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). For Inetum, we project an FOCF to debt ratio of 5.5% in 2025, a result that should reflect a decrease in one-off costs and which will continue to support a robust liquidity profile. Dedalus's FOCF generation, which was slightly negative after leases in 2024, is likely to remain weak, with generated cash flows needed to meet sizeable capex and interest payments due to its highly indebted capital structure. That leaves limited flexibility to absorb weaker operating performance.

Four of the five 'B-' TMT issuers will maintain adequate liquidity to meet short-term obligations and have no immediate debt maturities until 2027-2028. Dedalus is the exception in terms of maturities, as it has a revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in November 2026 and a term loan maturing in May 2027.

Table 2

'B-' technology and telecom sector metrics
2025f
ION McAfee Rocket Dedalus Inetum
EBITDA Margins (%) 48.4 48 47-49 16.7 6.7
Debt to EBITDA (x) 8.5 7.7 7.2-7.5 11.4 8.6
FOCF/Debt (x) 3 5.1 2.9-3.1 1.1 5.5
EBITDA interest coverage (x) 1.7 1.7 1.7 2 1.7
f--Forecast for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025.FOCF--Free operating cash flow. Source S&P Global Ratings.

Media, Entertainment, Leisure: Recovering Demand And Margin Pressure

Five issuers from the media, entertainment, and leisure sector are among the top 30 'B-' rated European CLO holdings. They are: Piolin (Parques Reunidos), a recreational park operator; Sandy, a manager of holiday parks, real estate development, and accommodation; Speedster, the parent company of car classifieds platforms; Kantar, a global data and analytics firm providing customer insights to advertisers; and Areas, a food and beverage concession caterer operating through franchise and proprietary brands.

The effect of tariffs on European-based recreational parks, such as those operated by Piolin and Sandy, are primarily indirect, with higher inflation potentially calming consumer sentiment and reducing discretionary income for leisure activities. However, a decline in travel to the U.S. due to political factors could redirect European travelers to local destinations, potentially boosting park volumes.

The companies' mixed operating performances reflects the recovery in consumer demand and targeted investments in technological advancements. The segment's common strategy is to grow revenues through increased visitor volumes, pursue strategic capital expenditure, and adopt technologies that optimize pricing and enhance operational efficiency. Rating headroom at the 'B-' level depends on issuers' ability to maintain leverage below 7x, manage margin pressures with technology and operational efficiency gains, and to generate consistent cash flow.

Piolin reported a 4% increase in revenues in 2024, driven by higher visitor numbers (including due to more days open) and investments in AI and optimized pricing strategies. Additionally, Piolin agreed the disposal of all its U.S. operations (about 30%-35% of company EBITDA) in March, 2025, with most of the proceeds earmarked for debt repayment (see "Bulletin: It Is Too Early To Determine The Credit Impact Of Piolin Bidco's Disposal Of Its U.S. Business," March 24, 2025).

We forecast that Kantar's organic revenue will grow 3%-5% in 2025, buoyed by an anticipated rebound in tech sector spending that will enhance demand for its media and data services. Kantar, in January 2025, sold its media division as part of a strategic shift to focus on data and analytics, and our revenue growth projection is applicable to the post diposal group structure. We expect Sandy will post revenue growth of 3%-4%, supported by strong pre-booking levels and higher visitor volumes. Its margin evolution remains uncertain however, due to ongoing cost pressures, particularly from the integration of Landal. Speedster's profit margin of 44.7% is the highest among the group, which otherwise has margins ranging 12%-28%. Speedster benefits from a capital-light business model focused on providing a rental car platform for holidaymakers.

The outlook for the five media, entertainment, and leisure sector companies will be determined by their ability to develop through increased spending on technology and to respond to rising demand for leisure activities.

The deleveraging path

Deleveraging among capital-intensive leisure operators is often slow due to their significant operational costs and the requirement for ongoing investment. We expect Sandy's deleveraging to be challenged by the elevated costs of the integration of Landal, likely leaving it with a leverage ratio of 7.3x to7.8x for 2025.

Speedsters' debt to EBITDA of 8.8x is the highest of the five 'B-' issuers in this sector, due to its recent acquisition of Trader Corp, which expanded its geographic reach in the automotive classifieds space. Conversely, significant operational improvements at Piolin and Kantar have stabilized their leverage at 6.4x and 7.2x, respectively.

All five companies in the media, entertainment, and leisure sector are sponsor-owned and maintain adequate liquidity, positioning them to navigate the current market challenges.

Table 3

'B-' media, entertainment, and leisure sector metrics
2025f
Piolin Sandy Speedster Kantar Areas
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.8 21-22 44.7 21.2 22.5
Debt to EBITDA (x) 6.4 7.3-7.8 8.8 7.2 5.2
EBITDA interest coverage (x) 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.9
f--Forecast for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025. Source S&P Global Ratings.

Chemicals: Headroom Amid Cyclical Demand And Cost Challenges

There are three key players within the top 30 'B-' CLO holdings: Arxada, a maker of specialty chemicals for microbial control and product performance across health, hygiene, and coatings; Rovensa, a provider of bio nutrition for sustainable agriculture, including crop protection products; and Solenis, a specialty chemicals maker for food and beverage, pulp and paper, and water treatment.

The chemicals sector faces weaker demand from key industries including automotive, housing, electronics, and agriculture. Higher energy prices in Europe compared to the U.S. can weigh on European producers' competitiveness, although it’s important to note that the production of specialty chemicals is less energy intensive than commodity chemicals. Deleveraging is likely to be delayed by resultant reduced cash flow generation, while ongoing capital expenditure could further weigh on debt reduction.

The primary impact of tariffs on this group of European specialty chemicals makers will stem from secondary effects such as potentially weakened demand from the automotive, housing, and agriculture sectors. These factors could delay deleveraging efforts due to reduced cash flow generation, which might be exacerbated by ongoing capital expenditure. However, the companies' products and local production footprint (e.g., Arxada does not produce in the U.S.) limits their reliance on raw material imports, while the specialty nature of the products provides a degree of pricing power that should enable these issuers to pass some costs through to customers.

Cautious optimism

Despite those challenges, the three issuers have maintained their rating headroom through disciplined cost management, pricing strategies that sustain volumes, and proactive refinancing. Our outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic, with anticipated improvements in financial metrics driven by a gradual market recovery. We expect Arxada to gain make market share (and launch new products) while exceptional costs resulting from its carve-out of Lonza should fall further in 2025. We expect Rovensa's ongoing initiatives to improve working capital and its cash conversation cycle to support its 2025 performance. Finally, Solenis is expected to benefit from increased volumes and cross selling opportunities.

We have assigned all the 'B-' rated top-30 chemical issuers a 'Fair' business risk profile and a negative comparable rating analysis due to their high leverage levels. Solenis is the largest player, having expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of Diversey in 2023, while Arxada is the smallest company (and recently secured a new wood protection contract).

Arxada and Rovensa report similar EBITDA margins of 18.3% and 21%, respectively, while Solenis has a lower margin of 16.9%. The higher margins for Arxada and Rovensa can be attributed to their specialty chemicals offering in biostimulants and microbial solutions, where the companies' expertise in targeting niche markets and navigating regulatory approvals have resulted in better pricing power.

Initially rated as 'B', both Rovensa and Arxada were downgraded due to aggressive financial sponsor strategies and the pursuit of consolidation opportunities within their sector, which contributed to higher leverage. This may be beneficial for growth and diversification over the longer term; however it depletes cash flow-related credit rating headroom and the companies' ability to handle short term financial disruption.

Arxada and Solenis are not cash generative, a result of their high interest burdens and recent underlying-market weakness. While Rovensa reported negative cash flow generation in the first half of fiscal 2025, w expect the group to return to neutral or slightly positive FOCF by the end of fiscal 2025, driven by neutral working capital and limited capex projected for the second half of the year. Liquidity is adequate at all three companies with no near-term debt maturities.

Table 4

'B-' chemicals sector metrics
2025f
Arxada Rovensa Solenis
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.3 21-21.5 16.9
Debt to EBITDA (x) 8.7 8-9 6.5-7
EBITDA interest coverage (x) 1.7 1..5-2 2.1
f--Forecast for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025. Source S&P Global Ratings.

Building Materials: Strained Cash Flow Generation

Four companies in the top 30 'B-'rated European CLO holdings are active in the building materials sector. They are: BME, a Netherlands-based building material distributor; Xella, a German-based producer of premium wall building materials; Stark Group, a Denmark-based business-to business (B2B) building materials distributor; and Altadia, a ceramic tile constituent manufacturer for kitchens and bathrooms.

We anticipate the direct effects of potential U.S. tariffs on European building materials issuers will be minor. However, the building materials sector could be indirectly affected by tariffs, including through weaker macroeconomic conditions, weaker business sentiment, slowing construction activity, and lower discretionary income for repairs and maintenance. (see "European Building Materials Issuers Could Withstand Potential U.S. Tariffs," March 3, 2025). We anticipate no meaningful recovery of residential markets in Western Europe. In addition to the tariffs, the main risks we see for the sector in 2025 are:

  • Persistent weak demand in Europe, especially for new builds, due to affordability constraints.
  • The failure of Germany's residential sector to show signs of recovery over the coming quarters.
  • Political uncertainty in France that could delay a residential sector recovery.

For distributors like Stark and BME, these pressures could result in further profit margin compression and increased leverage. Stark and BME operate large branch networks with relatively high fixed costs to earnings that can be a strain on cash generation. In December 2024, we lowered our ratings on BME and Stark to 'B-' from 'B'. Out of the four selected companies, only BME has a negative outlook, reflecting our expectation that it will maintain very high adjusted leverage and that negative FOCF after lease payments could rapidly consume liquidity headroom.

The building materials sector is experiencing subdued demand due to weakness in the European construction market, particularly in the new-build end-market. The resulting decline in revenues, alongside wage pressures, has led to lower EBITDA across the sector. Xella and Altadia, for instance, are quite exposed to the new-build end market and have adopted cost savings initiatives to protect their profitability and cash flows.

We consider that BME and Stark, like other building material distributors, maintain a sizable operating network, aimed at preserving their physical presence in underlying markets. While we view this in the context of an anticipated market recovery in the next couple of years, it is currently putting pressure on the distributors’ ability to maintain positive FOCF.

Diverse profit margins

We forecast Aquiles will maintain the highest profit margins in 2025, at about 19%-21%, due to effective cost management strategies, a favorable decline in raw material prices, and ongoing high prices for its products. The result has been increased profitability, despite a recent decline in sales. Our forecast for Xella's profit margin is 16%-17% for 2025. That is supported by a gradual recovery in the market, particularly in Eastern Europe, coupled with expected benefits from its efficiency improvement program and plant network optimization.

We expect Stark Group's slimmer profit margins to improve modestly, to about 4.5% to 5%, reflecting ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and a gradual recovery in demand. We forecast BME's margins to increase to about 4.8% to 5%, aligning it to Stark Group, but leaving it at the lower end of its 'B-' building sector peers.

Aquiles is the only company of the four that generates positive free operating cash flow (FOCF) after lease payments. Its adjusted leverage is broadly in line with the median for a 'B-' rating and we do not anticipate material issues on its free cash flows or liquidity profile. We see more pressure on BME’s free cash flows and liquidity and note that it has little covenant headroom on its RCF. We anticipate BME’s leverage will remain elevated in 2025, at about 10.3x-10.7x, and we expect continued negative adjusted FOCF after lease payments. Stark Group also has tight covenant headroom on its RCF, yet we anticipate that liquidity will remain adequate, despite negative adjusted FOCF after lease payments. We expect the company’s leverage will remain elevated, at above 6.5x in fiscal 2025.

We consider there to be a risk that the sector's sustained elevated leverage could lead to an unsustainable capital structure or significant liquidity deterioration due to negative FOCF. However, we expect a gradual market recovery from late 2025 to 2026, driven by an easing interest rate environment, which may support rating levels and headroom for these companies.

Germany's recently announced €500 billion infrastructure fund could create new opportunities for infrastructure end-markets, including new projects for rails, roads, and bridges. Indirectly, it could also accelerate the recovery of the residential end-market through higher GDP growth and stronger business and consumer sentiment. We believe meaningful recovery in Germany's residential market won't materialize before the end of 2025, and possibly in 2026. Xella, Stark, and BME, which have meaningful exposure to Germany, could indirectly benefit from Germany's investment program.

Table 5

'B-' building materials sector metrics
2025f
BME Xella Stark Aquiles
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.7-5.1 16-17 4.5-5 19-21
Debt to EBITDA (x) 10.3-10.7 11-12 7.9-8.2 6.5-7.5
FOCF/Debt (x) (0.2)-0.2 (1.0)-0 1.7-2.1 0.8
f--Forecast for the period ending Dec. 31, 2025. Source S&P Global Ratings.

Related Research

Primary Contact:Tia Zhang, London 44-796-667-9379;
tia.zhang2@spglobal.com
Secondary Contact:Marta Stojanova, London 44-79-6673-7531;
marta.stojanova@spglobal.com

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